Latest news with #marketoptimism
Globe and Mail
10 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
John De Goey is questioning long-held beliefs within the financial services industry
In the first episode of season two, Brenda speaks with John De Goey, a well-known advisor and author who isn't afraid to question industry norms. John's bold ideas and critical perspective have set him apart from most of his peers in the financial services world. With books like 'The Professional Financial Advisor' and 'Stand Up to the Financial Services Industry,' he pushes for changes that better serve investors. John talks about his upbringing on a southwestern Ontario farm, explains why he thinks advisors paint an overly optimistic picture of the market, and outlines what red flags to look out for when choosing your advisor.
News.com.au
6 days ago
- Business
- News.com.au
Markets are complacent, but volatility is coming
Markets are coasting on a wave of optimism that looks increasingly untethered from reality, writes Nigel Green. With the S&P 500, among other indices, brushing against record highs and tech stocks powering ahead, it would be easy to mistake this rally for resilience. But it's not resilience, it's complacency. This isn't about fearmongering. It's about realism. While equities flash green, warning signs are piling up fast: renewed trade tensions, stubborn inflation risks, ballooning government debt, and a bond market that's growing less patient by the day. Add to that the thin trading volumes of the summer months, where small shifts can trigger outsized moves, and we're staring at the likelihood of a sharp uptick in volatility. Take trade. The US has reignited its protectionist agenda, with fresh tariff threats aimed squarely at China. Talks have stalled, temporary deals remain toothless, tariff levels are still punishing, and supply chains remain under pressure. With rhetoric on both sides remaining pretty much the same, markets are underestimating the risk of another escalation. Unlike previous episodes, this is not a minor skirmish, it's a deepening economic contest between the world's two largest economies. Inflation is another pressure point. Investors are betting that price growth will continue cooling, nudging central banks toward rate cuts. That's a risky assumption. The next round of data could easily surprise to the upside. Labour markets remain tight, and input costs from tariffs and energy are beginning to creep higher. A fresh inflation spike could push rate-cut hopes further into the distance, and valuations would have to adjust accordingly. Also, the bond market is already signalling discomfort. Treasury yields have been climbing, not because of runaway growth, but because of mounting supply. The US is issuing record levels of debt to finance deficits that show no sign of narrowing. Overseas buyers, especially China and Japan, are stepping back. The result is weaker demand, rising yields, and a higher cost of capital rippling across the economy. This isn't the backdrop for a smooth rally in equities. At the same time, corporate America is flashing its own warning lights. Layoffs are accelerating. Major firms across tech, finance, and entertainment have all announced significant job cuts in recent weeks. While markets perversely reward these announcements in the short term — interpreting them as margin-boosting measures — the deeper implication is that companies are preparing for slower growth. The earnings optimism driving stocks upward is, in many cases, built on sand. Yet despite all of this, there's still a strong case for opportunity. Volatility isn't inherently negative. It's disruptive, yes. But it's also the source of market mispricing, and mispricing is what creates the space for outperformance. When consensus gets lazy, as it has now, bold positioning has room to shine. That's especially true in this moment. The convergence of rapid technological progress — particularly in AI, automation, and productivity-enhancing innovations — is starting to reshape the profit potential of entire sectors. These forces are disinflationary over the medium term, even as short-term price pressures remain stubborn. The companies that harness them early will not just weather volatility, they'll emerge stronger. The key is not to flee risk, but to understand it and position intelligently. Passive portfolios anchored to a backward-looking view of the economy are vulnerable. Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes, will matter more than ever. So will exposure to forward-facing megatrends, from clean energy to semiconductors to AI infrastructure. This summer, markets won't drift quietly. With liquidity thinner, every data release and policy signal will carry more weight. Sudden swings are not just possible but likely. But that's precisely what makes this period one of the most promising entry points in recent memory. Those who wait for perfect clarity will miss the window. The exuberance in today's equity markets is not sustainable. It's built on the hope of soft landings, timely rate cuts, and diplomatic breakthroughs. But hope isn't a strategy. The coming months will test the market's assumptions and many won't hold. Yet that doesn't mean retreat is the right move, it means preparation is key. Investors willing to engage with this volatility, not hide from it, are far more likely to capture the upside when it comes. Nigel Green, is the group CEO and founder of deVere Group, an independent global financial consultancy. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Stockhead.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day: No 'trade truce' hangover, party continues
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Risk assets extend gains Stocks, oil and bond yields rose on Tuesday, lifted by the optimism surging through markets that the worst of the global trade crisis is past and that the growth outlook is much brighter than it looked only a few days ago. In my column today I look at the market and economic chaos sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement and ask: was it worth it? More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @ Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Trump's tariff blitz yields deals but misses globaltrade fix 2. 'Tariff Laffer Curve' reins in trade agenda: Mike Dolan 3. ANALYSIS-US tariff pause on Beijing puts pressure on'China-plus-one' countries 4. Forget Trump. A UK deal with the EU is what matters 5. INSIGHT-China's AI-powered humanoid robots aim totransform manufacturing Today's Key Market Moves * The S&P 500 and Nasdaq extend their rally, led by energyand tech. The S&P 500 is up 0.6%, the Nasdaq 1.6%. Weakness inhealthcare drags the Dow lower. * Germany's DAX rises for a fourth day, edging back uptoward the previous day's record high. It has now risen 13 outof the last 15 sessions. * Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields rise by up to 5 bps, withthe 10-year yield climbing back above 4.50% for the first timein a month. * Oil rises 2.5%, its fourth daily gain in a row. Brentand WTI futures have gained around 10% in those four days. * Sterling is the biggest gainer in G10 FX, rising 1% to$1.33 following hawkish comments from BoE chief economist HuwPill. No 'trade truce' hangover, party continues There was no hangover for world markets on Tuesday from the previous day's trade-fueled euphoria. Indeed, the party continued as stocks and bond yields climbed higher, and volatility declined further. The wave of relief that swept through world markets on Monday following the U.S.-China 'trade truce' was compounded on Tuesday by receding U.S. 'stagflation' fears after April inflation figures came in softer than economists had expected. Consumer prices rose at a 2.3% annual pace in April, the smallest gain since February 2021 and a sign that the Federal Reserve is still well-placed to deliver gradual interest rate cuts later in the year. The medium-term outlook for markets is still unclear. Uncertainty surrounding the path for tariffs, growth, and inflation this year is still high. But that's for another day. The last 48 hours have given some powerful rocket fuel for risk assets - a surprisingly rapid de-escalation in U.S.-Sino trade tensions, waves of upward revisions to Chinese and U.S. growth forecasts, and now the tamest U.S. inflation in over four years. The global inflation picture was also burnished on Tuesday by figures from India that showed consumer prices in the world's fifth-largest economy rose last month at the slowest pace in nearly six years. Of course, these are backward-looking numbers and tariff-affected inflation rates in the coming months will likely be higher. But they're still positive for risk appetite, and investors are willing to look on them favorably for now. Optimism on trade is running high. In Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump secured a $600 billion commitment from the oil powerhouse to invest in the United States; a number of U.S. technology firms, including Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, announced artificial intelligence deals in the Middle East; and China has removed a ban on airlines taking delivery of Boeing planes. Sentiment toward China continues to improve, with several economists revising up their growth forecasts since the U.S.