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BBC News
13-05-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
India-Pakistan conflict: How real is the risk of nuclear war?
In the latest India-Pakistan stand-off, there were no ultimatums, no red the cycle of military retaliation, veiled signals and swift international mediation quietly evoked the region's most dangerous shadow. The crisis didn't spiral towards nuclear war, but it was a reminder of how quickly tensions here can summon that scientists have modelled how easily things could unravel. A 2019 study by a global team of scientists opened with a nightmare scenario where a terrorist attack on India's parliament in 2025 triggers a nuclear exchange with Pakistan. Six years later, a real-world stand-off - though contained by a US-brokered ceasefire on Saturday - stoked fears of a full-blown conflict. It also revived uneasy memories of how fragile stability in the region can be. As the crisis escalated, Pakistan sent "dual signals" - retaliating militarily while announcing a National Command Authority (NCA) meeting, a calculated reminder of its nuclear capability. The NCA oversees control and potential use of the country's nuclear arsenal. Whether this move was symbolic, strategic or a genuine alert, we may never know. It also came just as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly stepped in to defuse the Trump said the US didn't just broker a ceasefire - it averted a "nuclear conflict". On Monday, in an address to the nation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: "[There] is no tolerance for nuclear blackmail; India will not be intimidated by nuclear threats."Any terrorist safe haven operating under this pretext will face precise and decisive strikes," Modi and Pakistan each possess about 170 nuclear weapons, according to the think-tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). As of January 2024, Sipri estimated there were 12,121 nuclear warheads worldwide. Of these, about 9,585 were held in military stockpiles, with 3,904 actively deployed - 60 more than the previous year. The US and Russia together account for more than 8,000 nuclear bulk of both India's and Pakistan's deployed arsenals lies in their land-based missile forces, though both are developing nuclear triads capable of delivering warheads by land, air and sea, according to Christopher Clary, a security affairs expert at the University at Albany in the US. "India likely has a larger air leg (aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons) than Pakistan. While we know the least of Pakistan's naval leg, it is reasonable to assess that India's naval leg is more advanced and more capable than Pakistan's sea-based nuclear force," he told the reason, Mr Clary said, is that Pakistan has invested nowhere near the "time or money" that India has in building a nuclear-powered submarine, giving India a "clear qualitative" edge in naval nuclear testing nuclear weapons in 1998, Pakistan has never formally declared an official nuclear doctrine. India, by contrast, adopted a no-first-use policy following its own 1998 tests. But this stance has shown signs of softening. In 2003, India reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in response to chemical or biological attacks - effectively allowing for first use under certain ambiguity emerged in 2016, when then–defence minister Manohar Parrikar suggested India shouldn't feel "bound" by the policy, raising questions about its long-term credibility. (Parrikar clarified that this was his own opinion.) The absence of a formal doctrine doesn't mean Pakistan lacks one - official statements, interviews and nuclear developments offer clear clues to its operational posture, according to Sadia Tasleem of Carnegie Endowment for International nuclear threshold remains vague, but in 2001, Khalid Kidwai - then head of the Strategic Plans Division of the NCA - outlined four red lines: major territorial loss, destruction of key military assets, economic strangulation or political 2002, then-president Pervez Musharraf clarified that "nuclear weapons are aimed solely at India", and would only be used if "the very existence of Pakistan as a state" was at his memoir, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote that he was jolted awake at night to speak with an unnamed "Indian counterpart" who feared Pakistan was preparing to use nuclear weapons during the 2019 stand-off with the same time, Pakistani media quoted a senior official issuing a stark warning to India: "I hope you know what the [National Command Authority] means and what it constitutes. I said that we will surprise you. Wait for that surprise… You have chosen a path of war without knowing the consequences for the peace and security of the region."During the 1999 Kargil War, Pakistan's then-foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmed warned that the country would not "hesitate to use any weapon" to defend its territory. Years later, US official Bruce Riedel revealed that intelligence indicated Pakistan was preparing its nuclear arsenal for possible deployment. But there is scepticism on both sides over such claims. Former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria wrote in his memoir that Pompeo overstated both the risk of nuclear escalation and the US role in calming the conflict in 2019. And during Kargil, Pakistan "knew the Indian Air Force wouldn't cross into its territory" - so there was no real trigger for even an implicit nuclear threat, insist Pakistani analysts. "Strategic signalling reminds the world that any conflict can spiral - and with India and Pakistan, the stakes are higher due to the nuclear overhang. But that doesn't mean either side is actively threatening nuclear use," Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defence analyst, told the nuclear escalation can happen by accident too. "This could happen by human error, hackers, terrorists, computer failures, bad data from satellites and unstable leaders," Prof Alan Robock of Rutgers University, lead author of the landmark 2019 paper by a global team of scientists, told the March 2022, India accidentally fired a nuclear-capable cruise missile which