23-05-2025
Saturated state due rain relief but more weather carnage is on the way: 'Not normal'
Much of New South Wales has been lashed by heavy rain and flooding this week, with the deadly weather event claiming four lives as some areas were hit by 500mm of rain in a few days.
It's the kind of rainfall more typical of a summer tropical cyclone than mid-autumn. And while skies are slowly clearing over parts of northern NSW, the system is far from finished, with Victoria and Tasmania now in the firing line, and another hazardous weather event looming next week.
Speaking to Yahoo News Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology's Senior Meteorologist Angus Hines said the rain band will move south of NSW from tonight, before likely dissipating over the weekend. A sunny weekend is forecast for Sydney.
"The worst-hit areas of the Mid North Coast and northern parts of the Hunter have now seen the rain shift away," Hines told Yahoo on Friday morning. "But the rain band is still sliding southwards through NSW, so we're still seeing decent falls through the Illawarra, South Coast, Snowy Mountains and even parts of the Western slopes and plains."
Sydney and the Blue Mountains also copped a deluge, with western and northern Sydney receiving more than 100mm overnight into Friday morning. The current system is expected to ease across NSW late Friday into the early hours of Saturday as it moves through eastern Victoria and then into Tasmania, before clearing the country altogether by Saturday afternoon.
Social media has this week been lit up with confusion — and a fair bit of despair — over the relentless hammering from the rain. One British expat Sophie Williams summed up the general mood in a post asking, "It has been raining for years now, when will it stop?"
Her comment quickly struck a chord, sparking a flood of replies from NSW locals tired of being cooped up indoors. So, is the sun finally about to make a long-awaited return?
"Yeah," Hines confirmed. "We get a couple of sunnier, brighter days through the weekend, so we can start to get into that clean-up and recovery for those areas which have been subject to major flooding over the week so far." But he warned Australians not to get too comfortable.
"There's another big system waiting in the wings," he warned. "A powerful cold front is expected to sweep across the country from Sunday night to Tuesday night, affecting not just NSW but also South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT."
While this next event will bring colder air, typical for late May, the bigger threat will be strong winds.
"The main watch area in NSW is because the ground is already saturated," Hines explained. "When you get really windy conditions over saturated soil, that's when you start pulling up trees, blowing down branches, and getting that classic wind damage."
He said this weather pattern is "more typical" for this time of year, compared to the extreme rainfall earlier this week, which was anything but ordinary.
"Having that rain stuck in place over one area for four days in a row… that's not a normal amount of rainfall," Hines said. "Some weather stations saw over half a metre of rain. We're still in the middle of a major flood event, and the rivers' response has shown how dramatic this has been."
A fourth person has been confirmed dead as devastating floods continue to wreak havoc across NSW's Mid North Coast and Hunter regions. The body of a man, believed to be in his 70s, was discovered early Friday morning inside a car that had veered off Orara Way in Nana Glen, about 30km northwest of Coffs Harbour.
The vehicle was spotted by a passing motorist around 4.30am. Formal identification is yet to take place.
Nearly 50,000 people have been isolated by the flood crisis, which has now claimed four lives. Heavy rain continues to pound the region, with the weather system moving south towards Newcastle and Gosford throughout Friday.
The Mid North Coast received over 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours, with Sydney and its surrounds bracing for another 50 to 100mm on Friday. Sydney Olympic Park recorded 118mm in the 24 hours to 9am Friday, while Belrose saw 108mm and Parramatta 104mm.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the scenes "pretty horrific" and confirmed he would visit the hard-hit town of Taree on Friday to witness the damage firsthand and thank SES crews. He also announced government support payments would be available via MyGov from Monday afternoon.
And it's not just the east copping a shake-up — the west coast is also in for a surprise.
"Earlier this week, it had been mostly fine, clear and sunny across the north and west," Hines said. "But we are now anticipating an unseasonable band of rain to form in the northwest, probably on Monday."
This system could bring rain to much of northern WA, the Northern Territory, and even inland Queensland and South Australia by mid-next week — unusual for the dry season.
"So we're watching that closely — it's out-of-season rain, cloudy skies and colder temps in places that are normally dry at this time of year."
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