Latest news with #perCapitaRecession
Daily Mail
7 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
BREAKING NEWS Australia slides back into a 'per capita recession' in major blow for Anthony Albanese government
Australia is back in a per capita recession again as immigration soars. Gross domestic product per capita - or the average amount produced by every Australian - shrunk by 0.2 per cent in the March quarter, new national accounts data released on Wednesday showed. Australia had been in a per capita recession since early 2023 until the September quarter of 2024. But it sunk into negative territory again in the December quarter, followed by another bad number in the March quarter - producing a per capita recession. Productivity was flat in the March quarter, plunging by one per cent over the year to March. Weaker hourly output also potentially risks pushing up inflation as costs of faltering output are passed on the consumers. Immigration levels were still high in the year to March with 437,440 people moving to Australia on a net permanent and long-term basis, with this net figure factoring in departures including skilled migrants and international students. Treasurer Jim Chalmers tried blaming overseas factors, as Donald Trump's tariffs hamper global growth. 'Today's national accounts show that our economy continues to grow in the face of substantial economic headwinds at home and abroad,' he said. 'While overall growth in the Australian economy remains subdued, the private sector recovery we have planned and prepared for is gradually taking hold. 'With all the uncertainty in the world, any growth is a decent outcome.
News.com.au
7 days ago
- Business
- News.com.au
Australia could be in a per capita recession if GDP slumps significantly, economists warn
Top economists fear Australia could return to a per capita recession when the March quarterly figures are released on Wednesday. The nation was in a per capita recession – where population growth alone kept Australia out of an official recession – for seven straight quarters before economic activity picked up again in December. Growth is tipped to sink again in the March quarter, ahead of the ABS releasing the official data at 11.30am. Oxford Economics Australia lead economist Ben Udy told NewsWire previous partials released, including retail spending and current account balance, painted a worrying picture ahead of the full picture being revealed. 'It could push us back into a per capita recession, but it is not something I would worry about too heavily,' he said. 'The economy is just stalling and will pick up in the months ahead.' Mr Udy is currently forecasting quarterly growth of around 0.1 to 0.2 per cent when the numbers are released. Independent economist Saul Eslake agreed, telling NewsWire he no longer makes his own assessment of these figures, but based on current market forecasts, Australia could slide back into the negatives. 'The market has been forecasting [a quarterly forecast of] 0.4 per cent. 'You had a minus 0.1 from net exports but had a plus 0.1 from net inventories, so that is a wash. 'We know business investment was soft in the March quarter, it could be a tad less than 0.4'. 'If it is, that might show up as another quarter of negative per capita growth because we had seven in a row and then had an eighth that was positive.' Mr Udy also pointed to other key data from the ABS, including government consumption, retail sales and trade, all showing weak partial data prints. But he said these were driven by a number of one-off factors, including higher interest rates, low levels of consumer confidence and ex-tropical cyclone Alfred in Queensland disrupting economic activity. 'Importantly a number of these factors have been in play for a while but have been offset by strong growth in the public sector which waned in Q1,' he said. The economist said if Wednesday's figures show a per capita recession, the economy would likely snap out of it quickly, albeit starting from a low point. 'If GDP per capita was to decline in the first quarter, we would expect it to pick up pretty quickly in the months ahead,' he said.
