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How the odds are stacked against a conservative pope
How the odds are stacked against a conservative pope

Yahoo

time08-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

How the odds are stacked against a conservative pope

When Francis was elected as Pope in 2013, he was, in betting terms, a rank outsider. The Argentine cardinal was up against the likes of Italian Angelo Scola (odds 3/1), Canadian Marc Ouellet (6/1) and Ghanaian Peter Turkson (11/4). Some bookies had the soon-to-be-elected Francis as low as 40th. Ultimately, Francis was the surprise liberal choice among a field of moderate-to-conservative contenders. Now, the inverse is true: a liberal candidate is favoured to win. A conservative resurgence, however, is far from unlikely. Papal candidates, or papabili to borrow the Latin term for likely contenders for the Bishop of Rome, tend to lean conservative. Analysis of the theological and social views of 24 papabili, as determined by the College of Cardinal's Report, shows that two cardinals in contention are openly in favour of same-sex blessings, ordaining female deacons or reassessing the Church's view on birth control. Eight support communion for divorcees and four are in favour of ending priestly celibacy. There is wider support for placing climate change at the centre of the Church's teachings though, with 11 out of 24 in favour. Using the report cards, we can create a papabili's 'liberal-conservative' view on a scale of -10 for the most conservative and 10 for the most liberal. On this metric, four of the 24 papabili emerge as more liberal than Pope Francis. Six receive a score of minus five or lower, indicating strongly expressed conservative views. This includes Cardinal Robert Sarah, the Guinean who has expressed concern over migration to Europe, and German Gerhard Ludwig Müller, who has warned of a schism if the Vatican does not choose an 'orthodox' pope. Despite this, all three of the leading candidates are in the liberal camp, according to the bookies. These include favourite Pietro Parolin, who is viewed by many as a continuity candidate and currently has implied odds of 33 per cent. He has liberalising views on engaging the Church with its members and, whilst against same-sex marriage, has cautiously welcomed the blessings of gay couples. He is closely followed by Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, who has criticised the use of harsh language to describe LGBT Catholics. He has also called for a modern context to the Humanae vitae, the doctrine that outlines the Church's view on contraception. A continuity pope makes sense because Francis selected 108 of the 135 cardinals able to vote. Unsurprisingly, many of these cardinals tend to be more liberal. The College of Cardinals Report shows that, on average, those chosen by Pope Francis have similar stances to him. These include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy (12 per cent chance of winning) and Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg (a slimmer 4 per cent chance). However, early betting odds in papal conclaves can ultimately mean very little – with Pope Francis being just one cautionary tale. An analysis from academics at the University of Nottingham outlining the success of 500 years of papal betting shows that the markets have a 'patchy record'. The favourite at the start certainly may not be at the end. In 2005, Paddy Power took £200,000 on the election – 'the biggest non-sports betting market of all time' – but it was not until after three ballots that Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI) became the favourite. For Catholics wanting a return to a strict interpretation of Church doctrine, this could be the chance. One move Pope Francis made was making the cardinal electors look more like the flock. A hundred years ago, two-thirds of electors were Italian. Today, this has fallen to 12.6 per cent. For the first time, fewer than 40 per cent come from Europe at all. Instead, there has been an increase in the number from Asia, Africa and South America. About 45 per cent of electors are from the 'global south', a massive change from the 2005 conclave, when just 30 per cent were from there. Democratically, these changes make sense. Today, fewer than a quarter of the world's one billion plus Catholics come from Europe. About 70 per cent come from the world's poorest regions. This change in composition could influence the conclave's views on the way it discusses issues such as climate change, poverty and migration. Pope Francis's compassionate stance on society was undoubtedly the product of working in the poorest districts of Buenos Aires. However, the global makeup of the Catholic Church highlights the key social differences within. In every Western European country, Catholics want the Vatican to recognise legal gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research poll. This falls to 43 per cent in Brazil, the world's largest Catholic country. No similar polling exists for Asia or Africa, but some African cardinals have been particularly critical of Pope Francis's stance on equal marriage. However, across Latin America – where 40 per cent of Catholics live – there has been a liberalising shift over the past decade on issues such as female priests, birth control and celibacy, according to Pew Research. Pope Francis epitomised this cautious progression. He preached compassion and understanding on these delicate social issues, but stopped short of a complete rewrite of doctrine. Few cardinals eligible to vote support a move beyond what Pope Francis has already done. A conservative or liberal jolt could ultimately disturb the balance needed with a truly global and divided Church. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.

