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Arab News
20-04-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Frankly Speaking: The view from within the Palestinian Authority
RIYADH: As Gaza reels from an unrelenting conflict that has killed tens of thousands and left its infrastructure in ruins, Dr. Varsen Aghabekian, Palestinian minister of state for foreign affairs and expatriates, says Israel has no intention of stopping what she describes as a genocidal war — and continues to act with impunity. Speaking on the Arab News weekly current affairs program 'Frankly Speaking,' Aghabekian urged the international community to step in and halt the offensive, which she said has turned Gaza into a killing field. 'What can be done is a stopping of this genocidal war,' she said. 'This impunity, which Israel has been enjoying for a long time, only begets more violence. And today, we see only destruction and killing of more civilians in Gaza.' Aid to Gaza has been blocked for over a month and a half, and more than 60,000 children face malnutrition, according to international aid agencies. 'It's time to say enough is enough and halt this aggression — this genocidal war with the increasing brutality by the day on Gaza,' she said. Aghabekian believes the collapse of the ceasefire agreement earlier this year was inevitable, given that Israel's political and military leadership has made no secret of its broader intentions. 'The ceasefire deal will continue to fall apart because Israel has no intention of stopping this war,' she said. 'Its defense minister, Israel Katz, said the other day: 'We don't intend to even leave Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria.' These are very clear messages that this war will continue and will only bring more disaster to the Palestinians in Gaza — and probably the region at large.' In the face of proposals from foreign powers such as the Trump administration to resettle Palestinians or repurpose Gaza for tourism, Aghabekian maintains that only plans rooted in justice and dignity will succeed. 'We know that the US has unwavering support for the Israelis,' she said. 'Any plan for Gaza or the Palestinians must respect the dignity and the rights of the Palestinian people. Any other plan will not work and it will not bring peace to the region.' A sustainable peace, she says, depends on international recognition of Palestinian rights. 'These rights, as I said, are enshrined in the division plan in 1948. The plan set two states. One state is on the ground today. Now it's time to materialize the second state,' she said. She added that the Palestinian state has already gained recognition from 149 countries and has UN observer status. 'This is not a contested land; this is an occupied land,' she said. 'It is the land of the State of Palestine.' During his last administration, US President Donald Trump championed normalization agreements between Arab states and Israel under the Abraham Accords. Despite acknowledging the widespread pessimism about his return to the White House, Aghabekian said she remains cautiously optimistic. 'If President Trump wants to forge peace and he wants to leave a legacy of peace, then that peace has a framework and it entails the respect and the rightful rights of the Palestinians,' she told Katie Jensen, host of 'Frankly Speaking.' 'So, I remain hopeful that this will get to the table of President Trump and the ears of President Trump, and he sees that the future of the Middle East includes the rights of the Palestinians on their state as enshrined in international law.' Her comments come as Israeli strikes on Gaza continue to spark international outrage. A recent attack on Al-Ahli Arab Hospital on Palm Sunday forced patients into the streets. Israel claimed the site was being used as a Hamas command center. 'The genocidal war in Gaza is not justified in any way you look at it,' Aghabekian said. 'And bombing a hospital that is partially operating and part of a system that has been devastated in the last 19 months is not justified by any means. Bombing a Christian hospital on a Palm Sunday is extremely telling.' Israel's military campaign in Gaza came in retaliation for the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which killed more than 1,200 people and saw another 250 taken hostage. In 18 months, the war has killed at least 51,065 people, according to Gaza health officials. Last week, Hamas formally rejected Israel's latest ceasefire proposal, saying it was ready to negotiate a deal that would see the release of all 59 hostages it is still holding, 24 of whom are believed to be alive, in return for an end to the war. Israel had offered a 45-day ceasefire in return for the release of 10 hostages. Aghabekian said the continued killings of Palestinian civilians — including aid workers — in Gaza are a stark indicator of unchecked brutality. 'Even after the ceasefire, we have seen that over 2,000 Palestinians have been killed, and these Palestinians are civilians; they have absolutely nothing to do with Hamas,' she said. 'Today, nothing has been done because everything passes with impunity.' Efforts to establish peace through regional diplomacy are ongoing. Aghabekian pointed to a three-stage Gaza reconstruction plan presented by the Arab League and backed by the Islamic world and parts of Europe. But she acknowledged the resistance it faces, particularly from the US and Israel. 'We have to continue using our diplomatic efforts,' she said. 'We know that this military route is getting us nowhere. And our military efforts are directed at mobilizing the international community with several ventures today on ending occupation. We have the forthcoming international conference, spearheaded by France and Saudi Arabia, to take place in New York mid-year. And we have the global alliance on the materialization of the State of Palestine. And we will continue our efforts on the recognition of Palestine and the full membership efforts, as well as our efforts with international organizations, such as the Human Rights Council and UNESCO.' Despite the challenges, she sees momentum building. 'We've seen that in the latest summit, and we are seeing support and unity from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). We've seen unity from European countries and others giving us positive vibes about the plan and the possibility of sustaining that plan in the future,' she said. 'This is the only plan today on the table that may move us forward. It is very much — there's a consensus on it, and it is in line with the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002.' Still, the obstacles remain formidable. Israel's latest ceasefire proposal reportedly calls for the disarming of Hamas and the release of all living hostages. Aghabekian warned such conditions are unrealistic given the devastation Palestinians have endured. 