Latest news with #tropicalcyclone
Forbes
4 days ago
- Climate
- Forbes
Hurricane Season 2025: Stronger Storms, Bigger Risks And Smarter Prep
IN SPACE - OCTOBER 8: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party ... More organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy.) In this NASA handout, Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm at the time of this photograph, is pictured in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula on October 8, 2024 seen from the International Space Station as it orbited 257 miles above. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images) Hurricanes are tropical cyclones that have maximum sustained winds of 74mph or higher. The Atlantic hurricane season affecting the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and and Gulf of Mexico spans the period June 1st to November 30th. The 2025 hurricane season is underway and will last 183 days, and all signs point to an intense and active period driven by record warm Atlantic Ocean Temperature and the transition to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions, which together set the stage for a hyperactive season. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, with forecasts predicting 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher with winds above 111 mph. The NOAA has been using advanced weather models coupled with cutting edge tracking systems to have a 70% confidence in their forecasted ranges. KINGSTON, JAMAICA - JULY 03: Palm trees sway as the wind and rain from Hurricane Beryl pass through ... More on July 03, 2024, in Kingston, Jamaica. Beryl has caused widespread damage in several island nations as it continues to cross the Caribbean. (Photo by) The science is clear, hurricanes are becoming stronger, and slower because of climate change. According to a BBC report, while wind speeds inside hurricanes are increasing, their overall forward movement across land and ocean is becoming slower. A 2018 study by researcher James Kossin revealed that hurricanes near the United States have decelerated by approximately 17% since the early 1900s, with tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific slowing by up to 20%. His research also indicate that the odds of a tropical cyclone reaching Category 3 strength or higher have risen by 8% per decade since the late 1970s. Moreover the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlight that rising ocean temperatures which is a direct result of global warming provide more fuel for hurricanes, intensifying their wind speeds and rainfall. In addition to this, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to increasingly devastating flooding events. SPRING, TEXAS - JULY 8: The damage at a home in the 17400 block of Rustic Canyon Trail is shown ... More where Maria Loredo, 74, died after a tree fell on her second story bedroom during Hurricane Beryl Monday, July 8, 2024, in Houston. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images) Hrricanes are intensifying and being proactive about storm preparation is critical, especially because 90% of hurricane-related deaths are caused by storm surges. These large, rapid rise in sea level driven by a hurricane's low-pressure center, and can flood coastal areas with water levels ranging from about 3 feet during a Category 1 hurricane, to over 19 feet in a Category 5 event. Here are some key steps that can be taken: Technology can be used to improve hurricane preparation. As hurricanes become stronger and more unpredictable, technology has emerged as a powerful tool for boosting home resilience and personal safety. Innovative devices are constantly being developed and optimized to offer resilience during and continuity after hurricanes. These are among the most valuable innovations for hurricane prep: When a hurricane strikes, last-minute scrambling can be dangerous and time consuming. Based on firsthand experience and expert recommendations, assembling a comprehensive emergency kit well in advance is non-negotiable. As a result, here are the ten essentials every household should have ready before the first storm warning. The 2025 hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the most active on record, driven by forces we can no longer ignore. As hurricanes grow stronger and more unpredictable, preparation is no longer optional. Investing in resilience from technology to emergency kits ensures you stay ready for whatever the 2025 season brings.
Zawya
23-05-2025
- Climate
- Zawya
Tropical Cyclone likely in Arabian Sea, no impact on Oman: CAA
Muscat – According to meteorologists, the Arabian Sea has over a moderate to high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Oman is expected to remain safe from same. Storm brewing in the Arabian Sea The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has raised the alert in its latest tropical weather bulletin, citing growing evidence of organised cloud systems and convective activity over the central Arabian Sea. Forecast models suggest that a tropical cyclone could form within the next 48 hours, particularly between May 21 and 24. Although the system appears to be intensifying, it is not expected to directly impact Oman during the current forecast period, which runs from May 22 to 26. Clouds gathering over the mountains Aside from tropical developments, the CAA has also flagged ongoing cumulus cloud build-up over the Hajar Mountains. Residents in these areas may experience scattered afternoon showers and occasional thunderstorms, as is common during this time of year. Stay Informed, Stay Safe As part of its annual monitoring of cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea, the CAA will issue weekly bulletins throughout the season. However, officials stress that emergency updates can be released any day should the situation change rapidly. 'While the risk of cyclone formation is real, there is currently no cause for concern in Oman,' said a CAA spokesperson. 'We urge everyone to follow official updates and avoid spreading unverified information.' With cyclone season entering an active phase, the public is advised to keep an eye on official weather channels and avoid relying on speculation. © Apex Press and Publishing Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
An in-depth look at the 2025 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
