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Hindustan Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Turkey's caliphate delusions and India's security concerns
Turkey, once embodying Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's secular, modern vision, now stumbles under the iron-fisted whims of a man chasing the ghosts of the past. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has gone from reformer to radical, from statesman to strongman. His current avatar? A self-styled Caliph of the 21st century, broadcasting delusions of grandeur across the Muslim world. Let us not sugar-coat it, this is not religious revivalism. It is a well-rehearsed, high-budget cosplay of the Ottoman Empire, starring Erdoğan as the lone ranger of the Ummah. His bromance with Pakistan and hostility toward India are not products of ideology but ambition. He treats it as an Influence Olympics and he is doing whatever it takes to win gold. Cloaked in nostalgia and supercharged by social media, Erdoğan's neo-Ottoman propaganda seeks to radicalise young minds from Kashmir to Kerala. His tactics are straight from the dictator's playbook — mask authoritarianism with messianic rhetoric, fund proxies, push propaganda, and exploit identity fault lines. And India, one of the most diverse nations and an exemplar of pluralism, must level up. His drones fly across the Line of Control (LoC), but they carry more than narcotics or arms, they carry messages. Messages that say, 'We're watching, we're coming, and we have got technology too.' The Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) from across the LoC are manufactured in Turkey and rebranded in Pakistan, similar to Chinese missiles with Pakistani names. Same chips, new lies. It's like watching bootleg missiles in a bad spy movie, except this is real. Whether we like it or not, Turkey has built a formidable drone warfare industry, punching far above its weight. Its UAVs have altered battlefields in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and reshaped dynamics in multiple wars across the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) region. India needs to stop playing nice and start playing smart. Equip Turkey's adversaries, Armenia, Cyprus, Greece, Saudi Arabia, with indigenous drone tech, cyber-defence systems and engage them in sharper diplomacy. Give Erdoğan a reality check: India does not just vibe, it retaliates. And while Erdoğan plays Sultan on TikTok, real States such as the UAE, backed by Saudi Arabia and Egypt are pushing back — with dignity, not delusional dreams. West Asia is not falling for his bait, and neither should India. These nations are not just challenging his economic model but his ideological export factory. The time has come for a coalition of civilisations, a bloc to counter the radicalism of the Turkey-Pakistan duet. Their CVs are written in blood: Armenians, Assyrians, Greeks, Kashmiris, and Bengalis. Their history of genocidal experiences is no footnote. India must stop doom-scrolling while Erdoğan's bots work overtime. The Turkish dissident Gülenist movement – led by Fethullah Gülen and termed by the Erdoğan administration as the Fethullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) — has been crushed inside Turkey, but is alive globally. This offers India a diplomatic opportunity. It should offer asylum and give them platforms. Make India the new Istanbul for liberal Turkish exiles. We did not ask for this ideological war, but we cannot afford to lose it. Meanwhile, the Turkish India-bashing machinery and its infrastructure is vast and well-funded. Over the years, State-backed Turkish media agencies such as the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) and Anadolu Agency (AA), along with countless non-profits and academic institutions, have been hiring ISI proxies from Pakistan as well as Jammu and Kashmir. Similarly, Turkish NGOs such as the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), the Diyanet Foundation and the Turkey Youth Foundation (TUGVA) are running as religious start-ups and trying to dent India's sovereignty. Funded by Ankara and cloaked in cultural exchange, they run recruitment drives without even informing Indian missions. Students lured through flashy scholarships are groomed into soft agents of radicalism. It constitutes academic gaslighting at its finest. Let us set the record straight: Any Indian or Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) cardholder who supports Turkey's radical designs or acts against Indian interests should be stripped of status and access. National identity is not a prop. It is a privilege. Erdoğan is also using entertainment as his weapon of choice. Turkish serials like Ertugrul and Barbaroslar are Caliphate-core propaganda. These shows are not just binge-worthy, they have brainwash potential. The Kashmir Valley is saturated with clips romanticising religious conquest and resistance — Instagram reels today, ideological grenades tomorrow. The Imam Hatip schools, funded directly by Erdoğan, act as radical production houses, manufacturing the next generation of zealots, influencers and apologists. Not to forget the IHH, masquerading as a humanitarian NGO, while running parallel political missions in Kashmir and beyond. Erdoğan is a person of binaries, dichotomies and paradoxes. And while advertising itself as a modern Islamic power committed to dialogue with much fanfare, Turkey's State machinery under Erdoğan simultaneously funds radical voices, fugitives and known extremists in hiding. This duplicity must be exposed. Erdoğan is not a political phoenix but a paranoid populist. Aging, erratic, and increasingly isolated, he knows his time is short. That is why he is sprinting toward the mirage of Ummah leadership with one foot in delusion and the other in desperation. India must wake up, show up and scale up. Use media, diplomacy and diaspora networks. Let Erdoğan's own people turn the tide. We don't need missiles to counter every menace: Ideas are mightier than drones. This is not just an external threat. We can no longer afford to treat Turkey's antics as distant drama. This is not fiction. It is Erdoğan's audition for Caliph, and India must ensure he never makes the cut. Abhishek Singhvi is a senior four-term sitting MP, member, Congress Working Committee, and national spokesperson, Congress. Akash Kumar Singh is a doctoral scholar at the Special Centre for National Security Studies, JNU, and a former LAMP fellow. The views expressed are personal. Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines to 100 year archives.
