Latest news with #politicalpolarization
CBC
14 hours ago
- Business
- CBC
Why Alberta politics may be getting more polarized — and why that matters
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research to be conducted immediately following the federal election and leading into the second anniversary of the United Conservative Party's provincial election win in May 2023. As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time. This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow. If Albertans feel a divergence of political attitudes — a shift from the centre, toward more ideological extremes — in the province, they aren't wrong, according to a recent poll commissioned by CBC Calgary. "I think we are so polarized," lamented Calgary's Jillian Reimer as she and her two boys sipped drinks outside a coffee shop recently. "I would like to have more conversations. I think there's very little that's actually black and white and so much more that's nuanced," she told a CBC News journalist asking Calgary residents about their impressions of Premier Danielle Smith. Reimer applauds Smith's defense of the energy industry, but not her actions on health care. The Calgary woman laughed when told she is part of a shrinking group of people who rate Smith somewhere in the middle. From the mainstreaming of "F--k Trudeau" bumper stickers and flags to the heated tone of social media debate, our political discourse can often feel more barbed and split. While a 2023 political science study found "only mixed evidence that Canadians are diverging ideologically and becoming more polarized," data from CBC News' recent poll suggests an increase in political polarization among Albertans, pointing toward possibly more contentious times ahead for the prairie province. Why we should care about polarization Polarization isn't necessarily a bad thing, according to a data scientist who analyzed the poll results for CBC News. "It's important to identify where the fault lines in society are," said John Santos. He believes that, if we know where the cracks are in our politics, we can try to meaningfully grapple with divergent views and democratically sort out our differences. "We need to deal with those in a way where people's concerns are heard and they feel like they have a voice and a say in the democratic process," Santos told CBC News. Experts say addressing these political fractures can blunt the entrenchment that polarization can trigger. Political scientists differentiate between ideological polarization — the divergence over policy on issues from the health-care system to taxes — and so-called affective polarization, the emotional dislike or distrust that people feel for the other side. "We worry about the effect of polarization," said University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young, "because it's hard to have a functioning democracy when you see your opponents not as … coming from a different perspective or being misguided, but as being evil." Albertans' flight to the extremes of ideology The poll does not measure how Albertans feel about their political opponents, but the data does suggest an increase in political polarization on values and worldviews. Over the last seven years, CBC News has polled voters about their ideology, asking them to place themselves on the left-right spectrum, with zero being extremely left-wing or progressive and 10 being intensely right-wing or conservative. Consistent with previous polling, the latest representative survey found that Albertans, for the most part, see themselves as political centrists with a slight right skew: on average, they rated themselves at 5.8 out of 10 on this scale. But while the average is only up slightly, fewer individuals in the recent survey identified their worldview as centrist, when compared to previous surveys in recent years. Most of the intensification happened on the right side of the political spectrum, with an expanding number of Albertans rating themselves an eight, nine or 10. The left side of the spectrum, by contrast, appears relatively stable. In addition to ideology, Albertans appear to be polarizing on political values. Polarization on value questions Since 2018, the number of Albertans who think we'd have fewer problems if there was more emphasis on traditional family values has remained steady, with almost two-thirds of people agreeing with that sentiment. Yet, the number of Albertans who strongly agree with the importance of family values has notably grown, from 35 to 40 per cent, over the last seven years. Additionally, the number of Albertans who strongly agree that social programs make people less willing to look after themselves has grown to 21 per cent in the recent poll, up from 15 per cent when CBC News first asked the same question five years ago. "There is a clear fault line in Alberta today, and I think this mirrors a lot of what we're seeing across the advanced industrial West," said Santos. "What gets difficult," he added, "is when people are unwilling to compromise, when disagreeing leads to being disagreeable." There is also evidence of increasing polarization over Alberta's place in Canada — and Albertans' attachment to the country and province. The lastest poll also found growing strength of support among Albertans who think the oil-rich province would be better off if it separated from Canada. In March 2020, only 11 per cent "strongly" agreed. But in the poll this spring, that sentiment grew to 17 per cent. "I would say this is probably the most polarized that I've seen since I've been studying and tracking public opinion in Alberta," said Santos. There's also evidence of polarization when it comes to Smith's leadership, as premier. Talking with about a dozen voters in Calgary's southeast community of McKenzie Towne about Smith, it was easy to find divided opinions. Most people either loved her or were quite disappointed, aligning with the CBC News polling results that suggest roughly equal numbers of Albertans are extremely impressed with her, or not impressed at all. A small group — only 16 per cent of Albertans — had a middle-of-the-road impression of Smith. And this growing division may be a byproduct of Alberta's increasingly competitive political landscape, according to Janet Brown, who conducted the poll for CBC News. Why are we seeing increasing polarization? For decades, Progressive Conservative governments remained a constant in Alberta politics. The party's unbroken rule — 12 consecutive election wins — ran from 1971 to 2015. Brown believes the election of the New Democrats a decade ago dialled up the polarization she found in her recent random survey of 1,200 Albertans. "For a long time, Alberta was essentially a one-party state," said Brown. The surprise win of the NDP 10 years ago thrust Alberta into a competitive, two-party system. "It just makes politics a lot more divisive. It makes public dialogue more contentious," said Brown. The NDP government was a "shock to the political system," according to Young, who has studied Alberta politics for decades. "It really did send everyone to their corners, politically," she added. The NDP win in 2015 also appears to have amped up the emotions — or affective polarization — in Alberta politics, according to Young. "We see people on both sides entrenching themselves more and more," she said. This widening divide may repel middle-of-the-road Alberta voters such as Reimer, who prides herself on being a centrist. " Hopefully, we can grow that middle group," she said. "I think that would be better for our society, as a whole, if we could have more people in the middle, not just full black and white on one side or the other." The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger. The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.
