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Bloomberg
26-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Chinese Steel Exports to Drop as Barriers Mount, Says Goldman
The blowout in Chinese steel exports has likely peaked, as trade barriers mount and domestic production falls, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Exports climbed last year to a nine-year high of 111 million tons, but are forecast to moderate by 3% in 2025 before dropping more sharply by a third in 2026, the bank said in a note on Friday. The biggest headwind to sales is the substantial number of ongoing anti-dumping investigations around the world, the bank said.
Asharq Al-Awsat
09-05-2025
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
China's First Four-Month Steel Exports at Record High Despite Tariff Turmoil
China's steel exports in April topped 10 million metric tons for a second straight month bringing the total in the first four months to a record high, underpinned by front-loaded shipments ahead of US President Donald Trump's hefty tariffs. The world's largest steel producer and exporter shipped 10.46 million tons of steel last month, customs data showed on Friday. While largely unchanged from March, exports were 13.5% higher than the same month in 2024. Exports from January to April jumped by 8.2% from the year before to an all-time high for the period of 37.89 million tons. "Steel exports in April are a bit higher than our expectation, albeit maintaining positive annual growth, supported by sustained front-loading orders observed," said Jiang Mengtian, a Shanghai-based analyst at consultancy Horizon Insights. Jiang forecast May shipments to slow as tariff and widening trade protectionism started to bite. Washington's tariffs threaten the transshipment trade, where third countries resell Chinese steel to the US, while China's top steel customers like South Korea and Vietnam have also imposed duties to avoid steel being rerouted and dumped in their markets. Second-quarter exports are set to fall by as much as a fifth from the first quarter as a result, eight analysts and traders told Reuters earlier this week. China's April iron ore imports climbed by 9.8% from March to the highest since December, as improved margins encouraged mills to book more seaborne cargoes. The world's largest iron ore consumer brought in 103.14 million tons of the key steelmaking ingredient last month, up from a 20-month low of 93.97 million tons in March. The volume last month, which was largely in line with analysts' expectations, was also 1.3% higher than 101.82 million tons in April 2024. "Since March imports missed expectations, it's not surprising to see higher iron ore imports in April, which could also be reflected in higher hot metal output last month and a pile-up in inventory in the last two weeks of April," said Pei Hao, an analyst at international brokerage Freight Investor Services (FIS). In the first four months of this year, China's iron ore imports slid 5.5% from the year earlier to 388.36 million tons, the data showed.
Reuters
08-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Trade war set to slash China's steel exports, aggravating oversupply at home
BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - China's steel exports are set to slump in the second quarter, threatening to exacerbate a supply glut at home, analysts and traders said, as the trade war and a wave of protectionism moving in its wake crimps export markets. Second-quarter shipments from the world's largest steel producer and exporter are forecast to fall by up to a fifth from the first quarter, said eight analysts and traders, who also expect exports to worsen further later in the year. That would also leave second quarter shipments lower than in the same period in 2024. Steel exports have been hit by a double blow as Washington's tariffs choke off the transshipment trade, where third countries resell Chinese steel to the U.S., and top customers like South Korea and Vietnam impose their own duties to avoid steel then being rerouted and dumped in their markets. "It's certain that total exports will slide in Q2," said a Chinese steel trader on condition of anonymity as they are not authorised to speak to media. "One can look at Middle East, Africa and South America as alternative outlets but the problem is no country can absorb such a huge capacity." China's rising steel exports have helped partly offset weak demand from the battered property sector and any decline will redirect steel back home, depressing prices, eroding steelmaker profitability and denting their appetite for inputs like iron ore. First-quarter exports hit the highest level since 2016 as mills rushed to get steel out of the country before the then-rumoured tariffs were announced. While the steel industry has long expected near-record exports to ultimately trigger some backlash, the magnitude of protectionism unleashed by the trade war between Washington and Beijing has surprised many. The Chairman of China's largest listed steelmaker, Baosteel ( opens new tab, said late last month the sector's exports faced "unprecedented" pressure and more steel left at home would intensify oversupply. Overseas orders for a large Chinese exporter fell between 20% and 30% last month versus the month before, according to an April survey compiled by consultancy Mysteel. There are also concerns the trade war could spillover into products heavily reliant on steel, like electric vehicles or home appliances, weakening the other major source of steel demand outside the property sector, said Ge Xin, deputy director at consultancy Lange Steel. "It takes time for that impact to permeate through into the upstream steel market, likely reflected in data in the second quarter when home demand seasonally slowed, aggravating the supply glut situation." ($1 = 7.2251 Chinese yuan)