'A durable ceasefire entails, of course, meeting the demands of both parties, but today, the Palestinians have been crushed for the last 19 months,' she said. 'A durable peace should bring them an opening of the borders, feeding the people, starting immediate relief on the ground, and doing whatever it takes to have this genocidal war stop. We hope that reason prevails on all sides, and we reach the stage today before tomorrow.' Addressing criticism about the Palestinian Authority's legitimacy, especially in Gaza, she acknowledged that ongoing hardships and political stagnation have eroded public trust. 'If we see something moving on the political track, people will start realizing that there is a hope for the future,' she said. 'And today, whoever is responsible or who has the mandate on the occupied State of Palestine is the Palestinian Authority. And that authority needs to be empowered to be able to meet the needs of its people.' The Palestine Liberation Organization, she said, remains the umbrella under which all factions must gather if unity is to be achieved. 'Anyone can join the PLO, but you need to accept what the PLO stands for, accept agreements signed by the PLO, and accept the political vision of the PLO,' she said. Asked whether ordinary Palestinians still have confidence in the PLO, Aghabekian said that trust is conditional. 'I think that confidence can fluctuate based on what is happening on the ground,' she said. 'And, as I said earlier, if people see something moving in terms of the vision of the PLO on a free Palestine, a sovereign Palestine, the liberation of the Palestinian people, bringing people a better future soon, then people will rally behind the PLO, and the PLO can look inwards and think of reform of the PLO.' Turning to the West Bank, she expressed alarm at the scale of ongoing settlement expansion. 'We've seen more and more land grab, we've seen increased brutality, we've been seeing increased violations on the ground, withholding of our tax money, displacement of people, attacks on UNRWA and refugee camps, grabbing of more land for agricultural herding — and this is something new for the Palestinians,' she said. 'There is entrenchment and emboldening of occupation on all levels.' She called for greater pressure on Israel to comply with international law. 'Statements are void if no actual measures are taken on the ground,' she said. 'What needs to be done is holding Israel to account.' Citing hundreds of UN resolutions and a landmark International Court of Justice opinion calling for the end of Israel's occupation, she said enforcement mechanisms are long overdue. 'There are steps that are doable now in terms of what do we do with settler violence, with the settlers who are sitting on occupied stolen land. What do we do with settlement products? How do we deal with settlers who have dual citizenship. How do we deal with arms sent to Israel or sold to Israel?' Aghabekian said, adding that it was time for the international community to show its teeth. While warning of the risk of a third intifada, she said the PA leadership is focused on avoiding further civilian casualties. 'We do not want to transfer what is happening in Gaza to the West Bank, and partly it is already being transferred,' she said. 'So, the leadership needs to spare the lives of the people.' Aghabekian said the ICJ ruling provides a legal basis for action. 'It has told the whole world that this is not a contested territory, this is an occupied territory, and this Israeli belligerent occupation needs to be dismantled,' she said. 'There are steps that are doable.' The PA is also preparing for governance in Gaza, should the violence end. 'The Palestinian Authority is doing its homework and it is preparing and ready to shoulder its responsibilities in Gaza,' Aghabekian said. 'There is a plan accepted by 57 countries for Gaza's rehabilitation, immediate relief and reconstruction. And we hope that we are enabled to start working on that plan.' However, she said implementation hinges on external support. 'Those plans need billions of dollars, they need the empowerment of the Palestinian Authority in terms of actually practicing governance on the ground.' Asked whether Israel or its allies might eventually accept a modified version of the Arab League's plan, Aghabekian said all parties must be willing to talk. 'It's a give-and-take thing,' she said. 'In the final analysis, what we want is to reach the goal of stopping this genocidal war and letting aid move in and for us to be able to start our relief and construction efforts. If this needs further discussion, I think we're open for discussion.' But the human toll continues to mount. 'Palestinians will continue to lose their lives because Israel has no intent on stopping this war,' she said. 'There is no justification for the continuing of the war, and an agreement can be reached if there is genuine intent.'
Arab News
13-04-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?
RIYADH: As Syria navigates a precarious path away from the decades-long rule of the Assad dynasty, Ghassan Ibrahim, a London-based Syria analyst, says cautious optimism defines the moment. Speaking on the latest episode of 'Frankly Speaking,' the Arab News current affairs show that dives deep into regional developments with leading policymakers and analysts, Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. 'Yes, I'm optimistic, but cautiously optimistic,' he said. 'The situation in Syria is not that easy. President Bashar Assad, when he left, literally made sure that all the institutions in Syria were not functioning. He stayed in power until the last day. And after that, when he left, literally, he left the country on its knees.' Four months into a new political chapter, Syria's fledgling government faces enormous hurdles: institutional collapse, brain drain, poverty, insecurity and a sanctions regime that continues to paralyze the economy. 'There is big hope,' Ibrahim told 'Frankly Speaking' host Katie Jensen, 'but the question is: Where will they bring all these resources from, to make them function as in any other government around the world?' The economic picture is bleak. Over 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and basic infrastructure has either collapsed or is running at a fraction of capacity. Ibrahim said the country's rich natural resources — oil, gas, and minerals — remain largely idle. And a mass exodus of skilled professionals and entrepreneurs over the last 14 years has left a human capital vacuum. 'Literally, there is not any good environment to tell to the people come back — especially the talented ones, especially the investors, and as well, the people who can participate in the new reform,' he said. Yet Ibrahim insists that the absence of large-scale sectarian violence after Assad's fall is in itself a major achievement. 