Latest news with #FoundationforDefenseofDemocracies
Politico
2 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Israel's boost to Iran nuclear talks
With help from Amy Mackinnon and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Israel's threats to strike Iran's nuclear facilities may actually be helping — not hurting — President DONALD TRUMP's efforts to secure a nuclear deal with Tehran, per analysts. Trump said Monday night he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and reiterated his commitment to talks with Iran. Their conversation, however, came as Israel has continued to threaten a potential military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Trump has ruled out Israeli military strikes, even in the face of pressure from prominent hawks, including conservative radio host MARK LEVIN. At first glance, pressure from Netanyahu and hawks backing a more militaristic solution to Iran's nuclear program would seemingly be forcing Trump to negotiate with both Israel and Iran at once. But MARK DUBOWITZ, chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, told NatSec Daily the continued threats from Israel to strike Iran allow Trump to credibly pressure Tehran and secure a better deal to restrain its nuclear ambitions. 'It's very useful for Trump to have a credible Israeli military threat so that he can be warning [Iranian Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI] 'unless you do a peaceful deal, Israelis are going to bomb,''' Dubowitz said. 'If anything, the argument from the isolationists to try to undermine that credible military threat is making a bad deal more likely. And if there is a bad deal, there's more likely to be an Israeli strike, and therefore more likely to be a war.' The assist may be needed. Iran this week has been trumpeting documents they heisted from Israel, purportedly revealing more details about Israel's undeclared nuclear weapons program. Ahead of talks later this week between U.S. and Iranian mediators, Iranian lawmakers are also accusing Israel and the United States of setting a 'strategic trap' for Iran by taking 'offensive positions' that would undermine 'Iranians' inalienable rights.' Dubowitz argued the efforts are 'counter-programming' ahead of an expected vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency later this week that would punish Iran for noncompliance with international standards. 'It's the worst-kept secret in the world that the Israelis have a nuclear weapons program,' Dubowitz said. MONA YACOUBIAN, who leads the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, called the Iranian announcement about the stolen Israeli documents 'a tactical move,' allowing Iran to reframe negotiations around a perceived discrepancy between the treatment of Israel and Iran by the international community over their nuclear programs, possibly allowing Tehran to get a more lax deal. While Israel's posture toward Iran could advance a nuclear deal, Yacoubian cautioned that the threats still speak to a fundamental tension between Israel and the United States. From Israel's perspective, she argues, there is 'a greater sense of urgency, that there is this limited window to go after Iran's nuclear infrastructure and that that window of opportunity is closing.' Meanwhile, Trump has shown he's determined to avoid 'forever wars' in the Middle East and negotiate deals to avoid conflict, even against Israeli objections. 'We saw the administration followed suit by essentially negotiating, unilaterally, a ceasefire with the Houthis that did not actually address the threat the Houthis posed to Israel. And that threat continues,' Yacoubian said. She added that Trump's emphasis on dealmaking is a reflection of the influence of the 'non-interventionist wing of the Republican Party' pushing back against 'decades of how the U.S. has engaged in the Middle East, whether in a Republican or Democrat administration.' The Inbox RUSSIA'S AIR ATTACKS: Russia launched another round of airstrikes, this time against Kyiv and the southern city of Odesa, our colleague Elena Giordano reports from Europe. 'For yet another night, instead of a ceasefire, there were massive strikes with Shahed drones, cruise and ballistic missiles,' said Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. 