Times
18 hours ago
- Business
- Times
Poland votes to lock its leaders in a constitutional cage match
As Poland awoke to the news that Karol Nawrocki had taken the presidency, the mood of dismay and anguish among liberals was summed up by Agnieszka Holland, the prominent film director: 'The worst thing is that unaware, simple people with [only] primary education decided for us.' Holland would, she wrote on X, support stripping the franchise from voters without higher education. It is precisely this sort of sentiment shared by many metropolitan liberals that has helped to propel Nawrocki, 42, a right-wing, politically untested historian with a chequered past, into the office of Poland's head of state. After trailing for months in the polls, Nawrocki ultimately inched in front of Rafal Trzaskowski, the centrist mayor of Warsaw, beating him with 50.9 per cent of the vote to 49.1. Now Donald Tusk, the centre-right prime minister, will have to contend with an opponent in the presidential palace who is determined to foil his agenda and bring down his government. The result came as such a heavy blow to Tusk that he declared a confidence vote in parliament to try to hold his fractured coalition together, amid rampant speculation that he could be backed into calling an early election. With turnout approaching 72 per cent, a record for any presidential election since Poland wrested back its democracy in 1989, the vote was a victory fuelled by extreme polarisation and a sense among millions of Poles outside the big cities that they would no longer tolerate an elite perceived as self-serving and patronising. The speaker of the lower chamber of the Polish parliament and Tusk's junior coalition partner, Szymon Holownia, added to the growing sense of upheaval by suggesting on X that his party might abstain in the potential confidence vote. Surveys by OGB, the polling firm, found dismally low approval ratings across the board for Tusk and his ill-matched coalition government. The prevailing emotions felt by the electorate towards the Tusk administration were indifference and apathy at 23 per cent, followed by disappointment and resentment at 21 per cent. Satisfaction with the governing coalition came in third place, at 18 per cent. Nearly 50 per cent of Poles judged the government as 'bad' or 'very bad', a level of dissatisfaction not wildly dissimilar to Olaf Scholz's ratings as German chancellor before he collapsed his own government last year. People were, in effect, voting against Tusk, who is judged to have failed to deliver on the promises he made when he returned to power at the end of 2023. They have now locked him in a constitutional cage with a president who has vowed to use all of his powers to obstruct Tusk's agenda. The education divide In some ways the writing was on the wall in the first round of the election a fortnight ago, two hard-right candidates swept up more than 20 per cent of the vote. Lukasz Pawlowski, the political scientist behind OGB, said: 'Trzaskowski's campaign team had two weeks to draw the appropriate conclusions, yet they reached exactly the opposite ones: we saw more Donald Tusk. The increased presence of Tusk made little sense from a polling perspective.' Alongside the long-familiar divide between rural and big-city Poland, another gap has opened between the educated classes and those without university degrees. Trzaskowski was backed by 62.2 per cent of people with higher education, while 73.4 per cent of voters with only primary education voted for Nawrocki, according to an Ipsos exit poll commissioned by the broadcasters TVP, TVN24 and Polsat. The polyglot mayor of Warsaw was also derided by Nawrocki's backers as 'Monsieur Bonjour' on account of his cosmopolitan style and fluency in French. Pawlowski said: 'The real division is between the top and the bottom of society, and Rafal Trzaskowski was the candidate of the establishment.' Even by Poland's near-American standards of mutual suspicion and fragmentation in politics and the media, it was a messy campaign, but one that animated huge parts of the electorate. Nawrocki won 10.6 million votes, which was in absolute terms the highest number any president has taken since Lech Walesa, the Nobel peace prize laureate and figurehead of the Solidarity movement that overturned the communist regime, and who became head of state in 1990. Ewa Letowska, Poland's first civil rights ombudsman and an eminent jurist, said this was fundamentally a 'positive marker for our democracy' but it had been marred by tone of the debate. 