'No one was thinking that Syria will end up after Assad leaves without a huge sectarian war,' he said. Though there have been some flare-ups — most notably a wave of killings in the western coastal region in early March — Ibrahim said the response has so far avoided mass escalation. 'If we look at the full picture, it's something promising, but requires a lot of work,' he added. President Al-Sharaa's first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, and soon to the UAE, are not just symbolic, says Ibrahim — they are strategic. 'He tried to relocate Syria within a new alliance — an alliance of modernity, stability and open-minded policies,' he said, noting the president's praise for Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030. Al-Sharaa's upcoming visit to the UAE, he added, could prove essential in Syria's reintegration with the region. 'Syria needs now friends and brothers to help them, to lead, to guide them,' said Ibrahim. 'The UAE is able through its wide network internationally to open the door, to reintroduce the new Syria to the world.' He also said the visits send a reassuring message that Syria does not wish to destabilize the region. 'Syria will be productive and active and be part of this kind of alliance between the regional powers,' he added. On the horizon is a visit to Turkiye, a former adversary now positioned as a 'typical friend,' in Ibrahim's words. But the relationship is more complicated. While ties with Ankara could help stabilize Syria's north and resolve Kurdish tensions, Ibrahim warned that Turkish involvement risks aggravating fears in Israel and reintroducing regional rivalries into Syrian soil. 'We've noticed the involvement of Turkiye has caused two troubles somehow: With the Kurdish internally and with Israel,' he said. The prospect of renewed conflict with Israel looms large. Southern Syria has seen a spike in Israeli airstrikes targeting what it says are weapons depots and military infrastructure. But Ibrahim said the new Syrian leadership is avoiding provocation. 'They are trying to, well, calculate the risk. They don't want to behave like a militia. They want to be a state,' he said. 'We'd rather leave some — there is some, I think, second-track diplomacy open now between Syria and Israel.' According to Ibrahim, there is growing recognition in Damascus that stability with Israel is preferable to brinkmanship. 'Israel, in the end of the day, will understand it's not to their advantage to partition the country,' he added. Iran, by contrast, remains a destabilizing force, he warned. 'They invested the most in this war and they lost the biggest loss in this war. So, they won't leave Syria to be a stable state without working on destabilizing it,' Ibrahim said. He accused Tehran of supporting militias in Syria's coastal regions and pushing for partition along sectarian lines, but added that its influence is waning. 'They did not leave any good legacy behind them in Syria to let the Syrians feel they are welcome,' he said. As Damascus distances itself from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ibrahim said the new government is signaling that it wants a reset. 'Why don't they stop exporting their revolution? Then the Syrians may consider normalization with Iran,' he added. But without the lifting of US and European sanctions, Syria's future remains hostage to its past. 'The sanctions at this moment are out of context,' said Ibrahim. While once meant to isolate the Assad regime, they now, in his view, cripple the new administration's ability to govern. 'So, the sanctions now are literally just hurting ordinary Syrian people,' he said. 'If the West wants to see Syria a normal state running in a normal manner without showing any kind of hostility, they have to help. And the way to help is literally lift the sanctions.' He said that unless sanctions are lifted, growing popular frustration may spark unrest. 'If they don't see improvements soon, they will go to the streets and we will end up with another crisis this year,' he said. The killings in Latakia and Tartous — reportedly sparked by loyalists of the former regime — exposed how fragile the situation remains. 'It was unjustified, it was some kind of war crime, it was not acceptable,' Ibrahim said. He defended President Al-Sharaa's early policy of clemency toward Assad loyalists, but acknowledged that it may have inadvertently fueled revenge killings. 'There was an intention that if all Syrians want to close that chapter, they don't want to go back to that moment of sectarian war,' he said. But the strategy also allowed hostile elements to regroup. Even the composition of the new cabinet has drawn criticism, with some ethnic and religious minorities saying they were not consulted. Ibrahim said President Al-Sharaa is trying to walk a tightrope. 'Is it wrong to choose loyalists from different backgrounds as much as possible? Probably, this is not the ideal transitional government,' he said. 'He wants a kind of unity in his government.' Asked about reports that Turkiye is negotiating a defense pact that would place air defense systems in Syria, Ibrahim said Damascus has voiced its concerns directly. 'The Syrians don't want to let their country be in a box — like a mailbox, with both sides sending messages through the Syrians,' he said. According to Ibrahim, Syria is attempting to broker peace between Turkiye and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. A deal may even be in the works, potentially sponsored by the US. 'He does not want to enter in a proxy war on behalf of Turkiye to fight with the Syrian Democratic Forces,' Ibrahim said of Al-Sharaa. 'And we may hear in the coming months some kind of like de-escalation agreement.' While Syria seeks Western engagement, it is not abandoning ties with Moscow. Ibrahim called Russia a pragmatic partner that has kept channels open to both the former regime and the opposition. 'Probably, Russia may play a very vital role in striking a deal with Israel because the Russians have good relations with the Israelis,' he added. Finally, Ibrahim addressed remarks by a former provincial governor in Syria to a Wall Street Journal reporter, warning that continued Israeli aggression could attract 'holy warriors' from around the world. 'It's probably the message was taken out of its context,' Ibrahim said. 'There is a clear message from Damascus to around the world: Syria will not be a hub to attack any country, including Israel.' Ibrahim pointed to Al-Sharaa's use of the term 'Israeli state' — a break from the Assad-era lexicon — as a sign of a new posture. 'The Syrians look at normalization with Israel as an advantage for Syria and advantage for everyone,' he said. Looking to the future, Ibrahim said: 'All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development — free trade, a Syria open for normalization with every normal country or normal state around the world, including Israel.'
Arab News
06-04-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Frankly Speaking: Will President Aoun deliver on his pledges for Lebanon?
