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CNN
5 days ago
- Business
- CNN
Friday's jobs report could show how much US employers will bend before they break
Last June, after almost a full year on the job hunt, Jordan Williams landed a role at a high-growth, United Kingdom-based outdoor apparel brand that was looking to build out its US operations. Passenger Clothing was well-positioned for expansion: The company landed orders with REI, Scheels and others, and Williams, an outdoor industry veteran, was excited for the ride. Until April. 'Upon Liberation Day,' Williams said, nodding to the moniker President Donald Trump assigned to his blowout tariff announcement on April 2, 'I was liberated from employment.' Overnight, the US went from being Passenger's biggest potential growth driver to its biggest existential threat. For every $1 million of recycled fabrics, organic clothing and other products that landed in the US from countries such as India and China, Passenger was responsible for an additional $500,000 of duties, the company said in a mid-April statement announcing the pause of its US operations. Williams officially lost his job on April 11. Economists have warned early layoffs like Williams' could be the first signs of labor market fallout from Trump's steep (and shifting) tariffs, which have ramped up uncertainty testing the nimbleness of businesses of all sizes. Friday's jobs report will provide some hints as to how much US employers are able to bend before they break. 'The labor market is good, but it's not exceptional, and we're in the process of putting some real strain on the economy,' Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist, told CNN in an interview. Economists expect that the May jobs report, slated for release Friday morning, could show the labor market is softening. The consensus forecast is for the economy to have added 130,000 jobs, slowing from a stronger-than-expected 177,000 gain in April, and for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, according to FactSet estimates. The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report has shown higher numbers of first-time claims last month as well as people who have remained on unemployment for multiple weeks. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received unemployment insurance for at least a week or more, continue to bump up against a three-and-a-half-year high. 'This is a market where there are stops and starts, and there are pullbacks in hiring,' Nela Richardson, chief economist for payroll giant ADP, said Wednesday 'With establishments, especially small establishments, when there's a lot of uncertainty — it doesn't mean that the demand isn't there but the timing may be off — and firms would rather wait and see than hire aggressively.' The hiring rate, the number of hires as a percentage of total employment, ticked higher in April to 3.5% but remains below pre-pandemic levels, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released earlier this week. And by ADP's count (which doesn't always correlate with the official jobs report) hiring dropped off precipitously in April and May, when the private sector gained 60,000 and 37,000 jobs, respectively. 'The weak numbers we're seeing now does not point to a labor market that's collapsing, but there is hiring hesitancy,' Richardson said Wednesday. 'It's like driving through fog for some of our firms here,' she added. Though the ripple effects from various Trump policies could take longer to show up in the data, the federal workforce reductions have already started appearing. The federal government posted job losses for three consecutive months, dropping 13,000 jobs in February, 4,000 in March and 9,000 in April, BLS data shows. More losses could be spread over many months to come: Not all federal workers were laid off immediately, and other actions are being challenged in court. Through May, announced job cuts are running significantly higher than in recent years; however, the lion's share of the cutbacks have come from the federal government. Department of Government Efficiency-related cost-cutting and its downstream effects have led to more than 294,000 announced job cuts, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data released Thursday. Another 131,257 announced cuts have been attributed to 'market/economic conditions,' while 2,097 have been directly tied to tariffs. 'Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces,' Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement and coaching firm, said in a statement. 'Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices.' DOGE's actions and economic uncertainty have driven job cut announcements significantly higher than last year: Through the first five months of the year, employers have announced 696,309 job cuts, an 80% increase from the comparable year-ago period, according to the Challenger report. Despite the increase in announcements, layoffs appear to be shrinking. In May, employers announced 93,816 job cuts, a decrease of 12% from April. Also, jobless claims (a proxy for layoffs) and the rate of layoffs and discharges remain below pre-pandemic levels, Labor Department data shows. Still, the impacts from tariffs might very well by a slow burn, economist Claudia Saum said. 'We are still early days,' she said.
