Latest news with #populationdecline
Daily Mail
3 hours ago
- Science
- Daily Mail
Scientist reveals exactly how long it would take for humans to go EXTINCT if we stopped having babies
It is a terrifying prospect right out of a dystopian science fiction movie. But a scientist has now revealed exactly how long it would take for humanity to go extinct if we stopped having babies. Since very few people live beyond a century, you might think that humanity would take around 100 years to vanish. However, according to Professor Michael Little, an anthropologist at Birmingham University, we would probably disappear even faster. That's because there would eventually not be enough young people of working age to keep civilisation functioning. Writing in The Conversation, Professor Little explained: 'As an anthropology professor who has spent his career studying human behavior, biology and cultures, I readily admit that this would not be a pretty picture. 'It's likely that there would not be many people left within 70 or 80 years, rather than 100, due to shortages of food, clean water, prescription drugs and everything else that you can easily buy today and need to survive. 'Eventually, civilization would crumble.' If all of humanity suddenly lost the ability to have children, the world would not end overnight. Instead, the world's population would gradually shrink as the older generations die and fail to be replaced by the next. If there were enough food and supplies to go around, the world's population would simply get older until everyone currently on Earth died of old age. The countries that would show the most rapid declines would be those with already ageing populations such as Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, countries with younger populations such as Niger, where the median age is just 14.5, would remain well-populated for longer. However, much like in the science fiction classic Children of Men, Earth's extinction would not follow such a smooth trajectory into oblivion. Professor Little says: 'Eventually there would not be enough young people coming of age to do essential work, causing societies throughout the world to quickly fall apart. 'Some of these breakdowns would be in humanity's ability to produce food, provide health care and do everything else we all rely on. 'Food would become scarce even though there would be fewer people to feed.' This societal collapse would likely lead to Earth's depopulation well before most people live out their natural lifespans. Luckily, Professor Little says that an abrupt halt in births is 'highly unlikely unless there is a global catastrophe'. One possible scenario that could lead to such a disaster is the spread of a highly contagious disease which causes widespread infertility. Studies suggest there are only a small number of viruses which have an impact on male fertility, including deadly strains such as Zika virus and HIV. But none of these cause infertility in 100 per cent of cases and many only have mild impacts on fertility-related issues such as reduced sperm count. This means that a virus which wipes out the world's ability to reproduce thankfully remains a matter for science fiction. However, the possibility of facing a rapidly ageing population due to a declining birth rate is a far more pressing concern. The world's population has boomed in the last 100 years, expanding from just 2.1 billion in 1930 to 8.09 billion today. Current estimates suggest that humanity will continue to expand until the mid-2080s, reaching a peak of 10 billion. But as humanity reaches its peak size, the number of babies being born each year is already beginning to fall. In some cases, fertility rates have now fallen below the 'replacement rate' of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population. Combined with growing life expectancy, this means the average age of many countries has begun to increase. Billionaire Elon Musk - who has 14 children with four women - has for years warned about population collapse caused by a 'baby bust' in America and the West. In the UK, the Office for National Statistics found that the fertility rate fell to just 1.44 children per woman in 2024 down from the 'Baby Boom' of 2.47 children per woman in 1946. This is leading to a rapid increase in the average age, reaching 40.7 years in 2022 from 39.6 years in 2011. England and Wales only recorded 591,072 live births in 2023, the lowest number since 1977. This has brought the UK's fertility rate below the 'replacement rate' - the number of babies per woman needed to maintain a stable population Other countries are facing an even greater birth rate crisis, sparking serious concerns for economic growth. China, which artificially dropped its birth rate through the 'one child policy', has a fertility rate of just 1.18 children per women. This has led many to worry about how a dwindling working-age population will be able to care for a growing number of elderly people. While falling birth rates alone aren't likely to destroy humanity, Professor Little cautions that humans should be wary. Professor Little says: 'Our species, Homo Sapiens, has been around for at least 200,000 years. That's a long time, but like all animals on Earth we are at risk of becoming extinct.' He points to the example of the Neanderthals, a close relative of Homo sapiens, which lasted over 350,000 years before gradually declining and becoming extinct. Professor Little added: 'Some scientists have found evidence that modern humans were more successful at reproducing our numbers than the Neanderthal people. 'This occurred when Homo sapiens became more successful at providing food for their families and also having more babies than the Neanderthals.' So what is behind the West's baby bust? Women worldwide, on average, are having fewer children now than previous generations. The trend, down to increased access to education and contraception, more women taking up jobs and changing attitudes towards having children, is expected to see dozens of countries' population shrink by 2100. Dr Jennifer Sciubba, author of 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World, told MailOnline that people are choosing to have smaller families and the change 'is permanent'. 