RIYADH: Lebanon faces a pivotal moment in its history as President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam take the reins of a country battered by years of economic crisis, political paralysis, and regional instability. Upon taking office in January, ending a two-year political vacuum, Aoun pledged to prioritize reform and recovery, address the influence of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, revitalize the Lebanese economy, and pursue regional cooperation and stability. Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program 'Frankly Speaking,' Lebanese economist and political analyst Nadim Shehadi examined whether Aoun is likely to deliver on his pledges or if notions of Lebanon's rebirth are overly optimistic. 'There is certainly a lot of optimism, not just because of local developments in Lebanon, but because of major regional ones and international developments,' Shehadi said. 'It looks like the international and regional forces are aligned to resolve the problems of the region as a whole, not just of Lebanon. And that's the cause of the optimism, because a lot of the problems here depend on a regional solution in a way.' One of the defining features of Aoun's leadership is his outsider status. Unlike many of his predecessors, Aoun hails from the military rather than Lebanon's entrenched political establishment — a fact that has bolstered hopes for meaningful change. 'The election of General Aoun, which came with international support, one of the significant features of this is that he's from outside the political establishment,' Shehadi told 'Frankly Speaking' host Katie Jensen. 'Same with the prime minister, who has also been brought in from outside the political establishment,' he added, referring to Salam's background in the judiciary. 'That's another cause for optimism.' However, optimism alone cannot solve Lebanon's deep-seated problems. The country remains mired in economic turmoil, with widespread poverty and unemployment exacerbated by years of mismanagement and corruption. The Lebanese pound has lost more than 90 percent of its value since the 2019 crash, plunging millions into hardship. This was compounded by the coronavirus pandemic, the Beirut port blast, and the war between Israel and Hezbollah. When asked whether Hezbollah, which has dominated Lebanese political affairs for decades, could derail Lebanon's reform and recovery efforts, Shehadi was unequivocal. 'Absolutely. This is the main issue,' he said. Hezbollah emerged from the Lebanese civil war of 1975-90 as a formidable military and political force, drawing on support from Lebanon's Shiite community and the backing of Iran, which used it as a bulwark against Israel. In solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah fought a year-long war with Israel that resulted in the gutting of the militia's leadership, the loss of its once formidable arsenal, and the emptying of its coffers, leaving it unable to financially support its base. Adding to its woes, the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in neighboring Syria deprived Hezbollah of a long-term ally, which had provided a land bridge for the delivery of weapons and funds from Iran via Iraq. Despite its enfeebled state, which is reflected in its limited role in the new Lebanese government, Shehadi said Hezbollah's continued grip on Lebanon's Shiite community poses a significant challenge to Aoun's aim of achieving national unity and progress. 'The question is not about the destruction of Hezbollah or of its infrastructure,' he said. 'The question is the liberation of the community, of the Shiite community, from the grip of Hezbollah.' He argued that Hezbollah's Achilles' heel lies within its own enabling environment — its constituency — which must decide to reject its agenda and integrate fully into Lebanese society. Shehadi said Hezbollah's economic stranglehold on its community is a critical issue. 'Even the institutions of Hezbollah that are being targeted — the economic institutions of Hezbollah — the money is not Hezbollah's money. The money is in large part that of the community, and that money has been hijacked by Hezbollah,' he said. Addressing this issue requires a political solution rather than a military confrontation, he added. Under the US-brokered ceasefire deal struck between Hezbollah and Israel last November, it was agreed that the militia would disarm, handing the monopoly on the use of force to the Lebanese Armed Forces. In exchange for Israeli forces withdrawing from Lebanese territory, Hezbollah fighters were also required to retreat from Israel's border to the Litani River — a key stipulation in the UN resolution that ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Little progress has been made on this front, leading to suggestions that the Lebanese army could be deployed to disarm Hezbollah by force. However, Shehadi dismissed this idea as both impractical and undesirable. 'No, I don't think (Aoun) ever meant to say that either,' he said. 'He never meant that the Lebanese army would clash with Hezbollah and disarm Hezbollah by force. That was never on the cards and will never be on the cards. And it's not possible.' Far from risking a replay of the Lebanese civil war, Shehadi said that rebuilding Lebanon would require a political agreement among all communities. 'Even if it was possible (to disarm Hezbollah by force), it's not desirable because reconstituting the country, putting it back on track, includes a political agreement between all its components,' he said. Shehadi expressed confidence that Hezbollah is unlikely to return to its previous position of strength due to growing dissatisfaction within its constituency. 'I don't think its own constituency would accept that,' he said. In light of US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states, questions have arisen about whether Lebanon could follow suit under Aoun's leadership. Shehadi said this is unlikely without first addressing the Palestinian question. 'I don't think that normalization is possible without a solution to the Palestinian issue, especially not with Lebanon and also not with Saudi Arabia,' he said. He pointed out that both countries adhere to the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, which calls for the full Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian occupied territories and a two-state solution before normalization can occur. Instead, Shehadi suggested revisiting historical agreements like the May 1983 accord between Israel and Lebanon as a potential model for coexistence. 'Lebanon can also look back to … the 17th of May Agreement … which I think is the best Lebanon can achieve with Israel,' he said. Furthermore, domestic resistance to normalization remains strong due to Israel's past military actions in Lebanon. 'There are lots of issues that need to be resolved with Israel,' said Shehadi. 'Israel's bombing of the country is not conducive to peace. It's not a way of getting yourself loved, if you like, by the way they destroyed the villages and all that. 'So, there would be a resistance to normalization for internal reasons. And because we do not see Israel as being in a mood for peace.' Lebanon's economic collapse in 2019 has left billions missing from banks and central reserves — a crisis that new central bank governor, Karim Souaid, must urgently address. Shehadi said that resolving these losses will be pivotal for Lebanon's recovery. 'The biggest question is where are the losses going to go? There are billions of dollars that have disappeared from the banks and from the central banks. These are the depositors' money and the banks' money. And so the big question is who will bear the cost of that? 'The way you resolve this should also set the country on a path to recovery. And the binary view of this is that it is the state versus the banks, but in reality, Lebanon cannot survive without the banks and Lebanon cannot survive without the state. 'So, there's going to be a middle ground, hopefully favoring the banking system, because I believe that the banking system is the main engine of the economy. The new governor has a huge job to do.' While corruption is often cited as a primary cause of many of Lebanon's problems, Shehadi challenged this narrative. 'This is a very dominant narrative about Lebanon, that it was years of corruption. What happened in Lebanon and the reason for the meltdown is not years of corruption,' he said. 'What happened is the result of years of the state and society being pounded, being battered, if you like, through assassinations, through declarations of war, through paralysis of government. 'We've had three periods of between two to three years of total paralysis with no president, no government and parliament in any way. We've had 2 million Syrian refugees, which are a huge burden on the economy. 'We've had a constant state of war in the sense that every year Hezbollah declares war on Israel five times. And that paralyzes the economy. That cancels trips, cancels investment opportunities. 'So, all of that accumulated cost of the paralysis, the wars, is what brought the country down. It's wrong to emphasize the corruption of the country as a reason for it.' He added: 'The rich political elite want stability. And the bankers want stability. The financiers want stability. Because they are very invested in the country. There has been a wrong narrative that has set in.' Saudi Arabia has historically played a significant role in Lebanese affairs — a relationship Aoun sought to strengthen during his recent visit to Riyadh. However, challenges remain — most notably Riyadh's travel ban on Saudis visiting Lebanon. Shehadi expressed optimism about Saudi-Lebanese relations returning to normalcy. 'I'm optimistic that this will come back,' he said. 'The normal state of affairs is good relations. What we had in the last probably 15 years was an exception. It was not a normal state of affairs. It's not the default state of relations.' He dismissed sectarian interpretations of Saudi support in Lebanon. 'I don't think it was ever that clear-cut, that they support a prime minister because the prime minister is Sunni,' he said. 'Saudi Arabia had allies in Lebanon and supported the country and had opponents from (different sects). I don't think it was determined by sect or religion. I don't think the Kingdom behaves that way.' With Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa signaling a shift toward respecting Lebanon's sovereignty following the fall of Assad, questions arise about future Lebanese-Syrian relations. 'The whole region is entering a new phase,' said Shehadi. 'The phase we are getting out of, which we have been in for probably the last half century, was one which did not respect the sovereignty of individual countries in the region. 'It was one dominated by political parties that aimed to dominate their neighbors. Like the Ba'ath. I mean, the example is Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, of course, and Syrian intervention in Lebanon and Syrian problems with Turkiye, with Jordan. 'We have an order which is changing. We're entering a new order. And, hopefully, that order will be more in line with the original protocols that set up the Arab League in 1944, which was the Alexandria protocols, which enhanced cooperation between the Arab countries, both culturally and economically, but also respect for each other's sovereignty.'
