Latest news with #migrantcrossings
Telegraph
6 hours ago
- Climate
- Telegraph
Why Britain faces its worst ever summer for migrant crossings
Good summer weather could lead to record Channel migrant crossings this year, Home Office data is expected to show. The number of 'red days' – when Border Force expects a surge in small boats due to calm seas – have been 'unusually high' in 2024-25, according to official figures due to be published on Tuesday. Preliminary data up until the end of March this year showed that there were 182 red days in 2024-25 compared with 108 in 2023-24, 159 in 2022-23 and 164 in 2021-22. Ministers will claim that the figures go some way to explain why the first five months of this year have seen a record 14,812 crossings, up 42 per cent on the same period in 2024. The rising number of 'red days' is also combined with a steady increase in the number of migrants being packed onto the dinghies, from 28 per boat in 2021 to 56 in 2025, up until the end of March. In 2024/25, there were more than 100 boats with more than 80 migrants on board, up from 31 in the previous year and just two in 2021/22. Meanwhile, the Met Office's three-month forecast suggests the UK is heading for a heatwave over the summer with a 45 per cent chance it will be hotter than normal. Rain and wind speeds are predicted to be close to normal over the same period. If the clear weather continues, independent modelling suggests that crossings by migrants are on course to hit a yearly record-equalling total of between 45,000 and 50,000, unless measures planned or already introduced by UK and French Governments can reverse the trend. Based on current weather patterns, the statistical modelling by researcher Dr Richard Wood forecasts that arrivals will hit nearly 46,000 this year – on a par with 2022's record and 20 per cent higher than last year's total. His research shows the weather is so critical that the odds of an unviable day, when there will be no crossings, increase by 11 per cent for every centimetre of wave height, reduce by six per cent for every degree of sea temperature and rise by 10 per cent for each hour of eight to 12 knot westerly winds. It means that migrant arrivals on 'viable' or 'red' days are two per cent lower for every centimetre of wave height, three per cent higher for every degree of sea temperature and four per cent higher for every hour in the day when a medium southerly wind blows the small boats towards the UK coast. The Government does not publish its criteria for determining when it will declare a 'red day,' which acts as an alert to Border Force, coastguards and RNLI to prepare for a surge in crossings. The Telegraph conducted its own analysis based on wind speeds, visibility, rainfall, wave height and sea surface temperature, which showed a lower number of red days than those projected by the Home Office. However, it still suggested Sir Keir Starmer had a higher number of red days in the four months to the end of April this year – at 27 – and a higher average rate of crossings per red day at 141.7. This compared to 24 red days with a rate of 121.6 for Rishi Sunak. Asked if the Government's decision to publish data on the number of red days for the first time was a ploy to blame the weather for crossings, Sir Keir's spokesman said: 'As the Home Secretary has said before, we have to get to a position where the level of crossings is not reliant on the weather. 'That means breaking the hold that these criminal gangs have established over this trade and breaking the link between crossings and the weather, such that we're stopping people from making these dangerous journeys, whatever the weather.'
Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Times
Up to 50,000 migrants could cross Channel this year
Britain is on course for up to 50,000 migrant crossings this year according to new analysis after daily arrivals topped 1,000 for the first time this year and a new row broke out with the French. Home Office figures revealed 1,195 migrants arrived in 19 boats on Saturday — the highest daily tally so far this year and the fourth highest figure recorded. The French prevented a further ten boats from entering the water, according to UK government sources. However, the French rescued only 184 migrants from the sea on Saturday, despite agreeing in February to amend laws to allow police to intercept boats in shallow waters. Intelligence gathered by Border Force has estimated that more than 2,000 migrants are waiting to make the journey amid forecasts of a 'catastrophic' summer of crossings. Videos posted on TikTok showed migrants celebrating as they crossed the Channel packed into unseaworthy dinghies. Saturday's arrivals took the total number to have crossed so far this year to 14,811 — the highest figure recorded for the first five months of the year and 42 per cent higher than this time last year. Analysis by The Times, using similar modelling as previous Border Force methods to estimate future arrivals, has forecast that a further 35,000 are on course to arrive by the end of the year. This would take the final tally for 2025 to 50,000 crossings, according to a formula that has accurately predicted monthly crossings in previous years. A Border Force source said it did not recognise this figure and suggested the number would be lower. John Healey, the defence secretary, branded the scenes on Saturday 'shocking' and showed Britain had 'lost control of its borders'. But he rejected suggestions from Nigel Farage that the government should use the Royal Navy to stop the boats crossing the Channel by intercepting them and returning them to France. Healey told Times Radio: 'The Royal Navy is a part of defending the country, not policing the borders. They have the equipment to do that job, not a border force job. They'll back up with intelligence, with surveillance, with communications, with operational control and we're willing to play a part where we've got a special contribution to play. 'But the first job of the defence forces is to keep the country safe and that's my job as defence secretary.' Farage hit back, arguing that the strategy of deploying navy boats to pick up and return migrant boats was effective in Australia when Tony Abbott, the prime minister at the time, instructed the authorities to turn back boats. The Reform UK leader said: 'I would have thought protecting our borders is the primary task of the Royal Navy. If that's not the job of the Royal Navy then I don't know why he's the defence secretary. 'The idea that the Royal Navy isn't there to defend the borders is ridiculous. If it absolutely comes to it then we'd get the Royal Navy to do what Tony Abbott did when he towed boats back to Indonesia. The whole world went mad but it soon stopped the boats.' The French have intercepted just 38 per cent of boats this year, down from 45 per cent last year and 47 per cent in 2023. It is the lowest rate since small boats began ferrying migrants to the UK on a regular basis in 2018 and has come despite a three-year, £480 million deal Britain struck with France to help intercept migrants in 2023. Healey said it was a 'really big problem' that the French authorities were unable to intervene to intercept the boats three months on from agreeing to amend its laws. Local mayors on the French coast said that police officers often faced dangers when intercepting migrants GARETH FULLER/PA Calling on the French to follow through on their pledge, Healey told Sky News: 'They're not doing it, but for the first time we've got the level of co-operation needed, we've got the agreement that they will change the way they work. Our concentration now is to push them to get that into operation, so they can intercept these smugglers and stop these people in the boats, not just on the shore. 'That'll be part of, I hope, dealing with this absolutely intolerable problem.' The defence secretary said Britain had 'lost control of its borders over the last five years'. Asked to give his reaction to the numbers that crossed on Saturday, he said: 'Pretty shocking, those scenes. We saw the smugglers launching elsewhere and coming around like a taxi to pick them up.' Photos have emerged of more than half a dozen French police officers standing by as they watched migrants enter the water to clamber on to boats. One officer was seen taking photos of the scenes on a beach at Gravelines, near Dunkirk. Local mayors in the region have highlighted the dangers for police on the beaches. Marc Sarpaux, the mayor of Audinghen, west of Calais, said that two officers had been taken to hospital after being pelted with stones by migrants. Bruno Retailleau, the French interior minister, was silent on the daily record high of migrant crossings. Instead, he posted on social media about Paris Saint-Germain's victory
The Independent
3 days ago
- General
- The Independent
Small boats leave France after week of no migrant crossing arrivals
Six migrant boats have left France in the first attempt to cross the English Channel and reach the UK in days. A group including children was seen boarding at a beach in Gravelines, between Calais and Dunkirk. French authorities were then pictured escorting a small boat. There have not been any arrivals of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats for a week, the latest Home Office figures show. But 2025 is on course to set a record for Channel crossings, with more than 13,000 people having arrived so far, up 30% on the number recorded at this point last year, according to analysis of the data by the PA news agency. Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to crack down on small boat crossings including with measures targeting smuggling gangs. The Home Secretary has previously said gangs have been taking advantage of a higher number of calm weather days to make crossings. Sunny weather is forecast on Saturday with some areas potentially hitting 27C.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- General
- Yahoo
Small boats leave France after week of no migrant crossing arrivals
Six migrant boats have left France in the first attempt to cross the English Channel and reach the UK in days. A group including children was seen boarding at a beach in Gravelines, between Calais and Dunkirk. French authorities were then pictured escorting a small boat. There have not been any arrivals of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats for a week, the latest Home Office figures show. But 2025 is on course to set a record for Channel crossings, with more than 13,000 people having arrived so far, up 30% on the number recorded at this point last year, according to analysis of the data by the PA news agency. Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to crack down on small boat crossings including with measures targeting smuggling gangs. The Home Secretary has previously said gangs have been taking advantage of a higher number of calm weather days to make crossings. Sunny weather is forecast on Saturday with some areas potentially hitting 27C.