'In Odesa, even a maternity hospital became a Russian target. Thirteen people were injured. Tragically, there are fatalities.' The strikes underscore that Putin is not yet satisfied in his desire for revenge over a stealthy drone attack earlier this month that took out a large number of Russia's bomber jets and exposed serious vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses. And the fresh attack is likely to further stall talks initiated by the United States to end Russia's three-year invasion. So far, Russia and Ukraine have only made progress in settling disputes over the repatriation of prisoners of war and the remains of each other's soldiers. WHAT'S KEEPING TULSI UP AT NIGHT: Trump's Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD issued a stark warning about risks of a 'nuclear holocaust' in a short video posted on her personal account on X this morning, accusing the 'political elite and warmongers' of 'carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers.' In a three-minute clip superimposed with images of nuclear destruction, Gabbard reflected on a recent visit to Hiroshima, which was devastated by a U.S. atomic bomb at the end of World War II. 'A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes.' Gabbard did not specify who she was referencing as 'political elite and warmongers,' and her office did not respond to a request for comment on the video. MONITORING MUSK: The Department of Homeland Security and other government agencies surveilled foreign nationals who visited tech mogul ELON MUSK's homes in the United States in 2022 and 2023. As The Wall Street Journal's Dana Mattioli, Michelle Hackman, Josh Dawsey and Emily Glazer report, the probe focused on Eastern Europeans visiting Musk in the United States. The investigation didn't result in any charges and its current status is unclear, but it speaks to fears that predated the Trump administration that Musk was susceptible to potential foreign influence campaigns. Musk had regular contact with foreign officials, including Putin, as well as access to high-level U.S. government secrets as the chief executive of SpaceX and other government contractors. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel THE NEW ADMINISTRATION PUZDER AND HELBERG'S DAY: Two of Trump's most prominent foreign policy nominees faced members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today, but Democrats gave them both an unexpectedly soft questioning. JACOB HELBERG, nominated to be undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, faced some questions over his investments and his ability to fairly advance U.S. interests in a role so focused on economic and business diplomacy. Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) asked Helberg about his potential conflicts of interests — Helberg and his husband are heavily invested in the tech sector — and Helberg told senators he would outline an ethics plan to ensure he can execute his responsibilities. Former fast food executive ANDY PUZDER, nominated to be U.S. ambassador to the EU, got even less scrutiny from Democrats, in part due to the sheer number of nominees before the committee. That meant Democrats largely didn't confront Puzder about misconduct allegations against him. Only Ranking Member JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) addressed the issues that sank his bid to be Labor secretary in Trump's first term, calling the past statements and allegations against Puzder 'deeply concerning.' The other nominees before the committee were PAUL KAPUR, the nominee to be assistant secretary of State for South Asia; BENJAMIN BLACK, the nominee to lead the U.S. Finance Development Corporation; and HOWARD BRODIE, the nominee to be U.S. ambassador to Finland. They all got fairly light questions about conflict in Kashmir, the future of the FDC and the importance of countering Russia from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. The Complex RUSSIA'S SPACE WARFARE RISK: Rep. JEFF CRANK (R-Colo.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, warned today that Russia poses a serious threat to U.S. access to low-earth orbit essential for everything from surveillance satellites to global positioning systems. 'We're heavily reliant on space and on low Earth orbit — Russia sees that and they want to exploit that vulnerability [because] they aren't as reliant on space,' Crank said at a Hudson Institute event Tuesday. Russia's options include attacks on U.S. satellites or intentionally creating debris fields in low orbit that could hobble U.S. systems. 'What would happen to the United States if we were blinded — if our GPS was gone, not just to our lives as civilians, but what would happen to our military capability?' said Crank. Defense from such attacks requires the U.S. to view space as a military zone. 