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New York Times
5 days ago
- General
- New York Times
Fantasy bullpen report features concern for closers Mason Miller and Tanner Scott
As spring transitions into summer, so do high-leverage roles in fantasy baseball. After Wednesday's loss in Detroit, Giants manager Bob Melvin announced Camilo Doval will resume closer duties, with Ryan Walker returning to a set-up role. Walker has pitched better of late, but his 1.30 WHIP and reduced swinging strike rate necessitated the change. Doval takes over amid a 19-game scoreless streak, during which he has recorded two wins, three saves, seven holds and 18 strikeouts against five walks (21.7 K-BB percentage) over 18 innings. Advertisement Last week, Texas reliever Luke Jackson was featured in my 'Closer Concerns' section and he has since been removed from save situations by Bruce Bochy. Robert Garcia recorded the first save since this occurred, but based on recent usage patterns, he may be deployed as the highest-leverage reliever (HLR) rather than as a traditional closer. Roles may be settling in for the Pirates, with David Bednar recording the past two saves, but I will continue to list them as a shared save situation in my leverage pathways for at least one more week. In Arizona, Justin Martinez returned from the injured list and will be 'eased' into save chances, while A.J. Puk ramps up his return to pitch protocols with an eye on being activated in late June. With all this in mind, my leverage pathways have been updated. Here are the high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels: Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. Robert Garcia (TEX): Despite allowing a run in three straight appearances between May 18 and 25, he recorded a save on May 27 and was used against Toronto's 2-3-4 lineup pocket the following day. This may designate him as the highest-leverage reliever and the preferred save share moving forward. Kumar Rocker will not be used as a reliever, but Jon Gray could return as one by July. Griffin Jax (MIN): Over his past six games, he has recorded 13 strikeouts against one walk (57.1 K-BB percentage) with a 0.50 WHIP and an 18.9 percent swinging strike rate. Seranthony Dominguez (BAL): He struggled early on incorporating a split-finger fastball into his arsenal, but he has surged in recent appearances, posting a save, a hold, and six strikeouts versus zero walks (42.9 K-BB percentage) in his past three games, spanning four innings. Advertisement Mason Miller (ATH): It's been a rough month for the talented reliever. He has allowed at least a run in four of eight May appearances, and multiple runs in three of those contests. It's resulted in 11 runs (10 earned) across 7.2 innings, including two home runs. Contact has been an issue — he's allowed six barrels in his first 34 batted ball events this season (17.6 barrel percentage) versus seven all of last year across 123 events. His hard-hit rate percentage has risen from 32.5 percent in 2024 to its current 50 percent. What is confusing is he has reduced his contact rate by over five percent, but his Z-contact (in the strike zone) has increased by four percentage points. Delving a bit deeper, his strike percentage has decreased by three percent, and his first-strike percentage sits 6.7 percentage points below last season. Count leverage affected Devin Williams earlier this season and could be the culprit in this scenario as well. Baseball-Reference tracks 3-0 count and 0-2 count percentages: All three home runs Miller has allowed this season have been against his four-seam fastball, which has a .373 expected weighted on-base average with a .532 expected slugging percentage. Fine-tuning his command in the strike zone with the fastball can put him in advantageous counts, allowing him to deploy his devastating slider (27.9 swinging strike percentage in 2025). His current 5.79 ERA is accompanied by a 1.94 SIERA and a 3.41 xERA. This is a broad range of predictors, and his rest-of-the-season results probably lie somewhere between them. Trust in his talent while monitoring his results in June. Reed Garrett (NYM): He hasn't been scored upon in his past seven appearances and recorded a save in the past two. He will not be replacing Edwin Díaz anytime soon, but in mixed leagues, he represents a viable stream option for saves. Ben Casparius (LAD): Across his past three relief outings, he has racked up 10 strikeouts against one walk (56.2 K-BB%) in five innings. In 17 appearances as a reliever this season, he has logged 32.2 innings, with 37 strikeouts against six walks (23.8 K-BB percentage), a 15.1 swinging strike percentage and a 0.98 WHIP. Advertisement Randy Rodríguez (SF): Although Doval will garner most of the attention this week, Rodríguez has been racking up strikeouts. Through 11 games in May, he has recorded two wins and four holds across 12 scoreless frames, with 20 strikeouts versus three walks (40.5 K-BB percentage), a 0.58 WHIP and a robust 21.5 swinging strike percentage. Tanner Scott (LAD): He has allowed multiple runs in three of his past five appearances, including Wednesday's loss and blown save in Cleveland. He has experienced a spike in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), combined with extended outings where injuries have decimated his leverage ladder. This chart breaks down his results from his first 21 games compared to his past five: There are more whiffs available if he ramps up his slider use, though he has not thrown as many this season. Do not overreact to this small sample, but do monitor how he responds during his outings in June. Here is his rolling-game chart from FanGraphs: *Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. Statistical Credits (through games played on May 28): and Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates. (Photo of Mason Miller: Ross Cameron / Imagn Images)
