07-05-2025
Ignore the do-gooders, we need more criminals in prison
The next crisis is already looming.
Our prisons are almost full again, and it is a near certainty that there will soon be another mass early release of violent criminals from their prison cells onto our streets.
Harold Macmillan once said that 'when all the establishment are united, they are always wrong'. Yet when it comes to prisons and sentencing – amongst the relevant portion of the establishment – there is a cosy consensus at play.
Sentencing policy is dominated by those who might be termed the 'prison reform industrial complex' – a small group of charities and individuals who operate in and around prisons.
When the Prisons Minister, Lord Timpson, made his maiden speech in the Lords last July, for instance, peer after peer declared an interest in one prison charity or another – rarely straying from the line that we should be incarcerating fewer criminals.
This should not come as a shock. These reform organisations want to improve prison conditions. But in practice, what these groups would like to see is for fewer criminals to be sent to prison.
Before he became a minister, in an interview last February, Lord Timpson said Britain is 'addicted to punishment' and 'a lot' of people in prison 'shouldn't be there'.
Such claims are not supported by the facts – and are at odds with the public mood on crime and how criminals should be dealt with.
Astonishingly, the most prolific offenders are sent to prison on less than half (46.2 per cent) the occasions after conviction for a further indictable or either-way offence. Given that last year an estimated 9.6 million crimes were committed in England and Wales – up 14 per cent from the previous year – that is deeply alarming.
The current limit on the number of prison places has led to police officers being told to 'pause arrests' and for the judiciary to consider prison capacity limits when sentencing those convicted of criminal offences.
One of the Government's key challenges is to show that they understand that people are fundamentally far more threatened by the loss of law and order than arguments around prison reform.
Some ministers appear to be wise to this. In her fight with the Sentencing Council over its plans to consider offenders' background when imposing sentences, Shabana Mahmood has shown herself to be willing to face down the 'blob' that permeates so many of our institutions. The Government's current plan – to increase the size of our prison estate by 14,000 places – is welcome too.
But the Government must go much further – an extra 43,000 prison places will be needed over the coming decade. It should also rebuild the prison regime so inmates can work and develop meaningful skills while in custody, activities that we know reduce the chances of reoffending on release.
A new consensus of decision makers, chosen by voters and doing what the public wants, is emerging. Large rewards lie in store for whoever turns it into a reality.
