Latest news with #globaluncertainty
News.com.au
11 hours ago
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Unusual' thing happening to the Aussie dollar in wake of Trump tariffs, says Reserve Bank
The global uncertainty sparked by US President Donald Trump's tariff agenda has resulted in something unusual happening to the Australian dollar. RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter noted on Tuesday that the Aussie dollar has been behaving differently against the greenback than what we would historically expect. 'When the outlook for global growth weakens, the Australian dollar typically depreciates,' she explained in a speech at the Economic Society of Australia Business Lunch in Brisbane. This is because investors expect the Australian economy 'to be buffeted by the global headwinds and the RBA to respond with cuts to the cash rate'. The fact that the Australian dollar is a 'risk-sensitive' currency also contributes to the depreciation as 'when global investors are worried, they tend to focus on reducing risk exposure, moving their capital to low-risk assets in countries like the United States, Switzerland and Japan.' 'This means the Australian dollar tends to lose value against these currencies,' she said. When Trump announced his global 'Liberation Day' tariffs the Aussie dollar did as expected and fell, plummeting to below 60 US cents for the first time since the pandemic. However in recent weeks, the Aussie has recovered against the greenback and has been sitting between 64 and 65 US cents which, according to Dr Hunter, is 'more unusual' in a continuing time of uncertainty. Dr Hunter said this is in part due to a broad weakness in the USD after some global investors reduced their exposure to US assets. 'The weakness in the US dollar during a period of heightened risk is in contrast with many previous episodes,' she said, 'though it's too early to know whether this dynamic will continue.'
News.com.au
21 hours ago
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Not time': Why the RBA took a cautious approach to rate cuts
Global uncertainty on the back of the US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and a weakening Australian economy saw the Reserve Bank of Australia debate an outsized rate cut last month. Minutes from the RBA's May 20 policy meeting show the central bank is still nervous about the impact of Mr Trump's trade policy but wants to move 'cautiously and predictably' in line with market expectations. As such, households were not given an outsized 'insurance against global growth' 50 basis point rate cut. Instead, the bank highlighted the need for monetary policy settings to remain 'predictable at a time of heightened uncertainty'. 'They agreed that developments in the domestic economy on their own justified a reduction in the cash rate target and that the case for that action was strengthened by developments in global trade policy,' the minutes reveal. Ultimately though, the board agreed the case for a 25 basis point rate cut was 'the stronger one' as members were not persuaded that weakening global growth and domestic factors warranted an outsized rate cut. In a silver lining for households, should the impacts of global uncertainty materialise, the RBA board agreed it would need to move to 'expansionary settings' meaning there would be more cuts to the cash rate. The board judged in May however that there was not enough data around the impacts of any global uncertainty to switch to a more expansive monetary policy setting. 'They also judged it was not yet time to move monetary policy to an expansionary stance, taking account of the range of estimates involved, given that inflation was yet to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target range and the staff's assessment that the labour market was still tight,' the minutes read. The board also highlighted they had the firepower left to kickstart global growth should the worst of global uncertainty impact the local economy. 'In finalising the policy statement, members agreed that it was appropriate to convey their commitment to both of the Board's objectives,' the board said. 'They also agreed to convey that policy was well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation of the kind described in the severe downside scenario set out in the May Statement on Monetary Policy.' Meeting for the second time under its new dual-board structure, the RBA cut the national cash rate by 25 basis points, from 4.10 to 3.85 per cent, but RBA governor Michele Bullock revealed a 50 basis point cut had been debated. 'There was an argument and we did debate it (a 50 basis point cut) but it wasn't the strongest argument in the room,' Ms Bullock said at the time. She stressed 'inflation hurts everyone', particularly those on lower incomes and renters. Responding to a question from NewsWire on whether households could expect further relief, and what message she had for those doing it tough, she acknowledged Australians had gone through a 'really rough few years', accentuated by sharp rises in everyday prices. 'I would say that bringing inflation down is the best thing we can do to help them, while keeping employment strong,' she said. 'At the moment we are on track to deliver that. I know you're doing it tough, but conditions are improving.'
