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Straits Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Singapore shares rise even as exports in May fall; STI up 0.6%
Across the broader market, advancers edged out decliners 275 to 210, after 1.2 billion securities worth $993.8 million were traded. PHOTO: ST FILE Singapore shares rise even as exports in May fall; STI up 0.6% SINGAPORE - Shares on the local bourse ended higher on Tuesday (Jun 17), even as Singapore's key exports declined 3.5 per cent year on year in May, reversing sharply from April's surge. The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.6 per cent or 22.18 points to close at 3,930.64. Across the broader market, advancers edged out decliners 275 to 210, after 1.2 billion securities worth $993.8 million were traded. The top gainer on the STI was CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), which rose 1.9 per cent or $0.04 to $2.17. Telco giant Singtel was the biggest decliner, slipping 0.5 per cent or $0.02 to $3.93. The trio of local banks finished in positive territory. DBS rose 0.7 per cent or $0.30 to S$44.46, UOB edged up 0.4 per cent or $0.13 to $34.95, and OCBC climbed 0.4 per cent or $0.07 to $16.09. Elsewhere in Asia, markets ended on a mixed note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3 per cent, Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI declined 0.6 per cent, and Australia's ASX 200 edged down 0.1 per cent. In contrast, South Korea's Kospi inched up 0.1 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.6 per cent. In Singapore, data released on Tuesday showed that its latest non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) print reversed from the preceding month's 12.4 per cent jump and disappointed market expectations of 7.8 per cent growth. Exports to most major trading partners declined, with both electronics and non-electronics shipments weakening. The data suggests some softening in earlier front-loading activity, noted UOB's global economics and markets research team in a report. The bank's associate economist Jester Koh wrote: 'The sluggish Nodx outturn in May did not come as a huge surprise given that there was some evidence that export activity to trading partners were slowing, such as the month-on-month contraction in South Korea's and Taiwan's imports from Singapore for the month of May.' In light of the weaker showing, UOB adjusted its full-year 2025 Nodx forecast downward to a range of 1 to 3 per cent growth, from the earlier projection of 2 to 4 per cent growth, to reflect recent developments. The bank noted reduced confidence in its projections, citing a fluid situation and heightened market attention on the potential impact of 'new' unilateral tariff rates. Koh also cautioned that the payback from earlier front-loading could result in 'a more protracted downturn in trade activity' in the second half of 2025 while 'escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further dampen business and consumer confidence'. THE BUSINESS TIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Business Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Singapore shares rise even as exports in May fall; STI up 0.6%
[SINGAPORE] Shares on the local bourse ended higher on Tuesday (Jun 17), even as Singapore's key exports declined 3.5 per cent year on year in May, reversing sharply from April's surge. The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.6 per cent or 22.18 points to close at 3,930.64. Across the broader market, advancers edged out decliners 275 to 210, after 1.2 billion securities worth S$993.8 million were traded. The top gainer on the STI was CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) , which rose 1.9 per cent or S$0.04 to S$2.17. Telco giant Singtel was the biggest decliner, slipping 0.5 per cent or S$0.02 to S$3.93. The trio of local banks finished in positive territory. DBS rose 0.7 per cent or S$0.30 to S$44.46, UOB edged up 0.4 per cent or S$0.13 to S$34.95, and OCBC climbed 0.4 per cent or S$0.07 to S$16.09. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Elsewhere in Asia, markets ended on a mixed note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3 per cent, Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI declined 0.6 per cent, and Australia's ASX 200 edged down 0.1 per cent. In contrast, South Korea's Kospi inched up 0.1 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.6 per cent. In Singapore, data released on Tuesday showed that its latest non-oil domestic exports (NODX) print reversed from the preceding month's 12.4 per cent jump and disappointed market expectations of 7.8 per cent growth. Exports to most major trading partners declined, with both electronics and non-electronics shipments weakening. The data suggests some softening in earlier front-loading activity, noted UOB's global economics and markets research team in a report. The bank's associate economist Jester Koh wrote: 'The sluggish NODX outturn in May did not come as a huge surprise given that there was some evidence that export activity to trading partners were slowing, such as the month-on-month contraction in South Korea's and Taiwan's imports from Singapore for the month of May.' In light of the weaker showing, UOB adjusted its full-year 2025 NODX forecast downward to a range of 1 to 3 per cent growth, from the earlier projection of 2 to 4 per cent growth, to reflect recent developments. The bank noted reduced confidence in its projections, citing a fluid situation and heightened market attention on the potential impact of 'new' unilateral tariff rates. Koh also cautioned that the payback from earlier front-loading could result in 'a more protracted downturn in trade activity' in the second half of 2025 while 'escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further dampen business and consumer confidence'.
