Latest news with #pro-EuropeanUnion
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Revved-Up Polish Assets Dip as Election Erodes Pro-EU Tilt
(Bloomberg) -- Polish stocks and bonds — among the world's stand-out performers of 2025 — dipped after a nationalist unexpectedly won the presidential election, dealing a blow to the government. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Investors are concerned that the victory by the resurgent right, which has been emboldened by Donald Trump, may unravel Poland's pro-European Union tilt — impacting both fiscal and monetary policy and imperiling the rally in the nation's assets. Warsaw stocks slumped 3.4% on Monday before recouping about half of the losses, while the sovereign's dollar bonds were among the biggest losers in emerging markets. The zloty weakened 0.2% against the euro, trading in the middle of a pack of 31 major currencies. Now, traders will be watching how Prime Minister Donald Tusk works with incoming President Karol Nawrocki, which will dictate where the Polish 'risk premium lands,' according to Adnan El-Araby, a fund manager at Barings Emerging EMEA Opportunities. 'The outcome of the elections might harm the positive sentiment of this year, but there are always well managed companies that have the ability to grow earnings,' he said. 'We now have to be more selective.' Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer, won 50.9% of Sunday's runoff ballot, while centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.1%, according to unofficial tallies from the electoral commission. More Downside Henrik Gullberg, a macro strategist at Coex Partners, said the market-leading performances by Polish stocks and the zloty mean there's more downside to a Nawrocki win than upside had Trzaskowski come through. Poland's WIG20 equity index traded 2.1% lower as of 1 p.m. in Warsaw, with banks leading the selloff. The gauge was up 40% in dollar terms this year as of Friday's close, one of the strongest rallies globally. 'A Nawrocki win is thought to revive tensions with Brussels, stall judicial reforms, and therefore jeopardize access to over €130 billion ($148 billion) in crucial EU funding,' Gullberg said. The yield on benchmark 10-year local-currency government bonds increased 11 basis points to 5.47% on Monday. The asset class had returned nearly 16% in dollars since December — the best performance among developing markets after Brazil and Mexico until just before the ballot. Poland's fiscal deficit is front and center for investors. At more than 6% of economic output it's the largest in the EU after Romania's. Election-campaign promises risk further deepening the budget hole. The election 'will hinder the implementation of necessary reforms and may favor the maintenance of an excessively loose fiscal policy,' said Piotr Bujak, chief economist at PKO Bank Polski SA. This 'may worry foreign investors,' he said. Thwarted Agenda Tusk's agenda has been largely thwarted by the outgoing president, who, like Nawrocki, is backed by the opposition Law & Justice party. The election of a more radical successor could exacerbate the paralysis. 'It is feared that this stalemate will continue,' Commerzbank AG currency analysts Michael Pfister and Charlie Lay said. 'Similarly, the disbursement of EU funds, from which Poland has benefited significantly in recent years, is likely to be further delayed,' given the conflict between Law & Justice and the EU Commission. Piotr Matys, a strategist at In Touch Capital Markets Ltd., said the result creates the risk 'that Tusk's coalition may collapse, leading to early general elections,' which would otherwise be due in 2027. The premier, who will have a televised address at 8 p.m., may call a parliamentary vote of confidence in his cabinet, reported Monday. The ballot could also make Polish policymakers more reluctant to extend interest-rate cuts, according to economists at Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and Banco Santander SA. Derivatives used to wager on Polish interest rate levels ticked higher, signaling bets on less easing this year. State Assets Minister Jakub Jaworowski, who oversees the government's controlling stakes in seven of the companies in the WIG20 index, said Nawrocki's victory will prolong a period of 'elevated instability.' 'It has been difficult, but it will be now even harder,' he told a financial congress in Sopot, northern Poland, on Monday. He vowed to continue with the government's agenda focused on improving corporate governance and building shareholder value. --With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Joanna Ossinger, Maciej Martewicz, Andras Gergely, Peter Laca, Piotr Bujnicki and Agnieszka Barteczko. (Updates with new comments and market moves and political developments throughout.) 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Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Revved-Up Polish Assets Dip With Nationalist Winning Ballot
(Bloomberg) -- Polish stocks and bonds — among the world's stand-out performers of 2025 — declined after a nationalist unexpectedly won the presidential election, dealing a blow to the government. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Markets are concerned that the win by the resurgent right, which has been emboldened by Donald Trump, may unravel Poland's pro-European Union tilt and cut short the rally. Warsaw's benchmark stock index dropped as much as 3.4% in early trading, while the zloty and government bonds were also in the red. Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer, won 50.9%, while centrist Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.1%, according to Bloomberg News calculations based on data from 100% of precincts reported by the electoral commission. His win may jeopardize Prime Minister Donald Tusk's ambition to return Warsaw to the EU mainstream and maintain bloc funding. The premier may call a parliamentary vote of confidence in his cabinet, website reported on Monday. 