Latest news with #harddata
Bloomberg
28-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Equities Have a Bumpy Road Ahead: Deutsche Bank
00:00 There has been a near obsession for a number of months now about the spread between the hard data and the self data. The soft data has been terrible. The hard data has been receding, and a lot of people believe the hard data would catch down to the soft data after consumer confidence yesterday. Could you get your hands around your head, around the idea that maybe the soft data could maybe bounce back up to where the hard data is? Yeah, it's a very important question. We also discussing rate markets, too optimistic word for what's going on. Actually, first for the hard data, we do see growth coming down a little bit. So forecast for the U.S. for this year would be 1.2, but then moving higher a little bit into next year. So that's hard data. I think that's not a recession. That's good news in the way the soft data, of course. I would say let's not be too optimistic here. There could be some downside there, I would say. From that perspective, I think it's probably a bumpy road ahead. But if you look for 12 months, we do still see another five, 6% on gains, for example, on the S & P 500. But it will come with some volatility.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This is the data one former Fed president says he'd be watching
There are two types of data that many in the business world watch. Hard data, which is things like economic releases, and soft data, which may be things like observations by business leaders. In the video above, former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president and CEO Robert Kaplan shares what hard and soft data he would be keeping an eye on as concerns about a slowing economy grow. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Jay Powell talked about that yesterday, Rob. You know, he said, bottom line, he said economy resilient, labor market resilient, underlying inflation good. So what when would you expect that to show up in the hard data? So there's two things going on. One, the tariffs that we were shocked by on Liberation Day haven't actually gone into effect yet. Uh and so we've seen a lot of pre-ordering and anticipation of them. We've seen businesses trying to figure out how they're going to manage them, big and small businesses. In the one country you see extraordinary highly tariffs on is China and that is having some impact. We see right now on businesses. Um so we're seeing slowing. The thing that also is going on though, the labor force is very tight. Uh unusually tight. Uh and the reason is we've we've reduced immigration flows and organic indigenous flows are very low. So you may actually see, we saw a significant first quarter weakness and we didn't see the unemployment rate spike up. Why is that? I think part of it is businesses are reluctant to get rid of workers unless as long as they're going to stay in business because they know it's going to be difficult to replace them. So I'm watch I'd be watching every employment report. I'd be talking aggressively and to contacts about what they're seeing. But we haven't seen the weakness yet. I can tell you that. And a couple of three sectors, travel, leisure, tourism, obviously, shipping, but apart from that, businesses hanging in there pretty well. And I don't think you're going to see the unemployment rate spike up either. I'm not seeing that either at this point. So Rob, you watch the data, you watch jobs data in particular, you don't listen to what's coming out of the White House, presumably, if you're a member of the Fed. That said, with the president's rhetoric persisting in terms of him now saying the Fed really needs to cut rates, do you think that at some point J. Powell's going to need to come out and make a more forceful case of why cutting is not appropriate right now? Yeah, I think I think as this unfolds, particularly if you see more more significant GDP weakness which leads to unemployment spiking up, then yes, he will have to explain more why the ramp up in unemployment isn't enough to justify adjusting rates. The other thing that should be going on here behind the scenes is normally, uh the chairman of the Fed will be talking regularly to the Treasury Secretary. I'm assuming those conversations are going on. They normally would be and I think it's very important that that line of communication is also open.
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Citi CEO Fraser: Hard, Soft US Data Will Need Time to Converge
Citi CEO Jane Fraser said the difference between US hard and soft data is the "greatest" she has even seen as she discusses uncertainty with Sonali Basak on the sidelines of The Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California.