'So it's wise to focus on working within this new reality rather than trying to change it,' she said. Sex education and contraception A rise in education and access to contraception is one reason behind the drop off in the global fertility rate. Education around pregnancy and contraception has increased, with sex education classes beginning in the US in the 1970s and becoming compulsory in the UK in the 1990s. 'There is an old adage that 'education is the best contraception' and I think that is relevant' for explaining the decline in birth rates, said Professor Allan Pacey, an andrologist at the University of Sheffield and former chair of the British Fertility Society. Elina Pradhan, a senior health specialist at the World Bank, suggests that more educated women choose to have fewer children due to concerns about earning less when taking time off before and after giving birth. In the UK, three in 10 mothers and one in 20 fathers report having to cut back on their working hours due to childcare, according to ONS data. They may also have more exposure to different ideas on family sizes through school and connections they make during their education, encouraging them to think more critically about the number of children they want, she said. And more educated women may know more about prenatal care and child health and may have more access to healthcare, Ms Pradhan added. Professor Jonathan Portes, an economist at King's College London, said that women's greater control over their own fertility means 'households, and women in particular, both want fewer children and are able to do so'. More women entering the workplace More women are in the workplace now than they were 50 years ago — 72 vs 52 per cent — which has contributed to the global fertility rate halving over the same time period. Professor Portes also noted that the drop-off in the birth rate may also be down to the structure of labour and housing markets, expensive childcare and gender roles making it difficult for many women to combine career aspirations with having a family. The UK Government has 'implemented the most anti-family policies of any Government in living memory' by cutting services that support families, along with benefit cuts that 'deliberately punish low-income families with children', he added. As more women have entered the workplace, the age they are starting a family has been pushed back. Data from the ONS shows that the most common age for a women who were born in 1949 to give birth was 22. But women born in 1975, were most likely to have children when they were 31-years-old. In another sign that late motherhood is on the rise, half of women born in 1990, the most recent cohort to reach 30-years-old, remained childless at 30 — the highest rate recorded. Women repeatedly point to work-related reasons for putting off having children, with surveys finding that most women want to make their way further up the career ladder before conceiving. However, the move could be leading to women having fewer children than they planned. In the 1990s, just 6,700 cycles of IVF — a technique to help people with fertility problems to have a baby — took place in the UK annually. But this skyrocketed to more than 69,000 by 2019, suggesting more women are struggling to conceive naturally. Declining sperm counts Reproductive experts have also raised the alarm that biological factors, such as falling sperm counts and changes to sexual development, could 'threaten human survival'. Dr Shanna Swan, an epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, authored a ground-breaking 2017 study that revealed that global sperm counts have dropped by more than half over the past four decades. She warned that 'everywhere chemicals', such as phthalates found in toiletries, food packaging and children's toys, are to blame. The chemicals cause hormonal imbalance which can trigger 'reproductive havoc', she said. Factors including smoking tobacco and marijuana and rising obesity rates may also play a role, Dr Swan said. Studies have also pointed to air pollution for dropping fertility rates, suggesting it triggers inflammation which can damage egg and sperm production. However, Professor Pacey, a sperm quality and fertility expert, said: 'I really don't think that any changes in sperm quality are responsible for the decline in birth rates. 'In fact, I do not believe the current evidence that sperm quality has declined.' He said: 'I think a much bigger issue for falling birth rates is the fact that: (a) people are choosing to have fewer children; and (b) they are waiting until they are older to have them.' Fears about bringing children into the world Choosing not to have children is cited by some scientists as the best thing a person can do for the planet, compared to cutting energy use, travel and making food choices based on their carbon footprint. Scientists at Oregon State University calculated that the each child adds about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the 'carbon legacy' of a woman. Each metric ton is equivalent to driving around the world's circumference. Experts say the data is discouraging the climate conscious from having babies, while others are opting-out of children due to fears around the world they will grow up in. Dr Britt Wray, a human and planetary health fellow at Stanford University, said the drop-off in fertility rates was due to a 'fear of a degraded future due to climate change'. She was one of the authors behind a Lancet study of 10,000 volunteers, which revealed four in ten young people fear bringing children into the world because of climate concerns.
