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New York Times
11-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
The Danger for India and Pakistan Has Not Gone Away
India and Pakistan have seemingly pulled back from the brink again. But so much was new about the nuclear-armed enemies' chaotic four-day clash, and so many of the underlying accelerants remain volatile, that there's little to suggest that the truce represents any return to old patterns of restraint. A new generation of military technology fueled a dizzying aerial escalation. Waves of airstrikes and antiaircraft volleys with modern weapons set the stage. Soon they were joined by weaponized drones en masse for the first time along the old Line of Control in Kashmir — hundreds of them in the sky, probing each nation's defenses and striking without risk to any pilot. Then the missiles and drones were streaking past the border areas and deep into India's and Pakistan's territories, directly hitting air and defense bases, prompting dire threats and the highest level of military alert. Only then did international diplomacy — a crucial factor in past pullbacks between India and Pakistan — seem to engage in earnest, at what felt like the last minute before catastrophe. In a new global chapter defined by perilous conflicts, distracted leaders and a retreating sense of international responsibility to keep peace, the safety net had never seemed thinner. 'Going back historically, many of the India-Pakistan conflicts have been stopped because of external intervention,' said Srinath Raghavan, a military historian and strategic analyst. Mr. Raghavan observed that neither country has a significant military industrial base, and the need to rely on weapons sales from abroad means outside pressure can have an effect. But the positions of both sides appeared more extreme this time, and India in particular seemed to want to see if it could achieve an outcome different than in previous conflicts. 'I think there is a stronger sort of determination, it seems, on the part of the Indian government to sort of make sure that the Pakistanis do not feel that they can just get away or get even,' he said. 'Which definitely is part of the escalatory thing. Both sides seem to feel that they cannot let this end with the other side feeling that they have somehow got the upper hand.' The political realities in India and Pakistan — each gripped by an entrenched religious nationalism — remain unchanged after the fighting. And that creates perhaps the most powerful push toward the kind of confrontation that could get out of hand again. Pakistan is dominated by a military establishment that has stifled civilian institutions and is run by a hard-line general who is a product of decades of efforts to Islamize the armed forces. And the triumphalism of Hindu nationalism, which is reshaping India's secular democracy as an overtly Hindu state, has driven an uncompromising approach to Pakistan. On Sunday, there was still no indication that Pakistan or India might repair their diplomatic relations, which had been frosty even before the military escalation, or ease visa restrictions on each other's citizens. And India did not seem to be backing away from its declaration that it would no longer comply with a river treaty between the two countries — a critical factor for Pakistan, which said that any effort to block water flows would be seen as an act of war. The spark for the latest fighting was a terror attack on the Indian side of Kashmir that killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denied any role. The crisis ended a six-year lull in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Indian government had taken a two-pronged approach to Pakistan: trying to isolate its neighbor with minimum contact and to bolster security at home, particularly through heavily militarizing the Indian side of Kashmir. Establishing a pattern of escalatory military action in response to terror attacks in 2016 and 2019, India had boxed itself into a position of maximal response. After last month's attack, the political pressure to deliver a powerful military response was immediate. But the choices for India's military were not easy. It publicly fumbled the last direct clash with Pakistan, in 2019, when a transport helicopter went down and when Pakistani forces shot down a Soviet-era Indian fighter plane and captured its pilot. Mr. Modi's effort to modernize his military since then, pouring in billions of dollars, was hampered by supply constraints caused by Russia's war in Ukraine. India was also stressed by a four-year skirmish on its Himalayan border with China where tens of thousands of troops remained on war footing until a few months ago. When it came time to use force against Pakistan this past week, India wanted to put that lost prestige and those past difficulties behind it. It also sought to show a new, more muscular approach on the world stage, able to wield not just its rising economic and diplomatic power, but military might as well. Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who have studied the dynamics between India and Pakistan said that India came out of this latest conflict looking assertive and aggressive, and perhaps has established some new level of deterrence with Pakistan. But the way the fight played out did not suggest improvement at the operational or strategic level, they said. In its opening round of airstrikes, on Wednesday, India struck targets deeper inside the enemy territory than it had in decades, and by all accounts had hit close enough to facilities associated with terror groups that it could claim victory. Each day that followed was filled with language from both India and Pakistan suggesting that they had achieved what they wanted and were ready for restraint. But each night was filled with violence and escalation. More traditional artillery volleys across the border kept intensifying, bringing the heaviest loss of life. And the drone and airstrikes grew increasingly bold, until some of each country's most sensitive military and strategic sites were being targeted. What finally seemed to trigger the intense diplomatic pressure from the United States, with clear help on the ground from the Saudis and other Gulf states, was not just that the targets were getting closer to sensitive sites — but also just what the next step in a rapid escalation ladder for two alarmed nuclear powers could mean. Shortly before a cease-fire was announced late on Saturday, Indian officials were already signaling that any new terror attack against India's interests would be met with similar levels of force. 'We have left India's future history to ask what politico-strategic advantages, if any, were gained,' said Gen. Ved Prakash Malik, a former chief of the Indian Army.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Pakistan says it has struck military targets inside India in series of new attacks
Pakistan's armed forces said they hit back at India, targeting military sites, after India fired missiles at three of its air bases in a frightening escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. India had earlier targeted the three air bases inside Pakistan with missiles, most of which were intercepted, on Saturday, Pakistani military officials said. The strike marks the latest escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals, a move triggered by a mass shooting that India blames Pakistan for. Trump Offers To Help India, Pakistan Amid Growing Conflict: 'I Want To See Them Stop' In a televised address, Pakistani army spokesman, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Sharif, said the country's air force assets were safe. He added that some of the Indian missiles also hit India's eastern Punjab. There was no immediate comment from India. Read On The Fox News App "This is a provocation of the highest order," Sharif said. India Launches Strikes On Terrorist Camps In Pakistan The missiles targeted Nur Khan air base in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, Murid air base in Chakwal city and Rafiqui air base in the Jhang district of eastern Punjab province, Sharif said. Some of the missiles landed in Afghanistan, he said. "I want to give you the shocking news that India fired six ballistic missiles from its city of Adampur," said Sharif. One of the ballistic missiles hit Adampur, the remaining five missiles hit the Indian Punjab area of Amritsar." Earlier this week, Pakistan shot down more than two dozen drones. The fraught relationship between the neighboring nations hit a low following an attack at a popular tourist area in India-controlled Kashmir, leaving 26 people dead. Most of those killed were Hindu tourists. India has blamed Pakistan, which denies any article source: Pakistan says it has struck military targets inside India in series of new attacks
Japan Times
08-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Can India and Pakistan step back from the brink?
For two nations that say they want to avoid escalation, India and Pakistan seem trapped in a dangerously spiraling conflict. India's strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir Wednesday were clearly telegraphed — a fitting answer, it believes, for last month's terror attack in Kashmir. In response, Islamabad claims it has shot down five of New Delhi's aircraft. Civilians are now dead on both sides. Avoiding any further intensification is critical for these nuclear-armed states. Keeping diplomatic channels open is crucial, too. The alternative is a cycle of counterstrikes that risks dangerous missteps. For New Delhi, this calculated military action was a show of strength — a powerful blow against what it calls the "terrorist infrastructure' inside Pakistan. In a statement Wednesday, the Ministry of Defense described a "precise and restrained response' meant to avoid escalation. The airstrikes hit nine locations, officials said, and marked the deepest breach of Pakistani territory since the 1971 war. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has consistently said that the perpetrators of the attack that killed 26 people — mostly tourists — in Pahalgam would be brought to justice. The strikes have been called "Operation Sindoor,' a reference to the red powder used in Hindu ceremonies and sometimes worn by women as a sign of their married status. Officials say it's also a way to honor the women who lost their husbands in the assault. In military operations, messaging is everything. Ahead of a press briefing by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, officials broadcast a video cataloguing attacks that New Delhi attributes to Pakistan-backed terrorist groups — claims Islamabad denies. Misri said intelligence sources showed there was evidence the Kashmir attack was planned from Pakistan and that India's military had targeted "known terror camps' and avoided civilian, economic or military targets. Islamabad says that's not true. The claims and denials are part of a decades-old grievance that has found fresh life. The nations have been locked in a fraught and often volatile rivalry that is almost always simmering. They've fought several wars since their violent partition following independence from Britain in 1947. Kashmir has been at the heart of the hostilities. On many occasions they've been on the brink of major conflict, yet have successfully climbed down. They would be wise to