Economy ME
6 days ago
- Business
- Economy ME
Global uncertainty exceptionally high as chief economists concerned about trade shocks, AI disruption: WEF
The global economic outlook has deteriorated since the beginning of the year, as rising economic nationalism and tariff volatility contribute to uncertainty and threaten to stall long-term decision-making, according to a recent report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) . The latest Chief Economists Outlook reveals that a substantial majority (79 percent) of surveyed economists interpret the current geoeconomic developments as indications of a significant structural shift in the global economy rather than as a temporary disruption. 'Policymakers and business leaders must respond to heightened uncertainty and trade tensions with greater coordination, strategic agility, and investment in the growth potential of transformative technologies like artificial intelligence,' stated Saadia Zahidi, managing director of the World Economic Forum. 'These steps are essential for navigating today's economic headwinds and securing long-term resilience and growth.' High levels of global uncertainty Global uncertainty is considered exceptionally high by 82 percent of chief economists. While a slim majority (56 percent) anticipate conditions to improve over the next year, concerns remain prevalent. Nearly all chief economists (97 percent) identify trade policy as one of the areas of highest uncertainty, followed by monetary policy (49 percent) and fiscal policy (35 percent). This uncertainty is expected to adversely affect key economic indicators, including trade volumes (70 percent), GDP growth (68 percent), and foreign direct investment (62 percent). Most chief economists (87 percent) predict that businesses will react to uncertainty by postponing strategic decisions, which increases recession risks. Debt sustainability is also a growing concern, cited by 74 percent of respondents for both advanced and developing economies. An overwhelming majority (86 percent) expect governments to address rising defense spending needs through increased borrowing, potentially crowding out investments in public services and infrastructure. In early April, during the height of uncertainty, most chief economists (77 percent) anticipated weak or very weak growth through 2025 in the U.S., along with high inflation (79 percent) and a weakening dollar (76 percent). In contrast, they expressed cautious optimism regarding Europe's prospects for the first time in years, primarily due to expectations of fiscal expansion, particularly in Germany. The outlook for China remains subdued, with chief economists divided on whether it will achieve its target of 5 percent GDP growth this year. Optimism is strongest for South Asia, where 33 percent expect robust or very robust growth this year. Read more: Global economy to strengthen this year, but growth uneven: World Economic Forum report AI's economic impact Artificial intelligence is set to drive the next wave of economic transformation, unlocking considerable growth potential but also introducing significant risks. Nearly half (46 percent) of chief economists anticipate AI will provide a modest global real GDP boost of 0-5 percentage points over the next decade, while an additional 35 percent project gains of 5-10 percentage points. Key growth drivers include task automation (68 percent), accelerated innovation (62 percent), and worker augmentation (49 percent). Despite the potential, concerns remain: 47 percent expect net job losses over the next decade, compared to just 19 percent who foresee gains. Above all, respondents emphasized the misuse of AI for disinformation and societal destabilization as the primary risk to the economy (53 percent). Other significant risks include the rising concentration of market power (47 percent) and the disruption of existing business models (44 percent). To fully capitalize on AI's potential, chief economists underscored the necessity for bold action from both governments and businesses. For governments, top priorities include investing in AI infrastructure (89 percent), promoting adoption across key industries (86 percent), facilitating AI talent mobility (80 percent), and investing in upskilling and redeployment (75 percent). For businesses, the focus is on adapting core processes to integrate AI (95 percent), reskilling employees (91 percent), and training leadership to guide AI-driven transformation (83 percent).