'America sat back and said 'Well, we can't weaponize space.' But while we sat back, other countries were weaponizing space,' said Crank. Crank is the latest Republican to highlight the prospect of Russia militarizing beyond Earth. Last year, then-House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER of Ohio caused a stir on Capitol Hill over intelligence findings that suggested Russia could develop a space weapon. On the Hill KAMLAGER-DOVE'S SUBCONTINENT THOUGHTS: India and Pakistan sent dueling delegations to Washington this week to discuss the future relationship between both countries and prospects for conflict — though it's unclear if either side really won hearts and minds. The Indian delegation, led by parliamentarian SHASHI THAROOR, who heads the Indian parliament's foreign affairs committee, focused on India's right to respond to a deadly terror attack in Kashmir in April that killed 26 tourists and the need for further cooperation with the United States on security. Meanwhile, Pakistan's delegation, led by former Foreign Minister BILAWAL BHUTTO ZARDARI, called attention to India's aggressive response, which included nixing the Indus Water Treaty governing water rights for the critical river. Pakistan also emphasized areas for cooperation with the United States beyond counterterrorism, including cryptocurrency and critical minerals. Rep. SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that addresses South Asia, told your host that above all, 'India and Pakistan are neighbors who must coexist' and argued that conflict between the two is detrimental to U.S. interests. She added that the U.S. should leave both countries to resolve the Kashmir dispute, though it should still de-escalate tensions as needed to avoid broader war. Broadsides BEIJING AND PRETORIA'S BOND: Chinese Defense Minister DONG JUN — who was a no-show at last week's Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore — hasn't been arrested for suspected corruption after all. Instead, he was meeting with South African officials. Dong caught up with visiting South African Defense Minister RUDZANI MAPHWANYA in Beijing today and described the two countries as 'comrades and brothers' while lacing in some implicit criticism of the U.S. Per a Chinese Defense Ministry statement, they also discussed China's claims to Taiwan and improving military cooperation between the two countries. Dong's visit to South Africa underscores how Pretoria has deepened its ties with U.S. adversaries like China and Russia in recent years, which has strained its ties with Washington. Transitions — FBI veteran BRETT LEATHERMAN wrote on LinkedIn that he was selected as assistant director and lead official for the FBI's primary division to investigate cybercrimes. — RICHARD JOHNSON joined OpenAI as its national security risk mitigation lead. Johnson was previously deputy assistant secretary of Defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy. What to Read — Isabel Kerchner, The New York Times: Finding God, and Nietzsche, in the Hamas Tunnels of Gaza — Kyodo News: Japan sees 1st simultaneous operations by China carriers in the Pacific — USA Today: 'Dictator-style military parade?' Other world leaders who show off tanks and missiles Tomorrow Today — German Marshall Fund, 6 a.m.: Brussels Forum 2025: Partnership Disrupted: How Can Transatlantic Cooperation Endure?' — Arab Center, 9:30 a.m.: Second annual Palestine Conference with the theme 'A Historic Juncture: Israel's Destruction of Gaza and the Palestinian Future.' — House Oversight and Government Reform Military and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Clearing the Path: Reforming Procurement to Accelerate Defense Innovation — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Navy FY2026 Budget Request — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: A Review of the President's FY2026 Budget Request for the Department of Defense — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Risky Business: How Chinese Companies Use Hong Kong to Evade U.S. Sanctions. — House Homeland Security Counterterrorism and Intelligence Subcommittee, 10:30 a.m.: The Rise of Anti-Israel Extremist Groups and Their Threat to U.S. National Security — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: Understanding the Information Environment to Protect Democracy Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Katherine Long, who never succeed in undermining our diplomatic efforts.