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First Post
22-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
How Turkiye's pro-Pakistan stance will cost it dearly
When a nation perceives geopolitical realities through ideological blinkers, it often risks alienating crucial global partners. This is what happened with Turkiye. Its recent posture following the heinous terror attack in Pahalgam, where innocent Indian lives were lost, reveals Ankara's insensitive and uncalculated diplomatic stance. It was also Turkiye's serious misjudgement of India's strategic resolve. To India, Ankara's support for Pakistan, even in the wake of such brutality, signals that its foreign policy continues to be shaped by neo-Ottoman Islamic identity politics than realpolitik. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD For India, a nation that has endured decades of cross-border terrorism orchestrated from Pakistani soil, Turkiye's immature response post-Pahalgam has not just struck a wrong chord but it is unforgivable and politically and humanely insensitive. Ankara's casual dismissal of India's non-escalatory counter-terrorism strike, Operation Sindoor, as 'provocative' was not only ill-informed but also diplomatically reckless. What is even worse are the reports claiming Turkiye's alleged supply of military equipment, drones, arms and ammo to Pakistan. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) trackers while analysing flight path data have indicated that one or possibly as many as six C-130E Hercules aircraft landed in Karachi suggesting a significant transfer of military equipment to Pakistan. The supplies reportedly included Bayraktar TB2 drones, Songar and Yiha drone systems, T-155 Fırtına self-propelled howitzers, and MAM-L smart micro munitions, among other advanced weaponry. Additionally, on 30 April, Turkiye had sent a high-level military intelligence delegation headed by Lt Gen Yasir Kodioglu to Pakistan. While Ankara dismissed such reports as mere logistical coincidences and cited 'refuelling stops' and 'pre-scheduled visits' by its top military officials, symbolisms matter in diplomacy. Turkiye made no effort to delay such high-level engagements amidst India-Pakistan tensions. This pattern of thoughtless solidarity with Pakistan only showcases Ankara's deeply entrenched aspirational pan-Islamist ambitions, even at the cost of alienating emerging powers like India. Unfortunately for Ankara, this choice is not without consequences. At least, not this time. Even historically, India and Turkiye have continued to share lukewarm ties and the relations have been marred by Ankara's consistent endorsement of Pakistan's narrative on Kashmir. Yet, in recent years, both countries made considerable efforts to repair and re-energise their relations particularly through economic cooperation and diplomatic outreach. Bilateral trade between the two nations had reached $11.2 billion in 2023–24, with efforts underway to increase it to $15 billion by 2025. India exported petroleum products ($3.1 billion), automobiles ($1.4 billion), and pharmaceuticals ($710 million) to Turkiye, while importing machinery, iron and steel, chemicals, and construction materials. At least 310 Indian companies had ongoing commercial ties with Turkish counterparts and over $340 million in investment and procurement agreements were either under negotiation or expansion by 2025. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If India decides to scale back these engagements especially by discouraging its private sector and state enterprises from trade and FDI with Turkiye, the ripple effect on Ankara's already-ailing economy could be significant. Turkiye's economy with a 65 per cent inflation, record unemployment of over 10.6 per cent, and a lira depreciation of more than 40 per cent in 2024, is heavily reliant on external trade and tourism revenue. Indian trade contributes about 3.6 per cent of Turkiye's total global imports and exports. Additionally, Indian tourist footfall over 3.3 lakh in 2024, contributed close to $250 million. This represent one of the largest Asian inbound markets. A decline of even 30–35 per cent in Indian trade and tourist activity has the ability to negatively affect Turkiye by $2.5 billion annually. Moreover, Indian infrastructure and technology firms especially lucrative for urban mobility and solar energy projects in Ankara and Izmir are now reviewing their commitments. There are indications that India's exit from these public-private partnerships could delay project timelines and increase borrowing costs for Turkiye by nearly 8–10 per cent. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India also demonstrated its commitment by dispatching one of its most seasoned diplomats, Ambassador Muktesh Pardeshi, G20 Secretariat official, to engage Ankara through strategic diplomacy. Ambassador Pardeshi's appointment symbolised New Delhi's intent to de-hyphenate the Turkiye-Pakistan-India triangle and pursue ties based on mutual benefit. But Ankara squandered this opportunity too. Instead of building bridges, it dug deeper trenches. What will hurt Turkiye the most this time is the anger and disappointment of the Indian public. The collective memory of Indians does not erase easily. Indians will remember that Turkiye chose to stand with Pakistan and speak out against India's security actions especially after India had stood by Ankara during its worst earthquake in February 2023 through Operation Dost. Tourism, one of Turkiye's major soft power industries, will take a major hit. More than 3.3 lakh Indian tourists visited Turkiye in 2024 contributing substantially to the hospitality sector. Several reports suggest a 28 per cent drop in bookings from Indian travel agencies for Turkiye, with Greece, Egypt, and the UAE now preferred over Istanbul or Antalya. Academic exchanges too are being cut. Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), Jamia Millia Islamia, Hyderabad University, IIT Roorkee, Kanpur University (terminated MoU with Istanbul University) and Maulana Azad National Urdu University have declined to sign MoUs with Turkish universities. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India's Ministry of Civil Aviation and Bureau of Civil Aviation Security has also refused approval for airport security MoUs with Turkish entities such as Celebi. The Indian government is further considering curtailing imports of Turkish-made construction materials, automobile parts, and consumer goods. One of the most concerning vectors of Turkiye's influence in India lies in the operations of Diyanet, the state's Directorate of Religious Affairs, which has strategically funded Islamic scholarships and fellowships for Indian Muslims. Over 300 active Diyanet-sponsored scholarships were recorded in 2024 which specifically focused on students from South India and Jammu & Kashmir. These scholarships often take recipients to Istanbul or Ankara-based Islamic institutions where several centres have been reported to engage in anti-India narratives particularly concerning Kashmir. There are at least eight Diyanet-linked cultural centres operational in India in Hyderabad, Kozhikode, Lucknow, Srinagar, etc. These centres have allegedly been fostering religious education that subtly projects Ankara's Caliphate narrative and undermines India's secular ethos. Over the years, the Indian security establishment has grown increasingly wary of this 'soft indoctrination' strategy. It is interesting to note that amidst Turkiye's plummeting economy and high inflation rates with its currency at its lowest record of depreciation, Ankara has been offering lucrative jobs in Islamic theology, translation, diplomacy, and NGO work to Indian Muslims educated under its fellowship programmes. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In that context, the termination and refusal to renew MoUs with Turkish institutions is not merely a symbolic gesture of isolating Turkiye in response to its pro-Pakistan stance post-Pahalgam; it is also a strategic move to counter the growing challenge of Diyanet-led soft indoctrination in India. These academic disengagements signal a broader intent to curb Ankara's use of educational and cultural platforms to subtly propagate ideological narratives that undermine India's secular and sovereign fabric. Turkiye forgets that Indian Muslims, the second-largest Muslim population globally, overwhelmingly identify with the Indian state, not with transnational Islamic ambitions. India's understanding of Islamic extremism as a threat emanates from Pakistan's use of religion to fuel terrorism, not Islam as a faith. If Turkiye wants to be a peace partner, its gaze should turn toward India's inclusive Islamic mosaic, not towards Pakistan's exported jihadism. Turkiye's antagonism is not new. It blocked India's entry into the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for decades despite India housing more Muslims than most OIC members. Even when India was invited as a 'Guest of Honour' at the 2019 OIC summit in Abu Dhabi, Turkiye, alongside Pakistan, tried to sabotage the invite. Erdogan's repeated rants on Kashmir especially post-Article 370 removal have featured prominently in UN General Assembly speeches. It has always echoed Pakistan's narrative. Thus, it is clear that Erdogan's Turkiye is not neutral; it is ideologically bound to Islamabad even if it comes at the cost of economic interests and diplomatic goodwill. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India has begun to exercise measured but firm disassociation from Ankara. This includes dismantling Diyanet networks within India; curtailing tourism and urging travel advisories against non-essential travel to Turkiye; reviewing trade, especially in sectors with Turkish dependence, and exploring alternatives in Greece, the Balkans, and the UAE; and public diplomacy campaigns to counter Turkiye's disinformation on Kashmir. Ankara must understand that sympathy for terrorism has a cost. Operation Dost, India's humanitarian effort during Turkiye's earthquake was a gesture of friendship. Turkiye's response post-Pahalgam was a gesture of betrayal. Turkiye had a chance to reposition itself as a bridge between East and West. With shared civilisational ties, Sunni Hanafi linkages, and economic complementarities, India could have been a natural partner. But under Erdogan's pan-Islamist vision, Turkiye chose ideology over pragmatism. By supporting Pakistan, a country that exports terror, Ankara has chosen short-term solidarity over long-term strategy. India, and Indians, will not forget this. This time, Turkiye's naive and immature stance will cost it economically, diplomatically, and in public perception. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Dr Manjari Singh focuses on contemporary Middle Eastern affairs and is the author of 'India and the Gulf: A Security Perspective'. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
