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Globe and Mail
15-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Searching for U.S. industrial stocks outperforming in a market rebound
U.S. industrial stocks outperforming in a market rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rebounded strongly since April 22, now trading within 6 per cent of its record high from earlier this year, buoyed by recent gains following positive trade developments and investor optimism. In terms of sector performance, the U.S. industrial sector stands out as the top performer in 2025, with the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI-A) up just over 8 per cent year-to-date, outpacing all other major U.S. sectors, including utilities and financials. This surge reflects renewed market appetite for cyclical and economically sensitive stocks as confidence returns to the broader market. Given this backdrop, a quantamental approach, blending quantitative screens with fundamental analysis, can help uncover high-quality industrial stocks that are well positioned to benefit from the sector's momentum and the broader market's upward trend. Using Trading Central's Strategy Builder, we screened for U.S.-listed industrial stocks with a market capitalization above US$5-billion, focusing our search on the sector's largest and most established companies To identify companies efficiently utilizing shareholder equity to generate profits, we required a minimum return on equity (ROE) of 10 per cent over the past year, ensuring our screen focused on businesses demonstrating strong financial management. We added a cap on the company's debt-to-equity ratio at 1 to focus on financial stable businesses with lower risk of financial distress. Finally, we established a minimum rating of 50 out of 100 using Trading Central's Quantamental rating, which evaluates stocks on a scale of 1 to 100, with 100 indicating the most bullish and 0 the most bearish sentiment. TC Quantamental ranking incorporates a blend of valuation, growth, quality, price momentum and income metrics as essential criteria when assessing a company's ranking. For informational purposes, we have also included the recent stock price, earnings-per-share growth last quarter compared with the prior year, dividend yield and year-to-date and one-year returns. Trading Central is a global leader in financial market research and investment analytics for retail online brokers and institutions. Its product suite provides actionable trading ideas based on technical and fundamental research covering stocks, exchange-traded funds, indexes, forex, options and commodities. Strategy Builder, our stock screener is available through leading retail brokers in Canada and worldwide. Topping our list is Crane Co. CR-N, an industrial products manufacturer known for its robust financial health and impressive growth profile. Crane delivered a remarkable 63.39-per-cent earnings growth last quarter and has returned 17.2 per cent over the past year, reflecting strong price momentum. With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.15, the company maintains a conservative balance sheet, making it a compelling choice for investors seeking both stability and upside in the industrials sector. UL Solutions Inc. ULS-N, a global leader in independent testing, inspection, and certification services, stands out on our list for its exceptional return on equity of 41.07 per cent, the highest on our list, reflecting the company's strong profitability and efficient capital use. The stock is trading near record-highs since releasing their quarterly results back on May 6. Trane Technologies PLC TT-N, a leader in climate innovation, has the largest market cap on our list at US$93.59-billion. The company delivered 40.53-per-cent earnings growth last quarter. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64, Trane Technologies offers a compelling blend of growth, income and balance sheet strength in the construction and engineering space. The stock posted an all-time high this week. Trading Central Strategy Builder provides a backtesting capability to evaluate how well an investing strategy would have worked in the past. Using a five-year historical period with quarterly rebalancing, the screen described had a 19-per-cent annualized return compared with 12 per cent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and 15 per cent for the S&P 500 Index. The investment ideas presented here are for information only. They do not constitute advice or a recommendation by Trading Central in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Investors should conduct further research before investing. Gary Christie is head of North American research at Trading Central in Ottawa.
