Latest news with #marketstrategy
Khaleej Times
20 hours ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Digital twin trading: Simulating the future of forex strategy
In the ever-evolving landscape of forex trading, where the interplay of global events, algorithmic execution, and shifting market sentiment grows increasingly complex, the search for strategic clarity has never been more pressing. Amid this complexity, one concept is quietly redefining how we approach strategy development and market resilience: Digital Twin Trading. A digital twin, at its core, is a dynamic, high-fidelity simulation of a real-world system. Originally developed in fields such as aerospace and manufacturing to optimise performance and anticipate breakdowns, the digital twin is now entering the world of financial markets. In the context of forex, it offers a powerful and practical model of trading environments — capturing the behaviour of market participants, liquidity flows, volatility shifts, and even latency dynamics — to test, refine, and future-proof strategies before capital is ever deployed. Throughout my career in financial markets, I've consistently prioritised foresight over reaction — seeking out tools and processes that allow for forward-looking decision-making. Digital twins reflect this mindset. They allow us to model trading strategies in environments that mirror real market conditions, offering a way to rehearse for tomorrow's volatility today. Unlike traditional backtesting tools, which are often built on static data and simplified assumptions, a digital twin evolves in real time. It integrates live market feeds, behavioural insights, and machine learning models to respond and adapt much like the actual market would. Traders and technologists can simulate 'what if' scenarios with greater confidence: What if market depth disappears? What if a macro release defies consensus? What if an AI-driven strategy reacts unpredictably in an illiquid pair? That said, any meaningful simulation must confront the structural realities of the forex market. As an over-the-counter (OTC) space, forex lacks a centralised exchange and a universal data source. Pricing and liquidity data are fragmented across brokers, platforms, and liquidity providers — each offering only a partial view of market conditions. In this context, the accuracy and reliability of data become critical. A robust digital twin must reflect these limitations, incorporating data gaps and execution inconsistencies into the model to avoid a misleading sense of precision. This has significant implications for risk management. A well-calibrated digital twin offers a secure environment to test not only strategy robustness but also the behaviour of risk under stress. It enables a deeper understanding of slippage, execution variability, and liquidity risk — factors that are often underestimated until they become consequential. In this way, simulation becomes a powerful complement to judgment and experience, providing a structured space for discovery and refinement. From my perspective as a financial professional, digital twins are not a theoretical luxury but a practical step towards more responsible and adaptive market engagement. They enhance our ability to navigate uncertainty without relying solely on historical patterns or intuition. More importantly, they encourage a culture of continuous experimentation and improvement — one where failure becomes a tool for learning rather than a trigger for loss. But the real promise of digital twins lies beyond the mechanics. They represent a shift in how we think about innovation and resilience. They support collaboration between human and artificial intelligence, bridge the gap between strategy and execution, and help transform abstract risk into tangible insight. This isn't about replacing the trader — it's about empowering the trader to make smarter, more informed decisions in real time. As forex markets continue to evolve at the intersection of AI, macroeconomic disruption, and geopolitical flux, we need tools that reflect both the complexity and the opportunity of this new era. Digital twin trading offers exactly that — a bridge between today's volatility and tomorrow's strategic clarity. The writer is CEO of Axiory Global.
Malay Mail
26-05-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Oil's at a low US$60, so why is OPEC+ opening even more taps?
