Latest news with #demographics
Daily Mail
9 hours ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
San Francisco enters alarming new 'doom loop' phase
By The San Francisco Bay Area is plummeting into a concerning new 'doom loop' as the region's rapidly aging population threatens its economic stability. San Francisco is seeing an influx of older residents, resembling the demographics of Tampa and Miami, Florida, where retirees are known to flock. With the California hot spot's median age on the rise - more quickly than anywhere else in the US - worries about San Francisco's financial future have emerged. There are now less young people contributing to the economy by working, renting or simply going out, and industries across all sectors are feeling the burn. Having older residents also means many of them will be dependent on Social Security checks, increasing the federal burden in the region. And while San Francisco is facing the brunt of this unrelenting combination of factors, experts warn metros across the country are at the same risk. 'The aging thing might be the most important thing happening in American society that people aren't paying attention to enough,' urbanism expert Richard Florida, a professor at the University of Toronto, told the San Francisco Chronicle. 'And, in places like the Bay Area where everything's so expensive, it's arguably even more important.' The cost of living in San Francisco is roughly 67 percent higher than the national average, according to Rent Cafe data. Reporters from the SF Chronicle ventured to various parts of the Bay Area to gauge the extent of this economic demise. Berkeley, once a bustling neighborhood home to UC Berkeley, is now categorized as 'a retirement community' of mainly single-family homes. Despite the surrounding neighborhood, UC Berkeley's enrollment rates have been steadily increasing over the past several years, according to the university. In Sonoma County, the number of children had plunged 35 percent over the past 10 years, the outlet reported. San Francisco bars have seen an overall decline in business, as older customers generally spend less money while younger patrons have been drinking less. This alarming demographic shift in the Bay Area has been an under-estimated issue for years, but its impact was undeniable over the course of the pandemic. From 2020 to 2024, the metro's median age jumped the most out of all the country's major regions, the SF Chronicle reported. In 2020, the median age was 39, while it grew to 41 four years later. By 2055, more than half the Bay Area's nine counties will be pushing 50 years old. Meanwhile, other major regions such as Houston, Texas and Seattle, Washington have not yet seen median ages of 36 and 38 respectively. San Francisco's future is looking grim, as the area has the smallest percentage of children out of the top 20 US metros. Last year, less than 19 percent of the city's population was under 18 years old. San Francisco County is in even worse shape, with only 13.5 percent of its population being children. Less children and young people means that academic institutions will see less students and many will likely be forced to shut down, experts predict. And data shows people starting families in the city are not particularly inclined to stay there. 'It's a major trigger point,' San Francisco's chief economist Ted Egan (pictured) told the SF Chronicle. 'People bump into space limitations in a rent-controlled apartment.' Those who stay in San Francisco tend to be established property owners, generally of an older age group. This 'lock-in' effect has caused housing prices to skyrocket. The SF Chronicle reported that industries catering to older demographics - people in their 40s and beyond instead of those in their 20s and 30s - have been thriving. For instance, a clinic focused on helping people extend their lifespans in South San Francisco charges patients $19,000 a year for its services. But in the years to come, industries serving the elderly could also face road bumps. Older individuals will need senior living facilities and home health aides, which may be difficult to accomplish in a place with high construction costs and a shortage of skilled caregivers.
ABC News
6 days ago
- Business
- ABC News
Australia's fertility rate picks up slightly
Australia has had a small bounce-back in its fertility rate, according to data analysis by KPMG.
BBC News
6 days ago
- Politics
- BBC News
Pembrokeshire 'haemorrhaging' young people amid pupil decline
A county's young people are "haemorrhaging away" from the area amid concerns about dwindling rural populations, a former council leader has warned. Pembrokeshire's schools have seen pupil numbers fall by more than 2,000 since 1996 and the council is planning to consult on closing two others. Councillor John Davies said the trend was "unsustainable", with schools getting emptier but doctors' surgeries getting more crowded. The Welsh government said it recognised the challenge of demographic change and was continuing to monitor trends. Davies is part of a working group looking at the future of Pembrokeshire's schools. Council figures show the number of primary school pupils in the Preseli area had fallen by 19% between 2015 and 2024 and 6.6% in Tenby over the same said: "For the first time in 30 years we're spending more on social care than we are on education. The demographics are becoming an unsustainable challenge."Davies said investment in rural areas needed to happen "sooner rather than later" and could be a "catalyst for economic renewal". "We're seeing investment in town regeneration and cities, and we've seen investment in rail infrastructure in south-east wales. "But there's never a mention of what's happening in investment terms in rural north Pembrokeshire or not even in west Wales."He warned rural areas could face decline similar to that experienced by industrial communities in south Wales in the 1980s. Pembrokeshire council is consulting on closing Ysgol Clydau in Tegryn and Manorbier VC School in Tenby. Caroline Farnden's two children are among 34 pupils at the Ysgol Clydau, and she said she lived in fear at its possible closure. "You'll lose the community feel because it's taking everything out of the community," she said."What else are they going to do? Are they going to close the hall as well? The pub? There'll be nothing for people in the village."Fellow parent Steven Chambers said the closure would