The National
24-05-2025
- Business
- The National
Shadi's take on Trump administration barring international students from Harvard
Global events: Much of the UK's economic woes were blamed on 'increased global uncertainty', which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump's tariffs. Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise '£6.5bn per year' for the public purse Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances Director: Zoya Akhtar Producer: Excel Entertainment & Tiger Baby Cast: Ranveer Singh, Alia Bhatt, Kalki Koechlin, Siddhant Chaturvedi Rating: 4/5 stars Friday (all kick-offs UAE time) Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (10.30pm) Saturday Freiburg v Werder Bremen (5.30pm) Paderborn v Hoffenheim (5.30pm) Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm) Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen (5.30pm) Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm) Sunday Schalke v Augsburg (3.30pm) Mainz v RB Leipzig (5.30pm) Cologne v Fortuna Dusseldorf (8pm) Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine Power: 420kW Torque: 780Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Price: From Dh1,350,000 On sale: Available for preorder now Director: Jafar Panahi Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr Rating: 4/5 Sand storm Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand Duration: Short-lived, typically localised Travel distance: Limited Source: Open desert areas with strong winds Dust storm Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense Duration: Can linger for days Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres Source: Can be carried from distant regions Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid Investment raised: $4 million EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries Smoother border management with use of e-gates Cutting red tape on import and export of food Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities. Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids. Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country's systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others. Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser Rating: 4.5/5 Director: Louis Theroux Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz Rating: 5/5 Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni Director: Amith Krishnan Rating: 3.5/5 Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm Transmission: 8-speed auto Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km On sale: Now Price: From Dh149,900 Director: Christopher McQuarrie Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg Rating: 4/5 Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants. Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric Range: Up to 610km Power: 905hp Torque: 985Nm Price: From Dh439,000 Available: Now %3Cp%3E1.%20Labour%20productivity%20is%20lower%20than%20the%20average%20of%20the%20developed%20economies%2C%20particularly%20in%20the%20non-tradable%20industries.%3Cbr%3E2.%20The%20low%20level%20of%20basic%20skills%20among%20workers%20and%20the%20high%20level%20of%20inequality%20between%20those%20with%20various%20skills.%3Cbr%3E3.%20Low%20employment%20rates%2C%20particularly%20among%20Arab%20women%20and%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jewish%20men.%3Cbr%3E4.%20A%20lack%20of%20basic%20knowledge%20required%20for%20integration%20into%20the%20labour%20force%2C%20due%20to%20the%20lack%20of%20core%20curriculum%20studies%20in%20schools%20for%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jews.%3Cbr%3E5.%20A%20need%20to%20upgrade%20and%20expand%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20particularly%20mass%20transit%20infrastructure.%3Cbr%3E6.%20The%20poverty%20rate%20at%20more%20than%20double%20the%20OECD%20average.%3Cbr%3E7.%20Population%20growth%20of%20about%202%20per%20cent%20per%20year%2C%20compared%20to%200.6%20per%20cent%20OECD%20average%20posing%20challenge%20for%20fiscal%20policy%20and%20underpinning%20pressure%20on%20education%2C%20health%20care%2C%20welfare%20housing%20and%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20which%20will%20increase%20in%20the%20coming%20years.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders Director: Dean Fleischer Camp Rating: 4.5/5 Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier. Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals. Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of 'ancillary orders'. More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison. 4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah 5.10pm: Continous 5.45pm: Raging Torrent 6.20pm: West Acre 7pm: Flood Zone 7.40pm: Straight No Chaser 8.15pm: Romantic Warrior 8.50pm: Calandogan 9.30pm: Forever Young Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes Premier League-standard football pitch 400m Olympic running track NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium 600-seat auditorium Spaces for historical and cultural exploration An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad Specialist robotics and science laboratories AR and VR-enabled learning centres Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30. Route 1: bank transfer The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate. Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount Total received: €4,670.30 Route 2: online platform The UAE bank's charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee. Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction Total received: €4,756 The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive. %3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAyan%20Mukerji%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERanbir%20Kapoor%2C%20Alia%20Bhatt%20and%20Amitabh%20Bachchan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Independent
07-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
‘You were much better at the Electric Slide' Bessent reveals to Waters they partied together years ago
Scott Bessent surprised Rep. Maxine Waters during a House committee hearing with the revelation that they had partied together years before in the Bahamas. The Treasury Secretary was testifying to the House Financial Services Committee amid the ongoing global financial uncertainty triggered by President Donald Trump 's tariff measures. When it was the turn of the Democrat Congresswoman from California, she began by asking Bessent if it was the first time they'd met. He replied that it was not and that they had once partied together on New Year's Eve in the Caribbean. Waters' husband had served as the US ambassador to the Bahamas under President Bill Clinton.