LONDON, May 26 — Despite oil trading low at $60, OPEC+ this week is expected to continue to further open the taps. This follows pressure from US President Donald Trump and group leader Saudi Arabia's quest to penalise allies that breach the cartel's quotas. In past months, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other OPEC+ members have surprised markets by announcing a sharp increase in oil production for May and June despite the low prices. Numbering a total of 22 countries, most of which are highly dependent on oil revenues, the group has long been exploiting supply scarcity to boost prices, holding millions of barrels in reserve. This week the cartel will hold two meetings – one online on Wednesday with all OPEC+ members to discuss the group's common strategy, and one on Sunday with just the eight member states – known as the 'V8' – that have made the largest cuts in recent years. 'What's most interesting is the V8 decision' in Sunday's meeting regarding production for July, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP. Analysts expect the V8 to up production by 411,000 barrels a day for July – the same as in May and June – whereas the initial plan called for an increase of just 137,000 barrels. This could further weigh down prices already slumping to lows last seen during the pandemic, which hit global demand. Internal disagreements The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies – collectively known as OPEC+ – have justified their change in strategy by citing 'current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories'. But observers are sceptical, given concerns about global demand due to the trade war that Trump has unleashed. Since late 2022, the cartel had slashed production, with Riyadh, Moscow and the six other OPEC+ members withholding 2.2 million barrels per day. At the start of the year, the group said it would reintroduce some of the oil kept under ground, but it has significantly accelerated the pace. With this, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia effectively puts pressure on members that have failed to cut back their production as agreed, reducing their profits. Behind the quota violations, there are 'people who make investments and want to monetise the benefit', Lawrence Haar, an associate professor at the University of Brighton, told AFP. For Kazakhstan, the main offender within the group, the increase in recent production is linked to the Tengiz project, whose main operator is the American group Chevron, according to Francis Perrin, a senior research fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS). Other countries, such as Iraq or the United Arab Emirates, have also increased output more than agreed, but Riyadh targets especially Astana. 'Kazakhstan continues to overproduce massively above its OPEC+ quota, and Saudi cannot walk back on its threats of punishing the cheaters without losing credibility, so it leaves Saudi with no choice,' DNB Carnegie analysts said. Pressure from Trump Beyond these internal disputes, 'it is absolutely impossible to interpret the change in position of the eight OPEC+ countries without referring to the pressure from Donald Trump', according to Perrin. The US leader -- aiming to drive down prices to combat inflation being stoked domestically – said in late January that he would ask Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations 'to bring down the cost of oil'. During Trump's recent diplomatic tour of Gulf countries, 'none of that has been mentioned', suggesting that 'he seems to be happy with the actions' of OPEC+, said Carole Nakhle, an economist at the Surrey Energy Economics Centre. OPEC+ is also no doubt keeping an eye on the outcome of discussions between Tehran and Washington on the Islamic republic's nuclear programme. If a deal on that were reached – and sanctions lifted – OPEC member Iran's oil would also come onto the global market. Excessively low oil prices do present a challenge for Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, to finance its ambitious plan aimed at diversifying the economy. 'The Saudi Arabian economy depends on oil,' Nakhle stressed. — AFP
News.com.au
26-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
OPEC+ expected to open taps more despite price slump
Despite oil trading low at $60, OPEC+ this week is expected to continue to further open the taps. This follows pressure from US President Donald Trump and group leader Saudi Arabia's quest to penalise allies that breach the cartel's quotas. In past months, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other OPEC+ members have surprised markets by announcing a sharp increase in oil production for May and June despite the low prices. Numbering a total of 22 countries, most of which are highly dependent on oil revenues, the group has long been exploiting supply scarcity to boost prices, holding millions of barrels in reserve. This week the cartel will hold two meetings -- one online on Wednesday with all OPEC+ members to discuss the group's common strategy, and one on Sunday with just the eight member states -- known as the "V8" -- that have made the largest cuts in recent years. "What's most interesting is the V8 decision" in Sunday's meeting regarding production for July, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP. Analysts expect the V8 to up production by 411,000 barrels a day for July -- the same as in May and June -- whereas the initial plan called for an increase of just 137,000 barrels. This could further weigh down prices already slumping to lows last seen during the pandemic, which hit global demand. - Internal disagreements - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies -- collectively known as OPEC+ -- have justified their change in strategy by citing "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories". But observers are sceptical, given concerns about global demand due to the trade war that Trump has unleashed. Since late 2022, the cartel had slashed production, with Riyadh, Moscow and the six other OPEC+ members withholding 2.2 million barrels per day. At the start of the year, the group said it would reintroduce some of the oil kept under ground, but it has significantly accelerated the pace. With this, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia effectively puts pressure on members that have failed to cut back their production as agreed, reducing their profits. Behind the quota violations, there are "people who make investments and want to monetise the benefit", Lawrence Haar, an associate professor at the University of Brighton, told AFP. For Kazakhstan, the main offender within the group, the increase in recent production is linked to the Tengiz project, whose main operator is the American group Chevron, according to Francis Perrin, a senior research fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS). Other countries, such as Iraq or the United Arab Emirates, have also increased output more than agreed, but Riyadh targets especially Astana. "Kazakhstan continues to overproduce massively above its OPEC+ quota, and Saudi cannot walk back on its threats of punishing the cheaters without losing credibility, so it leaves Saudi with no choice," DNB Carnegie analysts said. - Pressure from Trump - Beyond these internal disputes, "it is absolutely impossible to interpret the change in position of the eight OPEC+ countries without referring to the pressure from Donald Trump", according to Perrin. The US leader -- aiming to drive down prices to combat inflation being stoked domestically -- said in late January that he would ask Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations "to bring down the cost of oil". During Trump's recent diplomatic tour of Gulf countries, "none of that has been mentioned", suggesting that "he seems to be happy with the actions" of OPEC+, said Carole Nakhle, an economist at the Surrey Energy Economics Centre. OPEC+ is also no doubt keeping an eye on the outcome of discussions between Tehran and Washington on the Islamic republic's nuclear programme. If a deal on that were reached -- and sanctions lifted -- OPEC member Iran's oil would also come onto the global market. Excessively low oil prices do present a challenge for Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, to finance its ambitious plan aimed at diversifying the economy. "The Saudi Arabian economy depends on oil," Nakhle stressed.