'If only this engagement found reflection in the quality of debate and arguments put forward by the commentariat,' she said. Letowska added: 'What stood out in this election was the dismal, divisive and populist tone of public discourse, the depreciation of serious argument, and the instrumentalisation of the law, reduced to a mere tool of short-term electoral propaganda.' What it means for Europe On the international stage, Nawrocki's win was celebrated by the populist right as a breakthrough and the start of a reversal in Poland, following Tusk's victory a year and a half ago. Nawrocki had been repeatedly endorsed by the Trump administration, with an invitation to the White House and a trip to Poland by Kristi Noem, the United States's homeland security secretary, who suggested he was the only candidate who could safeguard American troops in Poland. Tom Rose, Trump's ambassador to Poland, was jubilant, posting on X: 'CONGRATULATIONS'. Nawrocki also received congratulations from Hungary's hard-right prime minister Viktor Orban, the only other world leader to have endorsed him for the presidency, and from Marine Le Pen, the leader of the populist National Rally in France. In other European capitals, however, there is concern. After years of conflict between Poland and the European Commission, Tusk's efforts to rebuild relations and put his country at the top table alongside France and Germany have been well received. Now his partners in Europe fret that he will be paralysed by political deadlock and on a permanent emergency footing. Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, a Poland analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said the country would remain a 'rising military and economic power' but had not set out on a 'path away from Europe'. She also predicted that Poland's policy towards Ukraine, already subject to intense internal disputes, would become a 'battleground'. Jazowska said: 'Nawrocki in office will 'spoil' Tusk's four-year term by vetoing his government's legislation on restoring the rule of law, social liberalisation, and strengthening ties with Europe. '[He] will elevate his anti-European, anti-German and anti-migration rhetoric in public discourse while intensifying the anti-Ukrainian sentiment … Nawrocki supports a just peace in Ukraine and, unlike Donald Trump, clearly identifies Russia as the aggressor … But he will block any deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine and attach strict conditions to Ukraine's EU membership bid.'
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
'Make America Hot Again' socials bring young conservative singles together in New York City
While New York City is a Democratic stronghold, young conservative movers and shakers are meeting other singles at a new series of events in the Big Apple. Political polarization, particularly that between young men and women, has become an internationally recognized phenomenon in recent years. One example from pop culture erupted earlier this spring when "Love is Blind" stars Sara Carton and Ben Mezzenga did not get married during the season finale because Carton had reservations about Mezzenga's religious and political viewpoints, including on the Black Lives Matter movement. As this polarization continues, some young conservatives, particularly those in left-leaning cities, are relying on events geared towards their political persuasion to find love. 'Love Is Blind' Star Sara Carton Rejects Ben Mezzenga At The Altar Over Views On Religion, Black Lives Matter Conservative influencer Raquel Debono, 29, spoke to The New York Post about why she founded "Make America Hot Again," which the outlet described as "a cheeky movement throwing parties for young conservatives around NYC at hot spots like downtown's Sincerely, Ophelia and Trump Tower." She touted her events as specifically different from other Republican mixers, declaring, "'We're really just normal people, we're the city conservative," in a recent Instagram video. Read On The Fox News App "With her regular bacchanals that can swell to as many as 300 people, love is definitely in the air," The New York Post's Doree Lewak wrote. Recalling one couple who found romance and got "hot and heavy" at an event in May, Debono commented, "That's why I throw these — I'm trying to find my husband." Dc Matchmaker Says Political Polarization 'On Steroids' As Liberals Refuse To Date Trump Voters, Tesla Owners She reported a male majority at the events, with a 60-40 split in favor of men from the "bro and tech vote." "I have met a few lovely young men, but as they say, the coach doesn't play," Debono said to the New York Post. Brent Morden, the vice president of the New York Young Republican Club, who recently made headlines with a popular gala, touted New York as a great place to find options, "if you know where to look." Dan Huff, the co-founder of Date Right Stuff, an app for conservative singles, told the New York Post that the app saw "tens of thousands of downloads right after the election." Click Here For More Coverage Of Media And Culture The New York Post added that this recent surge "adds to the app's nearly 400,000 downloads as the team focuses on New York with sought-after events that have drawn 'hundreds of attendees and generated strong buzz.'" "There's a spark in New York now, a reawakening," Huff said. The app's chief growth officer, Micaela Bishop, noted, "Our main focus is to build critical masses in these Democratic cities to make sure these people have somewhere to go."Original article source: 'Make America Hot Again' socials bring young conservative singles together in New York City
Fox News
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- Fox News
'Make America Hot Again' socials bring young conservative singles together in New York City
