Latest news with #projections
New York Times
19-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Explaining THE BAT X projections: Using advanced metrics for fantasy baseball and betting
THE BAT X is a sophisticated baseball projection system I have developed over the past 15+ years using advanced statistical techniques and methodology. I've worked with and learned from several analysts, many of whom are now working or making decisions in front offices, meaning this system uses the types of techniques used by actual MLB teams. Advertisement It offers a comprehensive, data-rich approach to projecting baseball performance. It is grounded in statistical rigor and aligned with professional analytical practices. It is regularly found to be the most accurate projection system available and has proven successful in my leagues and for many others. Projections like those from THE BAT X are not definitive predictions; they represent the weighted average of all possible outcomes. They are informed estimates based on a multitude of factors. A key concept here is regression to the mean: Players performing above their typical level are expected to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This principle helps prevent overreactions to short-term performance spikes or slumps. While we may want to believe the young player who gets off to a strong start is completely for real (and he certainly could be), history tells us the more likely outcome is he gets worse going forward. THE BAT X uses a wide range of metrics, including advanced Statcast metrics like barrels and exit velocity, to help inform its projections. It also considers a wide range of contextual factors in addition to player talent indicators, such as ballpark effects, weather conditions, umpire tendencies, defensive alignments and a whole lot more, to provide a comprehensive view of the variables influencing player performance over any given time. THE BAT X isn't just comprehensive — it's consistently among the most accurate projection systems in the industry. In FantasyPros' 2024 accuracy competition, which evaluated over a dozen projection systems based on real-life player results, THE BAT X ranked as the single most accurate original projection system for the fifth straight year. No projection system is perfect and all will have 'misses,' but THE BAT X is as accurate as they come. (Photo by Al Bello / Getty Images)
New York Times
12-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Fade Jacob Wilson, target Dylan Cease
Welcome to The Athletic's weekly fantasy baseball cheat sheet. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years, The Athletic has developed a weekly reference to help fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. This week's iteration suggests adding Royce Lewis and Brenton Doyle, fading Jacob Wilson and trading for slow-starting Gunnar Henderson. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections based on a 12-team, mixed league format. For first-time readers, we compare year-to-date value (expressed as dollars, where $0 would represent a replacement-level player) against their projected rest-of-season value. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know. Advertisement The Twins' Royce Lewis, recently off the injured list, provides an instructive example. While the projections expect a massive surge in value, that change is in part because Lewis has been dreadful to this point, so keep this in context. Lewis has a .111 batting average in 19 plate appearances, but the former first-round draft pick did have a solid 2023 with a .309 average and .921 OPS in 239 plate appearances before regressing in 2024. While Lewis could be a cheap source of power (projecting somewhere in the mid-to-high teens for HRs in 2025), his expected average this year is .209. All of this to point out that while THE BAT X projects his value will rise, it's only expected to reach $5.80. This makes him a speculative addition, but given no major projection system sees him topping 95 games this season, he's probably not a plug-and-play, everyday solution. Of the players on this list, Rockies OF Brenton Doyle, who has been in a slump lately, has the highest rest-of-season value at $19.90. On the pitching side, the Diamondbacks' Eduardo Rodriguez has gone 1-3 with a 6.86 ERA, but his expected ERA is 4.52 — still nothing to write home about, but more in line with his previous seasons. His cutter, sinker, and slider are performing much better than last year, while his changeup and four-seamer are suffering. He may never be above average, but THE BAT X projects his value will improve and could be a worth a spot start if there's a favorable matchup. Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, whose current value is one of only two players with a positive value, has the highest rest-of-season grade. He has a 2.78 ERA with a respectable 23.4 strikeout percentage and is projected to improve. He's someone to target right away. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. A's shortstop Jacob Wilson has a year-to-date value of $23.40 but a projected rest-of-season value of -$1.60. He's hitting .348, and his xBA is .317 (in the 97th percentile). It's not time to drop him yet, but he finished last year with a .250 average in 103 plate appearances as a rookie. Watch closely for regression. The following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections, according to THE BAT X projection system. These suggestions are based on differentials. You're not going to want to fade the Yankees' current ace, Max Fried, or the Astros' Hunter Brown, who have rest-of-season values above $20, but you could look to shop the Rangers' Tyler Mahle, Kodai Senga of the Mets or the Yanks' Carlos Rodon before they cool off, as THE BAT X projects. Robbie Ray, in San Francisco, or Seth Lugo, of the Royals, who have current values of $10.20 and $9.50, respectively, but rest-of-season values in the negative, could be fade candidates in shallower leagues with other high-performing pitchers available. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Gunnar Henderson stands out as a player to target in trades. He's hitting .264 with an xBA that's similar, but his hard-hit percentage of 56.0 is in the 95th percentile, and his bat speed is in the 9oth percentile. His OPS is below .800 for the first time since 2022, when he had only 132 plate appearances, but we know what he's capable of. THE BAT X thinks he'll improve and you may be able to get him at a relative bargain if his current manager isn't as convinced he'll come around. On the pitching side, the Braves' Chris Sale makes the list again but you can see he's already showing improvement, with his value rising to -9.90 from -17.10 last week. No one will trade Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but a rest-of-season value of $46.60 is absurd, so good for you if you have him on your team. You may be able to get Padres starter Dylan Cease, who's 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA, significantly underperforming preseason expectations. His expected ERA is only 4.05, but his fastball velocity is in the 86th percentile, and his Whiff% of 30.4 is in the 81st percentile. His K% of 27 is solid. He is getting hit pretty hard, but if he can bring his 9.6 BB% down, he could improve dramatically, as THE BAT X suggests. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups. Alex Verdugo, Sal Frelick and Javier Sanoja top the list, but Marcell Ozuna, James Wood and Jackson Chourio also have favorable matchups with higher fantasy and underlying values. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Advertisement Leody Taveras stands out on this list, as his xwOBA is only .222. He's only batting .237 now and is not above the 36th percentile in any Statcast batting category. He's an excellent fielder with good baserunning value (seven stolen bases so far), but he's unlikely to improve at the plate. He's heavily available on waivers — leave him there. Hard-hitting catchers aren't readily available, so Hunter Goodman has provided good value at the position, but regression is expected. He's hitting .288, but his xBA is only .236. He could be someone to consider trading if you have another high-performing catcher on your roster, or you could flip him for a catcher with better projections. If you need a catcher, and he's on waivers, grab him with caution. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman was projected to have a phenomenal season and hasn't met expectations. He's only batting .203, but his xBA is .268, and he's in the 95th percentile or above in Whiff%, Chase%, and Squared-Up%. His barrels are average, and his HH% is low, but he's also had bad luck. Hold him, grab him or trade for him if you can. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. It's no surprise that the Dodgers top this list, but the Cincinnati Reds face the White Sox and Guardians, so Elly De La Cruz and company could see better weeks. Maybe Matt McLain, who is batting .165 with a Barrel% in the 69th percentile and a HardHit% in the 73rd, could begin to recover some value. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Tarik Skubal, which is no surprise. But here's Dylan Cease again (see above). This list is full of top-tier pitchers who happen to be projected for two starts. I'd be surprised if anyone left these pitchers on the bench this week. Colin Rea, who has the highest projected ERA on this list, has a 2.43 ERA this season and faces the Marlins and White Sox. He could outplay even these projections. THE BAT X has Carlos Rodon as the only top pitcher to consider benching, as he faces the Mets. But, Corbin Burnes was on the list last week and ended up with a win against the Dodgers. Rodon hasn't pitched as well as Burnes, though, and the Mets are a formidable opponent, so tread lightly. Based on matchups, the Cubs' bullpen could provide tremendous value against the Marlins and White Sox. Gavin Hollowell and Daniel Palencia both have sub-2.00 ERAs. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Dylan Cease: Al Bello / Getty Images)
New York Times
08-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
What does it take to improve your batting average and ERA in fantasy baseball?
It's early May, and you may be wondering if it's already too late to claw your way up the standings. Or maybe you can see a championship this year if you could just gain 20 points of batting average or drop your ERA by a third of a run. But can you? Short answer: yes, but you'll have to improve going forward. Here, I will quantify how much better you need to be as the season approaches the quarter mark. Advertisement Let's say you aspire to lift your team batting average from .240 to .260 — a big jump, but plenty doable. What's it going to take? The season is 23% done. If you can run a .266 average the rest of the way, you'll end up at .260. Another way to think of it is you gain 10 points of batting average for every 62 hits you add to your team total. (These are approximations based on typical league sizes. Your actual mileage may vary.) The chart below reminds us that most of the season is left. The first column is your team's batting average now, the first row is its average the rest of the way, and the intersection is where you'll end up. What's that going to take? Let's say you swap out a low-average slugger — Kyle Manzardo, perhaps — for a contact master like Jacob Wilson. Projections give Wilson around 40 more hits over the rest of the season, which is good for about six points of batting average. Not bad, but you'll have to make three swaps like that to get your 20-point lift. Or maybe you don't. After all, if your team is underperforming in a category, it likely means you have some positive regression coming your way. At this point last year, Corbin Carroll was hitting .208. He finished the year at .288, including the dismal start. All of this is true in reverse, too. If you're sitting pretty with all the BABIP luck, check the chart above to see where you might end up if you're not as fortunate in the future, and plan around that. Let's do the same for ERA. Here's the equivalent chart, again with the season so far in the first column and rest-of-season in the first row. So, yes, you can drop half a run off that 4.00 ERA, it just means being a touch under 3.40 going forward. Not easy! But again, if this is an issue for you, positive regression will likely be your friend. Michael King, Tanner Bibee and George Kirby were among the names looking lackluster a year ago today. There are also always unexpected names that pop up. Michael Wacha, Erick Fedde, Ronel Blanco and Sean Manaea were all stellar from this point forward last year. Advertisement Let's also imagine you can make a roster move (trade or otherwise) that gives you a half-run gain on ERA, say a Merrill Kelly or Brayan Bello to Cristopher Sanchez (based on projections). How much does that help? Each tenth of an ERA point is equivalent to 16.1 earned runs in a 1,450-inning season. ATC projects Kelly and Bello to have 4.08 ERAs going forward, and Sanchez to be significantly better at 3.58, with five more innings. That amounts to … five earned runs! Pitchers walk a fine line. Last year, seven earned runs separated Corbin Burnes from Sean Manaea. So, to get your ERA down a tenth of a point, you'll need half-run improvements from three starters. With relievers, you have to make even bigger jumps in quality to get the same results: Carlos Estevez is projected to give up five more runs for the rest of the year than Mason Miller. These improvements won't fall into your lap, but they are achievable. We don't need to do this for every stat, but to give you a sense of the work cut out for you, we're at the point in the season where only a few players are projected for 30+ homers or steals going forward. Gaining 20 homers is likely to be a multi-player effort, unless you do something like swap Anthony Santander for Steven Kwan. It's a similar story with strikeouts, but again, with pitching, you are more likely to find lightning in a bottle. You can try to trade for a strikeout specialist like Carlos Rodon, or take your chances on a Yusei Kikuchi bounce-back or a big debut from Cade Horton. Wherever your team is, it can make big gains (or losses!) from here, and now is the time to map out how you will make that happen. (Top photo of Christopher Sanchez: Jamie Sabau / Getty Images)