Politico
7 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Cyber cuts are freaking out China watchers
Presented by With help from Anthony Adragna and Aaron Mak More than 1,000 cybersecurity professionals have either left or are set to walk off their jobs in the federal government in the coming months, as the Department of Government Efficiency initiative drives layoffs and buyouts across agencies. The timing could not be worse: staff numbers are plummeting just as China is ramping up its cyberattacks — and these efforts have soared in recent years. These operations include hacking group Volt Typhoon, found to have burrowed widely into critical infrastructure since at least 2022, with experts warning U.S. water systems and transportation networks have been compromised. And they also include Salt Typhoon, discovered to be in U.S. telecom networks last year. Together, these ramped up hacks from government-backed Chinese groups amount to advance work for sophisticated war, said retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, current senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 'As a military planner, this is what I called operational preparation of the battlefield,' Montgomery said. 'China has continued to accelerate their efforts to gain access into U.S. and allied critical infrastructures and we are still playing a defensive game of trying to identify and remove [them].' The cuts affect a cross-section of the federal cyber army. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, a part of the Department of Homeland Security, is expecting to lose about 1,000 employees, amounting to about a third of its personnel, as well its top leadership and programs around election security. The agency has been in President Donald Trump's crosshairs since the cyber chief he appointed, Chris Krebs, said the 2020 election was secure. Trump fired Krebs as a result. The State Department's cyber bureau is set to be split up in a reorganization of the office. The Office of the National Cyber Director at the White House and U.S. Cyber Command are without Senate-confirmed leaders. The Defense Information Systems Agency, which secures the Pentagon's IT and telecommunications infrastructure, is also set to lose about 10 percent of its workforce, as part of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's drive to reduce the DOD's civilian workforce by between 5 and 8 percent. Lawmakers from both parties are sounding the alarm. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said during a Senate hearing Thursday that Salt Typhoon hackers still 'have unlimited access to our voice messages, to our telephone calls,' describing it as 'astounding.' A group of House Democrats led by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) sent a letter Thursday to both Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem asking about what has been done to respond to Salt Typhoon. The lawmakers wrote that agency personnel cuts showed that 'instead of rising to meet the moment, the Trump administration seems intent on dismantling the core institutions responsible for cyber defense.' The ODNI and DHS did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Noem told cyber experts at the RSA Conference in San Francisco in April to 'just wait until you see what we are able to do' on cyber, noting that 'there are reforms going on' around the topic. Last year provided a case study for the threat when the Chinese government hacking group Salt Typhoon was discovered to have penetrated U.S. telecommunications systems, including devices belonging to then-candidate Trump and his running mate JD Vance. The breach was so vast that Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.), a former telecoms executive, estimated earlier this year that it would take '50,000 people and a complete shutdown of the network for 12 hours' to fully weed out Chinese hackers from U.S. telecommunications systems. Adam Meyers, senior vice president of counter adversary operations at CrowdStrike, told POLITICO in a recent interview that 'China is just increasing the pace of what they're doing,' noting that the nation is 'just the biggest, broadest threat out there.' Relief seems a long way away. The Senate Homeland Security Committee held a nomination hearing Thursday for Sean Cairncross as the next national cyber director at the White House. Cairncross has virtually no experience in cyber. He previously led the Millennium Challenge Corporation and worked in various leadership roles at the Republican National Committee. The nomination of Sean Plankey to lead CISA is still pending. Plankey is a former cyber official at the Energy Department and on the National Security Council. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has blocked Plankey's confirmation vote in the full Senate until CISA publicly releases a 2022 report on telecom vulnerabilities. Jim Lewis, distinguished fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and a Washington cyber expert, said that it was understandable that the new administration would take time to establish its cyber policies, and anticipated that agencies might stabilize when new funding becomes available after the fiscal year ends in September. But he said the gap until then leaves a dangerous opening. 