Arab News
30-03-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Frankly Speaking: Russia's view on talks in Saudi Arabia
RIYADH: Far from building bridges to end the war in Ukraine, the administration of former US President Joe Biden was part of the problem, Dmitry Polyanskiy, the first deputy permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, has said. In an interview with the Arab News current affairs program 'Frankly Speaking,' Polyanskiy shared his insights on the complexities of the Ukraine conflict, the emerging role of Saudi Arabia in international diplomacy, and Russia's perspectives on the crises in Gaza, Sudan, and Syria. Appearing on 'Frankly Speaking' just days after Saudi Arabia hosted separate talks between US officials and their counterparts from Russia and Ukraine, Polyanskiy suggested that a change of 'optics' could have resolved the conflict years ago. 'The previous (American) administration was unfortunately part of the problem, not part of the solution,' Polyanskiy told 'Frankly Speaking' host Katie Jensen. 'And it has done a lot to create this issue, to set up something that is better characterized as anti-Russia rather than (pro-Ukraine).' He argued that this 'fatal decision to provoke Russia' had devastating consequences for Ukraine, leading to an escalation that ultimately triggered Moscow's 'special military operation' in February 2022. According to Polyanskiy, Washington's actions directly contributed to the conflict. 'The Biden administration was one of those who was fueling the war, who was trying to do everything to inflict a strategic (defeat) on Russia, and it hasn't changed its course until the very end,' he said. In stark contrast, Polyanskiy praised the approach of US President Donald Trump, who returned to office in January, suggesting his administration had adopted a more realistic perspective aligned with the realities on the ground. 'The Trump administration views it absolutely differently, and this is the right approach,' he said. 'They are realists. They understand the real situation on the battlefield. They understand that the Kyiv regime is now losing, and hence the new proposals that they are making, these are realistic proposals and really aimed at stopping hostilities, which would be a good scenario first and foremost for Ukraine.' He encapsulated this shift in approach with a concise observation: 'President Trump has just changed the optics.' Last week's talks in Riyadh saw a draft agreement involving a ceasefire over the Black Sea in exchange for an easing of sanctions on Russia. A byproduct of these talks has been Saudi Arabia's emergence as a hub for international diplomacy. Polyanskiy acknowledged and welcomed this development, highlighting the changing landscape of global diplomacy. 'The world is changing and new centers of diplomatic activity are emerging,' he said. 'We used to have Geneva, for example, but Geneva is now very much compromised because of the position that the Swiss government has taken. 'They exploit a notion of neutrality, but they're acting not as a neutral country.' Polyansky expressed gratitude for Saudi Arabia's proactive engagement in seeking a peaceful resolution. 'Against this background, our Saudi brothers behaved in a very, very positive way, in a very forthcoming manner,' he said. 'They reached out to us, they reached out to Americans, to Ukrainians, and it's hard to overestimate the role that they played.' He also conveyed the appreciation of Russia's leaders for Saudi Arabia's efforts in facilitating these crucial discussions. 'We thank them very much for their hospitality,' he said. 'The talks were organized at an excellent level, and I think that my leaders also reached out to their Saudi counterparts thanking them for what they are doing.' Polyanskiy envisioned a promising future for Riyadh as a center for international diplomacy, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 'Riyadh right now has all the chances to transform into a diplomatic capital of the world, at least in terms of Russia-Ukraine, and the US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations,' he said. 'And it's a very good start, and I think that there are all the chances that Saudi diplomacy will play a more instrumental role here, and we are very grateful for this opening.' Expanding on the scope of the US-Russia talks, Polyanskiy noted that they encompassed broader issues beyond Ukraine, including the crisis in Gaza. He referenced Russian President Vladimir Putin's previous statements affirming Russia's support for the rights of the Palestinians. When Arab News Editor-in-Chief Faisal Abbas interviewed Putin last year ahead of the BRICS summit in Kazan, the Russian president clearly stated Moscow's support for a two-state solution and affirmed that the Palestinian people should not leave their land. Responding to a question about Russia's potential role in pressuring Israel to end the conflict in Gaza, Polyanskiy acknowledged the limitations of Moscow's influence compared to that of Washington. 'It's hard for us to put pressure on Israel, because I don't think that we have the same leverage on Israeli politicians in comparison, for example, to the US, traditionally,' he said. 'So of course the US role here is indispensable to put Israel on a more reasonable path.' Polyanskiy expressed concern over the lack of progress in achieving a resolution and emphasized the importance of unified action by Arab countries. 'I think that very much will depend on the mobilization of Arab countries themselves,' he said. 'We know that there was recently an Arab summit in Cairo. There were very good decisions about the future of Gaza, about the possible ways of settlement.' He reiterated Russia's consistent stance on the necessity of a two-state solution as the foundation for any meaningful efforts toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 'Of course they are based on the two-state solution. This is the core principle that is indispensable for any efforts that are being deployed in this connection, including my country. My country has always been consistent in this, saying that the Palestinian problem should not be sidelined.' Polyanskiy criticized past attempts to normalize relations between Arab countries and Israel at the expense of addressing the Palestinian issue. He expressed uncertainty regarding the new US administration's approach to the Middle East, while emphasizing the significance of Arab countries' collective efforts. 'It's very hard to forecast how the new US administration will frame its line right now in the Middle East,' he said. 'But I see that there is still quite a considerable mobilization of Arab countries that are saying the right things about the ways to break this vicious cycle of violence.' Polyanskiy voiced optimism that these demands would be heeded and that the Palestinian issue would receive the attention it deserves in future interactions concerning Middle Eastern problems. 'And I think that the louder they speak, the more chances there are to see that these very rightful and fair demands are heeded and the Palestinian issue is not being, will not be swept under the carpet in any possible interactions on the Middle Eastern problems.' Reflecting on past mediation efforts, Polyanskiy highlighted the effectiveness of the moribund Middle East Quartet, consisting of the UN, US, EU, and Russia. 