3 days ago
Trains and talks: Turkiye's dual track in Ukraine war
Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine's airspace has been closed and its roads have been unsafe for travel. Thus, trains have become the primary means of access. Over the past three years, numerous foreign leaders who have wanted to show their solidarity with Ukraine have taken trains to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the capital Kyiv.
The 10-hour overnight train journey that takes them from southeastern Poland to Kyiv has come to be known as 'iron diplomacy' and acts a symbol of commitment. Typically, the schedule and exact route of these train journeys are kept confidential and two alternate routes are always prepared — one for the actual train and another for a decoy 'ghost train' to mitigate the risk of an attack. This was a precaution particularly used during then-US President Joe Biden's trip last year.
Among the latest officials to embark on this symbolic journey was Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who was accompanied by a delegation of journalists. The Turkish media became the first to be given access to the train, which was heavily guarded, with security personnel both on board and along the route. Typically, during these journeys, the curtains remain closed to minimize visibility for Russian drones. However, the curtains were left open during Fidan's journey — signaling Turkiye's weight in the war and the changing conditions on the ground.
This iron diplomacy is more than just taking world leaders from Poland to Ukraine via rail, it is pivotal in maintaining international support for Ukraine. Each journey demonstrates that, despite the war, Ukraine remains connected to the world. It is also an essential platform for fostering diplomacy and maintaining global attention on the war. Iron diplomacy was one of the ways that Ankara aimed to show its solidarity with Ukraine during challenging times. For Turkiye, these diplomatic efforts reflect a broader strategy.
Iron diplomacy was one of the ways that Ankara aimed to show its solidarity with Ukraine during challenging times.
Dr. Sinem Cengiz
Since the start of the war, Ankara has carefully positioned itself as an actor capable of engaging with both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Among its latest attempts to find a diplomatic solution to the war is the so-called Istanbul process, which aims to bring the two sides together for peace talks.
Two rounds of talks have been held under the Istanbul process, in May and June. Last month's meeting, which coincided with a visit by US President Donald Trump to the Gulf, did not result in a ceasefire but did achieve an agreement on a prisoner exchange. Monday's most recent round, chaired by Fidan and Turkiye's security establishment, also failed to secure a ceasefire. However, Fidan noted a 'more optimistic tone' as negotiations resumed.
The lack of tangible progress is likely due to the complex nature of the war and lack of sufficient will from the two sides. From the Istanbul process, Turkiye's broader goal is to convene a high-level summit between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Zelensky and Putin — a summit that could be a potential turning point in the war.
With the Istanbul process, Turkiye has succeeded in bringing both parties together and it now aims to become the primary actor by creating a diplomatic space beyond the traditional US-Russia framework. Here, Ankara's role defies easy categorization. While some label it a mediator or negotiator, Turkiye more accurately acts as a facilitator. While a mediator, who enters the process to assist parties in search of a solution, is unfamiliar with the system or conflicting situation, the facilitator is part of the system where the wars arose.
Turkiye is part of the geopolitical landscape impacted by the war — that is the Black Sea region. This region, historically vital to Turkiye's security and strategic interests, has become even more critical amid the ongoing Western-Russian rivalry. This proximity gives Ankara both the incentive and the leverage to remain engaged. Turkiye's motivation also stems from its desire to expand its influence on the international stage, safeguard regional stability and carve a role for itself in the postwar settlement.
The lack of tangible progress is likely due to the complex nature of the war and lack of sufficient will from the two sides.
Dr. Sinem Cengiz
So far, all efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine to a negotiated peace have failed. However, a glimmer of hope remains for a diplomatic breakthrough that could finally end the war. This is why both the US and the EU have placed their hopes in Turkiye, while Ankara, in turn, is relying heavily on its carefully managed relationships with both Moscow and Kyiv.
Although the West has often been uneasy about Turkiye's close ties with Russia, there is now growing recognition — both in Washington and across European capitals — of the value of having a partner that can maintain open lines of communication with the Kremlin. This shift is evident in Trump's cautious approach in order to avoid any problems with Turkiye and the EU's increasing emphasis on Ankara's role in ensuring regional security and acting as a diplomatic bridge between East and West. Despite its vocal support for Ukraine's NATO aspirations and its alignment with Western institutions, Turkiye has successfully compartmentalized its relationship with Russia.
Turkiye relies on two main characteristics of a facilitator to achieve success: trust and persuasiveness. Ankara's continued trust-building with both Moscow and Kyiv makes it uniquely suited for the role of potential facilitator, while its style of personal diplomacy plays a significant role in its persuasiveness.
If Turkiye can secure a breakthrough via the Istanbul process, it would be a game-changer not only for Ankara but also for Europe and Russia. Such an outcome would also confirm the words of veteran Turkish ambassador Ertugrul Apakan: 'Success might sometimes only be achieved after many failed attempts ... There is no single recipe for successful mediation, just as no conflict is the same as another.'