'Will the Chinese figure out that they have an opportunity and do they need to take it? I think right now the answer is no,' Lewis said of the delay. 'But that's three months of open season.' An Apple appeals setback A federal appeals court rejected Apple's emergency request to halt court-ordered changes to the company's app store — primarily an order that it can't charge commissions for certain payments. Wednesday's order from the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said it considered a host of factors in denying Apple's request for a stay, including whether Apple was likely to succeed in its appeal, whether it would be irreparably harmed absent court action and whether a stay of the lower court's order would be in the public interest. Briefs in the appeal are due this summer. 'After reviewing the relevant factors, we are not persuaded that a stay is appropriate,' the court wrote. U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers of the Northern District of California previously ruled Apple could no longer charge a commission when a link took users to a third-party payment app. The judge said in late April that Apple violated a prior injunction and that a company executive 'outright lied' under oath. 'We are disappointed with the decision not to stay the district court's order, and we'll continue to argue our case during the appeals process,' an Apple spokesperson said. 'As we've said before, we strongly disagree with the district court's opinion. Our goal is to ensure the App Store remains an incredible opportunity for developers and a safe and trusted experience for our users.' State AI rules threaten national security When House Speaker Mike Johnson defended the controversial 10-year moratorium on enforcement of state AI laws in the spending bill, he invoked national security as the reason. 'We have to be careful not to have 50 different states regulating AI, because it has national security implications, right?' Johnson told POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill and Anthony Adragna on Wednesday. The speaker's office declined to elaborate when DFD followed up. Republicans have generally justified the moratorium — and potentially preempting state laws — as crucial for business development. So why does this now matter to national security? Johnson's national security argument has been emerging on the edges of the current reconciliation debate. The House's Bipartisan Artificial Intelligence Task Force floated a moratorium in a report last year, suggesting that states do not have the expertise to evaluate the national security ramifications of their AI legislation. Daniel Castro, vice president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, wrote last week that the patchwork of state laws disrupts the supply chains enabling the Department of Defense to implement AI. James Czerniawski, senior policy analyst for Americans for Prosperity, also endorsed Johnson's national security framing on Wednesday, citing the tight race with China for AI leadership. Is it a real concern, or just expediency? National security has been a reliable argument for lawmakers struggling to get a provision over the line, from the TikTok ban to the CHIPS Act. Whatever the rationale, whether the moratorium survives the Senate parliamentarian is the real question now. post of the day THE FUTURE IN 5 LINKS Stay in touch with the whole team: Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@ Steve Heuser (sheuser@ Nate Robson (nrobson@ and Daniella Cheslow (dcheslow@
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Opinion - Ukraine takes the war to Russia — have the nukes launched yet?
If you believe Russia's apologists, then Ukraine, hot off bold strikes on military airfields spanning Russia and the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea, is recklessly risking giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a reason to go nuclear. The notion is utter nonsense. Ukraine, by taking the war to Russia, is just embracing a U.S. Army saying: 'Keep on keeping on.' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not provoking World War III but defending his country by striking legitimate Russian targets and weapons systems. In doing so, Zelensky is reminding the West that Ukraine remains resilient. They are not losing; they are very much still in the game. As Clifford D. May, founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies described the situation, 'Those who have been saying Putin is winning are wrong. The Ukrainians are holding their own, even though the support they've been receiving from the United States and other free nations has been woefully insufficient.' Ukraine keeps on keeping on. Adversity brings that out of you. This was evident early in the war when Zelensky refused to be evacuated from Kyiv by the U.S., instead stating, 'The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.' Despite Vice President J.D. Vance and President Trump's public chiding of Zelensky in February, telling him 'you don't have the cards,' he did have them. He had been holding them close to the vest for nearly a year. On Sunday, Zelensky's special operators delivered two stunning blows to the Kremlin. Ukrainian attack drones, concealed in Russian cargo trucks, destroyed 34 percent of the Russian strategic bomber fleet stationed at four airbases: Belaya, Olenya, Dyagilevo, and Ivanovo. All of these were launch sites for cruise missile attacks against Ukrainian cities. Then on Tuesday, the Security Service of Ukraine announced it had struck the Russian Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Crimea to Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. 