'The Quartet of international mediators was the best format that was capable of moving forward and finding the solution, a fair solution to the Palestinian problem in line with the decisions taken by the UN and by the UN Security Council in particular,' said Polyanskiy. He expressed disappointment with the US approach to facilitating negotiations between Arab countries and Israel, which he believed had sidelined the Palestinian problem. 'We were not happy, to put it mildly, by the efforts of the US to facilitate negotiations and peace between Arab countries at the expense of the Palestinian problem,' he said. He further elaborated on the perceived shift in priorities, suggesting that the sequence of addressing the Palestinian problem had been twisted, leading to the current challenges. 'We are not aware of the details of the arrangement. But in reality, it happened so that the Palestinian problem was a little bit sidelined and the US administration was speaking about the possibility of making bilateral arrangements between Arab countries and Israel and then to solve the Palestinian problem.' Polyanskiy attributed the current state of affairs to this change in attitude and the abandonment of previously agreed-upon policies. 'This was international cooperation, international mediation in the framework of the Quartet. So, all of a sudden it was undermined and I think that now we are feeling the fallout from these decisions.' Turning to the crisis in Sudan, Polyanskiy discussed Russia's perspective on the conflict and its support for the Sudanese authorities. Since April 2023, the war in Sudan has seen mass displacement, humanitarian suffering, and the destabilization of the wider region. In a major turning point last week, the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Sudan's de-facto leader, General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, retook the capital city, Khartoum, forcing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to retreat to their strongholds in Darfur and the south. Polyanskiy said Russia welcomed the development. 'We support the Sudanese authorities,' he said. 'We think that they are right in continuing their fight against the RSF. So we are quite clear and we don't think that the international community should put at the same level the RSF and the government of Sudan.' Polyanskiy expressed optimism about the situation. 'We are aware of the gains that were made on the battlefield and we think that the situation in Sudan is moving towards the right direction militarily. And we hope that this will also be a good opportunity to ensure stable and long-lasting peace in this country.' Despite the widespread suffering in Sudan, Russia was recently the only nation to veto a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire and declined to call the situation there a famine. Addressing the resulting criticism, Polyanskiy said: 'This is not a very correct interpretation, with all due respect. 'First of all, we vetoed this resolution not because there was a call for a ceasefire, but because there were, first of all, attempts to put at the same level the RSF and the government.' Polyanskiy explained that Russia's concerns stemmed from attempts to equate the RSF with the government and the inclusion of language that could be interpreted as encouraging the RSF to engage in military actions against the government. He suggested that the resolution's pen holders, Britain, could have made the text more balanced and focused on humanitarian issues, including a ceasefire, which Russia would have been ready to support. 'But it happened so that they were insistent on this, and we had to veto this text,' he said, also highlighting Russia's opposition to foreign interference in Sudan's internal affairs. 'We couldn't let it go and we couldn't really see the situation when there is such foreign interference into the foreign affairs, or into the internal affairs of Sudan.' He added: 'As far as famine is concerned, the problem is that some countries, some Western countries are really trying to use this factor of famine as something to undermine the position and the efforts of the central government, which is not the right way to do it, because there is enough food in Sudan.' Polyanskiy attributed the distribution challenges and the availability of food to those in need as the primary issues, rather than a lack of food in the country. 'Hunger shouldn't be instrumentalized and used as a tool in any propaganda campaign against any country, including Sudan,' he said. Addressing the upheaval in Syria since December last year, Polyanskiy discussed Russia's response to the ousting of Bashar Assad's regime and the future of Moscow's relations with Damascus. Russia suffered a major setback in December when the Assad regime, which Moscow had supported since 2015, was suddenly swept from power by opposition groups, forcing Assad and his family to seek asylum in Moscow. Asked whether Moscow would consider handing over Assad to Syria's transitional government, headed by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, if requested, Polyanskiy said he would not be drawn on hypotheticals. Instead, Polyanskiy emphasized Russia's desire for a peaceful transition in Syria, with inclusive authorities representing all Syrians and committed to combating terrorism. 'We wanted to turn over this page of conflicts and problems that lasted for so long,' he said. 'We want to see inclusive Syrian authorities that represent all Syrians that take on board the position of all Syrians. 'We think that Syria should make serious efforts in combating terrorism to avoid the situation when terrorist elements in this country play a significant role.' Polyanskiy reiterated Russia's commitment to 'maintaining close ties of friendship, traditional ties of friendship, between Russian and Syrian people that lasted for many decades.' When pressed on the possible fate of Assad should the new government seek to prosecute him for crimes committed during the civil war, Polyanskiy maintained that the transitional authority had more pressing concerns. 'Let's not discuss hypothetical things,' he said. 'We provided him with asylum for humanitarian reasons. And I think that there are channels to discuss these issues. So far I haven't seen such a request. And I don't think that this is the main problem that should be the concern of Syrian authorities right now.' Asked whether he thought the Syrian people would welcome any aid or assistance offered by Moscow, Polyanskiy said the two nations shared a long history of friendship, and that Russia would like to help Syrian during this transitional period. 'We still have and we will have, I'm absolutely sure, very good and constructive relations with Syrians because it's not the question of developments of recent months or weeks. It's the question of long-term ties of friendship and brotherhood that links us to Syria. And I think that the very vast majority of Syrians view Russia as a friendly country and the same in Russia. 'We have very good basic elements to consolidate friendship and cooperation between our countries. And we are very eager to help Syrians during this transitional period to shape up this country in a way that they like and in a way that guarantees sustainable development of this country for years ahead.'