Business Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
US exceptionalism under pressure, but far from over
US EXCEPTIONALISM – the belief that the US economy and financial markets are uniquely positioned to outperform other global markets over the long run – has come under intense scrutiny this year. US President Donald Trump's disruption of global trade through erratic policies and aggressive tariffs, his attacks on universities, and growing concerns over rising fiscal deficits should the One Big Beautiful Bill Act be passed have all contributed to outflows from US equity markets in recent months. To put the current scepticism into perspective, it is worth considering how US markets have performed over the longer term. Over the past two decades, the S&P 500 has delivered total returns of approximately 643 per cent, significantly outperforming other major indices including MSCI China (388 per cent), the Straits Times Index (355 per cent), Stoxx Europe 600 (290 per cent), and the Nikkei 225 (266 per cent), as at Jun 13, 2025. In our view, the structural advantages that have driven this outperformance in equity markets are still very much intact. Hence, it is premature to declare an end to US exceptionalism. Here are some structural drivers of US outperformance. Rich culture of innovation and entrepreneurship The US has long been a global leader in innovation and entrepreneurship. According to the 2024 Global Innovation Index (GII), the US is the third most innovative country in the world, ranking the highest in nine of the 78 GII indicators including the impact of its scientific publications, intellectual property receipts, average research and development spending of the top three companies per country, and the quality of its universities. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Home to world-renowned institutions such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University and Harvard University, the US benefits from academies that not only produce cutting-edge research but also serve as incubators for startups and groundbreaking technologies. While recent policy shifts – such as federal funding cuts to universities and the termination of certain student visas – pose near-term challenges to the innovation ecosystem, we believe the country's culture of innovation culture will prevail, supported by a robust network of private capital, world-leading tech companies, and universities actively fighting for their autonomy in court. This enduring innovative spirit is further bolstered by America's strong culture of entrepreneurship, which openly embraces risk taking and tolerance for failure. This is evident in its relatively forgiving bankruptcy laws that permit bankrupt businesses to continue operations while they restructure their debts. It is no wonder that the US has such a high level of entrepreneurial activity. According to the 2024 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor report, the US achieved a Total Early‑stage Entrepreneurial Activity rate of 19 per cent, well above the 12 per cent average for high‑income economies. In other words, almost one in five adults in the US is actively starting or running a new enterprise. Well-developed and deep capital markets Alongside a strong culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, the US boasts the world's most liquid and deep capital markets, providing the essential funding and resources needed to scale startups into major enterprises. In 2024, US startups attracted 57 per cent of global venture capital investment, far outpacing Europe and China, which accounted for just 16 and 12 per cent, respectively. This abundant access to capital enables individuals with promising ideas to turn them into profitable businesses. In turn, the presence of high-quality companies on US stock exchanges creates a self-reinforcing cycle that attracts even more high-calibre firms. Many companies around the world have forsaken their home markets in favour of a US listing to gain better liquidity and higher valuations. Just this month, one of the UK's biggest fintech companies, Wise, announced plans to move its primary listing from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to the US, citing the shift as 'a potential pathway to inclusion in major US indices, further enhancing liquidity and demand for Wise shares'. While stock exchanges such as the LSE and the Singapore Exchange continue to struggle to attract initial public offerings, the US remains a thriving destination for global listings. Global leadership of American companies Many US companies operate on a global scale, holding dominant positions not only in the US but also in various international markets. This is particularly evident in the technology sector where Big Tech companies dominate their entire industry or even multiple industries. For instance, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet hold more than 60 per cent of the global cloud market share, while Alphabet, Meta and Amazon collectively capture more than 60 per cent of global digital advertising spending. Their key competitive advantages – such as network effects and high switching costs – have made their products and services integral to the daily operations of global consumers and businesses, enabling them to sustain growth and profitability over time. Therefore, while it might be relatively easy to boycott US companies such as Tesla due to the availability of substitutes, avoiding companies like Google or Nvidia is far more difficult. Furthermore, although China is showing signs of catching up technologically with the US – as demonstrated by companies such as DeepSeek – we believe that export restrictions on technology and the substantial capital investments by US tech companies will allow them to maintain their lead in the artificial intelligence race. US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency Finally, the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency continues to underpin demand for US assets, allowing the country to finance its debts and deficits at relatively low costs. This unique advantage enables the US to fund consumption and public spending more easily than most other