CNN
5 days ago
- Business
- CNN
Friday's jobs report could show how much US employers will bend before they break
Last June, after almost a full year on the job hunt, Jordan Williams landed a role at a high-growth, United Kingdom-based outdoor apparel brand that was looking to build out its US operations. Passenger Clothing was well-positioned for expansion: The company landed orders with REI, Scheels and others, and Williams, an outdoor industry veteran, was excited for the ride. Until April. 'Upon Liberation Day,' Williams said, nodding to the moniker President Donald Trump assigned to his blowout tariff announcement on April 2, 'I was liberated from employment.' Overnight, the US went from being Passenger's biggest potential growth driver to its biggest existential threat. For every $1 million of recycled fabrics, organic clothing and other products that landed in the US from countries such as India and China, Passenger was responsible for an additional $500,000 of duties, the company said in a mid-April statement announcing the pause of its US operations. Williams officially lost his job on April 11. Economists have warned early layoffs like Williams' could be the first signs of labor market fallout from Trump's steep (and shifting) tariffs, which have ramped up uncertainty testing the nimbleness of businesses of all sizes. Friday's jobs report will provide some hints as to how much US employers are able to bend before they break. 'The labor market is good, but it's not exceptional, and we're in the process of putting some real strain on the economy,' Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist, told CNN in an interview. Economists expect that the May jobs report, slated for release Friday morning, could show the labor market is softening. The consensus forecast is for the economy to have added 130,000 jobs, slowing from a stronger-than-expected 177,000 gain in April, and for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, according to FactSet estimates. The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report has shown higher numbers of first-time claims last month as well as people who have remained on unemployment for multiple weeks. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received unemployment insurance for at least a week or more, continue to bump up against a three-and-a-half-year high. 'This is a market where there are stops and starts, and there are pullbacks in hiring,' Nela Richardson, chief economist for payroll giant ADP, said Wednesday 'With establishments, especially small establishments, when there's a lot of uncertainty — it doesn't mean that the demand isn't there but the timing may be off — and firms would rather wait and see than hire aggressively.' The hiring rate, the number of hires as a percentage of total employment, ticked higher in April to 3.5% but remains below pre-pandemic levels, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released earlier this week. And by ADP's count (which doesn't always correlate with the official jobs report) hiring dropped off precipitously in April and May, when the private sector gained 60,000 and 37,000 jobs, respectively. 'The weak numbers we're seeing now does not point to a labor market that's collapsing, but there is hiring hesitancy,' Richardson said Wednesday. 'It's like driving through fog for some of our firms here,' she added. Though the ripple effects from various Trump policies could take longer to show up in the data, the federal workforce reductions have already started appearing. The federal government posted job losses for three consecutive months, dropping 13,000 jobs in February, 4,000 in March and 9,000 in April, BLS data shows. More losses could be spread over many months to come: Not all federal workers were laid off immediately, and other actions are being challenged in court. Through May, announced job cuts are running significantly higher than in recent years; however, the lion's share of the cutbacks have come from the federal government. Department of Government Efficiency-related cost-cutting and its downstream effects have led to more than 294,000 announced job cuts, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data released Thursday. Another 131,257 announced cuts have been attributed to 'market/economic conditions,' while 2,097 have been directly tied to tariffs. 'Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces,' Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement and coaching firm, said in a statement. 'Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices.' DOGE's actions and economic uncertainty have driven job cut announcements significantly higher than last year: Through the first five months of the year, employers have announced 696,309 job cuts, an 80% increase from the comparable year-ago period, according to the Challenger report. Despite the increase in announcements, layoffs appear to be shrinking. In May, employers announced 93,816 job cuts, a decrease of 12% from April. Also, jobless claims (a proxy for layoffs) and the rate of layoffs and discharges remain below pre-pandemic levels, Labor Department data shows. Still, the impacts from tariffs might very well by a slow burn, economist Claudia Saum said. 'We are still early days,' she said.
CNN
5 days ago
- Business
- CNN
Friday's jobs report could show how much US employers will bend before they break
Last June, after almost a full year on the job hunt, Jordan Williams landed a role at a high-growth, United Kingdom-based outdoor apparel brand that was looking to build out its US operations. Passenger Clothing was well-positioned for expansion: The company landed orders with REI, Scheels and others, and Williams, an outdoor industry veteran, was excited for the ride. Until April. 'Upon Liberation Day,' Williams said, nodding to the moniker President Donald Trump assigned to his blowout tariff announcement on April 2, 'I was liberated from employment.' Overnight, the US went from being Passenger's biggest potential growth driver to its biggest existential threat. For every $1 million of recycled fabrics, organic clothing and other products that landed in the US from countries such as India and China, Passenger was responsible for an additional $500,000 of duties, the company said in a mid-April statement announcing the pause of its US operations. Williams officially lost his job on April 11. Economists have warned early layoffs like Williams' could be the first signs of labor market fallout from Trump's steep (and shifting) tariffs, which have ramped up uncertainty testing the nimbleness of businesses of all sizes. Friday's jobs report will provide some hints as to how much US employers are able to bend before they break. 