follow a similar course of action this time. The last close call was in 2019, after a suicide bomber killed 40 members of India's security forces. New Delhi retaliated with its first airstrikes on Pakistani soil since 1971. Islamabad shot down a jet in response and captured a pilot, who was subsequently released. Tensions dissipated and in 2021, the two sides signed a ceasefire agreement at the disputed border in Kashmir, known as the Line of Control. This time, events may not follow such a familiar script. There are likely to be domestic and institutional pressures in Pakistan to escalate, notes Harsh Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation. "India has given Pakistan some space to maneuver by saying these strikes are nonescalatory in nature, but whether Islamabad uses that is their call,' he told me. "Escalation logic can easily become the dominant narrative.' Both sides are playing to their domestic audiences. In India, a nationalist frenzy has been whipped up by media loyal to Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, catering to a public hungry for justice. Images of widows have been playing nonstop across television screens, while little attention is paid to dissent within Kashmir. The government insists that militants aimed to disrupt a return to "normalcy' in the region, despite ongoing concerns about its decision to revoke its autonomy in 2019. In Pakistan, public sentiment is growing more hostile. The suspension of a longstanding agreement governing water sharing, the Indus Waters Treaty, has ratcheted up tensions. Millions of farmers depend on those flows and Islamabad has warned that it views India's measures as an act of war. It has also signaled a willingness to talk, if New Delhi stands down. The international community is watching closely. The United Nations and others have urged restraint. India has spoken to a host of countries to lay out its aims, but will also want strategic partners to pressure Islamabad and align with its policy on terrorism. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held an emergency security meeting Wednesday. His office earlier released a statement saying the country "reserves the right to respond, in self-defense, at a time, place and manner of its choosing.' If the two do declare the military hostilities over, there's still one significant pressure point New Delhi can use: the Financial Action Task Force and its gray list. Islamabad was only removed from the list — which helps track money laundering and terrorism financing — in 2022 after spending four years there alongside nations such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique. It will be loathe to be added again. The real work is likely happening behind the scenes, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking to both nations. The UAE has helped to broker peace before and could be called upon again. Diplomatic efforts must match the urgency of the moment. Miscalculation now could open a third front when the world is already managing war in Ukraine and conflict in Israel and Gaza. It can ill afford another. Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China.
The Independent
07-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
‘Hopefully they can stop now': Trump offers help the day after India's airstrikes against Pakistan
President Donald Trump on Wednesday offered to serve as a mediator between India and Pakistan after their respective armed forces exchanged volleys of conventional weapons in an escalation of a long-running conflict that has raised the chance of escalation by the two nuclear-armed states. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a swearing-in ceremony for the new American ambassador to China, David Purdue, that the latest skirmish has been 'so terrible' and expressed confidence in his own ability to settle the dispute based on the fact that he has good personal relations with both nations. 'My position is I get along with both. I know both very well, and I want to see them work it out. I want to see them stop, and hopefully they can stop now,' he said. The president's comments came less than a day after Indian jets conducted airstrikes into Pakistani territory in retaliation for last month's deadly terror attack by militants in Kashmir, the disputed border region controlled by India. Pakistani officials said at least 21 died in the airstrikes, just four fewer than were killed in the Kashmir attack that was carried out by militants armed with rifles. The Indian government blames Islamabad for allegedly supporting insurgent movements in the heavily-militarized border region. Trump expressed hope that the Indian airstrikes would serve to end this latest round of skirmishing between the countries, which fought limited wars in 1947 and 1965. 'They've gotten tit for tat, so hopefully they can stop now ... we get along with both the countries very well, good relationships with both. And I want to see it stop. And if I can do anything to help, I will, I will be there,' he said. The recent hostilities between India and Pakistan have raised the once-unthinkable possibility of two nuclear-armed states exchanging fire with thermonuclear weapons. Neither country is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and India has been a declared nuclear power since 1974 when it detonated its first nuclear weapons test. Pakistan's government had begun developing nuclear weapons two years earlier after losing control of Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan) in a civil war. That effort finally bore fruit in 1998 when Pakistan detonated five underground nuclear tests in response to an Indian nuclear weapons test several weeks earlier.