Time of India
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Recep For Trouble
Recep For Trouble Rudroneel Ghosh TNN Updated: May 15, 2025, 20:41 IST Türkiye president, who fashions himself as a neo-Ottoman sultan, also has a ruthless pragmatic streak. His support for Pakistan is strategic foray into South Asia to counter headwinds in Ankara & West Asia Indians are cancelling their travel plans to Türkiye in droves. Travel websites are no longer selling holiday packages to picturesque Cappadocia or Antalya. For, it didn't go unnoticed in India that during Operation Sindoor Pakistan military was using Turkish weapons to escalate the conflict. Initial investigations suggest that the hundreds of Pak drones deployed against India were of Turkish make. So, there's a growing demand now to boycott everything Turkish, from apples to Turkish delight. Ankara has solidly backed Islamabad in the military hostilities with New Delhi. And while Pak army chief Asim Munir and the military-ISI complex were seen to be the architects of the conflict, the figure who may have been egging on Rawalpindi GHQ is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan .
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Crackdown In Turkey Throttles European Energy
Befitting its status as a country bridging Europe and Asia, the Turkish government's massive crackdown on the country's Republican People's Party (CHP) opposition party and arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and leader of the CHP, has immediate implications for the entire region. Recent events are raising alarm bells in Europe that Turkish chaos could hurt an already energy-hungry Europe, which depends on Türkiye's energy transit. Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the country's strongman leader for the past twenty-two years and has not been shy about using power against the political competition. On March 18th, the university diploma of his key rival, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was abruptly revoked on an administrative technicality. This was an attempted political coup de grâs, as candidates for the presidency must have a university degree according to Turkish law. The transparent move immediately triggered accusations that Erdoğan was trying to stifle the opposition. Next, on the morning of March 19th, Imamoğlu's house was surrounded, and he was arrested on allegations of corruption and terrorism links, just days before he was about to be named presidential candidate of the CHP. Presidential elections are slated to be held in 2028, though they may occur earlier. Writing from prison on March 23rd, Imamoğlu declared: 'I have been imprisoned on the basis of vague hearsay from a handful of so-called 'confidential witnesses'. There is no conviction against me. I am a political prisoner." Apparently, many Turks agreed. Protests broke out as soon as Imamoğlu was arrested. Despite a government ban, the demonstrations grew to become the largest Türkiye has seen in over a decade, with crowd estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to half a million and more, and spread to more than 55 of Turkey's 81 provinces. They were met with a forceful crackdown. Over 1,400 people, including journalists, were arrested. Multiple media outlets were fined for covering the demonstrations. Nevertheless, millions turned out to vote for Imamoğlu to be the CHP's candidate for president. The stage is set for a political showdown, the opposition is not backing off, and neither is Erdoğan or his neo-Ottoman, religious conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). To better understand the dissatisfaction and distrust that the Turkish population is displaying, it is worth noting that the inflation rate has slowed to a still intolerable 38.10% a year, making life exceedingly difficult for the majority of people and fueling interest in getting someone with a new outlook into power. The political turmoil swiftly spilled over into Türkiye's economy. The MSCI Türkiye Index fell by 20.9%, signaling a sharp market reaction to the rising instability. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) surged to 324, a nearly 30% increase, signaling escalating risks and higher borrowing costs. The Turkish lira depreciated further, dropping as much as 12% right after Imamoğlu's arrest, despite the Turkish Central Bank spending $12 billion in foreign reserves to save the lira after it hit a record low. The central bank also raised interest rates to 46% overnight, from 42%. Despite the Central Bank's efforts to attract foreign direct investment, recent political developments have once again shaken investor confidence. This was best illustrated in a Bloomberg report describing how, during a meeting with a Turkish economist on March 19th where they were expecting good news, Wall Street investors watched in real-time as news alerts on their phones showed Turkish stocks seeing their largest drop since 2013, eroding trust in the country's stability in just 30 minutes. Investors looking at long-term investments like energy care about the rule of law, good governance, transparency, certainty, and stability for their returns. All of which increasingly authoritarian Türkiye lacks. The