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New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Alejandro Kirk, Jo Adell and more top fantasy baseball waiver wire adds
Welcome to this week's waiver report. We'll get into some lesser-rostered names in a moment, but first, let's knock out the latest most-added hitters list, per Yahoo. The only names not listed here (due to the lack of a stat line) are Giancarlo Stanton and Roman Anthony. Stanton is on the way back from his latest IL sabbatical, and Anthony, baseball's most hyped prospect, just got called up. If he's somehow still available in your league, stop reading and pick him up now. That's true for a few of this week's most added hitters as well: This list is a reminder that stars have bad months, too. Marcus Semien had a terrible start to the season, but he's smoothing out the stat line with a hot stretch. It's a similar, if less dramatic story for Ian Happ and Jordan Westburg, the latter of whom just came back from the IL. All should be rostered across the board. Advertisement I've been out on Trevor Story (and convinced he's in perpetual danger of turning into a backup), but he's more useful than I've given him credit for. He still steals bases, and he has his best barrel rate this year since 2022. The 30% strikeout rate caps his production, but there's a spot for him in 12-teamers and deeper. Once Alex Bregman comes back, he could start to lose playing time if Boston's rookies are performing. While we're on Red Sox infielders whose playing time is secure until it isn't, Abraham Toro has provided some surprising relief for Boston's corner infield woes, but you should sell high if someone wants to pay for what he's doing now. The contact skills are real, and he covers for unimpressive raw power with a high pull rate, but he's fairly BABIP dependent and won't help you with steals. Alejandro Kirk and Austin Wells are probably both rostered in your league, but if they aren't, they can perk up your catching situation. Wells is a classic low-average, big-power catcher, hitting near the back of a good lineup (which means fewer PAs, but with opportunities to jog home after an Aaron Judge homer). Kirk might be amid a breakout. He has always made good contact, but this year he is swinging harder, and he's being rewarded with a higher BABIP, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Zach McKinstry is chasing a bit less, but most of the goodness is just from BABIP luck. He's helpful in deep leagues, but he's not a long-term answer in 12-teamers or shallower ones. Jeff McNeil is kind of a better version of McKinstry. He's been great since his late start to the season. He'll chip in across the board, but the recent power surge is likely just luck. I've been interested in Jo Adell for a while because he's a Statcast monster, and now we're getting a glimpse of who he could be with a little more contact. It's probably just a hot streak, but maybe he's doing a reverse-Kirk and trading bat speed for contact. Advertisement Evan Carter has still only amassed half a season's worth of games in his MLB career, and it's not especially clear who he is yet. The speed is elite, so if he can get enough going on the hitting side, the potential value is at least a top 50 outfielder. He has already hit a ball harder this year than he has in his other MLB stints. Playing time is not guaranteed, but if he's hitting, he should be a regular. I'm skipping over the players in the 40-50% rostered range, many of whom were covered last week. Also, these players are not listed in an exact order of preference, because at this depth, you're often shopping for need. Tyler O'Neill (OF, BAL): He's on a rehab assignment and has massive power upside. Kyle Stowers (OF, MIA): Lots of power, lots of whiffs, and it seems pitchers are adjusting to him by throwing fewer fastballs. Still, he's worth snapping up in 12-teamers and deeper, because there's a decent chance he snaps out of this funk and goes back to mashing. Sal Frelick (OF, MIL): Limited playing time against lefties and very little power, but he gives you something to work with in average and speed. He's borderline in 12-teamers with five OF slots, and useful in deeper leagues. Alec Burleson (1B/OF, STL): I'm throwing him in because, at this point, you might be looking for some steady, boring production. The batting average will come down a notch, but he can still help you there. Lane Thomas (OF, CLE): Last year, he was as good a fantasy player as an average hitter can be. This year, he's a total dart throw. He's not playing every day and hasn't been good when he has. He was a huge value in 2023 and 2024, but it's not clear when the previous version will reemerge. Jorge Polanco (2B/3B, SEA): He went ice cold in May with a .155 BABIP, but he has started to hit again. He's still deep-league worthy and can produce enough for 12-teamers in need going forward. Advertisement Jose Caballero (SS/OF/3B, TB): One of the rare players who steals enough to make up for the void in his other categories. He's more gettable now after a cold week. Chase Meidroth (SS/2B, CHW): If he were a little faster, he could be incredible because he never swings and misses. The real version is still a solid three-category contributor who can boost your average. Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH): He's back from the IL and worth snapping up where you can. His power in that park in the summer could lead to a lot of dingers. Miguel Vargas (1B/3B, CHW): I don't see a ton of room for projection beyond what he's doing now unless he can increase his raw power, but he provides a 20-homer pace at a .240 average, which is decent filler depending on your depth. Gavin Sheets (1B/OF, SDP): Puts up a similar stat line to Vargas but with a better power ceiling and more swing-and-miss. Sheets is the more fun option here, because he's more likely to go off for a couple of weeks. These guys can help you out in deep leagues or an injury crunch, and some have serious potential. Jordan Beck (OF, COL): He cooled off from his crazy start, but this is still power and speed leading off in Colorado. Parker Meadows (OF, DET): He's done next to nothing since returning, but that looks like small-sample noise. He should provide plenty of deep-league value and will likely be 12-team relevant before too long. Evan Carter (OF, TEX): (see above) Michael Conforto (OF, LAD): He's hitting the ball hard and ought to get rewarded for it at some point. He feels like a player who will eventually heat up and bring the overall stat line more in line with expectations. Colt Keith (2B, DET): The expected stats say there is another level here. I'm still intrigued. Advertisement Brett Baty (2B/3B, NYM): Another former top prospect who is starting to figure it out. The bat speed is near the top of the league, which gives him breakout potential. If you buy the x-stats, he's a masher. Otto Lopez (2B, MIA): The x-stats love Lopez too, and he comes with a good dose of speed. He has limited power, but otherwise, he has plenty to offer. Josh Smith (SS/1B/3B, TEX): Leading off on most days and providing modest five-category production. Carlos Santana (1B, CLE): The definition of boring and solid. Ty France (1B, MIN): Also boring and solid, with some modest power upside. He sprays the ball, which means more hits, but fewer of them leave the yard. Michael Toglia (1B/OF, COL): I was very excited about him in the preseason — huge power plus some steals in Colorado? Yes, please — but he whiffs a ton, and that caught up with him this season. Now he's tearing up Triple A. He's a dart throw at this point, but there is still lots of season left for him to pull it together. Roman Anthony was the big call-up, and hopefully, the few of you who are in leagues where he hasn't been picked up yet have fixed that before reading this far. Jacob Misiorowski (SP, MIL): Expect lots of strikeouts and walks. He makes me nervous, and long term, he might be a (really good) reliever, but if you're in a deep league or have a rotation decimated by injuries, he's worth a shot. The upside is very high. Otto Kemp (1B/3B, PHI): Kemp is getting his first taste of MLB action a few months before his 26th birthday. He thrashed Triple A this year and last, and has good power-speed upside. Even in the minors, he had lots of swing-and-miss, so that could be an issue in the bigs. With Bryce Harper out, Kemp should get a long look. Will Robertson (OF, TOR): Robertson is 27 and wasn't especially interesting for fantasy purposes until this year, when he found a new power level. With plenty of health concerns in the Blue Jays' outfield, he will get a chance to see if he can hit MLB pitching, at least against righties. He's a deep leaguer for now, but you can dream on more. Sean Manaea (NYM); Landen Roupp (SFG); Chad Patrick (MIL); Mitch Keller (PIT); Cade Horton (CHC); Bubba Chandler (PIT) Manaea has progressed to rehab games and is a great IL stash. Roupp continues to be a quiet value. With so many injuries to pitchers, he's worth rostering in 12-teamers and deeper. Patrick has overperformed his peripheral stats, but not to a dramatic degree. He's one of those guys I like a little more than the numbers suggest I should. Keller is more volatile, but he has been a bit unlucky in terms of stranding runners. I'm reluctantly interested in leagues of 14 teams and deeper. Horton was striking out 30% of opposing batters in the minors, so there's some upside to dream on. And Chandler has to be up sometime soon, right? Please? Advertisement We're fully in deep-league territory here. Strikeout rates above 20% and ERAs below 4.00 are not easily found at this point. José Soriano (LAA); Quinn Priester (MIL); Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET); Adrian Houser (CHW); David Festa (MIN) Soriano has some interesting ingredients, and he just threw a gem against the A's (which followed a clunker in Boston). The K-BB% isn't great, but there's some room to dream here. Priester is a low-strikeout, high-ground ball pitcher who can get forgotten in fantasy, but he provides plenty of value in the right build. Gipson-Long was mentioned last week, and he's looked good in his first starts back. Festa melted down against the A's recently, but I still like the upside. Houser … look, I'm making zero promises here, but he changed his pitch mix and has been getting more whiffs this year. He's been lucky so far, but even the peripheral stats still show a decent pitcher. There are not too many closers who are still widely available, but Daniel Palencia (CHC) is still out there in most leagues. His teammate Ryan Pressly has been sharp as well, and he could reclaim the job if Valencia falters. Tommy Kahnle (DET) seems to be the second option behind Will Vest, but he will still get the ninth sometimes. I'll also note Randy Rodríguez (SFG) hasn't given up a run in a month and is as dominant as any reliever right now. He's great for your ratios, and he might leapfrog Ryan Walker if Camilo Doval hits a rough stretch. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. (Top photo of Jo Adell: Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