New York Times
22-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy bullpen report featuring Andrew Kittredge, Luke Jackson, Trevor Megill and more
It feels like there is never a dull moment in the high-leverage realm. Since my last post, Porter Hodge has been placed on the injured list, just when it seemed he would emerge as the Cubs' preferred save share. Daniel Palencia has emerged as the preferred option, securing one of two save chances in Miami. Brad Keller was deployed as the highest-leveraged reliever, and Drew Pomeranz could be in the mix against a left-handed heavy lineup pocket in the ninth inning. Ryan Pressly has appeared in the seventh inning in his past two games. Advertisement Meanwhile, a shared save situation has developed under new manager Don Kelly in Pittsburgh. David Bednar and Dennis Santana recorded saves on consecutive days. Availability remains a key component in a situation like this; however, a trend has emerged when looking at which batters in the opponent's lineup the relievers have faced in six games each. Bednar has faced the third hitter in all six appearances, while Santana has faced the bottom third of the lineup in most of his. This makes predicting when each will be receiving the save chance difficult since it's dependent on how the batting order progresses ahead of the ninth inning. Still, it also means each maintains a level of fantasy relevance depending on league size. Last but not least, José Alvarado was suspended for 80 games, leaving Jordan Romano as the primary save option in Philly. However, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm will be part of Rob Thomson's 'floating closer' concept. With this in mind, our leverage pathways have been updated, and in one situation (Arizona), it anticipates a reliever being activated ahead of his team's series this weekend. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels: Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. Andrew Kittredge (BAL): Newly activated from the injured list, he worked a clean seventh inning and might emerge as the eighth-inning reliever for the Orioles. His arrival may be well-timed given the recent struggles by Yennier Cano and the closer (more below). Justin Slaten (BOS): He started the season strong, went through rough patches and has returned to dominant form. He's been scoreless in his past six appearances, recording five strikeouts against zero walks (22.7 K-BB percentage) over 7.2 clean innings. Félix Bautista (BAL): The good news is that he had his first consecutive-day appearance on Wednesday. However, it resulted in Bautista's first blown save, and he has allowed at least a run in four straight contests. Since May 9, he has allowed two home runs among his five hits, five earned runs and five walks, while striking out three. Of more significant concern, he's only thrown 50% of his pitches for strikes in this limited sample. For the season, he has a 43.8 first-strike percentage, down almost 15% compared to 2023, and his 9.4 K-BB% and 1.43 WHIP are hurting his fantasy managers. Luke Jackson (TEX): Jackson recorded his last save on April 25. In the seven games since, he's allowed runs in three, including a walk-off home run against the Yankees on May 21. Across these four innings, he has five strikeouts versus five walks with a 2.75 WHIP and two home runs among his six hits allowed. He's throwing fewer strikes, allowing hard contact and inducing fewer whiffs, which remains a dangerous combination for a closer: His replacement may not be on the active roster, but don't be surprised if Kumar Rocker or Jon Gray receive save chances at some point in June. Abner Uribe (MIL): He owns a 13-game streak without allowing a run, recording 21 strikeouts against five walks (32.7 K-BB percentage) with a 1.083 WHIP. In this sample, he owns a 15.4 swinging strike percentage, is attacking hitters with a 67.2% strike rate, and has produced a 67.4 contact percentage, resulting in a 1.81 SIERA. If this represents a new level of his talent, more save chances could happen before the All-Star break. Huascar Brazobán (NYM): He's allowed one unearned run in his past 10 games, spanning 13.2 innings. In this timeframe, he has recorded 15 strikeouts against four walks (22 K-BB percentage), with a 0.584 WHIP. His change-up and cutter are producing swinging strike percentages over 17 for the season. Trevor Megill (MIL): Megill has posted a 1.24 WHIP with 17 strikeouts over 15.1 innings. When viewing his underlying data at Fangraphs, there are no discernible differences in his contact rates allowed or swinging strike percentage. However, when one notes that his 2.35 ERA has a 3.77 SIERA and a 5.73 xERA, there may be reasons for concern. Since xERA accounts for the quality of contact, noting his good contact rate allowed at 30 percent this year, compared to 15 percent poor contact, combined with his 13.8 K-BB percentage, should cause some concern. His four-seam fastball currently has a .348 xBA and a .462 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). His contact struggles will persist if he falls behind in counts and is forced to throw pitches in the strike zone. *Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. Statistical Credits (through games played on May 21): and Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates. (Photo of Luke Jackson: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)
New York Times
16-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Cubs bullpen power rankings: Which Chicago relievers are the most reliable?