'This election result may worry foreign investors,' said Piotr Bujak, chief economist at PKO Bank Polski SA. The outcome 'will hinder the implementation of necessary reforms and may favor the maintenance of an excessively loose fiscal policy. As a result, the zloty and bonds may come under some pressure,' he said. More Downside Henrik Gullberg, a macro strategist at Coex Partners, said there was more downside if Nawrocki wins than upside in case of a Trzaskowski victory, 'given that both Polish stocks and currency are among the top performers year-to-date.' Poland's WIG20 equity index traded 2.1% lower as of 9:14 a.m. in Warsaw, with banks leading the selloff. The gauge was up 40% in dollar terms this year as of Friday's close, one of the strongest rallies globally. Poland's dollar-denominated bonds were among the worst performers among developing-market peers on Monday. The zloty slipped as much as 0.6% against the euro to 4.2765, the weakest level since May 19, before paring the slide. 'A Nawrocki win is thought to revive tensions with Brussels, stall judicial reforms, and therefore jeopardize access to over €130 billion ($148 billion) in crucial EU funding,' Gullberg said. The yield on benchmark 10-year local-currency government bonds increased 10 basis points to 5.46% on Monday. The asset class has returned nearly 16% in dollars since December, the best performance among developing markets after Brazil and Mexico. Poland's fiscal deficit is front and center for investors: at more than 6% of economic output it's the largest in the EU after Romania's. Election-campaign promises risk further deepening the budget hole. 'The political backdrop means little chance of fiscal consolidation in the coming years, whatever is the outcome of the presidential elections,' Mai Doan, an economist at Bank of America Corp., said before the ballot. She expects only a short-lived impact on markets from Sunday's election. Feared Stalemate The election outcome is likely to exacerbate Poland's problems, according to Commerzbank AG currency analysts Michael Pfister and Charlie Lay. Tusk's policy agenda has been largely thwarted by outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who, like Nawrocki, is backed by the Law & Justice party. 'It is feared that this stalemate will continue,' they wrote in a note on Monday. 'Similarly, the disbursement of EU funds, from which Poland has benefited significantly in recent years, is likely to be further delayed,' given the conflict between Law & Justice and the EU Commission. Piotr Matys, a strategist at In Touch Capital Markets Ltd., said selling pressure on the zloty may increase on Monday if Nawrocki wins. The result creates a tail risk 'that Tusk's coalition may collapse leading to early general elections,' he said. --With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Joanna Ossinger, Maciej Martewicz, Andras Gergely, Peter Laca and Piotr Bujnicki. (Updates with latest market reactions from the first paragraph, adds report on potential vote of confidence in the prime minister.) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
2 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Karol Nawrocki clinches narrow victory in Poland's presidential race
Karol Nawrocki , a conservative nationalist and EU sceptic, has narrowly won Poland 's presidential election, continuing a significant shift in the country's political power landscapes and intensifying the nation's deep ideological divisions. According to official results released by the electoral commission on Monday, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote. He won against liberal, pro-European Union rival Rafał Trzaskowski , the mayor of Warsaw, who garnered 49.11%, representing Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) party. Nawrocki, 42, is a historian and amateur boxer closely associated with Poland's right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. His campaign focused on prioritizing economic and social policies for Polish citizens, often at the expense of foreign nationals, including Ukrainian refugees. He has also voiced skepticism about Ukraine's potential NATO membership, a stance that drew criticism from Kyiv and further highlighted the election's geopolitical significance. The election outcome is a setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk 's centrist, pro-EU government, which had sought to reverse many of the nationalist reforms enacted during PiS's eight-year rule. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villas Prices In Dubai Might Be More Affordable Than You Think Villas In Dubai | Search Ads Get Quote Undo Nawrocki's presidency ensures that the powerful presidential veto—frequently used by outgoing President Andrzej Duda—remains in the hands of the nationalist opposition, complicating Tusk's efforts to liberalize policies on issues such as abortion and judicial independence. Nawrocki's victory was celebrated by his supporters, with chants of 'Karol Nawrocki, the president of Poland,' as he declared, 'We will win tonight'. The result was closely watched across Europe, the United States, and Russia, given Poland's strategic role on NATO's eastern flank and its support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. Live Events The narrow margin and high turnout—over 71%—underscore Poland's polarization, with Nawrocki drawing strong support from younger voters and rural regions, while Trzaskowski prevailed among expatriates and in western urban centers. As Nawrocki prepares to take office, Poland faces a period of political uncertainty, with two competing power centers—the government and the presidency—likely to clash over the country's future direction.