'The underwater supports of the piers were severely damaged at the bottom level — 1,100 kg of explosives in TNT equivalent contributed to this,' the service announced. 'In fact, the bridge is in a state of emergency.' The bridge has since reopened, but the message was delivered and received. Zelensky has no intention of capitulating to the Kremlin. Nor is Ukraine going to allow Russia's nuclear bluffing to deter it. Team Trump needs to be sending the same message and not leaving Europe to go it alone. On Tuesday, the Pentagon abruptly announced that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth would neither attend nor remotely participate in the 57-member Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels. The group has collectively provided Ukraine with over $126 billion in weapons and military assistance, including $66.5 billion from the U.S. Then later on Tuesday, retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. and Special Envoy Keith Kellogg fell back on familiar language and concerns of nuclear escalation stating, 'I'm telling you the risk levels are going way up. When you attack an opponent's part of their national survival system, which is their nuclear triad, that means your risk level goes up because you don't know what the other side's going to do.' But Ukraine did not strike Russia's nuclear triad or threaten their national survival. They struck a cruise missile delivery system that was deliberately targeting Ukrainian civilians from airfields deep within the Russian interior where Putin thought they were secure. Why is it that when Russia attacks Ukraine's 'national survival system' that Kyiv cannot strike back? Ukraine entrusted its 'national survival system' to the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 when they gave up their nuclear weapons. Russia attacked their vulnerability, Ukraine responded in kind. Russia found out 'what the other side was going to do' and now the Kremlin is crying foul. Hopefully, Trump pushed back against Moscow's nuclear bluffing during his Wednesday telephone call with Putin. Russia continues to attack while Ukraine continues to defend their country. Innovation, ingenuity, and the guts to try are leveling the playing field much to Putin's displeasure. This war cannot be contained to just within the Ukrainian borders. The Biden administration already tried that with HIMARS munitions. Sanctuary only affords opportunity for the Kremlin despite Ukraine always finding a way to overcome adversity. As the White House militarily distances itself from Ukraine and the European theater in favor of the Indo-Pacific theater, Europe is rallying to the Ukrainian cause under the leadership of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. London and Brussels understand Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg and that more robust investment in their defense is critical to their security. As Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates cautioned, 'My own view, having dealt with him and having spent most of my life working on Russia and the Soviet Union, is Putin feels that he has a destiny to recreate the Russian Empire… As my old mentor, Zbigniew Brzezinski once said, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire.' Last week, retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus warned that Putin will invade a NATO country if he is successful in Ukraine. He went on to say that Russia could launch an incursion into a Baltic state — Lithuania being most at risk — to test Western resolve or as a precursor to a wider Russian offensive. Last month, Russian forces began to reoccupy and fortify military bases along the border with NATO member Finland. The Zapad-2025 joint military exercise with Belarus and Russia is a potential rehearsal for an invasion scenario in the Suwałki Gap — a 40 mile wide stretch of border between Poland and Lithuania that separates Russian-controlled Kaliningrad from Belarus. If Russia were to occupy the gap, it would divide and isolate the Baltic States from NATO. Germany recognized the threat, and deployed a tank brigade to Lithuania in May. Russia is not interested in a peaceful outcome in Ukraine. On Tuesday, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Telegram that the point of holding peace talks with Ukraine was to ensure a swift and complete Russian victory. 'Our Army is pushing forward and will continue to advance,' he wrote. 'Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up, and those who must be eliminated will be.' Zelensky and his army are in the way of Putin's desired destiny. Europe is finally coming around to recognizing that fact. No amount of Russian whining and bluffing about Ukraine provoking a nuclear war should stop London and Brussels from ensuring Zelensky soundly defeats Putin in Ukraine. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
05-06-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Ukraine takes the war to Russia — have the nukes launched yet?
