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Reuters
7 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
AMERICAS White smoke or London fog?
LONDON, June 10 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab Markets have effectively flatlined awaiting the outcome of this week's U.S.-China trade talks in London, though as we near the halfway point of 2025, investors are taking an increasingly benign view of the disruptive and often chaotic last six months, as I discuss in today's column. But now onto all of today's market news. Today's Market Minute * Global stocks and the dollar edged higher on Tuesday as trade talks between the United States and China were set to extend to a second day, giving investors some reason to believe tensions between the world's two largest economies may be easing. * The Trump administration on Monday ordered U.S. Marines into Los Angeles and intensified raids on suspected undocumented immigrants, fueling more outrage from street protesters and Democratic leaders who raised concerns over a national crisis. * All three major U.S. asset classes – stocks, bonds and the currency – have had a turbulent 2025 thus far, but only one has failed to weather the storm: the dollar. Hedging may be a major reason why, claims ROI columnist Jamie McGeever. * Asian countries aren't rushing to buy U.S. energy commodities, even though doing so would help them meet President Donald Trump's demand for lower trade surpluses. Read the latest from ROI columnist Clyde Russell. * European defence stocks have been on a tear since the devastating conflict in Ukraine started in 2022, a trend that has only accelerated since announcements of European rearmament plans. But the beneficial economic impact of the European defence supercycle may be heavily dependent on how it's financed, argues Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement. White smoke or London fog? U.S. and Chinese officials resumed trade talks for a second day in London on Tuesday, hoping to secure a breakthrough over export controls on rare earths and other issues threatening to widen the rupture between the world's two biggest economies. The two delegations, led on the U.S. side by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer opposite a Chinese contingent helmed by Vice Premier He Lifeng, are meeting at the ornate Lancaster House in the British capital. The talks ran for almost seven hours on Monday and are set to resume on Tuesday, with both sides expected to issue updates. Lutnick said the talks would continue all day. U.S. President Donald Trump said the talks were difficult but going well: "We're doing well with China. China's not easy." White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Monday said the U.S. was likely to agree to lift export controls on some semiconductors in return for China speeding up the delivery of rare earths. Wall Street stocks (.SPX), opens new tab were little changed on Monday, with a marginal outperformance for the tech sector . Treasuries were in better form, with yields on long-term maturities ebbing in a week of heavy new debt sales. Those start with a $58 billion auction of 3-year notes later on Tuesday, followed by sales of 10- and 30-year tenors on Wednesday and Thursday. The U.S. May consumer price report tomorrow will barrel into the middle of everything. On that score, the New York Federal Reserve's monthly household survey for May showed Americans' anxiety about the future path of inflation easing last month. That tallies with a broader investor take on the tariff crunch. Many seem to feel that the worst fears are being scaled back as bilateral deals get thrashed out and business sentiment appears to calm. However, the resilience likely hinges on further détente in the trade war. And that's why this week's London talks are so important, especially given that Trump's 90-day pause on wider 'reciprocal' tariffs ends early next month. On the currency front, sterling weakened as Bank of England easing bets rose following the release of the latest UK labor data. Pay growth in Britain slowed sharply, and unemployment rose to its highest in nearly four years in the three months to April. Elsewhere, European (.STOXXE), opens new tab and Chinese stocks (.CSI300), opens new tab were more downbeat and lower on the day. Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab bucked that trend and pushed higher due to reduced fears about the domestic bond market. European indexes were weighed down partly by a reversal of recent gains for Swiss banking giant UBS (UBSG.S), opens new tab. The stock retreated as much as 7% as Swiss markets reopened after a long weekend and investors reacted to government proposals that would require the bank to hold an additional $26 billion in capital. Vaccine makers such as AstraZeneca (AZN.L), opens new tab and Sanofi ( opens new tab pushed higher, brushing off news that U.S. Health Secretary Robert Kennedy fired all 17 members of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention panel of vaccine experts. Be sure to check out today's column, which looks at why a turbulent year so far for markets is being perceived more positively as half-time in 2025 approaches. Chart of the day While sentiment survey readings should be taken with a grain of salt, it is still notable that the New York Federal Reserve's household survey for May showed Americans' anxiety about the future path of inflation easing, with the outlook for inflation ebbing across all time horizons. Five years from now, the public expects inflation to be running at 2.6%, a sliver below April's 2.7% outlook, although still well above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Market pricing shows five-year inflation 'breakevens' from the inflation-protected Treasury market slightly lower at about 2.35%, and the five-year inflation swaps market comes in around 2.45%. Today's events to watch * U.S. May NFIB small business survey (6:00 AM EDT) * U.S. Treasury auctions $58 billion of 3-year notes * U.S. corporate earnings: JM Smucker Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Zawya
