Latest news with #USDollar
Shafaq News
5 hours ago
- Business
- Shafaq News
Dollar edged higher in Erbil
Shafaq News/ On Tuesday, the exchange rates оf the US Dollar against the Iraqi dinar edged slightly higher in Erbil markets at the closure. According to a survey by Shafaq News Agency, the selling and buying rates at currency exchange stores in Erbil were set at 141,300 IQD and 141,100 IQD per 100 USD, respectively. Meanwhile, in the capital, Baghdad's stock exchanges and markets remain closed for the fourth consecutive day due to the Eid al-Adha holiday.
Shafaq News
10 hours ago
- Business
- Shafaq News
Dollar prices drop in Erbil
Shafaq News/ On Tuesday, the exchange rates оf the US Dollar against the Iraqi dinar edged lower in Erbil markets. According to a survey by Shafaq News Agency, the selling and buying rates at currency exchange stores in Erbil were set at 141,250 IQD and 141,150 IQD per 100 USD, respectively.
Time of India
16 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on June 10, 2025 and in the near-term?
Gold price prediction: Traders need to take cognizance of the ongoing US-China trade deal talks. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Amidst ongoing US-China trade deal talks, gold prices are likely to continue fluctuating, with geo-political uncertainties adding to volatility. Where are gold prices headed in the short-term and what are the factors that investors need to watch out for? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views: Gold Performance: Top trade deputies of the US and China began their talks in London on Monday. Gold gained on Monday on a weaker US Dollar. MCX August gold contract was at Rs 97200, up 0.16% on the day. Earlier, spot gold prices fell 1.25% to close at $3310 on Friday as the US non-farm payroll report (May) came in somewhat better than expected, though details were not so encouraging. Easing US-China trade tensions pressurized the yellow metal further. Despite falling for two straight days on June 5 and June 6, the metal closed nearly 0.63% higher on a weekly basis in the week ending June 6. The metal rose to $3403 on June 5 --highest since May 8- as traders piled into the metal on safe haven demand as US-China tensions escalated. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Trade Bitcoin & Ethereum – No Wallet Needed! IC Markets Start Now Undo US-China trade talks begin in London: US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnick and US Trade Representative Greer met a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng Monday at London's Lancaster House. Presence of high-profile officials in Trump's Team reflects willingness of the US administration to allow some relaxations in the US exports to China, which may include technical supplies, jet engine parts, etc. China, in turn, is expected to ease rare earth exports to the US. Gold ETF holdings: Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 88.394MOz as of June 6. ETF holdings witnessed net inflows for the second consecutive week following net outflows for five straight weeks. ETF holdings are up around 6.70% YTD. Gold Data roundup: China's inflation data released Monday showed that China's CPI (May) declined 0.1% y-o-y vs the forecast of -0.2%. It was the fourth straight monthly decline as the Chinese economy continues to struggle with sluggish demand amid a raging trade war. China's factory deflation continued for the 32nd straight month as PPI (May) declined 3.3% y-o-y as against the estimate of 3.2% and 2.7% decline in April. The deflation threat will continue to linger unless consumer demand remains sluggish. China's exports slowed from 8.1% y-o-y in April to 4.8% y-o-y (forecast 6%) in May as shipments to the US declined 34% y-o-y, worse than a 21% decline registered in April. Chinese imports dipped 3.4% y-o-y due to trade uncertainty as against the forecast of a decline of 0.8%. The US non-farm report (May) released Friday was somewhat better-than-expected as US employers added 139K jobs Vs the forecast of 126K jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings m-o-m and y-o-y rose 0.4% and 3.9% respectively Vs the respective estimates of 0.3% (prior 0.2%) and 3.7% (prior 3.9%). However, two-month payroll net revision showed a decline of 95K jobs as labor force participation rate slid from 62.6% to 52.4%. The household survey reflected a weakening job market. Even as the population increased by 188k, the labor force dropped by 625k. Thus, even though employment fell by 696k, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.20%. Upcoming data: Traders will closely monitor US CPI (May) and PPI (May) data to be released on June 11 and June 12 respectively for clues to the Fed rate