-Sino trade truce. On Tuesday, the yuan appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since mid-November on the onshore and offshore spot markets. What was the point of April's market chaos? The fog of uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war is suddenly lifting, although doubts over its longer-term economic impact will linger. As will another question: What was the point of all that 'Liberation Day' chaos and confusion? Trump, a consistent advocate of tariffs since the 1980s, made it very clear during his election campaign that he intended to significantly raise import levies. As the self-styled 'Tariff Man,' he vehemently argued that tariffs will help raise federal revenues, revitalize U.S. manufacturing, and reduce the country's yawning trade deficit. One can argue the economic merits of his agenda, but no one, in good faith, can express surprise that he did exactly what he said he would do. But even some of Trump's ardent backers are questioning the strategy and implementation. Was the aim to whip up economic and market chaos to gain maximum leverage over America's trading partners and thereby secure the most favorable terms for Washington in subsequent trade talks? Maybe. Short-term havoc was certainly wreaked, with some $6 trillion wiped off the value of U.S. stocks in the three days after 'Liberation Day.' But now deals are getting done and all those losses have been erased – except, of course, for investors who got spooked and sold. But after all that, it's unclear whether the tariffs that will result from these deals – which will likely be much lower than the extreme figures put forward a few weeks ago – will be significant enough to move the dial meaningfully on the U.S. trade deficit. And on the fiscal side, all tariffs announced so far this year are forecast to raise $2.7 trillion in federal revenue over the 2026-35 decade, up from an estimated $2.4 trillion before the U.S.-China 'truce' in Geneva, according to Yale Budget Lab, which pointed out that sky-high tariffs were far from 'revenue optimal.' Was the turbulence of the last several weeks worth an extra $30 billion a year, or 0.1% of GDP? Of course, $2.7 trillion is not to be sniffed at, but it comes at a cost. Yale Budget Lab also estimates tariffs will knock 0.7 percentage points off real U.S. GDP growth this year, and in the long run the U.S. economy will permanently be 0.4 percentage points smaller. The price level of goods across the country will be permanently higher too, economists reckon. Estimates vary, but the general view is that the global average effective tariff rate will be somewhere in the 13-18% range, down 10 percentage points from before the weekend truce but still the highest since before World War Two, and significantly higher than 2.3% at the end of last year. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer and business confidence has slumped to some of the lowest levels on record, and consumer inflation expectations are the highest in decades. These indicators may improve in the months ahead, but much spending and investment has been put on hold due to the uncertainty and likely won't be switched back on so quickly. LASTING DAMAGE Perhaps most importantly, the damage done to U.S. credibility hasn't vanished simply because asset prices have rebounded. Remember the methodology behind the Liberation Day figures, which saw some of the highest duties slapped on the world's poorest countries and tariffs imposed on frozen islands largely inhabited by penguins? This was widely ridiculed and called into question the seriousness of Trump's team, as have many of the other unorthodox policies the administration has been pursuing. Faith in America as a reliable partner has clearly been diminished. As HSBC currency analysts reminded readers on Tuesday, "Trust takes years to build, seconds to break and forever to remake." The administration appears to be trying to repair some of that reputational damage. It's notable that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led the delegation in Geneva this weekend rather than tariff hardliners like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy director Peter Navarro. But fully restoring U.S. credibility won't be a quick fix. And the long-term consequences for U.S. rates, the dollar and U.S. assets overall could be meaningful. So if we consider where we are relative to a no-tariff scenario, U.S. growth will likely be slower, prices will likely be higher, and uncertainty will run much deeper. But would these costs be so burdensome had the administration taken a more pragmatic, less confrontational approach from the start? The wounds will heal, but the scars may last a long time. What could move markets tomorrow? * India wholesale price inflation (April) * Germany CPI inflation (April, final) * Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks * Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever) Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jim Cramer on Meta's $72 Billion CapEx Forecast: Bold or Risky?
