2 days ago
India leads in remittances - but Trump's tax could deal a blow
A study by Center for Global Development, a Washington-based think tank, suggests the proposed tax could sharply cut formal transfers, with Mexico facing the biggest hit - over $2.6bn annually. Other major losers include India, China, Vietnam and several Latin American nations like Guatemala, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador.
To be sure, there's still some confusion surrounding the tax, and final approval is pending Senate action and the President's signature.
"The tax applies to all non-citizens and even embassy and UN/World Bank staff. But those who pay taxes can claim a tax credit. Thus, the remittance tax would apply only to those migrants who do not pay taxes. That would mostly include unauthorised migrants (and diplomats)," Dilip Ratha, the World Bank lead economist for migration and remittances, told the BBC.
Dr Ratha wrote in a note on LinkedIn that migrants would try to cut remittance costs by turning to informal methods - hand-carrying cash, sending money through friends, couriers, bus drivers or airline staff, arranging local currency payouts via friends in the US, or using hawala, hundi and cryptocurrencies.
"Will the proposed tax deter unauthorised immigration to the US? Will it encourage unauthorised migrants to return home?" wonders Dr Ratha.
Not quite, he says. A minimum wage job in the US earns over $24,000 a year - roughly four to 30 times more than in many developing countries. Migrants typically send home between $1,800 and $48,000 annually, estimates Dr Ratha.
"A 3.5% tax is unlikely to deter these remittances. After all the main motivation for migration - migrants trying to cross oceans and rivers and mountains - is to send money home to help helpless family members."