The conclave is more conservative than you think
The conclave is more conservative than you think

Telegraph

time08-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Telegraph

The conclave is more conservative than you think

When Francis was elected as Pope in 2013, he was, in betting terms, a rank outsider. The Argentine cardinal was up against the likes of Italian Angelo Scola (odds 3/1), Canadian Marc Ouellet (6/1) and Ghanaian Peter Turkson (11/4). Some bookies had the soon-to-be-elected Francis as low as 40th. Ultimately, Francis was the surprise liberal choice among a field of moderate-to-conservative contenders. Now, the inverse is true: a liberal candidate is favoured to win. A conservative resurgence, however, is far from unlikely. Papal candidates, or papabili to borrow the Latin term for probable contenders for the Bishop of Rome, tend to lean conservative. Analysis of the theological and social views of 24 papabili, as determined by the College of Cardinal's Report, shows that two cardinals in contention are openly in favour of same-sex blessings, ordaining female deacons or reassessing the Church's view on birth control. Eight support communion for divorcees and four are in favour of ending priestly celibacy. There is wider support for placing climate change at the centre of the Church's teachings though, with 11 out of 24 in favour. Using the report cards, we can create a papabili's 'liberal-conservative' view on a scale of -10 for the most conservative and 10 for the most liberal. On this metric, four of the 24 papabili emerge as more liberal than Pope Francis. Six receive a score of minus five or lower, indicating strongly expressed conservative views. This includes Cardinal Robert Sarah, the Guinean who has expressed concern over migration to Europe, and German Gerhard Ludwig Müller, who has warned of a schism if the Vatican does not choose an 'orthodox' pope. Despite this, all three of the leading candidates are in the liberal camp, according to the bookies. These include favourite Pietro Parolin, who is viewed by many as a continuity candidate and currently has implied odds of 33 per cent. He has liberalising views on engaging the Church with its members and, whilst against same-sex marriage, has cautiously welcomed the blessings of gay couples. He is closely followed by Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, who has criticised the use of harsh language to describe LGBT Catholics. He has also called for a modern context to the Humanae vitae, the doctrine that outlines the Church's view on contraception. A continuity pope makes sense because Francis selected 108 of the 135 cardinals able to vote. Unsurprisingly, many of these cardinals tend to be more liberal. The College of Cardinals Report shows that, on average, those chosen by Pope Francis have similar stances to him. These include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy (12 per cent chance of winning) and Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg (a slimmer 4 per cent chance). However, early betting odds in papal conclaves can ultimately mean very little – with Pope Francis being just one cautionary tale. An analysis from academics at the University of Nottingham outlining the success of 500 years of papal betting shows that the markets have a 'patchy record'. The favourite at the start certainly may not be at the end. In 2005, Paddy Power took £200,000 on the election – 'the biggest non-sports betting market of all time' – but it was not until after three ballots that Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI) became the favourite. For Catholics wanting a return to a strict interpretation of Church doctrine, this could be the chance. One move Pope Francis made was making the cardinal electors look more like the flock. A hundred years ago, two-thirds of electors were Italian. Today, this has fallen to 12.6 per cent. For the first time, fewer than 40 per cent come from Europe at all. Instead, there has been an increase in the number from Asia, Africa and South America. About 45 per cent of electors are from the 'global south', a massive change from the 2005 conclave, when just 30 per cent were from there. Democratically, these changes make sense. Today, fewer than a quarter of the world's one billion plus Catholics come from Europe. About 70 per cent come from the world's poorest regions. This change in composition could influence the conclave's views on the way it discusses issues such as climate change, poverty and migration. Pope Francis's compassionate stance on society was undoubtedly the product of working in the poorest districts of Buenos Aires. However, the global makeup of the Catholic Church highlights the key social differences within. In every Western European country, Catholics want the Vatican to recognise legal gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research poll. This falls to 43 per cent in Brazil, the world's largest Catholic country. No similar polling exists for Asia or Africa, but some African cardinals have been particularly critical of Pope Francis's stance on equal marriage. However, across Latin America – where 40 per cent of Catholics live – there has been a liberalising shift over the past decade on issues such as female priests, birth control and celibacy, according to Pew Research. Pope Francis epitomised this cautious progression. He preached compassion and understanding on these delicate social issues, but stopped short of a complete rewrite of doctrine. Few cardinals eligible to vote support a move beyond what Pope Francis has already done. A conservative or liberal jolt could ultimately disturb the balance needed with a truly global and divided Church.