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
OPEC+ expected to open taps more despite price slump
Despite oil trading low at $60, OPEC+ this week is expected to continue to further open the taps. This follows pressure from US President Donald Trump and group leader Saudi Arabia's quest to penalise allies that breach the cartel's quotas. In past months, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other OPEC+ members have surprised markets by announcing a sharp increase in oil production for May and June despite the low prices. Numbering a total of 22 countries, most of which are highly dependent on oil revenues, the group has long been exploiting supply scarcity to boost prices, holding millions of barrels in reserve. This week the cartel will hold two meetings -- one online on Wednesday with all OPEC+ members to discuss the group's common strategy, and one on Sunday with just the eight member states -- known as the "V8" -- that have made the largest cuts in recent years. "What's most interesting is the V8 decision" in Sunday's meeting regarding production for July, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP. Analysts expect the V8 to up production by 411,000 barrels a day for July -- the same as in May and June -- whereas the initial plan called for an increase of just 137,000 barrels. This could further weigh down prices already slumping to lows last seen during the pandemic, which hit global demand. - Internal disagreements - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies -- collectively known as OPEC+ -- have justified their change in strategy by citing "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories". But observers are sceptical, given concerns about global demand due to the trade war that Trump has unleashed. Since late 2022, the cartel had slashed production, with Riyadh, Moscow and the six other OPEC+ members withholding 2.2 million barrels per day. At the start of the year, the group said it would reintroduce some of the oil kept under ground, but it has significantly accelerated the pace. With this, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia effectively puts pressure on members that have failed to cut back their production as agreed, reducing their profits. Behind the quota violations, there are "people who make investments and want to monetise the benefit", Lawrence Haar, an associate professor at the University of Brighton, told AFP. For Kazakhstan, the main offender within the group, the increase in recent production is linked to the Tengiz project, whose main operator is the American group Chevron, according to Francis Perrin, a senior research fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS). Other countries, such as Iraq or the United Arab Emirates, have also increased output more than agreed, but Riyadh targets especially Astana. "Kazakhstan continues to overproduce massively above its OPEC+ quota, and Saudi cannot walk back on its threats of punishing the cheaters without losing credibility, so it leaves Saudi with no choice," DNB Carnegie analysts said. - Pressure from Trump - Beyond these internal disputes, "it is absolutely impossible to interpret the change in position of the eight OPEC+ countries without referring to the pressure from Donald Trump", according to Perrin. The US leader -- aiming to drive down prices to combat inflation being stoked domestically -- said in late January that he would ask Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations "to bring down the cost of oil". During Trump's recent diplomatic tour of Gulf countries, "none of that has been mentioned", suggesting that "he seems to be happy with the actions" of OPEC+, said Carole Nakhle, an economist at the Surrey Energy Economics Centre. OPEC+ is also no doubt keeping an eye on the outcome of discussions between Tehran and Washington on the Islamic republic's nuclear programme. If a deal on that were reached -- and sanctions lifted -- OPEC member Iran's oil would also come onto the global market. Excessively low oil prices do present a challenge for Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, to finance its ambitious plan aimed at diversifying the economy. "The Saudi Arabian economy depends on oil," Nakhle stressed. pml/anb/jza/rmb/fec
Forbes
25-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Three Fund Managers, One Truth About Investing In Chaos