travelled 124km (77 miles) into Pakistani territory before crashing, reportedly damaging civilian property. Pakistan said India failed to use the military hotline or issue a public statement for two days. Had this occurred during heightened tensions, the incident could have spiralled into serious conflict, experts say. (Months later, India's government sacked three air force officers for the "accidental firing of a missile".)Yet, the danger of nuclear war remains "relatively small" between India and Pakistan, according to Mr Clary. "So long as there is not major ground combat along the border, the dangers of nuclear use remain relatively small and manageable," he said. "In ground combat, the 'use it or lose it' problem is propelled by the possibility that your ground positions will be overrun by the enemy." ('Use it or lose it' refers to the pressure a nuclear-armed country may feel to launch its weapons before they are destroyed in a first strike by an adversary.) Sumit Ganguly, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, believes that "neither India nor Pakistan wants to be labelled as the first violator of the post-Hiroshima nuclear taboo"."Furthermore, any side that resorts to the use of nuclear weapons would face substantial retaliation and suffer unacceptable casualties," Mr Ganguly told the the same time, both India and Pakistan appear to be beefing up their nuclear arsenal. With new delivery systems in development, four plutonium reactors and expanding uranium enrichment, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could reach around 200 warheads by the late 2020s, according to The Nuclear Notebook, researched by the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project. And as of early 2023, India was estimated to have about 680kg of weapons-grade plutonium - enough for roughly 130-210 nuclear warheads, according to the International Panel on Fissile repeated crises and close calls, both sides have so far managed to avoid a catastrophic slide into nuclear conflict. "The deterrent is still holding. All Pakistanis did was to respond to conventional strikes with counter-conventional strikes of their own," writes Umer Farooq, an Islamabad-based the presence of nuclear weapons injects a constant undercurrent of risk - one that can never be entirely ruled out, no matter how experienced the leadership or how restrained the intentions."When nuclear weapons can be involved, there is always an unacceptable level of danger,"John Erath, senior policy director at the non-profit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told the BBC."The Indian and Pakistani governments have navigated these situations in the past, so the risk is small. But with nuclear weapons, even a small risk is too large."
The Independent
10-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
India-Pakistan latest: Pakistan launches retaliation strikes after ‘India targets military bases'
Pakistan 's military says it has begun retaliating against 'Indian aggression' and initiated what it called 'Operation Bunyanun Marsoos' bombing strikes. Early on Saturday local time, Pakistan accused India of attacking several of its military airbases, including Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, a crucial site less than six miles from Islamabad. In response, Pakistani officials said that they had targeted several air bases and a missile storage facility, including in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir. Explosions were heard near the Pathankot military airfield in Punjab and Udhampur air force base. Residents also reported loud explosions in the city of Srinagar. It is the latest escalation in a conflict triggered by a massacre last month that India blames Pakistan for. Pakistan's Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry gave a live TV broadcast on state television where he warned India to "wait for our response." The Government of Pakistan also posted on X: "India must now prepare for Pakistan's response. The Armed Forces of Pakistan are fully prepared to defend the homeland, airspace, and national security." Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called an urgent meeting of the National Command Authority on Saturday. Pakistan has closed its airspace to all air traffic on Saturday, a Pakistan Airports Authority spokesperson said. Rubio speaks to Pakistani army chief US secretary of state Marco Rubio spoke with Pakistani army chief Asim Munir earlier today, according to the US Department of State. He offered US assistance in starting constructive talks in order to avoid future conflicts, urging both parties to find ways to deescalate. Namita Singh10 May 2025 04:22 At least one dead and two wounded by shelling in Indian-controlled Kashmir A civil administrator was killed and two people wounded in Pakistani shelling in a frontier town near the highly militarised Line of Control in Indian-controlled Kashmir, officials said on Saturday. Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah said the official was killed when a Pakistani shell hit his house in southern Rajouri town early this morning. Police said the official's two staff members were critically and Pakistani soldiers have heavily exchanged artillery and gunfire along the Line of Control that divides the disputed Kashmir region between the two nuclear-armed rivals. Indian officials said Pakistani troops barraged their posts overnight with artillery, mortars and gunfire at multiple locations in Kashmir. They said Indian soldiers responded. Saturday's killing takes the death toll in Indian-administered Kashmir to 19 since Wednesday when the two countries' latest military standoff began. Pakistan has said Indian mortar and artillery fire has killed 17 civilians in Pakistan-administered Kashmir in the same period. Namita Singh10 May 2025 04:16 Pakistan says it targeted S-400 air defence system in India Pakistan's military said that its retaliatory strikes against India are ongoing. According to a statement by the military, the Pakistan Air Force's JF-17 Thunder aircraft launched hypersonic missiles that struck a key Indian military facility in Adampur, in Punjab's Jalandhar district where India has an air force