14 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
Stocks rise, dollar tentative ahead of US-China talks outcome
SINGAPORE: Stocks were buoyant and the dollar remained on guard on Tuesday as trade talks between the United States and China were set to extend to a second day, with tentative signs tensions between the world's two largest economies could be easing. U.S. President Donald Trump put a positive spin on the talks at Lancaster House in London, which wrapped up for the night on Monday and were set to resume at 0900 GMT on Tuesday. "The fact that we're still up here near record highs, does suggest that we are seeing the market accept what has been said by Trump and when you look at some of the other comments from Lutnick and Bessent, to me it seems to suggest that they are relatively happy with the progress," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. "But the market always likes to see some concrete announcements." As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were set to meet for the second day with their Chinese counterparts, much of investors' focus has been on the progress of the talks. Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given Trump's chaotic tariffs and swings in Sino-U.S. trade ties have undermined the world's two biggest economies and hobbled global growth. Stocks advanced in Asia, extending their rise from the start of the week. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.62%. S&P 500 futures edged 0.43% higher. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both added roughly 0.1% each. In Tokyo, attention was also on the Japanese government bond (JGB) market, following news that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates. The yield on the 10-year JGB fell one basis point to 1.46% in early trade, while the 30-year yield slid 5 bps to 2.86%. Yields on super-long JGBs rose to record levels last month due to dwindling demand from traditional buyers such as life insurers, and jitters over steadily rising debt levels globally. "The volatility at the super-long segment of the curve stems from a supply-demand imbalance that has been brewing since the BOJ embarked on balance sheet normalisation," said Justin Heng, APAC rates strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday the government will conduct appropriate debt management policies while communicating closely with market participants. In currencies, the dollar attempted to regain its footing after falling on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.45% to 145.25. The euro fell 0.28% to $1.1387 while sterling slipped 0.2% to $1.3523. Trump's erratic trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in U.S. assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than 8% for the year. The next test for the greenback will be on Wednesday, when U.S. inflation data comes due. Expectations are for core consumer prices to have picked up slightly in May, which could push back against bets of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. The producer price index (PPI) report will be released a day later. "May's U.S. CPI and PPI data will be scrutinised for signs of lingering inflationary pressures," said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford. "If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting." Traders see the Fed keeping rates on hold at its policy meeting next week, but have priced in roughly 44 bps worth of easing by December. In the oil market, prices edged up, with Brent crude futures gaining 0.24% to $67.20 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was last up 0.25% at $65.45 per barrel after hitting a more than two-month high earlier in the session. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,310.40 an ounce.
Globe and Mail
14 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Stocks rise, U.S. dollar tentative ahead of U.S.-China talks outcome
Stocks were buoyant and the U.S. dollar remained on guard on Tuesday as trade talks between the United States and China were set to extend to a second day, with tentative signs tensions between the world's two largest economies could be easing. U.S. President Donald Trump put a positive spin on the talks at Lancaster House in London, which wrapped up for the night on Monday and were set to resume at 0900 GMT on Tuesday. 'The fact that we're still up here near record highs, does suggest that we are seeing the market accept what has been said by Trump and when you look at some of the other comments from Lutnick and Bessent, to me it seems to suggest that they are relatively happy with the progress,' said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. 'But the market always likes to see some concrete announcements.' As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were set to meet for the second day with their Chinese counterparts, much of investors' focus has been on the progress of the talks. Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given Trump's chaotic tariffs and swings in Sino-U.S. trade ties have undermined the world's two biggest economies and hobbled global growth. Analysis: In Trump-Xi dealings, China seems to have the upper hand Stocks advanced in Asia, extending their rise from the start of the week. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.5 per cent, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.62 per cent. S&P 500 futures edged 0.43 per cent higher. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both added roughly 0.1 per cent each. In Tokyo, attention was also on the Japanese government bond (JGB) market, following news that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates. The yield on the 10-year JGB fell one basis point to 1.46 per cent in early trade, while the 30-year yield slid 5 bps to 2.86 per cent. Yields on super-long JGBs rose to record levels last month due to dwindling demand from traditional buyers such as life insurers, and jitters over steadily rising debt levels globally. 