13-03-2025
Analysts updated target price for Šiaulių Bankas
Following the publication of Šiaulių Bankas' Q4 2024 and full-year results, Swedbank's independent equity analyst Andrej Radionov raised the target price to EUR 1.2 per share and reiterated a buy recommendation. Separately, sponsored equity research analysts at Estonia's Enlight Research, raised fair value to EUR 1.11 per share, while analysts at Norne Securities, a Norwegian investment bank, maintained their valuation range at EUR 1.03 to EUR 1.28 per share.
Company
Analyst
Target price
Updated on
Swedbank
Andrej Rodionov
1.20 EUR
2025-03-03
Enlight Research
Mattias Wallander
1.11 EUR
2025-03-12
Norne Securities
Žilvinas Jusaitis
1.03–1.28 EUR
2025-02-21
Enlight Reaserch key takeaways:
2024 was epic for Šiaulių Bankas (soon to be renamed Artea Bankas) with the partial change of anchor stakeholders. Dividend policy payout doubled to minimum 50% from minimum 25%, which, at the time of announcement, almost doubled estimated dividend yield to net 6.4%. This also signified a return to Šiaulių Banks being a dividend stock.
Buyback program launched with goal to become more capital efficient and achieve a fair valuation of the share. In 2024, the yield from buybacks was 0.7% for a total yield (incl. dividends) of 8.1%. Management of the Bank has announced that the buy-back program could be resumed in May this year.
Šiaulių Bankas share has rallied 39% (excluding 8.1% dividend/buyback yield) since the completion of stock aquisition agreements on 31 May last year, widely outperforming the Baltic Benchmark Index 9% gain (including dividends). This might be the beginning of a long-term positive trend.
Valuation is still not demanding with a 2025E P/BV of 1.08x, corresponding to a 37% discount to Baltic peer LHV (1.72x). Given our forecast 2025 ROE of 13.7% (adjusted for extraordinary costs), a fair P/BV multiple for Šiaulių Bankas could be 1.25x, according to our DDM based model.
This implies a share price of EUR 1.11, indicating a 16% upside. Also worth noting is that bank multiples in other Eastern European markets are higher.
Norne Securities key takeaways:
The Bank has revised its guidance for the 2025–2029 period, signaling a more ambitious growth outlook. Loan book and deposit targets have been raised compared to previous projections, reflecting greater confidence in the bank's ability to expand its lending and funding base.
Fee and total operating income expectations have also been revised upward, indicating a stronger anticipated contribution from non-interest income streams. The implied NIM is projected to remain above 3% throughout the forecast period. The upgrades in financial targets are largely driven by better-than-expected 2024 results, which transmit in long-term targets.
On the cost side, the bank has introduced adjusted figures to reflect a strategic shift in expense recognition. IT-related costs will now be fully expensed rather than capitalized as long-term intangible assets. The bank's minimum payout policy remains unchanged at 50%.
Equity research by analysts is provided on Šiaulių Bankas Investor Relations website.
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Additional information:Tomas VarenbergasHead of Investment Management in to access your portfolio
