Latest news with #economicDecline
News.com.au
01-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Economist claims recession is ‘not the vibe' in the US
Economist and author James Rickards discusses the lowering of interest rates, claiming they are a sign of recession. This comes amid fears the US could be in economic decline. 'I don't think that's the vibe, that's my own analysis, and there are a lot of indicators that point to that, and cutting rates doesn't matter,' Mr Rickards told Sky News host Ed Boyd. 'Low interest rates are associated with recession and depression – the idea that we'll cut the interest rates and stimulate the economy is nonsense. 'When your economy is going well, and your real growth is, say, 3 or 4 per cent and a little bit of inflation on top of that … that means people are borrowing, they're lending, they're spending, they're investing, businesses are expanding.'
Washington Post
20-05-2025
- Business
- Washington Post
Argentina is learning from history. The U.S. risks repeating it.
Ross Levine is the Booth Derbas Family/Edward Lazear Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Call it the Great Reversal. The United States is drifting toward the interventionist policy mix behind Argentina's economic decline just as Argentina is embracing the free-market playbook that powered America's success. While Argentina's choice is laudable and promising, the trajectory the U.S. has chosen could lead to serious decline and should be reversed as quickly as possible.
Arab News
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Kenya is ‘in total disarray': opposition candidate Martha Karua
NAIROBI: Martha Karua, among the first to declare a run for the Kenyan presidency in 2027, told AFP the country is in 'total disarray' due to corruption, police killings and economic decline. Karua served in government in the 2000s and, as a lawyer, has lately represented jailed opposition figures in neighboring Tanzania and Uganda. She hopes to harness the 'anger and frustration' against Kenya's President William Ruto, which spilt onto the streets last year in mass protests against tax rises and corruption. 'We are in total disarray. It's as if our constitution has been suspended,' she told AFP in an interview in Nairobi. 'We have abductions, arbitrary arrests... extrajudicial killings... And the police and authorities fail to take responsibility.' Rights groups say at least 60 people were killed during the protests in June and July, and at least 89 abducted since then, with 29 still missing. Police deny involvement, but there has been limited progress in investigating the incidents. 'Ruto was a great mistake right from the start. Those of us who have worked with him and know him, knew that he would be a disaster,' said Karua. A spokesman for the presidency said abductions and killings were strictly a police matter. Karua ran against Ruto in the 2022 election as the vice presidential candidate on a ticket with veteran leader Raila Odinga. She is now part of a broad grouping of opposition figures manoeuvring for the next vote in 2027. Her first priority would be to 'plug the leakages' and bring Kenya's debt under control, she said. Massive borrowing has left Kenya with some $85 billion in debt, forcing it to pay more in interest payments than it does on health and education. 'Fighting corruption is the only lifeline we have,' Karua told AFP. '(Otherwise) whatever we collect, whatever we borrow, will still be lost and we will never be able to pull Kenyans out of their misery.' Karua was justice minister in the mid-2000s under late president Mwai Kibaki. She said that government had led a successful push against corruption, though admitted that it 'did come back toward the end.' Karua resigned from that government in 2009, accusing some of her colleagues of opposing reforms. Now, Karua finds herself aligned with several opposition figures that have shady reputations. When asked, she did not deny it, but said: 'The task of dislodging a government that does not play by the rules is a mammoth task. We need all hands.' She added it was up to the public to choose 'the most competent and suitable' to lead the opposition into the election. Karua worries about unrest and rigging in 2027, however. Previous elections have been marred by extreme violence. Ruto himself was charged by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity over violence that erupted after the 2007 vote. The case was eventually dropped for lack of evidence, with the court citing witness intimidation and political meddling. Karua accused Ruto of hiring gangs of 'thugs' for a recent rally in Nairobi — to 'sort out anybody who appears to either boo or jeer' — which led to huge numbers of muggings and violent attacks on passers-by. 'I know it will get worse. They will use public coffers at the expense of vital services like health, education and security,' she said. The presidency spokesman said Ruto 'never hires or pays people to attend his public meetings.' 'Martha Karua and her team created a similar lie in the run up to the last election,' the spokesman said. 'They lost it because they believed in their own lies. They are headed for a similar and more resounding defeat.' But Karua claimed the president will make the upcoming election 'nasty.' 'The only way we can overcome Ruto's manipulation of the electoral system is to have a flood of votes, overwhelming numbers which no amount of manipulation can work on,' she said.
