3 days ago
Home run park factors to watch for fantasy baseball ahead of 2025 MLB trade deadline
With the trade deadline the big story in baseball for the next six weeks, let's look at the best and worst destinations for long balls depending on the handedness of the batter.
There's a theory that the humidor effect has mitigated park factors where we care about it the most — home runs. Since all the balls are neutralized and stored in a way where the dryness of the air has little impact on the weight of their cores, the balls all travel basically the same distance depending on how they're struck — at least that's how the thinking goes.
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But the evidence doesn't support this. Parks still have an extreme impact on home runs when you look at each batter and pitcher in a given park versus in other parks, and adjust for the handedness of the batter. Everything is scaled to 100, so 100 means the park is perfectly average. A number above 100 essentially equates to the percentage of increase in homers for batters from that side. A number lower than 100 is the decline, so a park with an HR factor of 86 means 86% of batted balls that would be a home run in an average park are homers in that park.
The data in the table is from Statcast and includes all parks except Sutter Health Park (home to the A's temporarily) and George M. Steinbrenner Field (home to the Rays temporarily).
The best parks for lefty power from 2023-25 are Great American Ball Park (Reds, 135), Oriole Park at Camden Yards (130), Yankee Stadium (123), Citizens Bank Park (Phillies, 122), Dodger Stadium (119) and Angel Stadium (111).
Of those parks, the only one that's bad for righty power is Oriole Park at Camden Yards (83).
The top righty power-hitting parks are Dodger Stadium (132 — Remember when this was a pitcher's park?), Great American Ball Park (124), Yankee Stadium (121), Petco Park (Padres, 118), Angel Stadium (115), Globe Life Stadium (Rangers, 111), Citi Field (Mets, 111) and Target Field (Twins, 110).
Of those parks, the only one that is legitimately bad for lefty power is Petco Park (90), though Citi Field is slightly below average (95).
Sorry, Jac Caglianone managers, but Kauffman Stadium (Royals) is the pits for lefty power at 69 — it's no picnic for righties either (92). You also do not want lefty power in Arizona (77), San Francisco (78) or anywhere in Chicago — Wrigley Field (86) and Rate Field (89).
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PNC Park (Pirates, 68) is the worst park for righty power, though conversely good for lefty pitching — don't forget that component. Progressive Field (Guardians, 75), Oracle Park (Giants, 81, also terrible for lefty power), the previously mentioned Oriole Park at Camden Yards, LoanDepot Park (Marlins, 84), Busch Stadium (Cardinals, 86), T-Mobile Park (Mariners, 88) and Comerica Park (Tigers, 89) also significantly depress righty power.
According to analysis from multiple sources, including The Athletic's power rankings, the likely buyers at the deadline will be:
Ryan McMahon to the Yankees would boost his value. Coors Field has been an average (ish) home run park over the past three seasons. Jazz Chisholm Jr. would have to move back to second in this case.
Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets would give the CF a power boost, but you'd also need him to revert to his prior home-run form. His expected ISO power is now .160, which is slightly below average, and that's with a barrel rate of 11.4%, which is good. Even his 6.4% per plate appearance is above average. He's mystifying.
The most likely destination for Taylor Ward is probably San Diego, which would actually improve his already good home HR environment — root for that.
Ryan O'Hearn is a trade candidate for the Orioles, but as a lefty, he has twice as many homers at home as on the road and will almost certainly move to much less friendly confines, so consult this data before acting on any O'Hearn trade.
Of course, also consult these park factors in perusing the waiver wire in your 12-team mixed or head-to-head leagues.
There is no three-year data for Tampa's George M. Steinbrenner Field and the Athletics' Sutter Health Park.
Those home run park factors are 125 for righties and 101 for lefties playing in Sacramento, and 136 for righties and 97 for lefties playing in Tampa. Of course, a 40% sample of a single season is far from bettable.
(Top photo of Ryan O'Hearn: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
