3 days ago
The playoffs — how the top six shape up
And then there were six. The new-look Super Rugby Pacific playoffs begin tonight. Hayden Meikle explains how it works and looks at the three qualifying finals. HOW IT WORKS
There is a lot to be said for the top four teams playing semifinals, and the winners progressing straight to the final. Remember them glorious days? Sigh.
Rightly or wrongly, an 11-team Super Rugby Pacific competition introduces a new six-team qualifying series this year.
The top six from the regular season — 1 v 6, 2 v 5, 3 v 4 — play each other.
The three winners plus the highest-ranked loser proceed to the semifinals next weekend. CRUSADERS v REDS
Crusaders record: 11 wins, 3 losses, + 100 points differential, second after regular season.
Reds record: 8 wins, 6 losses, +54 points differential, fifth after regular season.
History: The Crusaders have won 13 of their past 14 games against the Reds, and triumphed 43-19 in round four. Remarkably, the Crusaders have not lost a playoff game since 2016 — helped that they missed the playoffs last year, obviously. They have won 20 of their past 21 games against Australian opposition in Christchurch. The only team to spoil that run? The Reds in 2024.
The oil: Everyone outside the flatlands will be backing the Reds, but the sad reality is the Crusaders are good again. Tamaiti Williams, Codie Taylor, Scott Barrett and Ethan Blackadder set the platform, Noah Hotham and Rivez Reihana control the show, and Sevu Reece and Chay Fihaki do the damage out wide. The Reds will need big, booming games from loose forward stars Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight, but the real keys might be first five Tom Lynagh, who has a deadly accurate boot, and winger Lachie Anderson, fresh off four tries against the Drua.
Prediction: Crusaders 35-22. Groan. CHIEFS v BLUES
Chiefs record: 11 wins, 3 losses, +231 points differential, first after regular season.
Blues record: 6 wins, 8 losses, +47 points differential, sixth after regular season.
History: This is a rematch of last year's final, won 41-10 by the Blues. The Chiefs have won nine of their past 11 games against the Blues in Hamilton, but won just 32-31 earlier this season.
The oil: Bit of a mismatch on paper as the Chiefs are clearly the best team in the competition and the Blues hold the ''in the playoffs but do not really deserve to be in the playoffs'' spot. The Chiefs are in the top three in every major statistical category this season and do not really have any weaknesses. Tupou Vaa'i, Luke Jacobson and Simon Parker are in smashing form in the pack, Damian McKenzie remains the most influential non-Ardie player in Super Rugby, and there is an embarrassment of riches out wide. The Blues will match up in areas but you sense they will need enormous performances from Hoskins Sotutu, Beauden Barrett and Rieko Ioane to stay close.
Prediction: Chiefs 42-20. BRUMBIES v HURRICANES
Brumbies record: 9 wins, 5 losses, +87 points differential, third after regular season.
Hurricanes record: 8 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, +106 points differential, fourth after regular season.
History: The Brumbies have won two straight playoff games against the Hurricanes. But the Canes had a 35-29 win when the teams met in Canberra in round 11, and are riding a six-game undefeated streak.
The oil: Potentially the most intriguing playoff game yet quite possibly one that is basically meaningless. Assuming the Crusaders and the Chiefs win, both these teams will be safely in the semifinals, and with no possibility of playing for home advantage. Weird. The Brumbies are consistent and calm and all the sorts of things you like to see in the crunch stages, and Rob Valetini, Noah Lolesio, Len Ikitau and Tom Wright are class acts. But beware the booming Hurricanes. They are red-hot, powered by Tyrel Lomax, Du'Plessis Kirifi and Peter Lakai, and ignited by Cam Roigard and Ruben Love, and they will sense an upset.
Prediction: Hurricanes 32-29 in a thriller.