Daily Mail
17-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Ranchers sound alarm on new migrant crossing hotspot
Ranchers along the southern border are sounding the alarm on a terrifying new hotspot where migrant crossings are exploding. The vast and remote Big Bend area of Texas is now so busy with illegal migrant crossings that it's been described as 'hotbed' been called a 'hotbed' by Congressman Tony Gonzales. 'What I'm hearing from my ranchers is that, for everyone else, they've gotten relief, but that area—the Big Bend Sector—continues to be a hotbed in particular,' Rep. Gonzales said during a Capitol Hill hearing Thursday. Unlike the rest of the US-Mexico boundary, where migrant encounters have plummeted , Big Bend is seeing higher numbers than it did when Pres. Joe. Biden was in office, according to federal statistics by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP.) In October, 291 encounters with illegal immigrants were reported by US Border Patrol. Last month, under Trump, that number shot up to 324. The numbers might seem low, but what's more concerning is who is not being caught. The sheriff who's in charge of 91 miles of Big Bend told he knows others are successfully sneaking into the country here. 'We have been stumbling onto groups from out west (that) we didn't know they crossed, and while tracking other groups, came across their sign (footprints,' Terrell County Sheriff Thaddeus Cleveland, also a retired Border Patrol agent, told DM. Traditionally, migrants have avoided this sector, opting for easier entries in urban zones. 'Some nights we don't apprehend anyone. Then we might have a group of 10 or so that week,' Cleveland explained of what is usual. In recent weeks, the sheriff's office has aided the Border Patrol agents in tracking down as many as 60 people in one week--often dressed in camouflaged garments given to them by smugglers to help them blend in with the terrain. Big Bend has been a low-traffic region traditionally because it's so rugged and absent of big cities on either side of the international boundary. To get into the US, migrants have to cross the Rio Grande river with fast-flowing water and rapids. If they make it over successfully, they have to immediately scale cliffs-- a task that can take a day or two. After that, it takes at least three to four days to walk to the nearest town, Sanderson. There are no roads in this isolated desert where the possibility of breaking a leg, getting bit by a snake and being abandoned by the cartel smuggling guide is high for migrants. If they reach the 700-person town, they can access the highways where smugglers are waiting to pick up the illegal immigrants and drive them to their next destination inside the US. Big Bend is also sandwiched between two big hot spots: El Paso, currently the busiest entry point , to the West and Del Rio to the East. 'As other parts of the border receive more resources, it will force people out this way,' the sheriff added. Most of the people making illegal entry here are Mexican citizens on their way to the fields of California to pick America's produce, Cleveland stated. Since Trump took over in January, two Army Stryker tanks have been stationed there. However, the area is just too big, with 91 miles of border between just two counties. There's only 50 federal immigration agents stationed in Sanderson, plus another 15 on loan from other parts of the agency. 'Is there anything that we can do to alleviate some of their high foot traffic,' Rep. Gonzales pressed CBP Commissioner Pete Flores during the congressional hearing. As part of his response, the top dog at CBP admitted the Border Patrol has more manpower than ever before. 'We continue to plan for where we see problem spots or hot spots along the border, and we continue to re-evaluate how we're deploying our agents,' Flores responded. Sheriff Cleveland believes more boots on the ground is the solution. 'What is needed is technology and even more important, more men and women with badges,' he said.