CNBC
29-04-2025
- Business
- CNBC
This defense stock got rocked after earnings. How to bet on a rebound with options
Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) plunged after missing earnings expectations last week. While this was definitely material news, a look at the three-year weekly chart shows the stock finding solid footing around the $450 multi-year support level — and it's already starting to show signs of a rebound. Even though several analysts have trimmed their ratings, the median price target still sits at $545 — a lot higher than where NOC is trading right now. Also worth noting: Northrop is part of the industrials sector, and a quick glance at XLI — the Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF — shows that the group is looking strong and actively participating in the broader market recovery rally. Technical Indicators To zero in on a trade setup, I'm layering in a couple more technical indicators to confirm the signal and improve the odds of success. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Notice that the RSI pivoted on 4/22 and is now moving sharply higher, signaling a potential shift in trend. DMI (Directional Movement Index): The DMI (Directional Movement Index) is made up of three lines: the DI+ (green line), the DI- (red line), and the ADX (blue line). When the DI- (red) is above the DI+ (green), it signals a downtrend. But when these lines start to change direction, it often points to a potential shift in the current trend. In this case, the DI- (red) pivoted on 4/22, and the DI+ (green) followed with a clear reversal on 4/25, giving even more confirmation for this trade setup. To take a bullish trade on NOC, I'm setting up a strategy known as a "bull call spread." This involves buying the $480 call and simultaneously selling the $485 call, combining them into a single trade structure The trade Here is my exact trade setup: Buy $480 call, May 30th expiry Sell $485 call, May 30th expiry Cost: $250 Potential Profit: $250 If NOC trades at or above $485 by the expiration date, this trade could yield a return of 100% on the amount risked. With 10 contracts, this equates to risking $2500 to potentially gain $2500. I dive deep into setups like this in my book Mean Reversion Trading , along with hundreds of real trade examples available on my website: . -Nishant Pant Founder: Author: Mean Reversion Trading Youtube, Twitter: @TheMeanTrader DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 post best week since 2023 to cap wild week of tariff-fueled chaos
US stocks turned higher on Friday to cap a chaotic week on Wall Street, as investors weighed the latest tariff-related developments in the trade war between the US and China. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.8% after seesawing earlier in the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.5%, about 600 points. Trump's fast-moving tariff policy has whiplashed stocks this week with historic gains during Wednesday's session but sharp losses on Thursday. In the end, the S&P 500 and Dow had their best weeks since 2023, while the Nasdaq's 7% weekly gain was its best since 2022. Friday's session caps a chaotic week on Wall Street, with an increased focus on waning appetite for US assets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) climbed to its highest level since February, closing around 4.5%. Meanwhile, the dollar (DX=F) index tumbled below the 100 threshold, while gold (GC=F) hit a fresh record. Consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since 2022 in April as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies remained top of mind, with consumers expecting inflation to surge in the year ahead. China said Friday it will raise duties on imports of US goods to 125%, compared with the 84% previously planned, effective Saturday. The move is in direct response to Trump's ballooning "reciprocal" tariffs on China, the commerce ministry said, but it also suggested it will "ignore" any retaliatory US hikes in duties. Read more: Live updates on Trump tariffs fallout Big Wall Street banks got first quarter earnings season going in earnest on Friday, with results rolling in from JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and BlackRock (BLK). JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the US economy is going through "extreme turbulence." Stocks capped chaotic trading week as President Trump's tariff whipsaw sent the major averages on a wild ride. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.8%, notching its best week since 2023. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 2%, also rising more than 7% on the week to post its biggest weekly gain since 2022, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.5%, or roughly 600 points. The Dow also had its best week since 2023. Tech (XLK), Industrials (XLI), and Financials (XLF) were the biggest gainers this week, with AI chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) leading the "Magnificent Seven" group higher over the five-day period. Gold was winning the top safe-haven spot on Friday, zooming past a record $3,200 per ounce. A bond market sell-off escalated Friday with yields on the 10-year-treasury hitting their highest level since February. Tech (XLK), Industrials (XLI), and Financials (XLF) are on track to gain for the past five sessions as Wall Street wraps a volatile week. The Trump tariff policy took an unexpected turn on Wednesday, prompting historic gains on the major averages after the president announced a 90-day pause on some 75 countries while increasing levies on China to 145%. On Thursday, stocks fell sharply. But on Friday afternoon, the major averages were firmly in the green. Gold was winning the top safe-haven spot on Friday, zooming past a record $3,200 per ounce, while bonds and the dollar slid. Gold (GC=F) futures were on track for their best five days since 2020 to cap a chaotic week on Wall Street against the backdrop of an escalating trade war between China and the US. On Friday, China said it will raise duties on imports of US goods to 125%. The move was in direct response to the Trump administration raising its reciprocal tariffs on China to 145% this week while duties on other countries were paused for 90 days. "The new highs in gold are signaling a shift in appetite for US assets," said Ryan McIntyre, senior managing partner at asset manager firm Sprott. "Confidence in the US has clearly been shaken so people are looking to diversify." The reaction in the long-dated bond market, typically seen as a safe haven, spooked investors this week as Treasurys have been selling off. On Friday, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.56%. Bond prices and yields are inversely correlated. 'Usually, gold would need to consolidate at new lows before fresh buyers emerge to take advantage of lower prices … but investors were desperate to find a safe haven amongst the market carnage, particularly after the flight into US Treasuries, the traditional 'flight to quality' trade, went so spectacularly wrong,' said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. The Federal Reserve 'would absolutely be prepared' to stabilize the market if it were required, Boston Fed president Susan Collins told the Financial Times on Friday. Collins told the newspaper that 'markets are continuing to function well' and that 'we're not seeing liquidity concerns overall.' However, she said that the central bank policymakers 'have tools to address concerns about market functioning or liquidity should they arise.' 'We have had to deploy quite quickly, various tools,' said Collins.'We would absolutely be prepared to do that as needed.' Investors have been closely watching the market as it wraps up a volatile week. Yields on the 10-year Treasury spiked to their highest level since February on Friday as the dollar sold off, sparking concerns of decreasing demand for US assets. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: The bond market sell-off escalated Friday to cap off one of the most volatile and unusual trading weeks in recent memory as President Trump's tariff whipsaw sent yields surging and stocks plummeting. Long-term Treasury yields ripped higher, with the 10-year yield (^TNX) surging to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday's low of 3.87%. According to data compiled by Yahoo Finance, the 10-year has logged its biggest week since November 2021. Similarly, the 30-year yield (^TYX) jumped 7 basis points to trade near 4.92% — the highest level since January but the biggest weekly surge for the 30-year yield since 1982. Yields and bonds are inversely correlated, meaning higher yields equal falling bond prices. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. The White House press secretary on Friday said phones are "ringing off the hook" after the US paused tariffs on some 75 countries to give time for them to strike a deal with the US. The claim follows a trade war escalation with Beijing as the US increased tariffs on China, but paused levies on other countries, while keeping a blanket 10% blanket levy on them. When asked by a reporter why any US allies would work to isolate China in a trade war, Press Secretary Karoline Levitt replied, "You'll have to talk to our allies who are reaching out to us. The phone are ringing off of the hooks." "They need the United States of America. They need our markets, they need our consumer base," she said. Nvidia (NVDA) was on track to be the biggest gainer out of the "Magnificent Seven" group following a volatile week on Wall Street. On Friday, the AI chipmaker rose 2.5%. For the week the megacap was set to gain 17%, thanks to Wednesday's historic rally after President Trump put a tariff pause on some 75 countries. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) were also on track to end the week with gains of around 7% each. Even Apple (AAPL), caught in the crosshairs of the US-China trade war, was on pace to close out the week by more than 5% higher. US stocks turned green on Friday as investors weighed the latest tariff development in the trade war between the US and China. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.3%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.2% The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) pared back gains to hover near 4.47% while the dollar (DX=F) index tumbled below the psychological 100 threshold. The emerging theme from this week's tariff-sparked whiplash on Wall Street is whether the volatility in US bonds and the dollar signals waning appetite for US assets and their roles as safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index ( a key measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies, fell below the 100 level to its weakest point since April 2022. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday's low of 3.87%. When demand for bonds is lower, their yields rise. The moves this week were sparked by escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, as the US raised tariffs against Chinese goods and China increased levies on American imports. "Beyond trade frictions, there's a worrying trend: a decline in the appeal of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe-haven assets," wrote Quasar Elizundia, research strategist at Pepperstone. "Historically, during times of global uncertainty, these instruments attracted capital seeking safety. However, current dynamics suggest a disconnect. Even amid global turmoil, the sentiment toward the dollar and Treasuries as safe havens is turning negative — a sign that something fundamental may be shifting." Perhaps enforcing that sentiment is the rise in