The next Pope to be decided by conclave of cardinals from Wednesday
The next Pope to be decided by conclave of cardinals from Wednesday

CNA

time06-05-2025

  • Politics
  • CNA

The next Pope to be decided by conclave of cardinals from Wednesday

VATICAN CITY: With no official campaigning or list of candidates and the election process shrouded in secrecy, speculation about who will succeed Pope Francis remains just that - speculation. Following the death of Pope Francis in April, 133 cardinal electors will gather on Wednesday (May 7) in the Sistine Chapel for an election that could last hours, days or even months. Here are 15 cardinals among the potential favourites to succeed Pope Francis - so-called "papabili" - divided by region. EUROPE: Pietro Parolin (Italy), 70, Francis's number two Parolin was secretary of state - the Vatican's effective number two - for almost Francis's entire pontificate, and its most visible exponent on the world stage. Known for his calm and subtle sense of humour, the polyglot also has a fine grasp of the intricacies of the Roman Curia, the Holy See's central government, and was part of a group of cardinal advisers to Francis. He is currently considered the frontrunner to become the next pope. He played a key role in a landmark - and controversial - 2018 Vatican agreement with China on naming bishops. Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy), 60, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Pizzaballa is the top Catholic in the Middle East with an archdiocese including Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan and Cyprus. He was made a cardinal in September 2023, shortly before the war broke out between Israel and Hamas. The Franciscan has appealed for peace from both sides, and at Christmas in 2024, led mass in both Gaza and Jerusalem. Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy), 69, Archbishop of Bologna A member of the Roman community of Sant'Egidio, Zuppi has for more than three decades acted as a discreet diplomat for the Vatican, including serving as Pope Francis's special peace envoy for Ukraine. Known for riding his bicycle around Bologna, Zuppi is a popular figure for his decades of work on behalf of the needy. He also advocates for welcoming migrants and gay Catholics into the Church. He has been president of the Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI) since 2022. Claudio Gugerotti (Italy), 69, diplomat and linguist An academic and multi-lingual diplomat from the Italian city of Verona, Gugerotti is an expert on the Eastern Churches. He has served as nuncio -- or ambassador of the Holy See -- in several countries, including from 2002 in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, later in Belarus, and then from 2015 to 2020 in Ukraine. The author of several books, Gugerotti largely avoids commenting on controversial issues. He was named Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches in 2022 and was made a cardinal in 2023. Jean-Marc Aveline (France), 66, Archbishop of Marseille Born in Algeria, Aveline has spent most of his life in the French port city of Marseille. Like his close friend Pope Francis, he has been a voice for welcoming migrants and promoting interreligious dialogue. Appreciated for his discretion, intellectual abilities and people skills, Aveline has carved out a reputation as a cardinal to watch since his elevation in 2022. Anders Arborelius (Sweden), 75, Bishop of Stockholm Appointed in 2017 as Sweden's first cardinal, Arborelius is a convert to Catholicism in the overwhelmingly Protestant Scandinavian country, home to one of the world's most secularised societies. He is the first Swedish Catholic bishop since the Protestant Reformation and a staunch defender of Church doctrine, notably opposed to allowing women to be deacons or blessing same-sex couples. Like Pope Francis, Arborelius advocates welcoming migrants to Europe, including Christians, Catholics and potential converts. Mario Grech (Malta), 68, Bishop emeritus of Gozo Born into a small village on the tiny Mediterranean archipelago of Malta, Grech is a peace broker and potential compromise candidate for the papacy. He was secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a body that gathers information from local churches on crucial issues for the Church, such as the place of women or remarried divorcees, and passes it on to the pope. He had to perform a delicate balancing act, following Pope Francis's lead on creating an open, attentive Church while acknowledging the concerns of conservatives. Peter Erdo (Hungary), 72, Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest An intellectual and respected expert in canon law, Erdo speaks seven languages, has published more than 25 books and is recognised for his openness to other religions. He leads the archdiocese of Esztergom and Budapest, the primatial seat of the Roman Catholic Church in Hungary. But he has faced criticism for his ties with the government of nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose harsh views on migration clashed with those of the late Argentine pope. Known for his