'The volatility at the super-long segment of the curve stems from a supply-demand imbalance that has been brewing since the BOJ embarked on balance sheet normalisation,' said Justin Heng, APAC rates strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday the government will conduct appropriate debt management policies while communicating closely with market participants. In currencies, the dollar attempted to regain its footing after falling on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.45 per cent to 145.25. The euro fell 0.28% to $1.1387 while sterling slipped 0.2 per cent to US$1.3523. Trump's erratic trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in U.S. assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than 8 per cent for the year. The next test for the greenback will be on Wednesday, when U.S. inflation data comes due. Expectations are for core consumer prices to have picked up slightly in May, which could push back against bets of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. The producer price index (PPI) report will be released a day later. 'May's U.S. CPI and PPI data will be scrutinised for signs of lingering inflationary pressures,' said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford. 'If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting.' Traders see the Fed keeping rates on hold at its policy meeting next week, but have priced in roughly 44 bps worth of easing by December. In the oil market, prices edged up, with Brent crude futures gaining 0.24 per cent to US$67.20 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was last up 0.25 per cent at US$65.45 per barrel after hitting a more than two-month high earlier in the session. Spot gold fell 0.5 per cent to US$3,310.40 an ounce.
Reuters
16 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Stocks rise, dollar tentative ahead of US-China talks outcome
SINGAPORE, June 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were buoyant and the dollar remained on guard on Tuesday as trade talks between the United States and China were set to extend to a second day, with tentative signs tensions between the world's two largest economies could be easing. U.S. President Donald Trump put a positive spin on the talks at Lancaster House in London, which wrapped up for the night on Monday and were set to resume at 0900 GMT on Tuesday. "The fact that we're still up here near record highs, does suggest that we are seeing the market accept what has been said by Trump and when you look at some of the other comments from Lutnick and Bessent, to me it seems to suggest that they are relatively happy with the progress," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. "But the market always likes to see some concrete announcements." As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were set to meet for the second day with their Chinese counterparts, much of investors' focus has been on the progress of the talks. Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given Trump's chaotic tariffs and swings in Sino-U.S. trade ties have undermined the world's two biggest economies and hobbled global growth. Stocks advanced in Asia, extending their rise from the start of the week. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab advanced 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.62%. S&P 500 futures edged 0.43% higher. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both added roughly 0.1% each. In Tokyo, attention was also on the Japanese government bond (JGB) market, following news that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates. The yield on the 10-year JGB fell one basis point to 1.46% in early trade, while the 30-year yield slid 5 bps to 2.86%. Yields on super-long JGBs rose to record levels last month due to dwindling demand from traditional buyers such as life insurers, and jitters over steadily rising debt levels globally. "The volatility at the super-long segment of the curve stems from a supply-demand imbalance that has been brewing since the BOJ embarked on balance sheet normalisation," said Justin Heng, APAC rates strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday the government will conduct appropriate debt management policies while communicating closely with market participants. In currencies, the dollar attempted to regain its footing after falling on Monday. Against the yen , the dollar was up 0.45% to 145.25. The euro fell 0.28% to $1.1387 while sterling slipped 0.2% to $1.3523. Trump's erratic trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in U.S. assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than 8% for the year . The next test for the greenback will be on Wednesday, when U.S. inflation data comes due. Expectations are for core consumer prices to have picked up slightly in May, which could push back against bets of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. The producer price index (PPI) report will be released a day later. "May's U.S. CPI and PPI data will be scrutinised for signs of lingering inflationary pressures," said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford. "If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting." Traders see the Fed keeping rates on hold at its policy meeting next week, but have priced in roughly 44 bps worth of easing by December . In the oil market, prices edged up, with Brent crude futures gaining 0.24% to $67.20 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was last up 0.25% at $65.45 per barrel after hitting a more than two-month high earlier in the session. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,310.40 an ounce.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Asian Currencies Consolidate Amid Mild Risk Appetite
Asian currencies consolidated against the dollar in early trade amid mild appetite for risky assets.