The dynamics of a bullpen can shift quickly. A trusted reliever can suddenly look shaky after just a handful of so-so outings and vice versa. The Chicago Cubs bullpen's ERA ranks 22nd in baseball, at 4.59. But if one were to look only at the current eight relievers, that number drops to 3.67. Not elite, but certainly significantly better. Advertisement Like nearly every playoff team, the Cubs will need to supplement their bullpen in some way come July. What type of reliever and how much they have to pay are the questions. But for now, they'll likely have to make do with who they have in the organization. Here's a power ranking of the Cubs' bullpen group as presently constructed. Like relievers themselves, this list is volatile and could shift from day to day. But heading into play Friday, here's a subjective look at the current trustworthiness of each reliever in the Cubs bullpen. He strikes guys out, doesn't walk them, puts the ball on the ground and can hit triple digits with his fastball — which happens to be the most valuable pitch, by Statcast's Run Value, of any offering in the Cubs bullpen. What's not to like? Manager Craig Counsell seems to trust him in almost any situation. That versatility is probably why he isn't closing games but rather being used whenever and wherever Counsell needs. On April 6, Thielbar's ERA was above 6.00 and he had a 26.3 percent walk rate. Since then, the lefty has been nails. Over his last 14 1/3 innings, he has a 1.80 ERA, 28.2 percent strikeout rate and 5.1 percent walk rate. Over that span, he has faced the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants twice each, the latter three on back-to-back days. 'Shortened up arm action just a touch, and that's kind of what makes it click,' Thielbar said of his turnaround. 'It was just a matter of getting into the rhythm of the season, too.' Thielbar could see the arm-action issue from side angles while watching video. It's something he has learned will happen, and he knows he just needs to get out there and get it right. The fastball gets more ride and the curve more bite once his delivery is right. It has earned him a ton of trust from Counsell, who continues to put him in difficult situations that he manages to handle with aplomb. Advertisement The next three on this list are all close, but Pomeranz gets the edge because he has been brilliant in 8 2/3 innings. He has struck out 29 percent of the batters he has faced and walked just 6.5 percent while allowing zero runs. At 93 mph, his average fastball velocity is down a tick from his peak but still gets good stuff grades, and he pairs it nicely with a knuckle curve that he has yet to yield a hit with. Remember when the Cubs had big questions with their left-handed pitching? Right now, trading for Pomeranz is looking like another smooth move by Jed Hoyer and company. Health feels like the key here with Pomeranz. Palencia has finally earned some trust after years of showing off tantalizing stuff. He's still walking too many (12.2 percent), but that's down from the previous season, and the strikeouts are starting to pile up (26.5 percent) as he's limiting runs. He's averaging 98.9 mph with his four-seamer, locating it up in the zone brilliantly and allowing an .097 batting average against on the offering. Wednesday's outing was encouraging. Despite allowing a walk and a hit, Hodge struck out two batters in a scoreless inning. He had gone four outings without striking out a batter, and the last time he'd struck out multiple batters in an appearance was April 13. If he stacks up a few more outings like this, he'll quickly rise up this list. In seven innings of work, he has allowed one run. Flexen is hardly flashy, but he fills his role nicely: Eat innings, save the bullpen and throw strikes. Pressly's disaster outing last week against the Giants felt like it was inevitable. He just wasn't missing bats, and it was becoming a concern. But in his next two outings (1 1/3 innings), he struck out two and walked one. Nothing brilliant, but he needs small steps forward to earn back those high-leverage moments. Advertisement 'There's been some good progress with Press over the last few weeks,' assistant pitching coach Casey Jacobson said. 'We've had some pretty productive meetings. Some of it is traditional deception and making sure we're using stuff the right way. And some of it was delivery stuff we felt could help him recapture some of his best version and keep the hitter guessing.' If Pressly starts missing bats again, it'll be encouraging. The Cubs need a trusted veteran reliever like him to step up; otherwise, it ramps up the urgency of finding someone at the trade deadline who has done it before. After allowing multiple runs in three of his last four outings, it is officially time to be concerned with Merryweather. His average fastball velocity is down two ticks to 96 mph from his peak in 2023. Merryweather has dealt with a multitude of injuries over his career and missed significant time last season, including a stint late in the season with a right knee issue. Though Jacobson wouldn't say if he's hurting now, he did say, 'There's aches and pains throughout the course of the season that guys are dealing with.' In his last outing, Merryweather's fastball velocity was down to 94.2 mph, his lowest of the season. 'The delivery is going to impact a lot of the output stuff,' Jacobson said. 'Whether he's feeling really good on a day or maybe doesn't, that's going to adjust some of the delivery things, what he feels he can get to as far as the lower-half output.' The Cubs know what Merryweather's best version looks like and are working to get him back there. Much more of this, though, and they'll have to consider putting him on the injured list if he's not healthy or make tough decisions, especially with Gavin Hollowell looking solid in his brief outings. (Top photo of Brad Keller: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
