14-05-2025
Philippines midterm results to shape futures of Duterte and Marcos clans
On paper, some 18,000 national and local seats were up for grabs at the Philippines midterm election.
But for two families, there was much more at stake.
The Marcos and Duterte clans were vying for ongoing power and political control over their respective destinies.
The families won a landslide victory as allies in 2022, but the relationship has spectacularly soured.
As the final votes are tallied, here's what we know about the results that could shape the future of politics in the Philippines.
The fractured relationship between the Marcos and Duterte clans started shortly after the election in 2022.
In the past year however, it's fallen through completely.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's allies helped impeach Vice-President Sara Duterte for plotting an assassination against him and allegedly misusing millions of dollars of public funds.
The vice-president then accused the Marcos administration of helping to deport her father, Rodrigo Duterte, to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, where he faces crimes against humanity charges linked to his war on drugs while president.
Of the 12 Senate seats up for grabs in Monday's midterm election, political analyst Richard Heydarian said that up to five may go to Duterte-aligned candidates.
That's significant because nine votes in the 24-seat Senate would successfully block a conviction against Sara Duterte.
A conviction would bar her from running for office at the next presidential election in 2028.
He said he expects she will get the required backing to block a conviction, if a trial even goes ahead.
"She may even have more [Senate support] because they [Duterte-aligned candidates] have done so well," Mr Heydarian told the ABC's The World program from Manila.
"Senators who have ambitions down the road in 2028 … seeing the 'House of Marcos' potentially sinking, they are already soft-peddling, so we may not even see a trial."
He said any trial and ultimate outcome would come down to the handful of "independent-minded and progressive senators … to do the heavy lifting".
"Otherwise just like Donald Trump last year in the US, we're going to see a comeback story for another controversial populist family in the case of the Philippines.
"If the Dutertes' come back, it's retribution time.
"Marcos's best chance is to get a coalition together to impeach Sara Duterte, and if he fails to do that, he going to be quite in trouble [at the 2028 election]."
Despite being nearly 11,500 kilometres away in The Hague, former president Rodrigo Duterte was elected mayor of Davao City — a position he held for two decades before rising to the country's highest office.
He's unlikely to step foot in Davao City, as he awaits a possible trial.
However for one of the most powerful political families in the Philippines, it's a problem solved conveniently.
His son, Sebastian, the current mayor of the city, was elected as vice-mayor and will serve in his father's absence.
The vice-mayor vacancy will likely be filled by a councillor, named Rodrigo Duterte II.
Mr Heydarian said the government was also out-performed in other areas of the country too.
"It's not just Davao City — Manila City … Baguio City … Cebu City — most of these have been won by the opposition or Duterte-friendly elements," he said.
He said the liberal progressive opposition targeted the government on issues of governance, accountability, the budget and alleged concerns over corruption.
On the other side, the Duterte family rallied after Rodrigo Duterte was sent to The Hague, with a call to "protect" Sara Duterte, the heir-apparent, from being impeached.
"Those two elements came together and that's why the administration was essentially squeezed in the middle," Mr Heydarian said.
He said many officials that were elected are government aligned, which gave Mr Marcos Jr some support to "go for broke" to keep the Dutertes in check ahead of the 2028 presidential poll.