cut path. US Dollar and yields: The US Dollar Index, at the time of writing, was seen at 98.95, down nearly 0.24% on the day. The Index fell 0.14% in the week ending June 6. Ten-year and 30-year US yields were a tad lower at 4.48% and 4.95% respectively. Weekly CFTC data: Money managers increased their net bullish gold bets to a seven-week high in the week ending June 3. China buys gold for the seventh straight month: China's gold reserves were up for the seventh consecutive month as PBoC bought around 2 tons of gold in May. China's gold holdings reached 73.80 MOz at the end of May. Gold Price Outlook: The lingering deflation threat to China's economy, positive ETF inflows and not so strong US non-farm payroll report (May) are positive factors for the yellow metal. However, in the near-term, the metal is expected to take its clues from the ongoing US-China trade talks in London. Positive outcomes from the talks will weigh on the shiny metal. In that case, gold may fall to as low as $3260 (Rs 95,000). Interim support is at $3292 (Rs 96,000). Resistance is at $3365 (Rs 98,000)/$3405 (Rs 99,200). In all the possibility, there may be some tentative positive developments in the trade deal talks. In that case, gold may decline to test the support at $3292. However, full resolution of all the trade related issues looks to be elusive for the time being. Nonetheless, traders need to take cognizance of the ongoing US-China trade deal talks. In the meantime, a light sell position can be initiated with due risk management in place. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Free Malaysia Today
17 hours ago
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Dollar steady as traders await details from US-China talks
The US dollar index was steady at 98.986, not far from the six-week low it had touched last week. (EPA Images pic) SINGAPORE : The US dollar was steady today in tight trading as Washington and Beijing remained locked in trade talks that left investors on edge and hesitant in placing major bets while looking ahead to the US inflation report later in the week. Top economic officials from the world's two largest economies sought to defuse a bitter dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earths, with trade talks extending to a second day in London. The talks come after US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone last week and at a crucial time for both economies, which are showing signs of strain from Trump's cascade of tariff orders since January. The lack of firm details from the talks, despite positive notes from some officials and Trump, meant the currency markets were frigid in Asian hours as traders held their position, reluctant to make major moves. The US dollar was little changed against the yen at 144.57 in early trading. The euro last fetched US$1.1425 and sterling was 0.1% firmer at US$1.3563. 'The extension of talks and some positive soundbites from the US officials could offer short-term relief, markets are unlikely to buy into this optimism without real structural progress,' said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. Washington and Beijing are trying to revive a temporary truce struck in Geneva that had briefly lowered trade tensions and calmed markets. 'Unlike the Geneva talks, where tariff relief provided easy wins, the London talks are now tackling thornier issues like chip export controls, rare earths, and student visas,' said Chanana. 'These are long-term, strategic matters – not easily resolved over a few days. That makes it harder to deliver a positive surprise,' Chanana said. The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for risk sentiment, was flat at US$0.652, while the New Zealand dollar was a touch firmer at US$0.6058, staying close to the seven-month peak it touched last week. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, was steady at 98.986, not far from the six-week low it touched last week. The index is down 8.7% this year as investors flee US assets worried about the impact of tariffs and trade tensions on its economy and growth. Investor focus this week will be on the consumer price index (CPI) report for May, due tomorrow. The report could give insight into the tariff impact at a time investors are wary of any flare-ups in inflation. The CPI report will be one of the last key pieces of data before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June 17-18 meeting, with the US central bank widely expected to hold rates steady. Fed officials have signalled that they are in no rush to cut interest rates and signs of economic resilience will likely cement their stance, but traders are pricing in nearly two 25-basis point cuts by the end of the year.
