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New Study Links Surge in Pediatric Firearm Deaths to Looser State Gun Laws
A major new study published June 9th in JAMA draws a stark line between firearm policy and pediatric deaths in the U.S. — and the findings are sobering and statistically significant.
The research examined child and teen firearm mortality trends following the 2010 Supreme Court ruling McDonald v. Chicago, which expanded Second Amendment protections nationwide. While the ruling applied federally, individual states responded differently — some enacting looser gun laws in its wake, others maintaining or tightening restrictions. What followed, researchers say, was a divergence with life-and-death consequences.
Here, Jeremy Samuel Faust, M.D., M.S., M.A., FACEP (of the Brigham & Women's Hospital Department of Emergency Medicine) explains the results:
'We found that the increase in pediatric firearm deaths since [McDonald] is large, but essentially isolated to states that expanded firearm access laws in the following years,' the authors wrote. 'In places that did not expand access (NY, CA, CT, etc.), rates have not gone up and in some places are down.'
The numbers are stark. Over a 13-year period, there were approximately 7,400 more pediatric firearm deaths in so-called 'permissive' states than expected based on pre-McDonald trends — amounting to 573 additional deaths per year, all concentrated in states that rolled back gun restrictions.
By contrast, in states that maintained stricter laws — such as New York, California, and Connecticut — rates of firearm death among youth either remained steady or declined slightly. The gap is most visible in the study's data visualization, below: 'The yellow and blue lines are the most permissive firearm law states,' the study noted. 'The gray line is the strict group of states. As you can see, no change in the strict places compared to pre-McDonald trends, but massive ones in the others.'
Among the key findings:
Homicides made up the majority of pediatric firearm deaths, but suicides also rose.
The average age of victims was 14.
In permissive states, Black youth experienced the highest initial rates and the steepest increases in firearm mortality. In strict states, however, Black youth did not see an uptick.
States with strict gun laws — while still operating under the Second Amendment — avoided these increases entirely.
While not part of this study, previous data underscores the broader context: Firearms are now the leading cause of death for Americans aged 1 to 19. But that risk isn't evenly distributed. In Massachusetts, for example, firearms rank sixth among causes of death in that age group. In Mississippi, they're number one.
The bottom line: Gun laws matter — and when it comes to children, the difference in policies can be fatal.
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