Arab News
23-03-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Frankly Speaking: An American view on Middle Eastern conflicts
RIYADH: Norman Roule, a former senior US intelligence official and Middle East expert, says pundits ought to take the 'glass-half-full' view of President Donald Trump's efforts to resolve regional conflicts since taking office in January. Appearing on Arab News' current affairs program 'Frankly Speaking,' he spoke on a wide range of issues, including what Trump's actions mean for US foreign policy, how they may impact the changes underway in the Middle East, whether Washington can be convinced to back the Arab world's plan to rebuild Gaza, and whether a Trump-Putin summit in Saudi Arabia is on the horizon. Acknowledging both the Trump administration's achievements so far and the challenges ahead, Roule said: 'We have a president of the United States in the earliest days of his administration who is showing that he is interested in the Middle East, interested in the Palestinian issue, and has devoted his senior most advisers to working that issue. I'm going to take that as a good start. 'The second issue is, he is consulting routinely with regional partners to include Saudi Arabia, and that's always a wise move. He is also speaking with the Jordanians, the Egyptians, and that's also a smart step.' Reinforcing the 'glass-half-full' argument, Roule said: 'We have multiple Arab countries who are showing wise and consistent leadership and are focusing resources and political attention on the political and humanitarian future of the Palestinian people. That should be applauded and it should be endorsed and it deserves international applause and resources.' Earlier this month, the Trump administration broke with longstanding US policy by engaging Hamas, designated a terrorist organization since 1997, to secure the release of American hostages in Gaza. The US president issued stern warnings to Hamas, demanding immediate hostage release and return of bodies. He threatened severe consequences, stating he was 'sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job.' Roule lauded Trump's willingness to engage with the various parties in the Israel-Hamas conflict to reach a solution. 'I think that it's a sign that there is a consistency to the Trump administration's statements,' he told Katie Jensen, the host of 'Frankly Speaking.' 'The administration stated as follows: We will speak with anybody for a diplomatic arrangement. We won't speak endlessly. We will look for alternatives such as moving people to other countries, offering an extension of a ceasefire, doing what's necessary. We want hostages back. We want peace. We will see where this leads, but we're not going to tolerate endless, endless violence and endless militancy.' On March 18, Israel broke the fragile ceasefire, which had been in effect since Jan. 19, and launched a bombardment of the Palestinian enclave, killing at least 400 people within hours, according to Gaza's health ministry. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of repeatedly refusing to release the remaining 59 hostages — 24 of whom are believed to be alive — taken on Oct. 7, 2023, during a deadly attack in southern Israel that prompted Israel's widescale bombing campaign in Gaza. Hamas denied rejecting a proposal from US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and accused Netanyahu of resuming attacks on Gaza to sabotage a ceasefire agreement. 'The challenges that the president and Steve Witkoff have looked at the scale of the devastation in Gaza, and it is extraordinary,' Roule said. 'And truth be told, there has never been a reconstruction in the history of the world where 1.5 million people, which include thousands of militant armed gunmen, have stayed in place while reconstruction has occurred. 'It's just never happened. And their position is these people need to be moved to a place where they can have normal lives while that reconstruction takes place.' When asked if Netanyahu would dare defy the US president the way he did when Joe Biden and Barack Obama were in office, Roule pointed out that over more than four decades, Israeli politics and Israeli relations with the US 'have been complicated.' 'We've had periods where Israeli leaders who have had very close relations with Washington have had very difficult relations and periods of defiance with Washington,' he said. 'And we've also had periods where American presidents who have vowed the strongest support of Israel have cut off financial support and weapons support for Israel out of anger over Israeli actions. … There is turbulence almost inevitably as part of our US-Israeli relationship.' Turning to Yemen, Roule described the Red Sea crisis as a global concern that requires international cooperation. He argued that the US is effectively waging a war on behalf of the world to protect maritime security and ensure the stability of vital trade routes. Beginning March 15, the US launched a series of large-scale air and naval attacks against Houthi militant targets in Yemen, marking the most significant American military action in the Middle East since Trump began his second term. Trump cited the Houthis' 'relentless campaign of piracy, violence, and terrorism' in the Red Sea as the rationale for the strikes, which are part of a broader strategy to restore security in the region and pressure Iran, the Houthis' main backer. Since November 2023, the Houthis have launched over 100 attacks on ships in the Red Sea and surrounding waters, claiming they were aimed at supporting Palestinians in Gaza. Targets have included commercial vessels, warships, and Israel-linked ships. 'There are now more than 14 Iranian missile systems being operated in Yemen and more than a dozen, approximately a dozen, drone systems operating from Yemen as well,' Roule said. He added: 'Now that logistics system has been cut because of the naval presence in the area, but Iran can restore this at any time and interdict global trade and indeed provide capabilities that extend that introduction into the Indian Ocean and have greater impact on the world's economy. 'The US is saying that is over. And that means that Iranian Quds Force personnel in Yemen … are now at risk if they are standing near Houthi ballistic missiles, explosive boats or offensive drone systems.' Roule said that the economic toll of instability in Yemen extends beyond its borders, affecting Sudanese workers, Palestinian laborers in Jordan, and Egypt's Suez Canal operations. 'We have some significant regional impact,' he said. 'Egypt has lost $7 billion in 2024. Palestinian workers in Jordan who take care of thousands of containers of shipping have been unemployed. Sudanese humanitarian aid has been severely diminished because of Red Sea activity.' When asked about the cost-effectiveness of using advanced fighter jets flying from Qatar and Bahrain against primitive weapons deployed by Yemeni forces, Roule emphasized the need to balance financial considerations with strategic objectives. 'This is a serious freedom of navigation issue that does have economic and political consequences and the US playing its role in part because we're the only world actor with naval capabilities that can do this,' he said. 