gold (GC=F), which surged above $3,200 on Friday to hit a fresh record. The home improvement sector is in flux. Data from Bank of America shows that home improvement spending declined 2% year over year in March, following an 8% drop in February, underscoring a downward trend affecting the industry. At the same time, spending on housing-related services grew 6% year over year in March, signaling a shift in how consumers are allocating their home improvement dollars. Analysts at Bank of America noted consumers moved toward contracting professional services rather than buying materials themselves for do-it-yourself (DIY) projects. The report highlights that 6 out of 10 building categories saw year-over-year gains in March. The strongest performing categories include residential general contractors, roofing, siding, and HVAC services. Meanwhile, floor coverings and concrete contractors saw the weakest demand. Retailers like Home Depot (HD) echoed this shift, reporting strong sales in appliances and power tools, signaling consumer interest in professional-grade products and services. Still, looming tariffs could throw a wrench into the industry. While President Trump has reversed some tariff threats, China remains heavily targeted, with Chinese imports facing tariffs of 145%. These elevated duties could significantly raise the cost of building materials and home improvement products, adding more pressure in the months ahead. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Friday that the US economy could already be in a recession. 'I think we're very close [to], if not in, a recession now,' Fink told 'Squawk on the Street.' The Trump administration's tariff policy has sparked fears of a recession. Trump's 90-day pause on some 75 countries announced earlier this week eased some of those concerns, but the escalating trade war between China and the US has not. 'I think you're going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there's more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty,' Fink said. Another Federal Reserve official poured cold water on the notion of near-term rate cuts due to concerns about the inflationary effects of new tariffs. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. Long-term Treasury yields ripped higher on Friday, capping off one of the most volatile weeks in the bond market in recent memory. By mid-morning trade, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday's low of 3.87%. It's been the biggest week for the 10-year since November 2021. Similarly, the 30-year yield (^TYX) jumped another 8 basis points to trade near 4.93% — also ahead of Wednesday's highs. It's been the biggest week for the 30-year yield since ... get ready for this ... June 1982. Read more about this week's bond market moves here. Stocks flipped into the green after CNN reported that the Trump administration privately reached out to Chinese officials ahead of China's latest retaliation that raised the country's tariff rate on US imports to 125%. However, China appeared to rebuff that outreach as the US's global trade provocations have narrowed to primarily focus on the US-China trade war. From CNN: Read more here. Consumer sentiment tumbled further in April as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies were top of mind. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its lowest level since June 2022. The index slid to a reading of 50.8, below the 57 seen last month and the 53.8 expected by economists. Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in April as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% from 4.9% the month prior. This marked the highest one-year inflation expectations since 1981. Just three months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year. Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed too, hitting 4.4% in April, up from 4.1% in March. The lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025 is sticking to his bearish call as tariff uncertainty continues to unsettle markets. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. US stocks dropped at the open on Friday after China raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, but hinted it won't respond to any further escalation from the US. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved down 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was 0.5% lower. China announced it will increase duties on US imports to 125%, but will "ignore" any further retaliatory hikes from Washington. On Thursday the White House clarified tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 145%. Earlier this week, President Trump paused tariffs on some 75 countries for 90 days. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but are on track for their second weekly loss in a row amid a trade war and expectations of more output from OPEC+. Futures for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, rose over 0.1%. WTI is trading at the critical $60 per barrel level, while Brent declined to $63 per barrel. Reuters reports: Read more here. Stocks capped chaotic trading week as President Trump's tariff whipsaw sent the major averages on a wild ride. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.8%, notching its best week since 2023. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 2%, also rising more than 7% on the week to post its biggest weekly gain since 2022, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.5%, or roughly 600 points. The Dow also had its best week since 2023. Tech (XLK), Industrials (XLI), and Financials (XLF) were the biggest gainers this week, with AI chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) leading the "Magnificent Seven" group higher over the five-day period. Gold was winning the top safe-haven spot on Friday, zooming past a record $3,200 per ounce. A bond market sell-off escalated Friday with yields on the 10-year-treasury hitting their highest level since February. Tech (XLK), Industrials (XLI), and Financials (XLF) are on track to gain for the past five sessions as Wall Street wraps a volatile week. The Trump tariff policy took an unexpected turn on Wednesday, prompting historic gains on the major averages after the president announced a 90-day pause on some 75 countries while increasing levies on China to 145%. On Thursday, stocks fell sharply. But on Friday afternoon, the major averages were firmly in the green. Gold was winning the top safe-haven spot on Friday, zooming past a record $3,200 per ounce, while bonds and the dollar slid. Gold (GC=F) futures were on track for their best five days since 2020 to cap a chaotic week on Wall Street against the backdrop of an escalating trade war between China and the US. On Friday, China said it will raise duties on imports of US goods to 125%. The move was in direct response to the Trump administration raising its reciprocal tariffs on China to 145% this week while duties on other countries were paused for 90 days. "The new highs in gold are signaling a shift in appetite for US assets," said Ryan McIntyre, senior managing partner at asset manager firm Sprott. "Confidence in the US has clearly been shaken so people are looking to diversify." The reaction in the long-dated bond market, typically seen as a safe haven, spooked investors this week as Treasurys have been selling off. On Friday, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.56%. Bond prices and yields are inversely correlated. 'Usually, gold would need to consolidate at new lows before fresh buyers emerge to take advantage of lower prices … but investors were desperate to find a safe haven amongst the market carnage, particularly after the flight into US Treasuries, the traditional 'flight to quality' trade, went so spectacularly wrong,' said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. The Federal Reserve 'would absolutely be prepared' to stabilize the market if it were required, Boston Fed president Susan Collins told the Financial Times on Friday. Collins told the newspaper that 'markets are continuing to function well' and that 'we're not seeing liquidity concerns overall.' However, she said that the central bank policymakers 'have tools to address concerns about market functioning or liquidity should they arise.' 'We have had to deploy quite quickly, various tools,' said Collins.'We would absolutely be prepared to do that as needed.' Investors have been closely watching the market as it wraps up a volatile week. Yields on the 10-year Treasury spiked to their highest level since February on Friday as the dollar sold off, sparking concerns of decreasing demand for US assets. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: The bond market sell-off escalated Friday to cap off one of the most volatile and unusual trading weeks in recent memory as President Trump's tariff whipsaw sent yields surging and stocks plummeting. Long-term Treasury yields ripped higher, with the 10-year yield (^TNX) surging to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday's low of 3.87%. According to data compiled by Yahoo Finance, the 10-year has logged its biggest week since November 2021. Similarly, the 30-year yield (^TYX) jumped 7 basis points to trade near 4.92% — the highest level since January but the biggest weekly surge for the 30-year yield since 1982. Yields and bonds are inversely correlated, meaning higher yields equal falling bond prices. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. The White House press secretary on Friday said phones are "ringing off the hook" after the US paused tariffs on some 75 countries to give time for them to strike a deal with the US. The claim follows a trade war escalation with Beijing as the US increased tariffs on China, but paused levies on other countries, while keeping a blanket 10% blanket levy on them. When asked by a reporter why any US allies would work to isolate China in a trade war, Press Secretary Karoline Levitt replied, "You'll have to talk to our allies who are reaching out to us. The phone are ringing off of the hooks." "They need the United States of America. They need our markets, they need our consumer base," she said. Nvidia (NVDA) was on track to be the biggest gainer out of the "Magnificent Seven" group following a volatile week on Wall Street. On Friday, the AI chipmaker rose 2.5%. For the week the megacap was set to gain 17%, thanks to Wednesday's historic rally after President Trump put a tariff pause on some 75 countries. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) were also on track to end the week with gains of around 7% each. Even Apple (AAPL), caught in the crosshairs of the US-China trade war, was on pace to close out the week by more than 5% higher. US stocks turned green on Friday as investors weighed the latest tariff development in the trade war between the US and China. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.3%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.2% The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) pared back gains to hover near 4.47% while the dollar (DX=F) index tumbled below the psychological 100 threshold. The emerging theme from this week's tariff-sparked whiplash on Wall Street is whether the volatility in US bonds and the dollar signals waning appetite for US assets and their roles as safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index ( a key measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies, fell below the 100 level to its weakest point since April 2022. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday's low of 3.87%. When demand for bonds is lower, their yields rise. The moves this week were sparked by escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, as the US raised tariffs against Chinese goods and China increased levies on American imports. "Beyond trade frictions, there's a worrying trend: a decline in the appeal of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe-haven assets," wrote Quasar Elizundia, research strategist at Pepperstone. "Historically, during times of global uncertainty, these instruments attracted capital seeking safety. However, current dynamics suggest a disconnect. Even amid global turmoil, the sentiment toward the dollar and Treasuries as safe havens is turning negative — a sign that something fundamental may be shifting." Perhaps enforcing that sentiment is the rise in gold (GC=F), which surged above $3,200 on Friday to hit a fresh record. The home improvement sector is in flux. Data from Bank of America shows that home improvement spending declined 2% year over year in March, following an 8% drop in February, underscoring a downward trend affecting the industry. At the same time, spending on housing-related services grew 6% year over year in March, signaling a shift in how consumers are allocating their home improvement dollars. Analysts at Bank of America noted consumers moved toward contracting professional services rather than buying materials themselves for do-it-yourself (DIY) projects. The report highlights that 6 out of 10 building categories saw year-over-year gains in March. The strongest performing categories include residential general contractors, roofing, siding, and HVAC services. Meanwhile, floor coverings and concrete contractors saw the weakest demand. Retailers like Home Depot (HD) echoed this shift, reporting strong sales in appliances and power tools, signaling consumer interest in professional-grade products and services. Still, looming tariffs could throw a wrench into the industry. While President Trump has reversed some tariff threats, China remains heavily targeted, with Chinese imports facing tariffs of 145%. These elevated duties could significantly raise the cost of building materials and home improvement products, adding more pressure in the months ahead. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Friday that the US economy could already be in a recession. 'I think we're very close [to], if not in, a recession now,' Fink told 'Squawk on the Street.' The Trump administration's tariff policy has sparked fears of a recession. Trump's 90-day pause on some 75 countries announced earlier this week eased some of those concerns, but the escalating trade war between China and the US has not. 'I think you're going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there's more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty,' Fink said. Another Federal Reserve official poured cold water on the notion of near-term rate cuts due to concerns about the inflationary effects of new tariffs. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. Long-term Treasury yields ripped higher on Friday, capping off one of the most volatile weeks in the bond market in recent memory. By mid-morning trade, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday's low of 3.87%. It's been the biggest week for the 10-year since November 2021. Similarly, the 30-year yield (^TYX) jumped another 8 basis points to trade near 4.93% — also ahead of Wednesday's highs. It's been the biggest week for the 30-year yield since ... get ready for this ... June 1982. Read more about this week's bond market moves here. Stocks flipped into the green after CNN reported that the Trump administration privately reached out to Chinese officials ahead of China's latest retaliation that raised the country's tariff rate on US imports to 125%. However, China appeared to rebuff that outreach as the US's global trade provocations have narrowed to primarily focus on the US-China trade war. From CNN: Read more here. Consumer sentiment tumbled further in April as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies were top of mind. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its lowest level since June 2022. The index slid to a reading of 50.8, below the 57 seen last month and the 53.8 expected by economists. Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in April as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% from 4.9% the month prior. This marked the highest one-year inflation expectations since 1981. Just three months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year. Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed too, hitting 4.4% in April, up from 4.1% in March. The lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025 is sticking to his bearish call as tariff uncertainty continues to unsettle markets. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. US stocks dropped at the open on Friday after China raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, but hinted it won't respond to any further escalation from the US. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved down 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was 0.5% lower. China announced it will increase duties on US imports to 125%, but will "ignore" any further retaliatory hikes from Washington. On Thursday the White House clarified tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 145%. Earlier this week, President Trump paused tariffs on some 75 countries for 90 days. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but are on track for their second weekly loss in a row amid a trade war and expectations of more output from OPEC+. Futures for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, rose over 0.1%. WTI is trading at the critical $60 per barrel level, while Brent declined to $63 per barrel. Reuters reports: Read more here. 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