HONOLULU (KHON2) — Forecasters with NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center announced a 30% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming Central Pacific Hurricane Season. Officials added that the outlook indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 20% chance that it will be above-normal. What does Hawaii's 2025 hurricane season look like? In terms of storm numbers, the forecast calls for 1 to 4 tropical cyclones across the Central Pacific, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has four or five tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the centralPacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affectHawaii. The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30. 'Even though this season is predicted to be less active, now is the time for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season,' said Chris Brenchley, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center uses satellites, land and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions, all operated by NOAA and its partners, to monitortropical cyclone activity. Download the free KHON2 app for iOS or Android to stay informed on the latest news These observations are then fed into a variety of NOAA computer models that run on state-of-the-art supercomputers. This information is then used by forecasters to develop storm track and intensity forecasts and provide impact-based decision support services to emergency managers at the county, state and federal levels. Forecast and communication improvements this season: NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center are extending forecasts a day longer on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours. New this year, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center will be able to issue potential tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Storm surge is the water pushed onto shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane. Beginning this year, the National Weather Service will provide storm surge flooding forecasts for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauai County, Oahu, Maui County, and Hawaii County) so that county emergency managers can better warn coastal residents and businesses. NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service will offer a new tool that uses satellite observations to help better predict tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. The tool is now available for both the Atlantic and Central Pacific basins. Hawaii is a NWS StormReady state, one of only eight states in the nation. Participation in the StormReady program helps to make communities ready, responsive and resilient to weather hazards when they strike. Each county, community and government in Hawaii — from the Big Island to Kauai — has worked to enhance their readiness for the multitude of hazardous weather that can strike the state. Check out more news from around Hawaii For more information, visit NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center: National Hurricane Center. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Watching tropical development hot spots ahead of hurricane season's official start in Eastern Pacific
As the official start of the hurricane season approaches in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins, meteorologists are closely monitoring typical tropical hot spots, but, so far, there are few signs of any early-season storm development to worry about. According to the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is currently no indication of any tropical cyclone formation in the basins through the next week - and possibly through the entire month of May. There have, however, been a few blips in some forecast models indicating some potentially favorable conditions for storm development in the eastern Pacific Ocean, but chances of anything greater than a tropical depression are considered to be extremely low over the next week. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has noted some of the models hinting at these long-range developments but "there is not enough confidence to warrant any (tropical cyclone) areas at this time." May and June typically mark the beginning of tropical cyclone development along the Central American and North American coastlines, where water temperatures are warmer and there is more available moisture. This early-season activity usually originates along frontal boundaries or a weather feature known as the Central American Gyre, which can create low-pressure systems under favorable atmospheric conditions. The absence of preseason activity is not unusual and follows last year's exceptionally slow start for tropical cyclone development across all basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Despite the delayed onset in 2024, most basins still generated enough tropical cyclone activity to be considered above-average seasons. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Guide: Here's What To Know About The Tropics This Year Nearly all major computer models show inactivity lasting for several weeks, but there is one notable outlier - the Global Forecast System, otherwise known as the American GFS. For around a week, the GFS has generated erroneous forecasts suggesting that a significant hurricane would develop and impact Jamaica, Haiti and other Caribbean Islands. "Unsurprisingly, the signal the U.S. GFS model was giving off (Wednesday) that an organized tropical system might lift north out of a broad low-pressure area in the extreme southern Caribbean is not present in (Thursday)'s model run. No other models, including the most modern AI forecasts, indicate that type of development. The broad Central American low-pressure system will bring persistent rain to that region, but high pressure across the northern Caribbean should block any movement north. No computer forecast models are skillful at predicting the genesis of new tropical systems in the long range. Before we pay attention, we look for multi-model consensus and a persistent forecast over time," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said Thursday in regards to the lack of tropical cyclone development. According to the FOX Forecast Center, early-season runs of the GFS are often unreliable and are marred by errors stemming from atmospheric dynamics. Unfortunately, these erroneous runs are often seized upon by social media users to suggest that a massive hurricane threat is on the horizon, when one doesn't actually exist. Meteorologists typically seek consensus among multiple model solutions - such as the ECMWF, Canadian and other reputable forecasting models - before seriously considering the threat of tropical development. Early-season tropical disturbances usually need more than just favorable conditions for development — and those factors simply don't exist right now or in the near future. Here's A First Look At How Busy Hurricane Activity Could Be In The Eastern Pacific When the first named storm does eventually form in the eastern Pacific, it will be named Alvin, and in the Atlantic, the first system to earn a name will be Andrea. Historically, the first named storm in the eastern Pacific forms around June 10, while the Atlantic's first named system tends to develop closer to June 20. Missing those dates does not necessarily signal a slow season overall, but it does reduce the window of opportunity for storms to develop. One important benchmark meteorologists will be watching this year is whether either basin comes close to its latest-ever date for its first cyclone. In the eastern Pacific, the record latest date for formation is Aug. 23, while in the Atlantic, it is Sept. 15. If activity doesn't percolate until those dates or later, it has always been an indicator of a notably quiet season. While the tropics around the world may be quiet for the time being, conditions can change rapidly, especially with water temperatures warming in key formation article source: Watching tropical development hot spots ahead of hurricane season's official start in Eastern Pacific