New York Times
15-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball bullpen report featuring slumping closers Jeff Hoffman, Raisel Iglesias
After each week passes, more changes present themselves across the high-leverage ecosystem. Texas had two relievers suffer an injury in consecutive days, though it's being reported neither is serious — fantasy managers make preparations in case the news cycle shifts. Last week's closer concern from the National League (Ryan Pressly) has been working in lower-leverage outings but has not regained his lost closer title. Advertisement Relievers in Miami, Pittsburgh and Arizona have been repositioned in my leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels: Mostly linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it's usually a predictable leverage pathway. Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in matchup-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season. Matchup-based: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes, based on handedness, rest or recent usage patterns to keep them fresh. While these situations typically rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can also become involved. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, which creates fluid save opportunities. In-flux: The manager has not confirmed the projected closer based on past struggles or rough spring appearances. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. Yariel Rodríguez (TOR): He owns a four-game scoreless streak, with holds in three. He recorded 10 strikeouts (52.6% K-BB) over his 5.2 innings with a minuscule 0.351 WHIP. Mason Montgomery (TB): He posted his first career save and has three holds in his past 5.2 innings, with seven strikeouts against two walks (25% K-BB), a 0.71 WHIP, and a 15.7 SwStr%. Advertisement Jeff Hoffman (TOR): After a tremendous start to the season, results have gone sideways for the closer. It's been a tale of two splits for him: Including his recent meltdowns, he has recorded 19.1 innings this season with a 6.05 ERA but a 1.62 SIERA and a 2.04 xERA. His .357 BABIP sits 79 points above last year. His underlying metrics remain stable compared to the previous two seasons: His contract and pedigree should ensure his role, but migrating his upcoming results toward his SIERA and xERA needs to occur. Focus on his results with the split finger and slider. Jordan Romano (PHI): He's converted saves in consecutive appearances and three of his past six (all scoreless efforts), while recording a 0.50 WHIP with eight strikeouts (38.1 K-BB%) across six innings. After undergoing a rough patch earlier this season, he has found a rhythm with his new team and has earned a larger save share. Jesús Tinoco (MIA): After missing time on the injured list in April, he's wrested away the primary save share with the Marlins, converting two of his past three chances and four saves total this season. There will be bumps in the road and some lean weeks, but if he's emerging as the closer under Clayton McCullough, there's value in mixed leagues of 12 teams or more. Raisel Iglesias (ATL): Contact, specifically quality of contact, has not been his friend this season. Through his first 17 appearances, he owns a 6.05 ERA with a 2.93 SIERA and a 5.72 xERA. This represents a broad band of potential outcomes in his underlying data. Because xERA factors in type of contact, it's crucial for fantasy managers to take a look under the hood, beginning with his rolling expected wOBA chart: He's allowed 49 batted ball events this season, with a 28.6 LD% — more than nine percentage points higher than last season. Of more significant concern, he's given up eight barrels, causing a disparity between the types of contact produced: Last year, he finished with 14.3% poor contact induced, while allowing 7.4% good contact. He's already given up six home runs (four on his slider) and allowed multiple hits in five of his past eight appearances. Fantasy managers hope his ERA trends toward his SIERA, not his xERA, but the contact allowed must improve. Advertisement Emilio Pagán (CIN): He's allowed at least a run in three of his past four appearances and four of his past seven. This may finish his regression toward the mean since his SIERA (3.32) and his xERA (3.64) both reside below his actual ERA (4.05). There have been gaps of inconsistency throughout his career, which makes trusting him difficult. However, he's been solid this year, and his rolling graph provides hope, but results must follow for him to remain in the ninth inning for the Reds: *Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. Statistical Credits (through games played on May 14): and Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates. (Photo of Jeff Hoffman: Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)
