3 days ago
Paul Johnston: A step change in defence readiness for UK as stark threat of Russia emerges
I joined the Ministry of Defence in September 1990, shortly after the publication of 'Options for Change', the UK government's response to the end of the Cold War, with the collapse of the Warsaw Pact the previous year and the imminent unification of Germany.
Fast forward a third of a century and it's clear we are in a post-post-Cold War world. The assumptions we made then about a new era of rules-based cooperation and indeed of NATO partnership with Russia have been brutally shattered.
China is a sophisticated and enduring challenge to many of the West's interests. Extremism is a scourge in many parts of the world. The world is a bleaker, less stable, more complicated place than at any time in my professional life.
It was against that this backdrop that soon after the UK election last year Keir Starmer invited three external experts – former NATO Secretary General George Robertson, a retired General Richard Barrons and Fiona Hill, distinguished academic and former US NSA official - to work with our Ministry of Defence on a radical assessment of what UK Defence requires in the decade ahead.
Their review was published last week. Its conclusions are stark.
The threat we now face is more serious and less predictable than at any time since the Cold War, with the reality of war in Europe, growing Russian aggression, not just against Ukraine, nuclear risks, and daily cyber attacks.
Technology is exploited by our adversaries as fast as we seek to adopt it. Hostile nations and non-state actors cooperate more closely together.
The Review pulls no punches. It identifies Russia as an 'immediate and pressing' threat to Britain and our Allies. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine made clear its malign, neo-imperialist ambitions, its intent to re-establish its sphere of influence and to disrupt the international order.
The modernisation and expansion of Russia's armed forces pose an enduring threat to the West, despite its capabilities being seriously degraded through the war in Ukraine, by the bravery and resilience of Ukraine's armed forces and people.
The conclusion is inescapable.
As the international security environment deteriorates, the UK will redouble its efforts within NATO and step up its contribution to Euro-Atlantic security more broadly. Deterrence in, and defence of, the Euro-Atlantic region is a core role for UK Defence. Our forces contribute daily – and silently - to deterrence and we will strengthen them to create an integrated force optimised for warfighting to protect and defend NATO territory.
No-one in Britain's government relishes having to contemplate conflict, but it was long ago said 'if you want peace prepare for war'.
We will do so with a comprehensive all-of-government response, accepting all the Review's recommendations, focussing on readiness, resources and reform.
The review marks a significant shift in our deterrence and defence posture: moving to 'warfighting' readiness, to deter threats and strengthen security in the Euro Atlantic area.
We will have a 'NATO first' defence policy and strengthen our leadership within the Alliance. Defence, like charity, begins at home and we will establish a more lethal 'integrated force' equipped for the future and for strengthened homeland defence.
We will invest in new submarines, drones, armoured vehicles, but also in cyber, AI and the cutting-edge innovation technologies that will keep us ahead of our enemies.
Options for Change's 'peace dividend' released billions of pounds for wider public spending in the 1990s.
That's not an option today. Rather, we are investing in a defence and deterrence dividend, the largest sustained increase to UK defence spending since the end of the Cold War. We will increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027, and aim to reach 3 per cent in the next Parliament, ie by 2034.
This is also an investment in UK industry, skills, research and innovation. Our Defence Investment Plan will seize new technology opportunities and maximise the benefits of defence spending to grow the UK economy, creating jobs and prosperity through a new partnership with industry, and through radical procurement reforms.
For too long, defence investment, particularly defence procurement, has led to sub-optimal results. Projects come in behind time and over budget.
This is not unique to the UK or to the defence sector. But it is indefensible, and our Ministers are committed to tackling it. Overlong and complex processes will be streamlined, with innovation and procurement measured in weeks not years.
We will make UK Defence a more attractive market for private capital, by supporting and investing in start-ups and new technology companies in areas such as AI, quantum, and Space, and we'll remove the bureaucracy and red tape that are barriers to collaboration with Defence suppliers.
We will establish a new £400m (€475m) UK Defence Innovation fund to support and help grow companies throughout the whole of the UK.
'NATO First' does not mean 'NATO only'.
The agreement of the UK/EU Security and Defence Partnership on 19 May was an important moment.
As our leadership of the coalition of the willing on Ukraine has shown, we intend working cooperatively on European Security with the EU and bilaterally with European partners.
This includes, of course, with Ireland.
We committed to developing our defence relationship at the UK/Ireland Summit in March, and we're ready to do so, respecting Ireland's long-established military neutrality, but also the shared understanding that the world has changed and we are all, in our different ways, obliged to react.
Paul Johnston is the current British Ambassador to Ireland