Zawya
08-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
US worker productivity declines in first quarter
U.S. worker productivity dropped in the first quarter for the first time in nearly three years, resulting in a surge in labor costs that could squeeze margins for businesses at a time when they are facing rising costs from tariffs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, fell at a 0.8% annualized rate last quarter, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. That was the first decline since the second quarter of 2022 and followed an upwardly revised 1.7% growth pace in the October-December quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast productivity declining at a 0.7% pace following a previously reported 1.5% growth rate. Productivity grew at a 1.4% rate from a year ago. The drop in productivity was flagged by the government's advanced gross domestic product report for the first quarter published last week, which showed the economy contracting at a 0.3% annualized rate, the first decline in three years. The economy was swamped by a flood of imports as businesses rushed to bring in goods before President Donald Trump's tariffs kicked in. The sweeping tariffs, including 145% duties on Chinese imports, are seen raising costs for businesses. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - jumped at a 5.7% rate in the first quarter after rising at a downwardly revised 2.0% rate in the October-December. Economists had forecast labor costs accelerating at a 5.1% rate after advancing at a previously reported 2.2% pace. Labor costs increased at a 1.3% rate from a year ago. Hourly compensation shot up at a 4.8% rate after advancing at 3.7% pace in the prior quarter. It grew at a 2.7% rate from a year ago. The labor market is slowing and is not regarded by policymakers as a significant source of inflation. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept it benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but said it "judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen." The U.S. central bank has a 2% inflation target.
Daily Mail
07-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Economy's weakness signals likely interest rate cut this week
Financial markets expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates on Thursday after fresh data showed further deterioration in the health of the economy. Britain's crucial services sector, which plays an outsized role in the overall economy, shrank in April for the first time since October 2023 and at the fastest pace in more than two years, according to S&P Global data. The S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 49 last month from March's 52.5, the steepest pace of decline since January 2023, as both new orders and employment fell sharply and cost pressures increased. Britain's services sector, which is responsible for more than 80 per cent of the country's economic output and employment, cited growing labour costs associated with the Autumn Budget after cutting back on hiring for the seventh consecutive month. Economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence Tim Moore also noted 'heightened business uncertainty' and 'the impact of global financial market turbulence in the wake of US tariff announcements'. The reading cemented investors bets on another BoE base rate cut of 25 basis points later this week, taking the rate from 4.5 to 4.25 per cent, as the bank is forced to respond to waning economic strength. It came as separate data from Which? showed consumer confidence in the future of the UK economy plummeted to its weakest level since the height of the cost-of-living crisis. The Which? Consumer Insight Tracker reveals 64 per cent of consumers now believe the economy will get worse before it gets better. It follows a PMI survey last week that showed British manufacturers saw export orders fall at the sharpest pace since May 2020, in April. The International Monetary Fund last month cut its forecast for British economic growth in 2025 to 1.1 per cent from a previous estimate of 1.6 per cent. The BoE is expected to respond to slowing economic output with more rate cuts, despite inflation remaining above its 2 per cent target at 2.6 per cent in March. Developed markets economist, UK, at ING, James Smith expects services inflation, which remains well above target at 4.7 per cent, 'should start to come noticeably lower later this quarter'. He said: 'That should enable the Bank to become more relaxed about inflation by the Autumn. At the end of last year, our view was that this would enable the Bank to speed up the pace of cuts, just as markets are starting to price.' 'The messaging from officials so far this year has made us less convinced of that, and instead, we think the path of least resistance is for the Bank to keep cutting rates once per quarter. 'That process could, however, continue for longer than markets are now pricing. We think bank rate will fall to 3.25 per cent by mid-2026 and possibly even a little lower than that.' Want more stories like this from the Daily Mail? Hit the follow button above for more of the news you need.
