Analysis: Is the United States headed for a Trump recession?
Opinion by Heather Long
Heather Long is a columnist at the Washington Post. She was US economics correspondent from 2017 to 2021 and a member of the editorial board from 2021 to 2024. Before The Post, she was a senior economics reporter at CNN and a columnist and deputy editor at the Patriot-News. She also worked at an investment firm in London and was a Rhodes Scholar.
THREE KEY FACTS:
The alarming signs just keep coming since US President Donald Trump announced massive global tariffs on 'Liberation Day'. The price of gold has soared to an all–time high as people rush for the ultimate safe asset. The US dollar
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By Stephen Collinson , CNN Law enforcement take positions on the streets surrounding the federal building during a protest following federal immigration operations in Los Angeles, California. Photo: RINGO CHIU / AFP Analysis: This is the showdown the White House has been waiting for. Unrest sparked by federal immigration raids in Los Angeles provided a questionable catalyst for President Donald Trump to stage a demonstration of military force. His deployment of National Guard troops , against the wishes of California's governor and LA's mayor - both Democrats - appears at this point to be mostly for show, intended to create the perception of the administration getting tough. But the reservists' presence at a fraught, politicized moment could worsen tensions and even become a trip wire that prompts more aggressive administration action. Northern Command said Sunday evening that 500 US Marines were now on "prepared to deploy" status ahead of what would be a stunning and constitutionally dubious escalation if they were to show up in Los Angeles. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday: "Looking really bad in L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!" The president did not specify whether he was talking about National Guard reservists or active-duty soldiers, but his post cemented an impression that the administration is seeking a confrontation, which would pose fresh questions about Trump's aggressive use of presidential power. Overnight, CNN witnessed police using flash-bangs and tear gas to disperse crowds, with some officers hitting protesters , as well as protesters setting self-driving cars on fire. Police have declared all of downtown Los Angeles an unlawful assembly area after arresting dozens over the weekend. Trump's rhetoric suggests he's eyeing political objectives that go beyond the immediate situation in Los Angeles, which, compared with historical precedents, hardly seems to justify a unilateral presidential intervention. He is delivering a warning to Democratic jurisdictions nationwide that oppose his deportation moves. And he's not simply demonstrating his desire to militarize his crackdown on undocumented migrants, which he promised in the 2024 campaign despite legal constraints. He's implying he'll use the military, specifically the National Guard, to act against protest and dissent - a prospect that is troubling in a democratic society. Trump's move on Saturday is also a hint that he's willing to trample tradition and potentially constitutional limits down the line and that he wants to exploit what Republicans see as Democratic weakness on public order. And it buttresses the authoritarian image-making of a strongman commander in chief who ended last week ringside at a UFC fight and who will cap this week with tanks rumbling through the capital , on his birthday, at a parade ostensibly marking the Army's 250th anniversary. Trump gave the order to send 2000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles after several days of protests and unrest following Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids that netted dozens of arrests. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Saturday night that the move was necessary because of the failure of California authorities to protect federal immigration officials and their own citizens. CNN's Priscilla Alvarez and Betsy Klein reported that White House officials first decided to rush federal agents and resources to Los Angeles to protect ICE agents and guard one of the federal buildings where protests gathered. On Saturday evening, the decision was taken to send in the guard. Despite the heated rhetoric of administration officials and Republican lawmakers on Sunday, however, there were few signs that disorder is raging out of control or that local authorities cannot cope. California Governor Gavin Newsom has accused Trump of taking a "purposefully inflammatory" step, and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said National Guard deployments were not "called for". And by the standards of outbursts of unrest in the US over the past few decades, the situation in Los Angeles does not appear especially acute. On Sunday, National Guard troops took up positions in three locations in Los Angeles, in what appeared to be the first instance in decades of reservists being deployed by a president without coordination with a governor. A man looks at the charred remains of a burned Waymo vehicle in the street following a night of protests in response to federal immigration operations in Los Angeles. Photo: FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP CNN crews captured California National Guard troops, operating under the authority of Trump rather than Newsom after the president called them into federal service, pushing back demonstrators outside a detention centre. A federal officer was seen firing what appeared to be a gas canister. The stationing of troops at federal facilities is a potentially significant distinction since they were not initially being used in active law enforcement. Such a step would infringe on the Posse Comitatus Act, which bars federal troops from participating in law enforcement unless specifically authorised by the law or Congress. Even in this case, though, the legal situation is not definitive. The administration has not so far invoked the Insurrection Act , which in some circumstances permits the president to use the military to end an insurrection or rebellion of federal power in a state. Trump and Stephen Miller. Photo: AFP An objective analysis of the situation in Los Angeles suggests no such extreme disorder yet. But one top administration official seems to be choosing his language with precision. Domestic policy adviser Stephen Miller posted on X that there were two choices: "Deport the invaders, or