'Europe doesn't have the same level of ships with anti-missile capabilities as the United States. We've got to do what we are capable of doing.' Offering his cost-benefit analysis of the decision to counter Houthi attacks, Roule said: 'Sometimes people say it's a $4 million missile bringing down a $100,000 drone, that's true. But the actual way of looking at that is, it's a $4 million missile preventing a $100,000 drone from hitting a $1 billion ship.' Roule also suggested that Arab powers should take on greater responsibility in resolving Yemen's conflict. 'There is very little likelihood there will be negotiations with the Houthis. The Trump administration will, and should, leave the Yemen issue to regional partners to work,' he said, stressing that it is 'a regional issue, not an American issue.' Moving on to Syria, Roule noted with satisfaction the new government's 'strong actions against Iranian proxies' and the fact that 'Hezbollah's relationship with Syria has indeed been cut.' 'Likewise, we've got Syria not allowing massive Russian bases in the region. And this isn't a world where we should have massive Russian bases in that part of the world from the American standpoint,' he said. 'We have seen some very promising developments between the Syrian Democratic Forces, how Kurds are handled between the new Syrian government and the Kurds. And in some ways, this is again where Saudi diplomats, where Arab diplomats, where Syrian diplomats, need to push this case with Congress, with the American media. … The challenge remains.' Does Roule think that the sanctions, which were imposed essentially on the Bashar Assad regime, should be lifted? 'The answer is yes, but at the same time, the new regime, which is led by people with dark backgrounds, needs to prove itself,' he said. 'It is attempting to do so. It is not a monolith in terms of its organization or its structure.' Asked how a local solution, even if it is from Arab governments, can be found if US sanctions remain in place, he said: 'Sanctions waivers should be provided, should be watched carefully across the board. 'Syrians should be encouraged to come home and provide it with financial relief so that they can return with resources to start businesses, to enable their families to thrive and build communities. And the West can be part of that. And your show and other voices should be encouraging that.' Roule reiterated his point that regional actors ought to play a more prominent role in Syria's conflict resolution. 'This is an Arab issue,' he said. 'This is an example where we've watched Saudi Arabia and others, but Saudi Arabia, since we're speaking about the Kingdom, play an important and profound role in shaping regional events.' He emphasized that the US and the West 'need not to lead what happens with Syria, but to partner and to follow behind the leadership of the Kingdom so that we are enabling the region to, in essence, build itself.' 'Now, we can help, the United States can help in making sure Israel doesn't complicate things,' he said. 'We can help and make sure that Western banks help Syria as needed.' Despite widespread instability in the region, Roule expressed optimism about Lebanon's future, describing the country as a potential 'bright spot' for 2025. According to him, President Joseph Aoun has been saying and doing 'all of the right things,' including how his government has been handling security, pushing back on Hezbollah, and 'preventing Iran from bringing in cash.' 'It's all positive,' he said. 'I think Lebanon is going to be one of the bright spots of 2025.' Roule praised Morgan Ortagus, the deputy US special envoy to the Middle East, for her contribution, describing her as 'a very smart, capable, sober person' who has been achieving 'considerable progress.' Ortagus' involvement in Lebanon has centered on addressing the aftermath of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict — which started on Oct. 8, 2023, and escalated since September 2024 — and on fostering regional stability. 'She's tireless in her focus on bringing Lebanon to the attention of policymakers and making sure that they get what they need from Congress and elsewhere,' he said. Roule also highlighted Saudi Arabia's growing influence as a mediator in international diplomacy. The Kingdom has successfully brokered deals between Russia and Ukraine and facilitated prisoner exchanges — roles traditionally played by Switzerland or European nations. This shift has earned Saudi Arabia significant respect on the global stage. According to him, Saudi Arabia's stature in the international community 'has dramatically changed in recent years.' 'It is impossible not to recognize that Saudi Arabia is a meeting place for every globally important issue,' Roule said. 'Caribbean leaders, Central Asian leaders, meetings that at one time would take place in Geneva, Paris, Berlin, Washington, now take place in Riyadh or Jeddah.' He pointed to the upcoming March 24 meeting between Ukrainian and Russian technical teams in Jeddah as an example of this transformation. 'That's the sort of thing you used to see in Europe,' he remarked, emphasizing how Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as a mediator in high-stakes international conflicts. Roule said Saudi Arabia's 'global stature is significantly greater' owing to the leadership of King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Once viewed, both regionally and globally, primarily through the lens of Islam or energy, Saudi Arabia now plays a bigger role in shaping international events, he said. Turning to broader geopolitical dynamics, Roule addressed speculation about an imminent Trump-Putin summit. Differing views on ceasefire terms among the US, Ukraine and Russia highlight the complexities of reaching a lasting resolution. Led by top officials from the US, Russia and Ukraine, negotiations to end the conflict in Europe reflect broader efforts to de-escalate tensions. Despite recent agreements, including Russia's temporary halt on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, challenges remain. While acknowledging the momentum toward such a meeting, Roule cautioned that unresolved issues must be addressed first. 'I think President Trump and President Putin will each want some sort of broader agreement, some sort of progress to take place,' he said, referring to recent discussions aimed at halting energy-related attacks between Russia and Ukraine. He explained that while initial agreements have led to some steps — such as Russia halting attacks on Ukrainian energy sites — implementation remains uneven. Pointing to reports of Russian drone strikes during negotiations, he noted that Russia claimed to have recalled or intercepted its own drones to prevent further escalation. Lauding the mediation of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he said: 'We're watching again the region play a bigger role in bringing together not only Ukraine and Russia but also freeing prisoners between the countries. Saudi Arabia has brought home prisoners to the US from Russia, but also Ukrainian and Russian prisoners. 'Riyadh has done a number of remarkable things. We need we need a broader set of agreements to take place. Steve Witkoff and a number of Russian advisers, I believe, are in quiet communications behind the scenes. This is going to need to percolate for a while.' Alluding to Ukraine-Russia talks set for the week of March 24 in Saudi Arabia, expected to focus on securing safe shipping in the Black Sea and a potential interim ceasefire, Roule said: 'We'll see where this goes. I'd watch the technical discussions that take place in Jeddah. There is a momentum that's building here. That is clear.'