enthusiasm for evangelism, Erdo -- who grew up under Communism -- is a conservative on such issues as gay marriage and divorcees who remarry. Jean-Claude Hollerich, 66, Archbishop of Luxembourg A Jesuit like Pope Francis, Hollerich spent more than 20 years in Japan, and is a specialist in European-Asian cultural relations as well as German literature. Firm on dogma, the theologian is still open to the need for the Church to adapt to societal changes, much like the Argentine pope he was close to and for whom he served as an adviser on the Council of Cardinals. Hollerich has advocated for the environment and has pushed for laypeople, especially young people, to have more involvement in the Church. ASIA Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), 67, Metropolitan Archbishop emeritus of Manila Tagle, Asia's frontrunner for the papacy, is a charismatic moderate who has not been afraid to criticise the Church for its shortcomings, including over the sexual abuse of minors. Fluent in English and active on social media, he is an eloquent speaker with self-deprecating humour. Some know him as "Asian Francis," and like Pope Francis, he is an advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalised people. Nicknamed "Chito", he was made a cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012 and had already been considered a candidate for pope in the 2013 conclave in which Francis was elected. Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar), 76, Archbishop of Yangon Myanmar-born Bo became the Buddhist-majority country's first and only cardinal in 2015, appointed by Pope Francis. Bo has called for dialogue and reconciliation in conflict-ridden Myanmar, and after the military coup of 2021, appealed to opposition protesters to remain non-violent. He has defended the mainly Muslim Rohingya, calling them victims of "ethnic cleansing", and spoken out against human trafficking, uprooting the lives of many young Burmese. He was head of the Federation of Asian Bishops' Conferences (FABC) between 2019 and 2024. AFRICA Peter Turkson (Ghana), 76, Archbishop emeritus of Cape Coast One of the Church's most influential cardinals from Africa, Turkson has for years been mentioned as a possible first black pope. Made a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, the multi-lingual Turkson has been a papal envoy and mediator, including in South Sudan. He also served between 2016 and 2021 as head of a top Vatican department, the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, which deals with human rights and migration among other issues. Born into a humble family of 10 children, Turkson has criticised anti-gay legislation in Uganda, but defends Catholic sexual morality and has denied that homosexuality is a human rights issue. Robert Sarah (Guinea), 79, former prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments Had Pope Francis lived a few more months, conservative prelate Robert Sarah -- who turns 80 on June 16 -- would have been too old to join the conclave or to succeed him. As it is, though, he has found himself championed by conservative Catholics in the French-speaking world as a candidate to turn the clock back on progressive reforms. An ardent opponent of what he in 2015 called "Western ideologies on homosexuality and abortion and Islamic fanaticism", he denounced a 2024 text that paved the way for the blessing of same-sex couples. Experts believe his views make him too conservative to win a two-thirds majority at the conclave, but even a possible candidacy has boosted his profile. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo), 65, Archbishop of Kinshasa Ambongo was the only cardinal from Africa on Pope Francis's advisory council of cardinals and is the leader of the association of African bishops, SECAM. Born in 1960, the year of DRC's independence from Belgium, he has been a strong voice for peace in his conflict-ridden country, and is outspoken in his conservative views. He notably signed a letter in January 2024 voicing opposition to the Vatican's declaration allowing priests to carry out non-liturgical blessings of same-sex unions. In a 2023 interview, Ambongo - who some believe could be his continent's first pope - proclaimed that "Africa is the future of the Church, it's obvious". AMERICAS Robert Francis Prevost (United States), 69, Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo A native of Chicago, Prevost was in 2023 appointed prefect of the powerful Dicastery for Bishops, which is charged with advising the pope on appointments of new bishops. He spent years as a missionary in Peru and is the Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo in that South American country. Made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he is also the president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. Timothy Dolan (United States), 75, Archbishop of New York A jovial, ruddy-faced extrovert with Irish-American roots, Dolan is a theological conservative, fiercely opposed to abortion. As the former archbishop of Milwaukee, he oversaw the fallout from a major sexual abuse scandal in the diocese.