New York Times
15-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball bullpen report featuring slumping closers Jeff Hoffman, Raisel Iglesias
After each week passes, more changes present themselves across the high-leverage ecosystem. Texas had two relievers suffer an injury in consecutive days, though it's being reported neither is serious — fantasy managers make preparations in case the news cycle shifts. Last week's closer concern from the National League (Ryan Pressly) has been working in lower-leverage outings but has not regained his lost closer title. Advertisement Relievers in Miami, Pittsburgh and Arizona have been repositioned in my leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels: Mostly linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it's usually a predictable leverage pathway. Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in matchup-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season. Matchup-based: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes, based on handedness, rest or recent usage patterns to keep them fresh. While these situations typically rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can also become involved. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, which creates fluid save opportunities. In-flux: The manager has not confirmed the projected closer based on past struggles or rough spring appearances. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. Yariel Rodríguez (TOR): He owns a four-game scoreless streak, with holds in three. He recorded 10 strikeouts (52.6% K-BB) over his 5.2 innings with a minuscule 0.351 WHIP. Mason Montgomery (TB): He posted his first career save and has three holds in his past 5.2 innings, with seven strikeouts against two walks (25% K-BB), a 0.71 WHIP, and a 15.7 SwStr%. Advertisement Jeff Hoffman (TOR): After a tremendous start to the season, results have gone sideways for the closer. It's been a tale of two splits for him: Including his recent meltdowns, he has recorded 19.1 innings this season with a 6.05 ERA but a 1.62 SIERA and a 2.04 xERA. His .357 BABIP sits 79 points above last year. His underlying metrics remain stable compared to the previous two seasons: His contract and pedigree should ensure his role, but migrating his upcoming results toward his SIERA and xERA needs to occur. Focus on his results with the split finger and slider. Jordan Romano (PHI): He's converted saves in consecutive appearances and three of his past six (all scoreless efforts), while recording a 0.50 WHIP with eight strikeouts (38.1 K-BB%) across six innings. After undergoing a rough patch earlier this season, he has found a rhythm with his new team and has earned a larger save share. Jesús Tinoco (MIA): After missing time on the injured list in April, he's wrested away the primary save share with the Marlins, converting two of his past three chances and four saves total this season. There will be bumps in the road and some lean weeks, but if he's emerging as the closer under Clayton McCullough, there's value in mixed leagues of 12 teams or more. Raisel Iglesias (ATL): Contact, specifically quality of contact, has not been his friend this season. Through his first 17 appearances, he owns a 6.05 ERA with a 2.93 SIERA and a 5.72 xERA. This represents a broad band of potential outcomes in his underlying data. Because xERA factors in type of contact, it's crucial for fantasy managers to take a look under the hood, beginning with his rolling expected wOBA chart: He's allowed 49 batted ball events this season, with a 28.6 LD% — more than nine percentage points higher than last season. Of more significant concern, he's given up eight barrels, causing a disparity between the types of contact produced: Last year, he finished with 14.3% poor contact induced, while allowing 7.4% good contact. He's already given up six home runs (four on his slider) and allowed multiple hits in five of his past eight appearances. Fantasy managers hope his ERA trends toward his SIERA, not his xERA, but the contact allowed must improve. Advertisement Emilio Pagán (CIN): He's allowed at least a run in three of his past four appearances and four of his past seven. This may finish his regression toward the mean since his SIERA (3.32) and his xERA (3.64) both reside below his actual ERA (4.05). There have been gaps of inconsistency throughout his career, which makes trusting him difficult. However, he's been solid this year, and his rolling graph provides hope, but results must follow for him to remain in the ninth inning for the Reds: *Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. Statistical Credits (through games played on May 14): and Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates. (Photo of Jeff Hoffman: Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)
New York Times
08-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball bullpen report features concerns for Ryan Pressly and Carlos Estévez