'The labor market is good, but it's not exceptional, and we're in the process of putting some real strain on the economy,' Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist, told CNN in an interview. Economists expect that the May jobs report, slated for release Friday morning, could show the labor market is softening. The consensus forecast is for the economy to have added 130,000 jobs, slowing from a stronger-than-expected 177,000 gain in April, and for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, according to FactSet estimates. The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report has shown higher numbers of first-time claims last month as well as people who have remained on unemployment for multiple weeks. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received unemployment insurance for at least a week or more, continue to bump up against a three-and-a-half-year high. 'This is a market where there are stops and starts, and there are pullbacks in hiring,' Nela Richardson, chief economist for payroll giant ADP, said Wednesday 'With establishments, especially small establishments, when there's a lot of uncertainty — it doesn't mean that the demand isn't there but the timing may be off — and firms would rather wait and see than hire aggressively.' The hiring rate, the number of hires as a percentage of total employment, ticked higher in April to 3.5% but remains below pre-pandemic levels, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released earlier this week. And by ADP's count (which doesn't always correlate with the official jobs report) hiring dropped off precipitously in April and May, when the private sector gained 60,000 and 37,000 jobs, respectively. 'The weak numbers we're seeing now does not point to a labor market that's collapsing, but there is hiring hesitancy,' Richardson said Wednesday. 'It's like driving through fog for some of our firms here,' she added. Though the ripple effects from various Trump policies could take longer to show up in the data, the federal workforce reductions have already started appearing. The federal government posted job losses for three consecutive months, dropping 13,000 jobs in February, 4,000 in March and 9,000 in April, BLS data shows. More losses could be spread over many months to come: Not all federal workers were laid off immediately, and other actions are being challenged in court. Through May, announced job cuts are running significantly higher than in recent years; however, the lion's share of the cutbacks have come from the federal government. Department of Government Efficiency-related cost-cutting and its downstream effects have led to more than 294,000 announced job cuts, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data released Thursday. Another 131,257 announced cuts have been attributed to 'market/economic conditions,' while 2,097 have been directly tied to tariffs. 'Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces,' Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement and coaching firm, said in a statement. 'Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices.' DOGE's actions and economic uncertainty have driven job cut announcements significantly higher than last year: Through the first five months of the year, employers have announced 696,309 job cuts, an 80% increase from the comparable year-ago period, according to the Challenger report. Despite the increase in announcements, layoffs appear to be shrinking. In May, employers announced 93,816 job cuts, a decrease of 12% from April. Also, jobless claims (a proxy for layoffs) and the rate of layoffs and discharges remain below pre-pandemic levels, Labor Department data shows. Still, the impacts from tariffs might very well by a slow burn, economist Claudia Saum said. 'We are still early days,' she said.
Al Jazeera
09-05-2025
- Business
- Al Jazeera
‘I don't have the cash to pay for these tariffs': US small biz suffers
After working in the outdoor industry for three years at Smith, which makes helmets and goggles, Cassie Abel realised there were not many brands built exclusively with women in mind. In 2016, she founded Wild Rye, a rural Idaho-based outdoor apparel brand for women. Building her business was a labour of passion and included big risks, such as leveraging her house for capital. It was not until 2021 that she became profitable. Now, her business faces yet another existential threat: High tariffs will drive up her costs, and she's unsure how long she can keep her business alive. Abel is expecting $700,000 worth of purchase orders arriving in July, which encompasses the brand's full fall lineup, which she ordered in December from suppliers in China. She says Wild Rye, which imports twice a year, will now be subject to $1.2m in tariffs for its upcoming shipment. 'I don't have the cash to pay for these tariffs. These tariffs are due upon entering the country. I won't have time to sell this product before the tariffs are done. We could be out of business in the next four months,' Abel said. Since taking office, United States President Donald Trump has imposed a 145-percent tariff on China and 10 percent on all other countries. The president has claimed the tariffs incentivise businesses to bring manufacturing back stateside. But that has left hundreds of small businesses like Abel's scrambling to find ways to manage the hefty fee. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of reporters at a White House briefing last week, 'The goal here is to bring back the high-quality industrial jobs to the US. President Trump is interested in the jobs of the future, not the jobs of the past. You know, we don't need to necessarily have a booming textile industry like where I grew up again, but we do want to have precision manufacturing and bring that back.' His comments put additional pressure on employers like Wild Rye. To weather the storm caused by the Trump administration's tariffs, Abel has frozen hiring, paused salary increases for her 11 full-time employees, and stalled new product development. She said she will need to raise prices on her products for the fall, ranging from 10 to 20 percent. On April 29, she and hundreds of members of the outdoor apparel community met leaders in Washington to push for assistance. Abel said Democrats were unsure what they could do amid Republican control of the House of Representatives and Senate, while Republican leadership feared retribution if they went against the president. 