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Commentary: Why strongman politics will define US-China relations for now
Commentary: Why strongman politics will define US-China relations for now

CNA

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • CNA

Commentary: Why strongman politics will define US-China relations for now

SINGAPORE: During the Shangri-La Dialogue over the weekend, United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth alluded to America's war-fighting capabilities and characterised its foreign policy under Trump 2.0 as one of 'peace through strength'. This proclamation of strength is consistent with US President Donald Trump's approach to political relations since he took office. Soft power has been eschewed in place of a more muscular and transactional foreign policy. Interests - not ideology or values - would be the lens through which the US sees its relations with others. As Mr Hegseth himself put it: 'We are not here to pressure other countries to embrace or adopt our politics or ideology ... We respect you, your traditions and your militaries. And we want to work with you where our shared interests align.' PORTRAYING A STRONG AMERICA Indeed, we should not be surprised at this show of strength. During the US election campaigning last year, one of the key criticisms Mr Trump and the Republican Party had towards the Democrats was the weakness of then President Joe Biden's team. Mr Trump promised that under his watch, this would all change. Seen this way, the Trump administration's geopolitical manoeuvring stems from the belief that leaders of superpower states cannot afford to look weak - not least in front of their own people. Mr Trump's first show of might was to order a blanket tariff across American trading partners, using this as a tool to get other countries to acquiesce to US demands. His bet was that the US domestic market is too important to ignore and that countries worldwide would rather absorb the tariffs than risk losing access to American consumers. What is happening to US-China competition today is basically this: Both countries are overcompensating for years of engagement in which international cooperation have led to both having to make compromises domestically. From Washington's perspective, countries have gotten a free ride on its provision of public goods while Americans have not benefitted from US-led globalisation. As one foreign diplomat told me in a conversation during the SLD, the days of 'happy globalisation' is over. International relations have repercussions at home and domestic politics now frequently spill into foreign policy. According to the Harvard political scientist Robert Putnam, states are constantly engaged in a domestic-international interplay in their relations with each other whereby leaders must fulfil both international and domestic agendas. Ironically, Mr Trump has taken a leaf from the Chinese government playbook and its chief exponent of strongman politics - President Xi Jinping himself. XI'S PURSUIT OF NATIONAL SECURITY Beijing's priorities are strengthening national security and more importantly, ensuring the stability of the Chinese Communist Party. Since 2012, Mr Xi has gone on the offensive in his pursuit of domestic security while significantly limiting the ability of foreign forces to influence China. From political purges to corruption witch hunts, censorship of information deemed unfavourable to Beijing and wolf warrior diplomacy, Mr Xi hopes to project the face of a strong and uncompromising Chinese state. This is not unexpected given the perception that party discipline was lax under the policies of his predecessor Hu Jintao and those in power were mostly interested in individual pursuit of wealth and power without a broader commitment to the country's well-being. As described by journalist Wong Chun Han in his book Party Of One, Mr Xi is motivated primarily by 'historical grievances and a sense of civilisational destiny' and that his China is 'brash but brittle, intrepid yet insecure ... a would-be superpower in a hurry, eager to take on the world while wary of what may come'. This was mostly acutely seen in China's response to the Trump tariffs. Beijing refused to concede an inch when slapped with a 125 per cent 'reciprocal' tariff, and in turn raised levies on US imports and placed restrictions on American movies. Beijing's bet was American companies and industries could not stomach the short-term pain of financial losses as a result of restricted access to Chinese markets. Both countries were proven right: The temperature was eventually dialled down as both Washington and Beijing rolled back their tariff policies. However, it seems that the Trump administration is now opening a new front in its battle with China in the field of education, as seen by its ban on visas given to Chinese students. It remains to be seen how Beijing will respond. THE ROAD FORWARD While the possibility of a grand deal between Washington and Beijing looks even more remote than ever, this hostile climate may not be lasting. As folks in international relations would say, 'There are no permanent friends, only permanent interests'. Both Mr Trump and Mr Xi are overcompensating for what they view as years of benign neglect by their predecessors on the domestic front. At some point, their policies would hurt their countries' bottom lines. For instance, the Trump administration's visa curbs on institutions of higher educations will compromise American ability to attract talent from all over the world. Meanwhile, China would find it increasingly more challenging to gain trust abroad - even among those who are non-allied with the US. Given that both Mr Trump and Mr Xi cannot afford to look weak in front of their people, strongman politics will likely define the contours of US-China relations in the next few years.

