4 days ago
Are NCAA Baseball Hosts Losing Their Advantage On The Road To Omaha?
AUSTIN, TX - JUNE 01: UTSA players celebrate as others fall to the ground after winning the NCAA ... More Division I Regional game between Texas Longhorns and UTSA Roadrunners on June 1, 2025, at UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin, Texas. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
While the Women's College World Series was setting records for viewership, the 2025 NCAA Baseball Tournament was delivering a series of stunning upsets that challenge long-held beliefs about the sanctity of home-field advantage. For only the second time since 1999, the top two seeds in the NCAA Baseball Tournament were eliminated in the Regionals as No. 1 Vanderbilt lost to Wright State in Nashville and No. 2 Texas lost to UTSA in Austin earlier this week. In addition to Vanderbilt and Texas, No. 7 Georgia, No. 10 Ole Miss, No. 11 Clemson, No. 12 Oregon, and No. 16 Southern Miss were eliminated in the regionals despite their home turf advantage. As the tournament progresses to the Super Regionals, these developments prompt a reevaluation of the presumed benefits of home-field advantage on the road to Omaha.
The DI baseball tournament is comprised of 64 teams. These teams include 29 conference champions who receive automatic berths and 35 at-large teams selected by the NCAA DI Baseball Committee. The selection committee will also rank the top 16 teams nationally. These 16 teams host the first of four stages in the tournament called Regionals.
FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - JUNE 01: Ben North #11 of the Creighton Bluejays fields a throw and tags ... More out Wehiwa Aloy #9 of the Arkansas Razorbacks at Baum-Walker Stadium at George Cole Field during the Fayetteville Regional on June 01, 2025 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Razorbacks defeated the Bluejays 8-3. (Photo by)
The NCAA baseball tournament begins with the Regionals, where 64 teams are divided into 16 four-team brackets. These four teams are then seeded No. 1-4 within their region with the nationally ranked team claiming the No. 1 seed in the region. Each four-team bracket follows a double-elimination format, meaning a team must lose twice to be eliminated.
The 16 Regional winners then advance to the Super Regionals, where they are matched into eight head-to-head best-of-three series. The Super Regionals are hosted by the higher ranked team in the head-to-head matchup.
The winners of the eight Super Regionals punch their ticket to Omaha for the Men's College World Series (MCWS). There, the teams are split into two four-team, double-elimination brackets.
The final stage of the tournament is the MCWS Finals. The last two teams standing in the double-elimination bracket compete in a best-of-three showdown that crowns the national champion.
OMAHA, NE - JUNE 27: Players of the Florida Gators hold up the National Championship Trophy after ... More defeating the LSU Tigers 6-1 at the College World Series on June 27, 2017 at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by)
This year's Regionals were one of the worst on record for the host teams in the round of Regionals with only 9 out of 16 teams advancing. That represents a rate of 56.25%. While all 16 Regional hosts have never advanced in a single year, recent seasons suggest that hosting is becoming a less reliable path to the Super Regionals. In the NIL and post-COVID era, no more than 11 host teams have made it through Regionals in any given year. Since the introduction of national seeding in 1999, there has been a slight but consistent decline in the percentage of Regional hosts advancing. To be sure, hosting still confers a meaningful advantage, as host teams continue to have a better-than-even chance of advancing. Their chance of advancing is stronger than the combined odds of the three visiting teams.
The trend in win percentage by Regional hosts shows a small but steady decline over time.
The Super Regional round starts tonight and is sure to feature some excellent high-stakes baseball. Hosts have reason to feel even less comfortable in the Super Regionals, as the competition reaches new heights. Much like in the Regionals, data from the Super Regionals shows a declining trend in host win percentage over time. Although the sample size is smaller, only eight Super Regional sites per year compared to 16 Regionals, certain years stand out for how poorly hosts fared. In 2013, 2016, and 2022 hosts had particularly bad streaks with only 50%, 37.5%, and 25% winning their Super Regionals, respectively. It is difficult to determine if those years are representative of a larger trend of decreasing home field advantage or simply random outliers in an otherwise steady trend. However, a t-test revealed a statistically significant decrease in the Super Regional host win percentage when comparing pre-NIL to NIL era results with a p-value of 0.088. While just above the conventional 0.05 threshold, this result suggests that the erosion of home-field advantage in Super Regionals may be more than anecdotal.
The trend in win percentage by Super Regional hosts shows a slow and steady decline pulled further ... More downward by outlier years in 2016 and 2022.
Using betting odds Circa Sports recently posted the Super Regionals, it is possible to estimate the number of host teams that are expected to advance to the College World Series in Omaha.
Betting odds can be converted to implied probabilities of host teams winning their Super Regional. For example, Duke has the highest implied probability at 83.38% and Oregon State has the lowest implied probability at 52.38%.
ATHENS, GA - JUNE 01: The Duke Blue Devils won the NCAA Division I Athens regional tournament ... More beating the Oklahoma St. Cowboys on June 1, 2025 at Foley Field in Athens, Ga. (Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The sum of implied probabilities results in the expected number of Super Regional Hosts heading to Omaha. In 2025, the oddsmakers have placed that number at 5.4 Super Regional hosts. That would represent a win percentage of 67.48% for Super Regional hosts. This follows closely in line with the historic mean win percentage of around 70%. However, the slight dip below the long-term average could also reflect a subtle market adjustment to recent upsets and the increasingly competitive nature of these series.
OMAHA, NEBRASKA - JUNE 24: Head coach Tony Vitello of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates after ... More defeating the Texas A&M Aggies to win the Division I Men's Baseball Championship held at Charles Schwab Field on June 24, 2024 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
While we are far from a world of perfect parity in the NCAA Baseball tournament, the data indicate that cracks are starting to form in the hull of home-field advantage for Regional and Super Regional hosts. This year was an extreme example of two top teams bowing out of the tournament before the Super Regionals and five other hosts failing to advance, as well. From the Regionals to the Super Regionals, trends suggest a slow erosion of the dominance once enjoyed by top-seeded home teams. While betting markets and historical averages still favor the hosts, the road to Omaha is more uncertain than ever making 'the greatest show on dirt' more intriguing than ever.