base. The military claimed that the Indian S-400 air defense system was destroyed in the strike on Adampur. India has not commented on any of the claims and there was no way to independently verify the information. Namita Singh10 May 2025 04:14 Pakistan shuts down flights countrywide Pakistan has shut down every airport for all flight operations, according to the country's civil aviation authority. In a statement, it said the decision to close Pakistan's airspace for all flights was made because of the developing situation following the attacks made by India. Namita Singh10 May 2025 04:01 Indian prime minister holds security meeting before Pak missile launch Hours before Pakistan's claim of India launching missiles into its territories to target airbases, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with top security officials, including defence minister Rajnath Singh, national security adviser Ajit Doval and the chiefs of the army, navy and air force. A video released by Mr Modi's office overnight showed one of the Indian military officials taking notes of the discussion. The video did not include sound. Namita Singh10 May 2025 03:57 Pakistan launched Al-Fatah missile Pakistan's military launched a retaliatory strike with its Al-Fatah missile after naming it in memory of the Pakistani children killed during India's strikes in various parts of the country this week, according to state-run Pakistan Television. Calling it Pakistan's counterstrike, state-run Pakistani media said the missile symbolised the nation's resolve and served as a tribute to the young lives lost. Pakistan Television said that Pakistan would never forget the children who were killed, emphasising that their memory lived on as a symbol of national unity and resilience. Namita Singh10 May 2025 03:53 Tourists flee Amritsar Sirens blared for more than two hours on Friday in Amritsar, which houses the Golden Temple revered by Sikhs. Tourists fled the city by road as the airport was closed. "We really wanted to stay but the loud sounds, sirens, and blackouts are giving us sleepless nights. Our families back home are worried for us so we have booked a cab and are leaving," said a Briton who did not want to be identified. Schools were closed in the Bikaner region of India's desert state of Rajasthan, and residents near the Pakistan border said they were told to consider moving in with relatives elsewhere or using government-arranged accommodation. Families flee border areas and people stockpile food Residents in both Pakistan and India rushed to stockpile foods and other essential supplies, while families living near the border fled to safer areas. Armed clashes between the nuclear-armed nations have been escalating, in the worst fighting between the two countries in nearly three decades. In the Indian state of Punjab, Amanpreet Dhillon, 26, said many families in his village just 13 km (8 miles) from the border with Pakistan had sent women and children to safer areas. In Indian-administered Kashmir's Uri district, residents said many fled overnight after houses were struck by shelling, some taking shelter behind rocks or in bunkers. "We have never seen such intense shelling in our life," said Bashir Ahmad, 45, in the town of Baramulla in Uri. "It was a nightmare." Jane Dalton10 May 2025 03:48 Pakistan Super League follows India in postponing matches Pakistan Super League follows Indian Premier League in postponing matches The PSL had originally moved some of its teams and infrastructure to the United Arab Emirates. Jane Dalton10 May 2025 03:47 Why India and Pakistan don't fight wars like other countries Jane Dalton10 May 2025 03:46
Arab News
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Pakistan vows retaliation, saying three bases targeted by Indian missiles
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Military Spokesperson Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said on Saturday India had attacked multiple bases in Pakistan, vowing retaliation. In the latest confrontation between the two longstanding enemies that began on Wednesday, India said it hit nine 'terrorist infrastructure' sites in Pakistan in retaliation for what it says was a deadly Islamabad-backed attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22. Pakistan says it was not involved and denied that any of the sites hit by India were militant bases. It said it shot down five Indian aircraft on Wednesday. Pakistan's military said on Friday it shot down 77 drones from India at multiple locations, including the two largest cities of Karachi and Lahore, and the garrison city of Rawalpindi, home to the army's headquarters. On Saturday early morning, panic rang out in Pakistan as reports emerged that Pakistan Air Force's Nur Khan base had been hit. The Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, where the military has its headquarters, is around 10 kilometers from the capital, Islamabad. In televised remarks, the military spokesman said three bases, Nur Khan, PAF Base Murid, an operational flying base of the Pakistan Air Force located near the village of Murid in the Chakwal District of Punjab, and one in Shorkot, had been targeted by Indian missiles. 'Now you just wait for our response,' Chaudhry said. The reports came after Chaudhry said India fired ballistic missiles that fell in Indian territory, announcing it in a sudden statement on national broadcaster at 1:50 a.m. local time on Saturday (2050 GMT), with no details provided to support the claim. 'I want to give you the shocking news that India fired six ballistic missiles from Adampur. One of the ballistic missiles hit in Adampur, the rest of the five missiles hit in the Indian Punjab area of Amritsar,' the army's spokesman said in his short video statement. Amritsar's district commissioner in a text message between Friday and Saturday said: 'Don't panic. Siren is sounding as we are under red alert. Do not panic, as before, keep lights off, move away from windows. We will inform you when ready to resume power supply.' Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday's conflagration, according to casualty estimates on both sides of the border that have not been independently verified.