Forbes
a day ago
- Business
- Forbes
USD Weakness - Cyclical or Secular U.S. Dollar Weakness
Cyclical or Secular U.S. Dollar Weakness? As seen on the Datagraphs® below, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined from a high in January from roughly 110 to 97 in April. Recently, it has risen slightly but remains near its 52-week lows. On a longer-term monthly chart, it is testing what looks to be very key support level at an uptrending line which has been in place for over a decade. A break below could confirm the first secular dollar bear market since the 2003-2008 period. There are several reasons for this decline. First, U.S. debt levels continue to rise, forcing the U.S. Treasury to continue to issue more notes and bonds. This oversupply of U.S. debt has weakened the dollar. Also, the ongoing trade turmoil has reduced the demand for dollars from U.S. trade partners. The U.S. runs a large financial account surplus. However, if international trade dislocations continue, the U.S. is likely to see lessening demand for the dollar and U.S. financial assets. This would represent a meaningful trend reversal from the last five years. Finally, the expectation of the Fed easing later in the year has also impacted demand for the currency. Figure 1/2: Weekly and Monthly Charts of Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar The dollar's movement has a significant impact on foreign demand for U.S. financial assets. When the outlook for the dollar is positive - meaning an expected increase in relative value versus other currencies - demand for U.S. financial assets and real estate tends to rise. Conversely, when the outlook calls for dollar weakness, foreign buyers often reduce their purchases of dollar - denominated assets. However, a declining dollar often coincides with Fed rate cuts which can boost corporate earnings - particularly among U.S. multinationals whose overseas sales are translated into higher dollar profits. The table shows stock market index performance during dollar bear markets over the past 40 years. Surprisingly, periods of dollar weakness have tended to coincide with strong stock market returns. Historically, a median 18% deline in the dollar over approximately 14 months has led to a 21% increase in the S&P 500, well above the index's average annual return. Table 1: Index Performance During Major U.S. Dollar Downtrends, 1985–2025 By sector, cyclical stocks have tended to the be the best performers during these periods of dollar decline. This likely due to Fed easing as well as the economically stimulating effect of more demand for U.S. exports since they are now less expensive for foreign buyers. As shown on the table below, Basic Material and Consumer Cyclical have had the largest gains during these periods. Of note, Technology has also been a strong sector. Table 2: U.S. Sector Performance During Major U.S. Dollar Downtrends, 1985–2025 Within the five leading sectors historically during periods of dollar weakness (Basic Material, Capital Equipment, Consumer Cyclical, Energy, and Technology), here are a handful of the industry groups within those sectors that are ranked within the top-third or so all groups currently. Table 3: Top U.S. Industry Groups Within Key Sectors Further, within these industry groups, several companies with relatively high international revenue exposure also show promising technical setups. Table 4: Watchlist of U.S. Stocks within Leading Industry Groups with High International Exposure In terms of international markets, as was shown in Table 1, the outperformance during dollar bear markets has been significant. We believe this may be due to several factors. First, as previously mentioned, often the Fed is easing thereby increasing demand for more speculative assets as well as stoking future economic demand. Next, weaker dollar reduces demand for U.S. dollar denominated assets. So, foreign investors will seek out non-dollar markets for investment. A weaker dollar also grants some reprieve particularly in emerging markets, by reducing local currency cost to service dollar-denominated debt. Finally, many foreign markets have higher commodities exposure versus the U.S. and stand to benefit as most commodities are priced in dollars. Image 7- USD Bear Market Performance of Global Baskets During the longest secular U.S. dollar bear market, here are how some key global currencies performed versus the dollar. Notably, gold was the top performer on the table below. Indeed, in this current period, gold and gold stocks have been very strong performers with the commodity up over 27% year to date as of intraday June 5. Next, historically when the dollar has been weak, there is demand for an alternative currency that has liquidity and is relatively stable. This has driven demand for the euro given it's supply and organized trading markets. On the other hand, the Mexican peso, which is closely tied to the U.S. economy and U.S. trade has been the worst performer among major currencies. Figure 4: Key Currency Performance During Last Secular Dollar Bear Market,2003–2008 Since the dollar peaked in early 2025, here is how the same currencies have reacted. Again, the euro has been one of the top performers. However, on this table only the Indian rupee has actually declined while the Mexican peso has risen +8%. Figure 5: Key Currency Performance, YTD 2025 A few favorable segments across international markets which could benefit from stronger local currencies, with markets that may be most sensitive in each category. Here are a few dozen names that have recently emerged out of periods of consolidation which fit well within the above context. Table 5: Watchlist of International Stocks Related to Groups Benefiting from Weak U.S. Dollar Kenley Scott, Director, Global Sector Strategist at William O'Neil + Company, made significant contributions to the data compilation, analysis, and writing for this article.