20th October 1987: High-angle view of traders on the floor of New York Stock Exchange, the day the ... More Dow Jones posted a record one-day point rise, New York City. (Photo by Jim Wilson/New York Times Co./Getty Images) Today's markets are flooded with noise—AI hype, FOMO-fueled rallies, and sudden liquidity shocks. Amid the chaos, what's missing isn't more opinions, it's clarity. In this environment, the key to successful investing is not loudness but maintaining a sense of groundedness. Over the past month, I sat down with three seasoned fund managers whose strategies span the spectrum: On paper, their philosophies differ. In practice, their edge converges. Each manager thrives by doing the same thing: cutting through the noise with clarity, leaning on process over prediction, and keeping risk front and center. When markets fracture, it's not tactics that separate winners from losers; it's temperament. And in this moment, wisdom—not speed—is the most underrated asset. What unites all three fund managers isn't their investing style, it's their unshakable focus on not losing money. This principal shapes everything they do, even when it puts them at odds with market sentiment. At Vulcan Value Partners, C.T. Fitzpatrick builds portfolios around companies whose intrinsic value remains stable, even when the stock price doesn't. He patiently waits for moments of market dislocation, buying only when there's a clear margin of safety. As Fitzpatrick puts it, 'You can't compound capital you've lost.' That insight underscores why downside protection, not upside chase, drives long-term performance. At Vontobel, David Souccar and Rob Hansen lean into businesses with enduring tailwinds and resilient cash flows—companies that don't just survive market volatility but grow through it. Their discipline lies in knowing what not to own and resisting the urge to chase what works today if it compromises tomorrow. Dave Iben, meanwhile, gravitates toward tangible assets and strong balance sheets—especially in regions or sectors the market has mispriced or overlooked. His approach is deeply contrarian, but rooted. He looks for real value in real things, trusting that fundamentals eventually win. Together, these managers share a core belief: risk isn't volatility, it's permanent loss of capital. That's why their portfolios often look wrong in the short term, only to be proven right over the full cycle. And it's why they consistently outperform when others are still reeling. In investing, it's not the market that determines your outcome—it's how you behave when the market moves against you. That's where discipline separates professionals from pretenders. Discipline at Vulcan Value Partners involves persevering through market downturns. C.T. Fitzpatrick doesn't flinch when prices dip—as long as the intrinsic value remains intact, the position holds. At Vontobel, Rob Hansen and David Souccar continue to back high-quality businesses even when the narrative shifts or headlines scream otherwise. Their strategy isn't swayed by market fads or macro chatter—it's driven by fundamentals. Dave Iben, true to his contrarian roots, increases his exposure when value improves, not when price momentum builds. For him, falling prices signal opportunity—not danger. It's difficult to maintain this kind of patience. 'We're not in the prediction game. We're in the patience game,' says Rob Hansen. It's a simple philosophy but incredibly difficult to execute, especially in volatile environments where panic and crowd psychology dominate. And yet, that's precisely what makes these managers exceptional. They don't chase. They don't flinch. They stick. Over time, it's this kind of unshakable discipline—built into their investment DNA—that transforms ordinary returns into extraordinary ones. Venn For The Three Profiled Managers Though their strategies differ—deep value, quality growth, and intrinsic value—these three managers share a common foundation. At the intersection lies what truly drives long-term success: discipline, capital preservation, process over prediction, patience, and a commitment to compounding. It's not the label that matters, it's the mindset. That shared core is where the real edge lives. What sets these managers apart isn't just their knowledge, it's the structure around them. Teams, frameworks, and decades of experience help them stay disciplined when it matters most. For most investors, especially those managing multiple demands, that kind of consistency is difficult to build alone. The pressure to react, to achieve something, is relentless. That's a big part of why I started my firm, The Edge. We focus on catalyst-driven special situations—like spinoffs, restructurings, and insider buying—because those are moments when something real is changing inside a company, even if the market hasn't noticed yet. That's where patience and process pay off. Our job is to assist investors in distinguishing early turning points from the noise. We do this not by guessing cycles, but by understanding when the fundamentals are shifting. Dave Iben digs where others don't. Vontobel waits while others react. Vulcan redefines investing value on its terms. Their portfolios may look different across geographies, sectors, and holdings, but they're all anchored by the same foundation: clarity of thought, conviction in process, and discipline under pressure. They know what they own, why they own it, and when to act. That same edge, clarity inside complexity—is precisely what my firm has been providing for nearly 20 years. If you are a fund manager investing, let's talk.