Daily Mail
a day ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
America's fastest-shrinking cities revealed
Nearly half of America's 30,000 cities will shrink by the end of the century, bringing 'unprecedented challenges' in keeping the lights on and buses running on schedule, researchers warn. Experts at the University of Illinois Chicago say the worst-affected cities could shed as much as 23 percent of people, as residents move out to the suburbs and beyond for cheaper living elsewhere. The hollowed-out cities will struggle to keep up basic services, as providers of public transit, internet cables and other suppliers will struggle to turn a profit after their customers have fled. Falling numbers of tax-paying residents will strain services further still. 'The implications of this massive decline in population will bring unprecedented challenges, possibly leading to disruptions in basic services like transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access,' they said. The finance website Insider Monkey analyzed the data and identified the 15 major US cities that will be hit the hardest. The biggest names are Cleveland, Baltimore, St. Louis, Birmingham , and Detroit. All these cities have been shrinking fast in recent decades as manufacturing jobs dried up. Detroit, once the center of the automotive industry, has been on the decline since the 1950s and is still hemorrhaging people by 1.3 per cent per year, researchers said. That miserable trend looks set to continue. Most of the worst affected big cities are in the rust belt across the Northeast and Midwest. But the impact of lost factory jobs is also a problem further south in Birmingham, Alabama, Memphis, Tennessee, and Columbus, Georgia. The decline in cities is part of a border population decline. America's population will peak at nearly 370million in 2080 before edging downward to 366million in 2100 , says the US Census Bureau. People are also drifting away from the Midwest and Northeast, while parts of the South record growth. Much of this is driven by retirees, who make up an ever-greater share of America's aging population, researchers said. They're budget-conscious and less keen on the high taxes and costs of housing and healthcare in many cities. Eye watering prices are also pushing out young professionals trying to start families. The University of Illinois Chicago's 13-page study suggests that immigration could offset some losses, but warns that the decline poses a headache for mayors and planners over the coming decades. 'Although immigration could play a vital role, resource distribution challenges will persist unless a paradigm shift happens away from growth-based planning alone,' researchers said. US Census Bureau projections released late last year showed that the population will start falling from 2081 to 2100, thanks to lower birth rates, an aging population, higher death rates and cross-border migration . The population growth rate between 2022 and 2100 will be 9.7 per cent, the bureau said – far lower than the nation has grown by throughout most of its history. That change will strain the US economy. With fewer younger, tax-paying workers to support the elderly, officials will struggle to balance budgets and make payouts for Medicare and other welfare schemes. It may also affect Washington's geopolitical standing, as it competes with such rising powers as China and India, which already have more than 1.4billion people each. Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau, said the new projections were 'crucial for shaping policies and planning resources'. They indicated a 'slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected,' she added. The makeup of the US population, which currently stands at around 332million, also looks set to change. The share of white Americans looks set to drop from 58.9 per cent now to as low as 42.7 per cent by 2060. Meanwhile, the Hispanic population could grow from 19.1 per cent to as high as 27.8 per cent over the same period. The share of black Americans looks set to hold steady at 13 per cent.
Washington Post
a day ago
- Science
- Washington Post
Chesapeake Bay's blue crab population falls to ‘distressing low'
Blue crabs in the Chesapeake Bay have dropped to a 'distressing low' number, experts say, marking several years of repeated declines and raising concern about their long-term health. The estimated number of crabs was 238 million, the second-lowest point since an annual blue crab dredge survey to measure their population started in the 1990s and coming shortly after 2022's record low of 226 million crabs, according to experts. The survey found that the decline hit all of the crustaceans, regardless of maturity or gender.
