14 hours ago
Why Hollywood Is Training for Jobs That Don't Yet Exist
Last week's column on the rise of vertical dramas prompted a heartfelt text from a friend who's worked in film and TV sound for two decades.
'Blerrgh. Time to reskill, methinks,' he wrote. 'This article made me really see the writing in the sky once and for all.'
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I reminded him not to shoot the messenger. Truthfully, I left my conversation with Yun Xie feeling curious, even excited, about what might come next for the format. These may never evolve into masterpieces of storytelling (a tall order when a script must deliver an emotional cliffhanger every 90 seconds), but the business around them is growing. And with that growth comes the potential for new companies, new markets, and new opportunities, even if we can't see them clearly yet.
And that's the real problem: We can't see. The last five years have been an Arrakis-level sandstorm — Covid, strikes, AI, the slow collapse of legacy film and TV. It's exhausting to keep moving forward without a clear view of the path ahead.
We can take some comfort in the fact that even futurists are fumbling.
Last week, I attended both CAA's Amplify conference and Runway's AI Film Festival. They cater to different audiences, but their underlying messages were the same: The future is coming, we think it's exciting, but still can't say exactly what that looks like.
'We are now training for jobs that do not yet exist,' said Bruce Markoe, IMAX's head of post and image capture, speaking at the AI Film Festival in Santa Monica on June 12.
In a casual press chat before 10 shorts screened at The Broad Stage, he and Runway founder Cristóbal Valenzuela both admitted they didn't know what's next. However, they argued that history suggests we should remain optimistic.
'People were freaking out when talkies were around,' Markoe said. 'The argument was people are going to lose their jobs and the reality said yes, there were jobs that changed and… there [are] jobs that need to change. We assume that efficiency means lower of everything and… it's actually the opposite. There are going to be new industries. The thing is it's really hard to understand those industries. We have never experienced them before. Trying to understand visual effects in the 1920s was unthinkable until we got there.'
Valenzuela said he believed that 'there's going to be all kinds of new positions that need to be created to work with AI tools that are not existing today. Is it equal? I can't tell you that. I dunno. But there's definitely a shift that's going to happen.'
Kind of?
The shorts were fine. Aesthetics have improved since last year. So has interest: Valenzuela said they received over 6,000 submissions, compared to a few hundred in 2023.
Still, the tech has a way to go. Basic elements of cinematic language, like character consistency, often fall short. Many films felt like conceptual collages seeking the right tools to bring their visions to life.
One highlight was Riccardo Fusetti's 'Editorial,' which visualizes the thoughts racing through a young woman's mind before she answers a question. The concept was sharp, although the chaotic imagery and uncanny valley left it feeling more like a promising rough draft.
A similar mood emerged at CAA's Amplify conference at Montage Laguna Beach on June 10.
Speaking with CAA agent Alex Mebed, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman traced a familiar pattern: From the printing press to podcasts to generative AI, new tech lowers the barrier to entry and opens the door to more creators.
And with that comes aggressive competition, major disruption, and redistribution of jobs, power, and income.
'We've got to be open about that,' Suleyman said.
At this point, everyone is open about that. The question is, how much longer do we have to wait?
Maybe that impatience is misplaced. Even as vertical dramas and AI have their days, A24's old-fashioned 'Materialists' — Celine Song's original IP, a rom-com, shot on 35mm for pete's sake — opened this weekend to $12 million.
That success is every bit as real as, say, the latest round of studio layoffs. In its analysis last weekend, the L.A. Times reflected on last year's mantra, 'Survive until '25,' and suggested that it's morphed into something bleaker:
'Exist until '26.'
Solid advice, but maybe it's time to retire the aphorisms. Rhymes aren't making the future arrive any faster.
See you next week,
Dana
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