While New York City is a Democratic stronghold, young conservative movers and shakers are meeting other singles at a new series of events in the Big Apple. Political polarization, particularly that between young men and women, has become an internationally recognized phenomenon in recent years. One example from pop culture erupted earlier this spring when "Love is Blind" stars Sara Carton and Ben Mezzenga did not get married during the season finale because Carton had reservations about Mezzenga's religious and political viewpoints, including on the Black Lives Matter movement. As this polarization continues, some young conservatives, particularly those in left-leaning cities, are relying on events geared towards their political persuasion to find love. Conservative influencer Raquel Debono, 29, spoke to The New York Post about why she founded "Make America Hot Again," which the outlet described as "a cheeky movement throwing parties for young conservatives around NYC at hot spots like downtown's Sincerely, Ophelia and Trump Tower." She touted her events as specifically different from other Republican mixers, declaring, "'We're really just normal people, we're the city conservative," in a recent Instagram video. "With her regular bacchanals that can swell to as many as 300 people, love is definitely in the air," The New York Post's Doree Lewak wrote. Recalling one couple who found romance and got "hot and heavy" at an event in May, Debono commented, "That's why I throw these — I'm trying to find my husband." She reported a male majority at the events, with a 60-40 split in favor of men from the "bro and tech vote." "I have met a few lovely young men, but as they say, the coach doesn't play," Debono said to the New York Post. Brent Morden, the vice president of the New York Young Republican Club, who recently made headlines with a popular gala, touted New York as a great place to find options, "if you know where to look." Dan Huff, the co-founder of Date Right Stuff, an app for conservative singles, told the New York Post that the app saw "tens of thousands of downloads right after the election." The New York Post added that this recent surge "adds to the app's nearly 400,000 downloads as the team focuses on New York with sought-after events that have drawn 'hundreds of attendees and generated strong buzz.'" "There's a spark in New York now, a reawakening," Huff said. The app's chief growth officer, Micaela Bishop, noted, "Our main focus is to build critical masses in these Democratic cities to make sure these people have somewhere to go."
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Political views driving economic perceptions, Detroit Chamber poll finds
Hill Street Studios via Getty Images Political polarization has dramatically shifted voters' perceptions of the economy despite a lack of major economic change at the national level, Detroit Regional Chamber President Sandy Baruah told reporters while introducing the chamber's latest polling data released in concert with Tuesday's start of the 2025 Mackinac Policy Conference. The 2025 poll points to a continuing trend in the chamber's polling, with Richard Czuba, the president of the Chicago-based Glengariff which conducted the poll, telling reporters during a discussion of the 2024 data that political affiliation is a major factor in economic perception. While last year's assessment saw a more negative perception of the economy from Republicans and a more positive assessment from Democrats and independents, the 2025 assessment saw the opposite. 'Democrats have gone from 62% in January, thinking the economy is growing to now 17%. Independents have dropped from 35 to 25[%] but Republican base voters have jumped from 22 to 64[%] that think the economy is growing,' Czuba said. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX Of the 600 registered voters polled, 62.4% see a weakening economy, while 34.4% say it's growing. Fears of a recession have similarly jumped, rising from 20.5% in September to 27.2% in January and 38.2% in April, a shift Czuba attributes to Democrats and independents. 'Democrats' concern of a recession has gone from 43 to 73[%],' Czuba said. 'Independents have gone from 22 to 40[%], so doubled amongst independents. But base Republicans, fear of a recession has fallen from 15 to six[%],' he said. On inflation, Democrats' concerns have increased by 25 percentage points, while concern among independents has jumped by 21 percentage points. Republicans on the other hand saw a two percentage point decrease in their inflation concerns. Despite holding increasingly worse perceptions about the economy, voters aren't reporting big changes in their own situation, Czuba said. 'Right now, 26% say they're worse off than they were a year ago. 17 better, and 56% say the same. That's identical to January. 21% of those who are in the workforce are concerned about losing their job. That also is unchanged since January,' Czuba said. Additionally, 86% of voters polled said they believed their job would still be available in five years, compared to 8% who said it would not be. 