'I was hearing it [concern] from both sides of the aisle. There's frustration, it's like it's hard to find a path forward. Everyone understands that small businesses are going to crumble, and everyone feels like there's no playbook for this,' Abel told Al Jazeera. The US Chamber of Commerce has also pushed the White House to carve out exceptions for small businesses like Wild Rye, which the Trump administration quickly dismissed. Abel says she started as a made-in-USA brand, but that was not financially sustainable. 'That almost tanked the business before we launched because the US simply doesn't have the capability or capacity to produce technical apparel,' Abel said. Most textile products like clothes and shoes that Americans buy are not made in the US. The US imports about 97 percent of clothes, mostly from Asian countries including China, which has been hit hard by the 145-percent tariffs, but also from Vietnam and Bangladesh. But it's not just the apparel industry facing this challenge. It's the entire small business community – defined as a business with 500 employees or less – a portion of the economy that employs roughly 61.7 million Americans, representing 45.9 percent of the US workforce and accounts for 43.5 percent of the US gross domestic product (GDP). The broader economy has also already felt shockwaves from the tariffs that will impact small businesses. The US GDP fell in the first quarter, per the US Commerce Department, by 0.3 percent after a 2.4 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to ADP, job growth stumbled to 62,000—a more immediate metric than the US Labor Department's jobs report, which lags by a month and shows 177,000 jobs added. Consumer confidence hit a 13-year low, and consumers are pulling back spending amid fears of further rising costs — which, in turn, means fewer people could buy products ranging from outdoor apparel to single-origin teas and spices. In 2014, Chitra Agrawal founded Brooklyn Delhi, an Indian cuisine-inspired food brand in Brooklyn, New York, with her husband Ben Garthus. Over the last decade, they have created a range of products, including 14 different condiments and simmer sauces, that started as handmade and have since grown into a large-scale business distributing to major retailers like Whole Foods and Kroger, as well as meal kit services like HelloFresh and Blue Apron. Because hers is a specialty brand, sourcing certain ingredients from other parts of the world is not just part of the brand's allure, it is also a necessity. 'We are making these authentic Indian products that require ingredients that are just not grown or available at scale in the US. It kind of puts us in a tough place,' Agrawal told Al Jazeera. Agrawal said 65 percent to 70 percent of the ingredients she uses come from outside of the US, primarily from India, and a handful from Mexico and Sri Lanka, as well as glass from China. Like Agrawal, Anjali Bhargava faces a similar challenge. The founder of Anjali's Cup, a brand that makes single-origin spices and teas from around the world, sources ginger from Vietnam, turmeric from Thailand, and tea from India, ingredients that, in her view, make the brand so special. In 2024, the United States was the largest importer of both ginger and several different varieties of tea, including black and green, according to Tridge, a global food sourcing data analytics firm. 'I am going to have to pay the tariffs on those things if it comes down to it, if I want to continue making those products. [Not being able to make these products] is not negotiable for me,' Bhargava said. She says that in order to cut costs, she is trying to find domestic alternatives for aspects of her production, like packaging, a big expense. Pre-tariffs, she imported tins from China. Once her stock runs out, she may have to discontinue four to six of the 11 products she offers because she cannot afford the extra cost for imports. 'Basically, to keep the business moving, I'm being forced to undertake a complete overhaul of my retail packaging [which can be produced stateside], which means redesigning, re-photographing, and that comes with a cost,' Bhargava added. She says she will need to move away from tins, which she imports from China and explore other kinds of packaging options like pouches. The unexpected one-time costs of $10,000 to $20,000 will eat into her already slim margins, Bhargava says. She is the only full-time employee, but hires freelancers and outsources to other businesses for tasks ranging from packaging to delivery. Unlike larger companies, it's much harder for small businesses to absorb the tariffs. 'We've seen that it's hard for small businesses to balance those costs as they have very small margins. They are the ones who are going to get hit hardest,' said Alexis D'Amato, director of government affairs for Small Business Majority, an advocacy group for small businesses. 'They're bracing for impact on how they're going to either eat these costs or pass them on to the consumer, which nobody wants to do,' D'Amato added. Raising prices in response to market pressures does not guarantee they will fall when costs decline. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions forced producers to increase prices. But even after costs eased, grocers kept prices high because consumers continued paying them — and no policy or market force compelled reductions. That burden weighs on Agrawal. 'Once you make that change and say at one point, I want to roll back those price increases, there's no guarantee that on the shelf, the prices will decrease. It's very difficult when you're working with grocery stores to get your prices to be lowered again. We have to really be very careful about this move. We're still contemplating it,' said Brooklyn Delhi's Agrawal. But these looming concerns have led consumers and businesses to import goods before tariffs kick in, to stock up on key items that may help them avoid raising prices, at least for some time. In the first quarter, US imports surged by 41.3 percent, including by entrepreneurs like Sean Mackowski, owner of Tallon Electric, a company that makes guitar pedals in Columbus, Ohio. 'We did stock up a lot. I think everybody did their best to scramble, hoping that that will bridge the gap to this going away. But if we get to the end of that bridge, we'll either need to find a different way or we're going to start running out of stuff,' Mackowski told Al Jazeera.
