Latest news with #macroEconomics
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Home on the (BTC) Range
Hi. I'm Andy Baehr with the CoinDesk Indices team. Question: Bitcoin is stuck in a range. Is that a bad thing or a good thing? Even casual BTC watchers will have noted the ten percent channel that has held for more than a month. As of today, in fact, it has been 40 days since we entered the ~$101K - ~$111K range, with no catalyst forcing a breakout through either boundary. Good or bad thing? The macro muddle supports range-trading. Our anchor bitcoin macro factor remains expectations for future real interest rates--nominal rates minus inflation. Recent cross-currents create an unclear picture: inflation expectations from surveys have been elevated (though recent releases seem less concerning), while hopes for Fed relief were dim until the market began pricing in two 2025 cuts more assertively. Too muddled for a breakout. Bitcoin is doing what it should. For the store-of-value thesis, range-trading is actually fine. As bitcoin accumulates more days of "not unexpected" behavior, it supports the narrative of relative independence from other risk assets and improved stability. (The S&P 500 has also kept an 8% range through the same 39 days, so bitcoin isn't alone in this holding pattern, although recent news flows might have knocked a younger bitcoin off the track.) But traders are getting restless. Bitcoin's basement-level thirty-day realized volatility below 30% crimps opportunity. Implied vols are also down as option buyers grow fatigued and sellers grab yield more confidently. Like any market, a range that holds too long creates complacency—making the eventual exit more "exciting" than it would otherwise be. The stalled mood is hurting breadth. Without bitcoin providing leadership, other digital assets are wilting. The CoinDesk 20 Index has trailed bitcoin by about 5% over the past month, as the lack of sentiment has stalled the late-April rally, even in ETH, which had bounced strongly. How does this compare historically? With some truly unattractive vibe coding (I take the blame), we studied bitcoin's longest streaks of holding 10% ranges. The current 40-day stretch isn't the longest—that was 42 days—but it's close. Similar streaks occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2023. Given bitcoin's evolved ownership structure (ETFs, MSTR) and more accessible spot and derivatives markets, would a 50-day streak surprise anyone? Not sure.
Reuters
6 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Top Wall Street bank pitches options play to ride potential Indian rupee rally to 83
MUMBAI, June 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' sales and trading desk is recommending an options play on the Indian rupee that will pay off if the South Asian currency rallies to 83 per U.S. dollar over the next nine months. The call — effectively a bet on a 3% appreciation in the rupee from its current level of 85.50 — is underpinned by India's improving macroeconomic fundamentals, a revival in foreign inflows, lower oil prices, and the potential for a U.S.-India trade deal. The rupee has lagged behind its Asian peers this year, showing little response to the dollar index's more than 9% decline. Goldman Sachs is recommending buying a 9-month USD/INR binary put option with a strike price of 83. A binary put option is a type of digital option that pays a fixed amount if the currency pair settles below the strike level at the expiry of the contract. "We chose 9-month tenor for the trade as INR typically tends to appreciate during India's financial year end", which concludes on March 31, according to a sales note from Goldman Sachs. In support of their constructive outlook on the rupee, Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that India's GDP growth accelerated to 7.4% year-on-year in the March quarter from 6.4% in the previous three months. Their monthly activity tracker indicates that consumption remained robust in April. The investment bank's note pointed to a return of foreign equity inflows, with over $4 billion flowing into Indian equities over the past two months. Goldman expects this trend to continue and potentially accelerate, driven by improving corporate earnings. The possibility of a U.S.-India trade deal and lower oil prices could be other catalysts for the rupee. Goldman said that a rollback of the 10% reciprocal tariff would be seen as a positive development for Indian risk assets and the rupee. While the U.S. had initially proposed a 26% levy on Indian shipmemts, the country-specific tariffs have been paused until July 8. On oil, Goldman's commodities research team expects Brent crude to average $60 for the remainder of 2025 and fall to $56 in 2026. Lower energy prices are a net positive for oil-importing countries like India and could support the rupee.
Times
15-05-2025
- Business
- Times
Action stations for overachieving 3i
Call it an Action replay. Once again 3i has delivered what its boss Simon Borrows justifiably calls a 'successful year' — despite the 'challenging macro-economic and geopolitical backdrop'. And chiefly because of a single business: its go-go discount retailer that's swept across 13 European countries. Quiz Borrows on the full-year figures and you sense a bit of irritation that the focus is invariably on Action. As he puts it: 'We are not a one-club golfer,' pointing out that, since he took charge in May 2012, the rest of 3i's private equity portfolio has delivered an annual return averaging 17 per cent. Then again, what else does he expect? When he arrived, Borrows reviewed 3i's 134-strong potpourri of investments and decided he needed 30 max. The