The Guardian
6 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Japan records lowest number of births in more than a century, as population fears grow
Japan's struggle to encourage couples to have more children has been given greater urgency after data showed the annual number of births dropped to below 700,000 for the first time since records began more than a century ago. According to government data released this week, the number of births reached 686,061 in 2024, a decline of 5.7% from the previous year and the lowest since statistics were first kept in 1899. The data excludes babies born to foreign residents. The fertility rate – the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime – also fell to a record-low of 1.15, down from 1.20 in 2023, the health ministry said. That is well below the rate of 2.1 needed to keep the population stable. The ministry said 1.6m deaths had been recorded in 2024, up 1.9% from a year earlier. The number of births and the fertility rate have fallen for nine years in a row, although the number of marriages was slightly up last year, two years after it dipped below half a million for the first time. The number of marriages – a key factor in influencing birth trends in a country where relatively few children are born out of wedlock – rose for the first time in two years to 485,063, up by 10,322 from a year earlier. But the downward trend seen since the 1970s remains unchanged. Japan's birthrate has been falling since it reached the second baby boom in 1973, falling below 1 million in 2016 and below 800,000 in 2022. Last year's figure is about one-quarter of the all-time peak of 2.7 million births in 1949. The latest figures will make uncomfortable reading for officials, as the number of births has fallen into the 680,000 range 15 years earlier than forecast by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, according to the Kyodo news agency. If current trends persists, Japan's population of about 124 million is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, when 40% of the population will be 65 or over. A shrinking and ageing population could have serious implications for the economy and national security, as the country seeks to boost its military to counter potential threats from China and North Korea. The prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who has described Japan's demographics as a 'silent emergency', recently unveiled measures to boost the birthrate, including an expansion of child allowance and free high school education, and a guarantee that couples will receive the equivalent of 100% of their take-home pay when they take parental leave at the same time. Ishiba's predecessor, Fumio Kishida, warned that the falling birthrate, combined with rising numbers of deaths, threatened Japan's ability 'to function as a society', adding the country had reached a 'now or never' moment to address its demographic crisis. But attempts by successive governments to ease the financial pressure on couples have had little effect, with statistics showing that people continue to marry later in life, a trend that results in smaller families. The government has been criticised for focusing on married couples rather than on younger, single people who have been put off the idea of marriage. Many cite poor employment prospects and job security, the rising cost of living, and a corporate culture that makes it difficult for female employees to become working mothers. A 2023 survey by the Nippon Foundation found that only 16.5% of people aged 17 to 19 believed they would get married, even though a much larger proportion wanted to do so.
CBC
6 days ago
- Business
- CBC
Japan just recorded its fewest annual births since it started keeping records
Social Sharing The number of newborns in Japan is decreasing faster than projected, with the number of annual births falling to a record low last year, according to government data released Wednesday. The Health Ministry said 686,061 babies were born in Japan in 2024, a drop of 5.7 per cent from the previous year and the first time the number of newborns has fallen below 700,000 since records began in 1899. The decline comes about 15 years faster than the government's prediction. Last year's figure is about one-quarter of the peak of 2.7 million births in 1949 during the postwar baby boom. The data in a country with a rapidly aging and shrinking population adds to concern about the sustainability of the economy and national security at a time the government seeks to increase defence spending. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has described the situation as "a silent emergency" and promised to promote a more flexible working environment and other measures that would help married couples balance work and parenting, especially in rural areas, where family values tend to be more conservative and harder on women. A global problem Japan is far from alone. Canada recorded its lowest-ever fertility rate for the second year in a row in 2023, according to Statistics Canada data released last fall, at 1.26 children born per woman. It joined the ranks of "lowest-low" fertility countries, including South Korea, Spain, Italy and Japan. WATCH | Why Canadians are having fewer children: Canadians are having fewer kids than ever 8 months ago Duration 0:59 For the second year in a row, Statistics Canada says the country recorded its lowest-ever fertility rate. We break down the stats, including which province is the lowest. Experts have linked a range of factors with reproductive decision-making, including the rising cost of living, eco-anxiety and shifting social norms around family size. More people are also delaying parenthood until later in life, which can shorten their reproductive window. In the United States, births and birth rates have been falling for years. They dropped most years after the 2008-09 recession, aside from a 2014 uptick. The Trump administration is reportedly mulling incentives that could include a $5,000 US "baby bonus," reserving scholarship placements for applicants who are married or have children, and motherhood medals for women who have six or more children, according to multiple media outlets. South Korea has implemented various measures to encourage young people to get married and have children, including tax cuts and subsidies, but it also expanded parental leave, increased paternity leave and added more flexible work schedules for parents. Last year, its fertility rate rose for the first time in nine years, from 0.72 to 0.75. Population projected to fall The Health Ministry's latest data showed that Japan's fertility rate — the average number of babies a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — also fell to a new low of 1.15 in 2024, from 1.2 a year earlier. Marriage was up slightly, to 485,063 couples, but the downtrend since the 1970s remains unchanged. Experts say the government measures have not addressed a growing number of young people reluctant to marry, while focusing largely on couples already married and planning to have a family, or those who already have children. The younger generation is increasingly reluctant to marry or have children due to bleak job prospects, a high cost of living and a gender-biased corporate culture that adds an extra burden on women and working mothers, experts say. A growing number of women also cite pressure to change their surnames to that of their husband as part of their reluctance to marry. Under civil law, couples must choose either surname to legally marry, a rule that traditionally has caused women to abandon their maiden names. Japan's population of about 124 million people is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, when 40 per cent of the population will be over 65.