If you believe Russia's apologists, then Ukraine, hot off bold strikes on military airfields spanning Russia and the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea, is recklessly risking giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a reason to go nuclear. The notion is utter nonsense. Ukraine, by taking the war to Russia, is just embracing a U.S. Army saying: 'Keep on keeping on.' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not provoking World War III but defending his country by striking legitimate Russian targets and weapons systems. In doing so, Zelensky is reminding the West that Ukraine remains resilient. They are not losing; they are very much still in the game. As Clifford D. May, founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies described the situation, 'Those who have been saying Putin is winning are wrong. The Ukrainians are holding their own, even though the support they've been receiving from the United States and other free nations has been woefully insufficient.' Ukraine keeps on keeping on. Adversity brings that out of you. This was evident early in the war when Zelensky refused to be evacuated from Kyiv by the U.S., instead stating, 'The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.' Despite Vice President J.D. Vance and President Trump's public chiding of Zelensky in February, telling him 'you don't have the cards,' he did have them. He had been holding them close to the vest for nearly a year. On Sunday, Zelensky's special operators delivered two stunning blows to the Kremlin. Ukrainian attack drones, concealed in Russian cargo trucks, destroyed 34 percent of the Russian strategic bomber fleet stationed at four airbases: Belaya, Olenya, Dyagilevo, and Ivanovo. All of these were launch sites for cruise missile attacks against Ukrainian cities. Then on Tuesday, the Security Service of Ukraine announced it had struck the Russian Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Crimea to Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. 'The underwater supports of the piers were severely damaged at the bottom level — 1,100 kg of explosives in TNT equivalent contributed to this,' the service announced. 'In fact, the bridge is in a state of emergency.' The bridge has since reopened, but the message was delivered and received. Zelensky has no intention of capitulating to the Kremlin. Nor is Ukraine going to allow Russia's nuclear bluffing to deter it. Team Trump needs to be sending the same message and not leaving Europe to go it alone. On Tuesday, the Pentagon abruptly announced that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth would neither attend nor remotely participate in the 57-member Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels. The group has collectively provided Ukraine with over $126 billion in weapons and military assistance, including $66.5 billion from the U.S. Then later on Tuesday, retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. and Special Envoy Keith Kellogg fell back on familiar language and concerns of nuclear escalation stating, 'I'm telling you the risk levels are going way up. When you attack an opponent's part of their national survival system, which is their nuclear triad, that means your risk level goes up because you don't know what the other side's going to do.' But Ukraine did not strike Russia's nuclear triad or threaten their national survival. They struck a cruise missile delivery system that was deliberately targeting Ukrainian civilians from airfields deep within the Russian interior where Putin thought they were secure. Why is it that when Russia attacks Ukraine's 'national survival system' that Kyiv cannot strike back? Ukraine entrusted its 'national survival system' to the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 when they gave up their nuclear weapons. Russia attacked their vulnerability, Ukraine responded in kind. Russia found out 'what the other side was going to do' and now the Kremlin is crying foul. Hopefully, Trump pushed back against Moscow's nuclear bluffing during his Wednesday telephone call with Putin. Russia continues to attack while Ukraine continues to defend their country. Innovation, ingenuity, and the guts to try are leveling the playing field much to Putin's displeasure. This war cannot be contained to just within the Ukrainian borders. The Biden administration already tried that with HIMARS munitions. Sanctuary only affords opportunity for the Kremlin despite Ukraine always finding a way to overcome adversity. As the White House militarily distances itself from Ukraine and the European theater in favor of the Indo-Pacific theater, Europe is rallying to the Ukrainian cause under the leadership of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. London and Brussels understand Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg and that more robust investment in their defense is critical to their security. As Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates cautioned, 'My own view, having dealt with him and having spent most of my life working on Russia and the Soviet Union, is Putin feels that he has a destiny to recreate the Russian Empire… As my old mentor, Zbigniew Brzezinski once said, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire.' Last week, retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus warned that Putin will invade a NATO country if he is successful in Ukraine. He went on to say that Russia could launch an incursion into a Baltic state — Lithuania being most at risk — to test Western resolve or as a precursor to a wider Russian offensive. Last month, Russian forces began to reoccupy and fortify military bases along the border with NATO member Finland. The Zapad-2025 joint military exercise with Belarus and Russia is a potential rehearsal for an invasion scenario in the Suwałki Gap — a 40 mile wide stretch of border between Poland and Lithuania that separates Russian-controlled Kaliningrad from Belarus. If Russia were to occupy the gap, it would divide and isolate the Baltic States from NATO. Germany recognized the threat, and deployed a tank brigade to Lithuania in May. Russia is not interested in a peaceful outcome in Ukraine. On Tuesday, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Telegram that the point of holding peace talks with Ukraine was to ensure a swift and complete Russian victory. 