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) stands against other stocks that Jim Cramer discussed. The optimism over US-China trade talks is increasing as the US Treasury Secretary is set to meet China's trade negotiator in Switzerland later this week. In a latest program on CNBC, Jim Cramer expressed his renewed optimism for major tech stocks and said the negative market sentiment about these companies was weakened after the latest quarterly reports. 'Sometimes you forget why you ever liked something in the first place. Take the super stocks, the hyperscalers, the tech titans—I don't care whatever you want to call them. These stocks all got lumped together because of their size, their gigantic market caps that dwarf the rest of the market, and then they lost their juice,' Cramer said. 'It's their scale, their smarts, their moats, their balance sheets, and their sensational products.' Jim Cramer also talked about the latest data in company reports that shows the demand for data centers remains strong. READ ALSO: 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In. For this article, we picked 10 stocks Jim Cramer recently talked about during his programs on CNBC. With each stock, we mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here). Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 235 Jim Cramer in a latest program on CNBC talked about the results of Meta Platforms: 'Last night, the bears were trampled to death when both Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) revealed they were totally on board with continuing to spend big on the data center. Microsoft's data center constraint. Mark Zuckerberg at Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) says he needs to keep spending because it's just so lucrative to do so. It's simple, it's necessary if big money is going to be made monetizing his Met AI site, which he's so crazy about.' Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) biggest strength remains its huge user base, which continues to grow despite record levels. The company has 3.43 billion monthly active users as of March, up 6% year over year. This equals about half of the world's total population, giving the company immense power for monetization and data processing. The company also raised its capex guide for the year from $60-$65 billion to $64-$72 billion, crushing concerns about an AI and data center slowdown. Another overlooked element in Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) business is its ads growth. The company, which depends on advertising for 98% of its revenue, is growing at a rate of 21% YoY. In comparison, Google Search grew by 9%, while Alphabet's overall business, including Cloud and Services, expanded by 12%. Even YouTube's year-on-year growth stands at 11%, well below Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) rate. Given Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) current growth, Wall Street's estimates of 21% EBIT growth and 18% OCF growth seem conservative compared to the tailwinds the company is benefiting from right now. Nightview Capital stated the following regarding Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) in its Q4 2024 investor letter: 'Core Opportunity: Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:META) platforms—Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Messenger—reach nearly half the world's population daily, making it one of the most powerful advertising ecosystems globally. With investments in AI and augmented reality (AR), we believe Meta is also creating significant optionality for long-term growth. Overall, META ranks 3rd on our list of stocks that Jim Cramer discussed. While we acknowledge the potential of META, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than META but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jim Cramer on Meta's $72 Billion CapEx Forecast: Bold or Risky?
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) stands against other stocks that Jim Cramer discussed. The optimism over US-China trade talks is increasing as the US Treasury Secretary is set to meet China's trade negotiator in Switzerland later this week. In a latest program on CNBC, Jim Cramer expressed his renewed optimism for major tech stocks and said the negative market sentiment about these companies was weakened after the latest quarterly reports. 'Sometimes you forget why you ever liked something in the first place. Take the super stocks, the hyperscalers, the tech titans—I don't care whatever you want to call them. These stocks all got lumped together because of their size, their gigantic market caps that dwarf the rest of the market, and then they lost their juice,' Cramer said. 'It's their scale, their smarts, their moats, their balance sheets, and their sensational products.' Jim Cramer also talked about the latest data in company reports that shows the demand for data centers remains strong. READ ALSO: 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In. For this article, we picked 10 stocks Jim Cramer recently talked about during his programs on CNBC. With each stock, we mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here). Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 235 Jim Cramer in a latest program on CNBC talked about the results of Meta Platforms: 'Last night, the bears were trampled to death when both Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) revealed they were totally on board with continuing to spend big on the data center. Microsoft's data center constraint. Mark Zuckerberg at Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) says he needs to keep spending because it's just so lucrative to do so. It's simple, it's necessary if big money is going to be made monetizing his Met AI site, which he's so crazy about.' Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) biggest strength remains its huge user base, which continues to grow despite record levels. The company has 3.43 billion monthly active users as of March, up 6% year over year. This equals about half of the world's total population, giving the company immense power for monetization and data processing. The company also raised its capex guide for the year from $60-$65 billion to $64-$72 billion, crushing concerns about an AI and data center slowdown. Another overlooked element in Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) business is its ads growth. The company, which depends on advertising for 98% of its revenue, is growing at a rate of 21% YoY. In comparison, Google Search grew by 9%, while Alphabet's overall business, including Cloud and Services, expanded by 12%. Even YouTube's year-on-year growth stands at 11%, well below Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) rate. Given Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) current growth, Wall Street's estimates of 21% EBIT growth and 18% OCF growth seem conservative compared to the tailwinds the company is benefiting from right now. Nightview Capital stated the following regarding Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) in its Q4 2024 investor letter: 'Core Opportunity: Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:META) platforms—Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Messenger—reach nearly half the world's population daily, making it one of the most powerful advertising ecosystems globally. With investments in AI and augmented reality (AR), we believe Meta is also creating significant optionality for long-term growth. Overall, META ranks 3rd on our list of stocks that Jim Cramer discussed. While we acknowledge the potential of META, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than META but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