'It's interesting who said it would not be. If you are lower income, household incomes under $50,000, you rise to 20% thinking your job will not be there. If you are a respondent in an automotive manufacturing household, it's 16%,' Czuba said. When looking at tariffs, 51% of Michiganders oppose President Donald Trump's tariff policies while 43% support them. However, 30% say they strongly support them while 43% strongly oppose the tariffs. There is no better issue to illustrate the divide amongst voters right now than tariffs, Czuba said, noting that 96% of Democrats oppose them while 92% of Republicans support them. Independent voters were split with 29% in support and 51% opposed. 'You can't get more divided than that,' Czuba said. Automotive households were similarly split with 48% in support and 46% opposed. However, voters across the board said that tariffs will cost them more money, with 78.6% voters in agreement. 'Even a majority of those base Republicans, strong Republicans, believe tariffs mean they pay more. While they agree they pay more, that doesn't stop them from supporting the tariffs. 92% of those base Republicans support the tariffs, while 56% say they will end up paying more,' Czuba said. 'Forty-nine percent of independents support the tariffs, and 87% of independents say they'll pay more. So a third of the voters who say tariffs are going to cost them more still support them.' In light of these tariff concerns, 55% of Democrats and 44% of independents have changed their spending habits. Twenty-one percent of voters overall said they've delayed purchases, while 14% said they sped them up. 'The top delays were automobiles and home improvement. The top sped up purchases were electronics, automobiles and home repairs,' Czuba said. Meanwhile only 7% of Republicans have altered their spending habits due to tariffs. Overall 21% of Michiganders polled said they'd been impacted by tariffs with the majority of that share citing increased costs. Additionally, while 54% of voters say tariffs will be bad for Michigan, 9% of that share still supported the new levies. However, 48% of respondents expected the tariffs would create more manufacturing jobs, compared to 28% who said they would create less and 15% who expected no change. The polling also looks specifically at the auto industry, with 65% of respondents saying it would hurt Michigan if China became the world leader on electric vehicles, with the majority of voters across every demographic group in agreement. Despite these concerns, Czuba noted that 35% of Republicans said it would have no impact on Michigan while 38% of auto manufacturing households gave the same answer, compared to 55% of auto households who agreed China leading the EV industry would hurt the state. While 56.3% of voters said the U.S. should compete for EV manufacturing and 57.9% saying Michigan should compete, 24% of voters who said letting China lead would hurt Michigan's economy still say Michigan should not lead, Czuba noted, with most of these voters being Republicans. Looking across the spectrum 72% of Democrats and 56% of independents agreed Michigan should compete aggressively for EV manufacturing, 54% of Republicans said the state should not compete. Czuba and Baruah also looked at education, with 70% of voters saying a college education is important for making a living wage and supporting a family, compared to 27% who said it's not important. However only 17% of voters said a four year college education is affordable. 'They do strongly agree and understand by a tune of two-thirds that a two year college education is affordable. And that's a good thing, because with the policy work that's been done in Michigan over the last few years, two years of college, either at community college or at a four year institution, is largely paid for, for most students should they choose to do that,' Baruah said. Czuba explained that while there's a large ecosystem telling students that they're crazy for pursuing a four-year degree due to the high cost, they're not hearing information on how to make college affordable, or at least reduce costs. 'So many issues are now getting dragged into the mill of polarization. There used to be a general consensus amongst Michigan voters for a long, long time that college education or further education was a good thing. We're starting to see that's not necessarily the case, because it's being whipped into this polarization mill that we have now,' Czuba said. In revisiting a data point from last year, Czuba also discussed Michigan voter's faith in democracy. 'Back in May of '24 29% were satisfied, 66% were dissatisfied. This year it's largely unchanged,' Czuba said. However, the big shift, once again, came down to political affiliation, with Democrat dissatisfaction jumping from 55% to 85% over the last year, and Independent dissatisfaction increasing from 63% to 75%. Republicans saw a shift in the opposite direction with dissatisfaction decreasing from 81% to 43% while their level of satisfaction increased from 15 to 51%. As Michigan stares down another election year, and what will likely be a hotly contested race for the Governors seat and the U.S. Senate, alongside multiple competitive U.S. House districts, Czuba emphasized one point. 'It's independents who are going to make decisions in Michigan. And so we have to pay particular attention to where they are on all of these issues.'