recent uproar demonstrated once more that there is no guarantee Erdoğan will follow sensible policies, and that instead he is willing to sacrifice political and fiscal stability on the altar of his ambitions to remain in office at all costs. Erdoğan talks a good game about his commitment to investor-friendly economic policies; however, the damage may have already been done and will cost Türkiye tens of billions of dollars. Türkiye is not rich in oil and gas, so it has turned to renewable energy as a key strategy to reduce its dependence on costly energy imports. With energy being a long-term infrastructure investment, those looking to invest in wind, solar, and hydro in Türkiye will likely withhold investment decisions, a costly dynamic as Türkiye has publicly declared it will invest $20 billion in renewable energy and infrastructure by 2030. By creating an environment hostile to foreign investment, Erdoğan may have jeopardized the country's long-term developmental goals and damaged Türkiye's prospects for energy independence. A more volatile economic environment may also impact Türkiye's role as an energy transit hub. As an integral part of existing initiatives such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Iraq's Development Road, Türkiye has historically been key to transporting hydrocarbons between the Middle East and Europe. As Europe seeks transit routes outside of Russia, projects like the EastMed pipeline, which partially relies on Türkiye's acquiescence, could be further jeopardized amidst existing delays. As President Trump continues to decouple from Europe and fan conflict and unpredictability in relations between the U.S. and the EU, Türkiye, as a route of transporting energy resources, is looking riskier, which has a distinct impact on European energy security. The muted Western response to Türkiye's turmoil highlights how the rapid pace of current geopolitical change and uncertainty influences the behavior of nation states. Türkiye's location and strategic importance is prompting diminished criticism of its democratic backsliding. In the U.S, President Trump has made no statement condemning Erdoğan's actions. The EU needs Türkiye for its new joint defense strategies as it holds the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., and to keep migration under control. However, while many states may prioritize maintaining a relationship with Ankara, investors have no such obligations. The events unfolding in Türkiye starkly reflect the broader trends of 2025: geopolitical uncertainty and further democratic backsliding. Türkiye's latest political crackdown exemplifies both. Just as the country was beginning to rebuild economic credibility, this dramatic setback has significant financial consequences that threaten Türkiye's potential for growth and Europe's energy supply. With Erdoğan's most recent crackdown, yet another key European trading partner has joined the race to increase political risk, and this dynamic will surely limit the prospects of strengthening the continent's energy security.
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
Erdoğan's Crackdown In Türkiye Throttles European Energy
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's anti-democratic actions will have a significant economic ... More impact on the country (Photo by Adem ALTAN / AFP) (Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images) Befitting its status as a country bridging Europe and Asia, the Turkish government's massive crackdown on the country's Republican People's Party (CHP) opposition party and arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and leader of the CHP, has immediate implications for the entire region. Recent events are raising alarm bells in Europe that Turkish chaos could hurt an already energy-hungry Europe, which depends on Türkiye's energy transit. Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the country's strongman leader for the past twenty-two years and has not been shy about using power against the political competition. On March 18th, the university diploma of his key rival, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was abruptly revoked on an administrative technicality. This was an attempted political coup de grâs, as candidates for the presidency must have a university degree according to Turkish law. The transparent move immediately triggered accusations that Erdoğan was trying to stifle the opposition. Next, on the morning of March 19th, Imamoğlu's house was surrounded, and he was arrested on allegations of corruption and terrorism links, just days before he was about to be named presidential candidate of the CHP. Presidential elections are slated to be held in 2028, though they may occur earlier. Writing from prison on March 23rd, Imamoğlu declared: 'I have been imprisoned on the basis of vague hearsay from a handful of so-called 'confidential witnesses'. There is no conviction against me. I am a political prisoner." Apparently, many Turks agreed. Protests broke out as soon as Imamoğlu was arrested. Despite a government ban, the demonstrations grew to become the largest Türkiye has seen in over a decade, with crowd estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to half a million and more, and spread to more than 55 of Turkey's 81 provinces. They were met with a forceful crackdown. Over 1,400 people, including journalists, were