only accelerate the trend of an ageing population, discouraging younger families from moving in. Welsh government projections show the number of pupils could drop by almost 50,000 across the country by 2040. In Pembrokeshire, numbers have fallen 12% since 1996 and a further 11.7% fall in the population aged 15 and under is predicted over the next 10 to 15 years. Carmarthenshire council confirmed it had 17 schools with fewer than 50 pupils. Laura Doel of the school leaders' union NAHT said: "When birth rates fall and families move in search of employment opportunities, this inevitably has an impact upon school rolls. "With funding allocated on a per pupil basis, this further reduces school budgets which are already under severe pressure after years of under-investment." Amanda Hill-Dixon, of the Wales Centre for Public Policy, said the age profile of rural areas was "really changing". "So what we have in rural Wales is younger people, and families and children moving out of rural Wales to cities in Wales or outside of Wales altogether," she said. "And then there's in migration of older people to Wales, and especially to rural Wales."She said there were a "range of implications" for public services, culture and language, with more spending needed on health and social care, leaving less for children's services and schools. "We can get into a doom loop where, because there's fewer services for children and families and young people, children and families don't want to stay in that area, and children and families don't want to move to that area." She said a population taskforce, like one taken up by the Scottish government in 2019, may be needed in monitoring the trends of demographic changes, the Welsh government said local authorities had to comply with the School Organisation Code when proposing "significant changes to schools", which includes a presumption against the closure of rural schools.
CBC
15-07-2025
- Business
- CBC
Alberta population projected to get bigger, older by 2051
The province's office of statistics and information predicts Alberta will add roughly two million residents over the next 25 years. A recent report also projects the average age will increase by more than four years.
Forbes
13-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Will China's Demographics Constrain Its Foreign Policy?
Deputies from the People's Liberation Army arrive together at the National Peoples Congress at the ... More Great Hall of the People. Much has been written about China's sharp demographic shift, but less attention has been paid to how this might affect—or even constrain—its international behavior. Let me highlight a few key themes. To begin, the nature of the demographic shift is pronounced. I have previously written on China's limited response to the problem as well as the ongoing deterioration that makes the issue cumulative. In other words, the situation is worsening and government efforts to mitigate it have largely fallen short. The data are stark: in 2024, China's total fertility rate stood at approximately 1.1, roughly half the 2.1 replacement level required for population stability. Similarly, the population declined by around 2 million in 2023. Admittedly, that figure is modest in the context of a population of 1.4 billion, but the longer-term trend is sobering: Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences—not known for pessimism—projects a low-end scenario in which China's population falls to 525 million by 2100. This is a pronounced downward trend, but what is the significance? What does it matter if China's population drops by more than 50%? In terms of China's economy, much or all of that decline will be offset by automation and workforce upgrades. Ironically, despite this demographic headwind, China's economy is still expected to perform reasonably well in the near term. So the population decline might not be consequential on its own—and perhaps not economically meaningful in the short run—but could it influence China's foreign policy? Let's explore four possible implications: 1. Military recruitment The U.S. Defense Department estimates the People's Liberation Army at over 2 million uniformed personnel. This points to a double crunch: first, China will need to increase recruitment incentives as the youth population shrinks. Second, a more tech-oriented military means it must offer salaries that outpace those in the private sector. PLA requirements will not be met by simply recruiting average high school graduates. Why should a talented young coder join the military when the private sector pays more? 2. Military budget As personnel costs rise faster than procurement costs, China is likely to face a crowding-out effect—more money for people means less for equipment. This is one reason the PLA is investing heavily in drones and cyberwarfare. If China can disable Taiwan's banking system, internet, and power grid, then a new aircraft carrier becomes less urgent. Cyber capabilities won't replace traditional military assets entirely, but they allow the PLA to balance tech and conventional force projection more effectively. 3. The near abroad Demographic pressures in China must be considered alongside similar trends in East Asia. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are experiencing even steeper population declines. Projecting a strategic disadvantage for China based on shrinking demographics overlooks this regional context. 4. PLA doctrine Perhaps the most important reason demographic disruption won't produce immediate changes in international behavior is the enduring nature of PLA doctrine. The PLA views its mission as protecting China's sovereignty, and it believes this can only be achieved by maintaining military superiority over its neighbors. This has become something of a state religion—as much a matter of ideology as of strategy. The PLA's appetite for growth appears open-ended. It may take decades of population decline before this changes. In sum, China's population shrinkage has profound implications. It raises questions about how citizens accept government messaging around prosperity and progress. But in foreign policy, constraints may not be immediate. Still, the nature of China's international behavior and military engagement could evolve in subtle ways under the weight of demographic pressure. Ever so slightly, an increase in costs and a decrease in options could constrain behavior over the long run.