There's now fantasy football for the Conclave – here's how to play
There's now fantasy football for the Conclave – here's how to play

The Independent

time06-05-2025

  • Entertainment
  • The Independent

There's now fantasy football for the Conclave – here's how to play

While betting on the next papal election is discouraged in the Vatican 's home country, thousands of Italians have found a different way to engage with the upcoming conclave: Fantapapa. The online game, inspired by fantasy sports leagues is blending the worlds of church and football. International gambling companies are offering odds on potential successors to Pope Francis, with cardinals convening on May 7. However, licensed Italian gambling platforms are abstaining from taking bets on the "papabili," as the papal contenders are known. Fantapapa provides an alternative for those seeking a pre-conclave gaming experience. Similar to Fantasy Football, players create a team of 11 papal candidates and win points if a team member is mentioned prominently in media within Italy and beyond. Extra points are allocated if one of your picks is elected, with bonuses for correct guesses on other elements such as the name taken by the new pontiff. "As of now (Cardinal Matteo) Zuppi is the preferred candidate and, notably, most of the followers on our Instagram profile are women," Pietro Pace, one of the creators, told Reuters. Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna and the head of the Italian bishops' conference, is a well-known figure in the country. Pace, an AI architect at Microsoft, and Mauro Vanetti, a video game developer, started working on the platform in February when Francis went into hospital. The game, which is free to play and carries no adverts, went online shortly after he died on April 21, and the number of users approached 60,000 last week. "There are no prizes, it's just for fun and for the eternal glory," Pace said. Betting on the conclave is not illegal in Italy, but it is discouraged. "In Italy there is no law expressly prohibiting betting on the election of the pope," explained Nicola Tani, head of specialist media outlet Agipronews. "However, the Customs Agency, which authorises the subject of bets in advance, has informally asked gaming licensees to avoid offering odds on the election of the pope, as is the case for Italian political elections," Tani added. For gambling companies elsewhere, bets on the pope fall into the novelty category of one-off events that cannot be judged by conventional statistics or sporting form. Sums wagered are relatively small. On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, the "Who will be the next Pope?" market has seen a modest $10 million in total volume. By comparison, a possible Fed decision on interest rates in May has seen almost $30 million in bets. Who are the favourites for the next Pope and what are the odds? "There's already plenty of speculation on the next Pope, and currently we make the Vatican Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin, our favourite at 9/4," said Lee Phelps, spokesperson for British-based gambling group William Hill. He added that "Luis Antonio Tagle is second in our market at 3/1 and would become the first Asian Pope in history, while Matteo Zuppi and Peter Turkson are both priced at 6/1.' Tagle is from the Philippines. Turkson is from Ghana and would be the first Black pope in modern history.

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