arrested. Multiple media outlets were fined for covering the demonstrations. Nevertheless, millions turned out to vote for Imamoğlu to be the CHP's candidate for president. The stage is set for a political showdown, the opposition is not backing off, and neither is Erdoğan or his neo-Ottoman, religious conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). To better understand the dissatisfaction and distrust that the Turkish population is displaying, it is worth noting that the inflation rate has slowed to a still intolerable 38.10% a year, making life exceedingly difficult for the majority of people and fueling interest in getting someone with a new outlook into power. The political turmoil swiftly spilled over into Türkiye's economy. The MSCI Türkiye Index fell by 20.9%, signaling a sharp market reaction to the rising instability. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) surged to 324, a nearly 30% increase, signaling escalating risks and higher borrowing costs. The Turkish lira depreciated further, dropping as much as 12% right after Imamoğlu's arrest, despite the Turkish Central Bank spending $12 billion in foreign reserves to save the lira after it hit a record low. The central bank also raised interest rates to 46% overnight, from 42%. ISTANBUL, TURKEY - APRIL 13, 2025: Students take part in a protest against the arrest of Istanbul's ... More mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, responding to a series of actions where President Erdogan has assumed further power over the government. (Photo credit should read Tolga Ildun / GocherImagery/Future Publishing via Getty Images) Despite the Central Bank's efforts to attract foreign direct investment, recent political developments have once again shaken investor confidence. This was best illustrated in a Bloomberg report describing how, during a meeting with a Turkish economist on March 19th where they were expecting good news, Wall Street investors watched in real-time as news alerts on their phones showed Turkish stocks seeing their largest drop since 2013, eroding trust in the country's stability in just 30 minutes. Investors looking at long-term investments like energy care about the rule of law, good governance, transparency, certainty, and stability for their returns. All of which increasingly authoritarian Türkiye lacks. The recent uproar demonstrated once more that there is no guarantee Erdoğan will follow sensible policies, and that instead he is willing to sacrifice political and fiscal stability on the altar of his ambitions to remain in office at all costs. Erdoğan talks a good game about his commitment to investor-friendly economic policies; however, the damage may have already been done and will cost Türkiye tens of billions of dollars. Türkiye is not rich in oil and gas, so it has turned to renewable energy as a key strategy to reduce its dependence on costly energy imports. With energy being a long-term infrastructure investment, those looking to invest in wind, solar, and hydro in Türkiye will likely withhold investment decisions, a costly dynamic as Türkiye has publicly declared it will invest $20 billion in renewable energy and infrastructure by 2030. By creating an environment hostile to foreign investment, Erdoğan may have jeopardized the country's long-term developmental goals and damaged Türkiye's prospects for energy independence. A more volatile economic environment may also impact Türkiye's role as an energy transit hub. As an integral part of existing initiatives such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Iraq's Development Road, Türkiye has historically been key to transporting hydrocarbons between the Middle East and Europe. As Europe seeks transit routes outside of Russia, projects like the EastMed pipeline, which partially relies on Türkiye's acquiescence, could be further jeopardized amidst existing delays. As President Trump continues to decouple from Europe and fan conflict and unpredictability in relations between the U.S. and the EU, Türkiye, as a route of transporting energy resources, is looking riskier, which has a distinct impact on European energy security. The muted Western response to Türkiye's turmoil highlights how the rapid pace of current geopolitical change and uncertainty influences the behavior of nation states. Türkiye's location and strategic importance is prompting diminished criticism of its democratic backsliding. In the U.S, President Trump has made no statement condemning Erdoğan's actions. The EU needs Türkiye for its new joint defense strategies as it holds the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., and to keep migration under control. However, while many states may prioritize maintaining a relationship with Ankara, investors have no such obligations. The events unfolding in Türkiye starkly reflect the broader trends of 2025: geopolitical uncertainty and further democratic backsliding. Türkiye's latest political crackdown exemplifies both. Just as the country was beginning to rebuild economic credibility, this dramatic setback has significant financial consequences that threaten Türkiye's potential for growth and Europe's energy supply. With Erdoğan's most recent crackdown, yet another key European trading partner has joined the race to increase political risk, and this dynamic will surely limit the prospects of strengthening the continent's energy security.