'Our Army is pushing forward and will continue to advance,' he wrote. 'Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up, and those who must be eliminated will be.' Zelensky and his army are in the way of Putin's desired destiny. Europe is finally coming around to recognizing that fact. No amount of Russian whining and bluffing about Ukraine provoking a nuclear war should stop London and Brussels from ensuring Zelensky soundly defeats Putin in Ukraine. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's gamble in normalizing relations with Syria in the face of Iran: ‘high-risk, high-reward'
President Donald Trump last week announced he would normalize U.S. relations with Syria by lifting decades-old sanctions, and he became the first American president to meet with the leader of the Middle Eastern nation in 25 years – a move that some have seen as an indirect hit on Iran. The news was a surprising shift from Trump's prior position in which he said in a December post that "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT." Trump's change of posture is a gamble that could see serious gains regarding regional stability and securing U.S. interests by deterring Iranian influence, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Us Ambassador Barrack Named Special Envoy To Syria Amid Sanctions Relief Plan "This is what I call a high-risk, high-reward gamble, but one that, if achieved successfully, can actually prevent Syria from being a launching pad for more Iranian malign activity," Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. "But if it fails, . . . Washington would have ended up empowering a jihadist government in Damascus [that] does not have full control over its own territory." The December collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime following the takeover by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, not only signified an end to a decades-long oppressive regime, it also effectively dismantled years of Iranian investment in a major setback to its regional influence. Read On The Fox News App Trump emphasized that this sanctions relief, which he argued will give the country a chance to recover and was soon followed by an EU order to lift sanctions, is a move to encourage Syria to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel. But Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is also the leader of HTS, which is still a designated terrorist group under the U.S. and the UN, has not officially agreed to pursue diplomatic ties with Jerusalem – a push several Middle Eastern nations have flatly rejected amid its aggressive military operations in the Gaza Strip. Trump also emphasized that the new Syrian government needs to suppress the rise of Islamic extremist groups, which Ben Taleblu pointed out is going to be one of the nation's chief vulnerabilities as it looks to completely re-establish itself in the world order as trade, business and diplomacy have been reopened to Damascus. Iran's Khamenei Launches Blistering Attack On Trump After Middle East Visit "Tehran traditionally responds to these sorts of things with patience. The Islamic Republic has an ideological view of the way the region should be oriented, and has put time, money, resources, blood and treasure towards that," Ben Taleblu said. The Iran-expert explained that Tehran is waiting for the U.S. and Israel to loosen its pressure on the regime and its proxies, "and for Washington and Jerusalem to make mistakes in the region as they try to push towards bigger-picture things – like flipping Syria or regional peace and stability." "And it is there that in the interim, while Washington focuses up on building up states that Tehran will focus on building up proxies and partners," he added. Syria is not a united nation as conflict persists across the country between varying minority groups, former regime loyalists and terrorist organizations like ISIS. Secretary of State Macro Rubio also warned lawmakers on Tuesday that Syria could be just "weeks" away from a "potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions." These fractures pose a significant vulnerability for the new Syrian government. "Whenever there is a downtrodden or dispossessed person in a war zone or in a conflict zone, that is Tehran's angle of entry back into a conflict," Ben Taleblu said. "This has been Iran's strategy, sitting and waiting and looking to exploit opportunities across the entire northern tier of the Middle East, from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon. "Exploiting disarray is a specialty of the Islamic Republic," he warned. The expert explained that if the Trump administration wants to ensure that Iran is unable to exploit vulnerable populations in Syria, then it will need to press Damascus to address the sweeping concerns facing various groups across the country. Though the president, and his constituents, notoriously opposed nation-building, which could spell trouble for the long-term security of Syria as it sits in Iran's shadow. "Tehran is going to be playing the long game. It's going to be running the clock when it comes to American and Israeli patience for what the future regional order could look like," Ben Taleblu article source: Trump's gamble in normalizing relations with Syria in the face of Iran: 'high-risk, high-reward'