Since my last post, many bullpen situations have stabilized, providing fantasy managers with clarity. However, multiple rough outings — in part due to fatigue after the first month — has put some relievers on watch and we've seen some changes in the high-leverage ecosystem. With this in mind, it's time to reset our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels: Mostly linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it's usually a predictable leverage pathway. Advertisement Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in matchup-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season. Matchup-based: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes, based on handedness, rest or recent usage patterns to keep them fresh. While these situations typically rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can also become involved. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, which creates fluid save opportunities. In-flux: The manager has not confirmed the projected closer based on past struggles or rough spring appearances. Steven Cruz (KC): After lookin at the Yankees' Fernando Cruz last week, this week brings a different Cruz to our highlight segment. Since April 24, Steven Cruz has converted three holds while posting five scoreless appearances across 5.1 innings. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but he pounds the strike zone (66.7 strike percentage) and has produced a 52.2 percent ground-ball rate. His 0.78 WHIP accompanies a 2.21 xERA — he's not allowed a barrel, with only a 34.8 hard-hit percentage allowed. His role as a set-up reliever remains in flux as the team awaits the return of Hunter Harvey, but he's a stream option in SOLDS formats. Liam Hendriks (BOS): He has not recorded a save since June 6, 2023, and is still searching for slightly more velocity, but he's posted two scoreless outings in May with two strikeouts, zero walks and one hit allowed. He may be earning a larger leverage role soon. He could garner ancillary save chances when Aroldis Chapman is needed against tough left-handed hitting pockets in the eighth inning. Advertisement Carlos Estévez (KC): Understanding he has recorded a win, converted 11 of 13 save chances and does not have a loss, the under-the-surface statistics are causing some concern. His 2.65 ERA has a 3.47 xERA and 4.45 SIERA, suggesting some regression will be in the offing. He's also posted a 12.2 walk percentage, causing a decline in his K-BB percentage by 9.8 points compared to last year. He's allowing more contact (up 8.7 percent) and more contact in the strike zone (9.1 percent more than in 2024). Estévez has thrown three pitch types this year, all producing a swinging strike rate below 10 percent — last year, he recorded at least an 11.6 percent swinging rate with each. If his current .250 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) migrates toward his career .306 rate, his ratio statistics may be affected. Monitor his upcoming outings closely. Daniel Palencia (CHC): While most of the focus will be on his teammate in the section below, Palencia hasn't been scored upon in his past six appearances, with six strikeouts against two walks (19.1 K-BB percentage) and a 0.50 WHIP. Again, this is more of a SOLDS recommendation, but he should earn a larger leverage role if the relievers ahead of him continue struggling. Nick Mears (MIL): He owns an eight-game streak without an earned run allowed and has recorded a hold in his past two appearances. He's also been the team's 'fireman,' stranding 10 of his 14 inherited runners in this stretch, with six strikeouts against one walk and a 0.649 WHIP over 7.2 innings. Camilo Doval (SF): He's amid a 13-game streak without allowing an earned run, during which he's posted a 0.33 WHIP with 11 strikeouts versus three walks (20 K-BB%) through 12.1 innings. He remains an ancillary save target but is still on the outside looking in for the closer role on his team. Advertisement Tracking: Luis Mey (CIN) Ryan Pressly (CHC): His last appearance was historically bad. He finished with nine runs (eight earned) allowed, including five hits, a hit batter, and a walk without recording an out. His WHIP ballooned to 1.92. On the season, he's only recorded five strikeouts against eight walks (-4.8 K-BB%) through 13 innings. Manager Craig Counsell cited his closer had allowed one unearned run over his previous 10 appearances. Instead of focusing on this latest outing, the lack of whiffs must be addressed. Let's expand the sample size to include his last statistical year (365 days), 2024, and his career rates: His rolling game chart displays this clearly, along with his second-half struggles last season: There doesn't appear to be a quick fix or easy answer for Pressly, especially when considering his splits by pitch: If possible, stash Porter Hodge if Pressly's swinging strike percentage does not improve and his fifth-worst hard-hit percentage (56.3 percent) remains. Counsell can be stubborn, as his faith in Héctor Neris last season proved, but from a fantasy lens, the current Cubs closer sits on the hot seat. Guts and guile only get a reliever so far throughout a season, but a team with championship aspirations cannot sit idly by. *Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. Statistical Credits (through games played on May 7): Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates. (Photo of Ryan Pressly: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