AU Financial Review
2 days ago
- Politics
- AU Financial Review
Trump-backed former boxer wins Poland's election
Warsaw | A nationalist candidate backed by Donald Trump won Poland's presidential election, defeating the centrist mayor of Warsaw in a blow to the country's pro-European Union government. Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer with no previous political experience, won 50.9 per cent, while Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.1 per cent, according to the results released by the electoral commission early on Monday.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pro-Trump Nationalist Wins Poland's Presidential Election
(Bloomberg) -- A nationalist candidate backed by Donald Trump won Poland's presidential election, defeating the centrist mayor of Warsaw in a blow to the country's pro-European Union government. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer with no previous political experience, won 50.9%, while Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.1%, according to the results released by the electoral commission early on Monday. Nawrocki's surprise victory gives his party, the opposition Law & Justice, a powerful lever to stymie Prime Minister Donald Tusk's agenda and will complicate the premier's efforts to make Poland a key player in the EU. It's also a success of Trump's MAGA movement, which has sought and failed to tip elections in favor of nationalist or far-right candidates in countries including Germany, Romania, Canada and Australia. In months of campaigning, the 42-year-old nationalist managed to close what had been a formidable lead by Trzaskowski, a close ally of the prime minister. When the voting ended on Sunday, Nawrocki dismissed an early exit poll that showed his rival in the lead. 'We will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki,' he told supporters. The outcome may undercut Polish assets, which have broadly rallied since Tusk's alliance won power two years ago. Warsaw's WIG20 stock index has jumped 61% in dollar terms since the last parliamentary election, while government bonds returned 28%, most among emerging markets after South Africa and Thailand. The zloty weakened about half a percent against the euro, while yields on Poland's international bonds ticked higher in early Monday trading. The narrow margin laid bare the polarization that's gripped the nation of 37 million, with issues such as migration, abortion and European integration sharply dividing voters. While Trzaskowski enjoyed strong backing in Warsaw and Poland's bigger cities, the rural vote and support in smaller towns appears to have been crucial in shaping the outcome. Poland is of the EU's fastest-growing economies and biggest spenders on defense and the setback for Tusk's government is likely to reverberate across the bloc which is under mounting pressure from Trump's tariffs and Russia's threat to the east. Nawrocki's campaign had won the backing of the White House, where he briefly met Trump in the Oval Office last month. On a visit to Poland last week, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem held out the prospect of close ties with Trump as an incentive to vote for Nawrocki and dismissed Trzaskowski as 'an absolute train-wreck of a leader.' Tusk sought to position Poland as a key player in the EU, especially as it seeks to ramp up support for neighboring Ukraine, and to restore women's rights. But his program has been stalled by divisions within the coalition and the threat of vetoes by the current president Andrzej Duda, who also hails from the Law & Justice. Nawrocki told his supporters that his victory would amount to a check on Tusk's 'monopoly' on power, which 'takes away our great dreams and takes away our aspirations.' Tusk's surprise election victory in 2023 had offered the promise that Poland would be able to restore the rule of law and bolster independent media which has been weakened during the previous eight years of nationalist rule. The most immediate problem for Tusk may be how to reinforce the independence of judges following Law & Justice's rule which ended in 2023. His plans for judicial reform were crucial in persuading the EU to release tens of billions of funding but the final legislation has been held up by Duda, who threatened to bloc it. While political power is held by the prime minister, Poland's president can veto bills, nominate the central bank governor and lead the country's armed forces. The head of state is elected to a five-year term and is limited to two terms. The two candidates encapsulated the nation's divide: Trzaskowski, the polyglot son of a jazz musician, against Nawrocki, who heads the Institute for National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes. A political newcomer, Nawrocki spent the campaign touting his core Catholic values while railing against migration and the EU's attempts to fight climate change. His campaign was hit by allegations over a property purchase from an elderly seller and his participation in arranged fights between soccer hooligans. He also ruled out Ukraine's membership in NATO. The turnout was 71.6%, compared with a record 74.4% during parliamentary elections two years ago and 68.2% in the last presidential runoff in 2020. While Tusk is admired abroad as the man who took on populism and won, his popularity at home has been waning because of disillusionment over his ability to deliver. The ballot could expose further cracks in Tusk's fractious three-way coalition and energize Nawrocki's backers in the the Law & Justice party as well as surging far-right factions ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections. Tusk may call a vote of confidence in his government as early as this week, website reported Monday, citing ruling party official it didn't name. --With assistance from Piotr Bujnicki, Deana Kjuka, Wojciech Moskwa, Konrad Krasuski and Natalia Ojewska. (Updates with official results, details starting in the second paragraph.) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