surrender to insurrection." The echoing of the Insurrection Act by a powerful administration figure who claims an "invasion" of migrants justifies Trump's use of emergency and all but unlimited executive power is probably not a coincidence. The president doubled down in a Sunday Truth Social post, claiming "violent, insurrectionist mobs are swarming and attacking" federal agents. The National Guard deployment clearly risks politicising the military. But it's a political no-brainer for the White House. Images of troops in combat gear, and the administration's vows to enforce order if local leaders won't, boost Trump's tough-guy image, which is an important factor in his appeal to his supporters. It bolsters Republican claims of fecklessness in liberal-run cities that have been plagued by homelessness and crime. By sending troops in over Newsom's head, Trump escalates his feud with the governor, who is one of the most prominent national Democrats at a time when Trump is threatening to pull federal funding to the state. This may also serve as a warning to other blue states that they could see the militarization of the deportation program if they don't cooperate. Then there's the distraction factor. The theatrics of troop arrivals may help disguise the fact that deportations have yet to reach the levels some supporters likely hoped for. And at a dicey political moment, following his public estrangement from Elon Musk and with doubts hanging over his massive domestic spending bill, escalating an immigration controversy serves to change the subject for Trump. Immigration has long been one of his reliable political havens. Still, a new CBS poll Sunday showed that while a majority approve of Trump's goals on the issue, 56 percent fault his approach. Photo: AFP/RINGO CHIU Top Republicans were quick to back Trump's California moves after days when Washington was consumed by the president's psychodrama with Musk . "You have a very weak, lawless-leaning governor in Gov Newsom, who's not enforcing the nation's laws," Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma told CNN's Dana Bash on State of the Union . He went on, "The president has made it very clear: If the governor or the mayor of the city isn't willing to protect the citizens of his state or the city, then the president will." Another Republican senator, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, had few concerns about using National Guard troops. "You provide massive manpower to prevent violence," he told Bash. "It would be nice if Democrat politicians wouldn't keep stirring it up and keep asking people to go out there and protest against lawful law enforcement actions. That's kind of hard to stomach." Oklahoma's other Republican senator, James Lankford, said on NBC's Meet the Press that Trump was trying to "de-escalate all the tensions" by sending troops. Democrats, however, lashed out at Trump's move. "My concern, of course, is that this inflames the situation and that he is hellbent on inflaming the situations," Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar said on CBS' Face the Nation . "Individual governors look at their states. They make decisions," Klobuchar said. "But in this case, the president, time and time again, has shown this willingness to, one, violate the law, as we've seen across the country in many different situations outside of the immigration context. And two, inflame situations." Sen Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats, warned on State of the Union that "we have a president who is moving this country rapidly into authoritarianism." Sanders added: "This guy wants all of the power. He does not believe in the Constitution. He does not believe in the rule of law … he thinks he has a right to do anything he wants." Concerns Trump is flexing authoritarian impulses and that the administration would relish confrontations that allow it to move in this direction were underscored by a post on X by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. He wrote that if violence continued, "Active duty Marines at Camp Pendleton will also be mobilised - they are on high alert." A threat by the defense secretary to deploy a force whose battle honors include Belleau Wood, Iwo Jima and Fallujah onto American streets does not only offend principles of democratic republican government. It would almost certainly be illegal, unless Trump invokes the Insurrection Act. At this point, the conditions of that legislation look nowhere near being met. Trump said Sunday he was not yet ready to invoke the act. Still, all this is chilling given his warning last year that he'd be prepared to use the military against "the enemy from within". This also comes after four months in which the administration has used questionable presidential power to target institutions from law firms to universities to the media. And it has used contentious national emergencies declared to unlock authorities on trade and immigration. Common Defense, the country's largest grassroots veterans organisation, condemned Trump's deployment of the California National Guard. "The militarised response to protests in Los Angeles is a dangerous escalation that undermines civil rights and betrays the principles we swore to uphold," said Naveed Shah, the group's political director and a US Army veteran. Hegseth's post underscores one reason why critics regarded him as unsuitable to serve as defense secretary - the fear he'd do anything that Trump told him to, unlike first-term Pentagon chief Mark Esper, who wrote in his book that the president asked whether troops could shoot in the legs demonstrators who gathered at the White House amid the George Floyd protests. Pete Hegseth. Photo: Alex Wong / Getty Images / AFP Hegseth dodged in his confirmation hearing when repeatedly asked by Hawaii Democratic Sen. Mazie Hirono whether he'd carry out such an order from Trump. And he also hedged when asked by Michigan Democratic Sen Elissa Slotkin whether he agreed that there were some orders a president may give that were unconstitutional. "I am not going to get ahead of conversations I would have with the president. However, there are laws and processes inside our Constitution that would be followed," Hegseth said. Little in Hegseth's tenure so far suggests he'd stand up against any of the president's more extreme ideas. That's one reason why Trump's unilateral deployment of reserve troops to Los Angeles seems like the initial thrust of an expanding administration effort to use the military in a domestic context. - CNN