nations. Despite growing calls for de-dollarisation, the greenback remains deeply entrenched in the global financial system, accounting for nearly half of Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication transactions and about 60 per cent of global foreign exchange reserves. The reality is that while the US dollar is far from perfect, there are currently no viable alternatives. The yuan remains constrained by capital controls, the euro lacks a unified fiscal framework, and non-fiat alternatives like digital currencies are still in their infancy. Therefore, although the US dollar may continue to face headwinds in the near term, its entrenched position in global trade, investments and reserve holdings is likely to ensure its continued dominance for the foreseeable future. Don't write off the US just yet Warren Buffett's famous advice – 'Never bet against America' – continues to hold true today. While short-term sentiment towards US assets has soured amid economic uncertainty, the long-term foundations of US exceptionalism remain intact. These structural strengths have underpinned decades of outperformance in US equities and, in our view, are unlikely to be undone by recent political disruptions. The writer is a research analyst with the research and portfolio management team of FSMOne Singapore, the B2C division of iFast Financial
Business Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Singapore shares rise despite unexpected fall in exports; STI up 0.6%
[SINGAPORE] Shares on the local bourse ended higher on Tuesday (Jun 17), even as Singapore's key exports declined 3.5 per cent year on year in May, reversing sharply from April's surge. The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.6 per cent or 22.18 points to close at 3,930.64. Across the broader market, advancers edged out decliners 275 to 210, after 1.2 billion securities worth S$993.8 million were traded. The top gainer on the STI was CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) , which rose 1.9 per cent or S$0.04 to S$2.17. Telco giant Singtel was the biggest decliner, slipping 0.5 per cent or S$0.02 to S$3.93. The trio of local banks finished in positive territory. DBS rose 0.7 per cent or S$0.30 to S$44.46, UOB edged up 0.4 per cent or S$0.13 to S$34.95, and OCBC climbed 0.4 per cent or S$0.07 to S$16.09. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Elsewhere in Asia, markets ended on a mixed note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3 per cent, Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI declined 0.6 per cent, and Australia's ASX 200 edged down 0.1 per cent. In contrast, South Korea's Kospi inched up 0.1 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.6 per cent. In Singapore, data released on Tuesday showed that its latest non-oil domestic exports (NODX) print reversed from the preceding month's 12.4 per cent jump and disappointed market expectations of 7.8 per cent growth. Exports to most major trading partners declined, with both electronics and non-electronics shipments weakening. The data suggests some softening in earlier front-loading activity, noted UOB's global economics and markets research team in a report. The bank's associate economist Jester Koh wrote: 'The sluggish NODX outturn in May did not come as a huge surprise given that there was some evidence that export activity to trading partners were slowing, such as the month-on-month contraction in South Korea's and Taiwan's imports from Singapore for the month of May.' In light of the weaker showing, UOB adjusted its full-year 2025 NODX forecast downward to a range of 1 to 3 per cent growth, from the earlier projection of 2 to 4 per cent growth, to reflect recent developments. The bank noted reduced confidence in its projections, citing a fluid situation and heightened market attention on the potential impact of 'new' unilateral tariff rates. Koh also cautioned that the payback from earlier front-loading could result in 'a more protracted downturn in trade activity' in the second half of 2025 while 'escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further dampen business and consumer confidence'.
Straits Times
a day ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Singapore shares fall on Monday amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict; STI down 0.1%
SINGAPORE - Stocks on the local bourse ended slightly lower on Jun 16 on the back of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) slid 0.1 per cent or 2.96 points to 3,908.46. Across the broader market, gainers beat losers 246 to 226, after 948.9 million securities worth $1 billion were traded. The biggest winner on the STI was ST Engineering, which was up 2.1 per cent at $7.96. At the other end of the index was Singapore Airlines, which fell 1 per cent to S$6.87. The drop comes after shares tumbled on Jun 13 following a crash involving an Air India plane on Jun 12, as SIA holds a 25.1 per cent stake in the Indian carrier. Meanwhile, local bank counters ended in the red. DBS fell 0.7 per cent to $44.16 while UOB edged down 0.4 per cent at $34.82, and OCBC slid 0.2 per cent S$16.02. Elsewhere in the region, market sentiment was more positive. South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.7 per cent and the Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index was up 0.1 per cent. Mr Christian Gattiker, head of research at Julius Baer, said that for markets, the Israel-Iran conflict 'remains within the realm of Geopolitical 101: a sharp, but ultimately transient shock – unless escalation accelerates meaningfully from here'. He noted that unless the situation rapidly expands, such as through a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, direct US or Saudi Arabia involvement, or widespread proxy engagements, the market is unlikely to adjust beyond the initial risk premium. Until then, he said it remains a tactical event rather than a strategic one, providing traders with an opportunity to take profits and reassess their positions. 'The key for investors is not just whether the conflict continues, but whether it intensifies in scope or duration,' said Mr Gattiker. THE BUSINESS TIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