Trump reshapes US foreign policy with wildly successful, business-first Middle East trip
Trump reshapes US foreign policy with wildly successful, business-first Middle East trip

Fox News

time19-05-2025

  • Business
  • Fox News

Trump reshapes US foreign policy with wildly successful, business-first Middle East trip

President Donald J. Trump's Middle East swing was one big, beautiful business trip – and America foreign policy will never be the same. As we saw over and over again, Trump believes international relations work best when they consist of sharp-elbowed business deals. When countries are busy trading, launching construction projects, developing AI, etc., then ideology and military confrontation diminish and tolerance thrives. Of course, Trump's battering of the Houthis with aircraft carriers and bombers greatly facilitated this trip. But make no mistake. This is peace through strength: economic strength. Commerce, not conflict. Way back in 1987, when the U.S. Navy was protecting oil tankers from Iran, Trump spent $95,000 on a full-page ad in the New York Times to tell America to stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves. "We are protective of Saudi Arabia. They should pay for it," Trump said to Larry King on CNN on Sep. 2, 1987. Forty years later, as a second-term president, Trump has swept away tenets that drove American foreign policy for the last hundred years. President Woodrow Wilson making the world safe for democracy as he led America into World War I in 1917? Gone. Foreign aid soft-power culture projects? All over. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama rabble-rousing the Arab spring of 2011 and ditching friends like Hosni Mubarak of Egypt? Not anymore. Russian military bases in Syria and China cutting deals across the Middle East? Not so fast. And you already know the new deal with NATO, an alliance dating from 1949. Going forward, America will remain the lead security partner deterring Russia, but trade deals will be squared up. Adding to the shock and awe, Trump expanded the roster of his national security team for this away game. The secretaries of State, Defense, Treasury and Commerce were joined by businessmen: Tesla CEO Elon Musk, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp and others. Why? Trump is putting businessmen on the field to run plays that boost the U.S. and knock back China. And not a moment too soon. For it is the rise of China and the technology threat of AI that has made Trump's shift urgent. Here are six major scores from his Middle East trip. Trump raked in over $2 trillion in investment pledges from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. This is real money, coming directly to America. Check out the UAE investing $1.4 trillion in the U.S., ranging from natural gas in Texas to data centers to the first new U.S. aluminum smelting facility in 35 years. Long-term, this may be the single most valuable outcome of Trump's trip. You don't want a world where China rules in artificial intelligence, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others end up in Xi Jinping's lap. Trump has made AI leadership a priority for U.S. foreign policy. The UAE is going full AI and will import 500,000 Nvidia chips per year for AI datacenters. Allowing sales to Mideast partners will help U.S. companies gain global market share over China. You can bet Commerce has ways to monitor how chips are used, and restrictions remain on the most advanced chips, but let me be clear. It was us or China. I'm glad Jensen Huang, and not Xi Jinping, got that deal. Playing to an American export strength, the trip yielded a gigantic order from Qatar Airways for 130 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, 30 777-9s, and options for 50 more jets, making this the biggest widebody order ever. Boeing says the order supports 400,000 American jobs throughout the supply chain. Qatar will also purchase some extremely advanced "Desert Viper" F-16 Block 60 fighter jets with upgraded engines, the AN/APG-80 AESA radar and more. Saudi Arabia restocks vital AIM-120 missiles, with a big order that will also help the U.S. speed up production for our own stockpile to deter China. The 30-minute meeting with Syria's President Ahmad Al-Sharaa was a direct application of Trump's new policy. Al-Sharaa is a radical-turned opportunist, and by lifting sanctions, Trump is calculating that a better Syrian economy will be stabilizing. "It's not going to be easy anyway. So, it gives them a good, strong chance," Trump told leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Riyadh. Is Syria an ally or an enemy, wondered NBC News. Wrong question. Syria is neither; lifting sanctions is a chess move. "We do not want to be stuck with China being the only choice for Syria," Dr. Sharvan Ibesh of the Bahar Organization, a humanitarian NGO active in Syria, told Gordon Chang on May 7. Don't forget that U.S. Central Command's A-10s, B-52s and F-15Es knocked the stuffing out of ISIS weapons caches in Syria last winter. "Iran can have a much brighter future," Trump said in Riyadh. You know the ayatollah gasped when Syria got its sanctions lifted. All the business deals were a vivid message to Iran. Dump the weapons program and "nuclear dust" as Trump calls it and reap the economic benefits. Of course, Trump is keeping U.S. aircraft carriers, bombers and more pointed straight at Iran. Every move made by Trump in the Middle East is a tactical loss for China and Russia. Trump's deals are far better than China's underhanded Belt and Road projects. Bonus points for pouring cold water on China's overtures in Syria. And Putin is writhing over the loss of Russian bases in Syria, which his Wagner Group cronies used to support military operations in Africa. Foreign leaders know what they are getting with Trump, and it works for them. "At the end of the day, President Trump is a businessman," UAE Foreign Trade Minister Dr. Al Zeyoudi commented to Gulf News on Friday. He wants to strike a deal. He is looking at added value to the U.S." Golden age foreign policy has just begun.

‘Peace Through Strength' Isn't Going Well in the Mideast
‘Peace Through Strength' Isn't Going Well in the Mideast

Bloomberg

time07-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Bloomberg

‘Peace Through Strength' Isn't Going Well in the Mideast

According to Donald Trump, nothing terrible would have happened in the Middle East (or anywhere) during the past four years if only he had still been the 45th president in that time. And as the 47th president, he kept claiming for a while, he'll bring 'peace through strength' to that region and to Ukraine and other global hotspots. How's that going? Trump seemed off to a good start. In the previous administration's waning days, his special envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, helped to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, a deal that had long eluded Joe Biden, Trump's predecessor and bugbear. That provisional truce was meant to lead to a more permanent solution. But in March Israel started bombing the Gaza Strip again. So: no ceasefire, no solution, no peace.

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