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Trump tariffs live updates: Trump says EU deal '50-50'; US, Japan differ on trade deal profits
President Trump on Friday put the odds of a trade deal with the European Union at "50-50," even as negotiators from both sides have expressed optimism about reaching a deal before the Aug. 1 deadline. "I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU," Trump told reporters before departing on a trip to his golf course in Scotland. Trump also said Friday that letters dictating tariff rates for over 200 countries would go out soon while his administration works to clinch deals with larger trade partners, including the EU, India, and Canada. Trump on Friday also said the US and China have the "confines of a deal" as the two sides prepare to meet next week. Meanwhile, US-Japan trade deal may already be under pressure, as reports on Friday suggest the two sides disagree on how to split profits from Japan's $550 billion investment into the US. Trump announced the deal on Tuesday, which includes a 15% tariff on imported goods and a $550 billion Japanese investment. However, the sides do not seem aligned on profit sharing, with Japan seeking a split based on contributions, while the US says it would keep 90%. In any case, the Japan trade deal may have set a precedent for Trump's new baseline tariff rate. As the US finalized the deal with Japan and advanced talks with the EU, Trump said tariffs would range from 15% to 50%, with tougher partners facing higher rates. Trump's April "Liberation Day" tariffs had set a baseline rate of 10% on all US trading partners. Earlier this week, Trump also said the US had also struck a trade deal with the Philippines, which will see the country's imports face a 19% tariff into the US. Trump said US exports will face no import tax in the Philippines as part of the deal. The White House also unveiled new details of a confirmed trade agreement with Indonesia. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reported that a 19% tariff will apply to Indonesian goods. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Some headlines from Trump on tariffs this morning Via Bloomberg: Trump: US will sell 'so much' beef to Australia President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. World's No. 3 automaker Kia takes $570M tariff hit in Q2 Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma shares dive after warning of full-year loss, US tariff impact Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. LG Energy Solution warns of slowing EV battery demand due to U.S. tariffs, policy headwinds Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Japan, US differ on how trade-deal profits will be split Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US business activity rises; tariffs fuel inflation concerns US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. It sounds like Trump now has a new minimum tariff rate: 15% President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. Keurig Dr. Pepper brewer sales volume drops 22%, CEO says tariff impacts 'will become prominent' Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. The EU's Trump insurance As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). Europe approves $100B-plus tariff backup plan A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. Trump tariffs wreaking havoc in Brazil's citrus belt Reuters reports: Read more here. South Korea weighs US investment pledge to trim auto tariff Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Hyundai Motor warns of bigger hit from US tariffs after Q2 profit fall Hyundai Motor ( HYMTF) reported a drop in second-quarter operating profit on Thursday. The company cited US tariffs on vehicles and parts as the reason for the decline and that President Trump's trade war had weighed on its bottom line, the automaker also warned of a bigger impact in the current quarter. The group's South Korean shares fell 2% Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Trump lifts tariff baseline rate, warns countries face 15-50% range President Trump appears to have raised the minimum US tariff rate to 15%, up from 10%, as he prepares to set new reciprocal tariffs before his Aug. 1 deadline. 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. 'A couple of — we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.' Trump's latest statement that tariffs would begin at 15% is a new twist in his efforts to impose duties on almost every US trading partner. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement this week of 15%, which could be one reason why the US president has decided to increase the baseline tariff rate. The European Union said on Wednesday that it is getting ready to impose 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of US goods if no deal is made and if Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after the Aug. 1 deadline. Reports from The Financial Times on Wednesday have said that the EU and the US are now closing in on a 15% trade deal on European imports. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. EU, US reportedly close in on trade deal The Financial Times reports: And more from Bloomberg: Read more here. Trump says he will trade 'Tariff points' for open markets to the US President Trump pushed one of his priorities in negotiating trade deals on Wednesday, and it wasn't exactly trade deficits. He suggested the US would reduce tariffs in exchange for countries opening their markets, i.e., putting zero tariffs on American-made products. "I will always give up Tariff points if I can get major countries to OPEN THEIR MARKETS TO THE USA," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Another great power of Tariffs. Without them, it would be impossible to get countries to OPEN UP!!! ALWAYS, ZERO TARIFFS TO AMERICA!!!" Trump's social media post came after the European Union announced it was preparing countermeasures against US tariffs, including a 30% tariff on over $100 billion worth of goods. Meanwhile, Indonesia agreed to drop its tariffs on US goods to 0% for 99% of trade. Detroit Three automakers raise concerns about Japan trade deal A group representing General Motors (GM) Ford (F) and Chrysler-parent Stellantis (STLA) raised concerns on Tuesday about the US-Japan trade deal, which could cut tariffs on auto imports from Japan to 15% while leaving tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico at 25%. Reuters reports: Read more here. SAP falls as trade war concerns temper strong cloud growth Bloomberg News: Read more here. EU readies over $100B no-deal plan to match US 30% tariff The European Union announced on Wednesday it plans to hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. A European Commission spokesman said that the first part of countermeasures would combine an already approved list of tariffs on $24 billion of US goods and a previously proposed list on an additional on $83 billion of American products into one package. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Some headlines from Trump on tariffs this morning Via Bloomberg: Via Bloomberg: Trump: US will sell 'so much' beef to Australia President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. World's No. 3 automaker Kia takes $570M tariff hit in Q2 Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma shares dive after warning of full-year loss, US tariff impact Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. LG Energy Solution warns of slowing EV battery demand due to U.S. tariffs, policy headwinds Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Japan, US differ on how trade-deal profits will be split Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US business activity rises; tariffs fuel inflation concerns US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. It sounds like Trump now has a new minimum tariff rate: 15% President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. Keurig Dr. Pepper brewer sales volume drops 22%, CEO says tariff impacts 'will become prominent' Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. The EU's Trump insurance As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). Europe approves $100B-plus tariff backup plan A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. Trump tariffs wreaking havoc in Brazil's citrus belt Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. South Korea weighs US investment pledge to trim auto tariff Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Hyundai Motor warns of bigger hit from US tariffs after Q2 profit fall Hyundai Motor ( HYMTF) reported a drop in second-quarter operating profit on Thursday. The company cited US tariffs on vehicles and parts as the reason for the decline and that President Trump's trade war had weighed on its bottom line, the automaker also warned of a bigger impact in the current quarter. The group's South Korean shares fell 2% Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Hyundai Motor ( HYMTF) reported a drop in second-quarter operating profit on Thursday. The company cited US tariffs on vehicles and parts as the reason for the decline and that President Trump's trade war had weighed on its bottom line, the automaker also warned of a bigger impact in the current quarter. The group's South Korean shares fell 2% Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Trump lifts tariff baseline rate, warns countries face 15-50% range President Trump appears to have raised the minimum US tariff rate to 15%, up from 10%, as he prepares to set new reciprocal tariffs before his Aug. 1 deadline. 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. 'A couple of — we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.' Trump's latest statement that tariffs would begin at 15% is a new twist in his efforts to impose duties on almost every US trading partner. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement this week of 15%, which could be one reason why the US president has decided to increase the baseline tariff rate. The European Union said on Wednesday that it is getting ready to impose 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of US goods if no deal is made and if Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after the Aug. 1 deadline. Reports from The Financial Times on Wednesday have said that the EU and the US are now closing in on a 15% trade deal on European imports. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump appears to have raised the minimum US tariff rate to 15%, up from 10%, as he prepares to set new reciprocal tariffs before his Aug. 1 deadline. 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. 'A couple of — we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.' Trump's latest statement that tariffs would begin at 15% is a new twist in his efforts to impose duties on almost every US trading partner. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement this week of 15%, which could be one reason why the US president has decided to increase the baseline tariff rate. The European Union said on Wednesday that it is getting ready to impose 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of US goods if no deal is made and if Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after the Aug. 1 deadline. Reports from The Financial Times on Wednesday have said that the EU and the US are now closing in on a 15% trade deal on European imports. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. EU, US reportedly close in on trade deal The Financial Times reports: And more from Bloomberg: Read more here. The Financial Times reports: And more from Bloomberg: Read more here. Trump says he will trade 'Tariff points' for open markets to the US President Trump pushed one of his priorities in negotiating trade deals on Wednesday, and it wasn't exactly trade deficits. He suggested the US would reduce tariffs in exchange for countries opening their markets, i.e., putting zero tariffs on American-made products. "I will always give up Tariff points if I can get major countries to OPEN THEIR MARKETS TO THE USA," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Another great power of Tariffs. Without them, it would be impossible to get countries to OPEN UP!!! ALWAYS, ZERO TARIFFS TO AMERICA!!!" Trump's social media post came after the European Union announced it was preparing countermeasures against US tariffs, including a 30% tariff on over $100 billion worth of goods. Meanwhile, Indonesia agreed to drop its tariffs on US goods to 0% for 99% of trade. President Trump pushed one of his priorities in negotiating trade deals on Wednesday, and it wasn't exactly trade deficits. He suggested the US would reduce tariffs in exchange for countries opening their markets, i.e., putting zero tariffs on American-made products. "I will always give up Tariff points if I can get major countries to OPEN THEIR MARKETS TO THE USA," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Another great power of Tariffs. Without them, it would be impossible to get countries to OPEN UP!!! ALWAYS, ZERO TARIFFS TO AMERICA!!!" Trump's social media post came after the European Union announced it was preparing countermeasures against US tariffs, including a 30% tariff on over $100 billion worth of goods. Meanwhile, Indonesia agreed to drop its tariffs on US goods to 0% for 99% of trade. Detroit Three automakers raise concerns about Japan trade deal A group representing General Motors (GM) Ford (F) and Chrysler-parent Stellantis (STLA) raised concerns on Tuesday about the US-Japan trade deal, which could cut tariffs on auto imports from Japan to 15% while leaving tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico at 25%. Reuters reports: Read more here. A group representing General Motors (GM) Ford (F) and Chrysler-parent Stellantis (STLA) raised concerns on Tuesday about the US-Japan trade deal, which could cut tariffs on auto imports from Japan to 15% while leaving tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico at 25%. Reuters reports: Read more here. SAP falls as trade war concerns temper strong cloud growth Bloomberg News: Read more here. Bloomberg News: Read more here. EU readies over $100B no-deal plan to match US 30% tariff The European Union announced on Wednesday it plans to hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. A European Commission spokesman said that the first part of countermeasures would combine an already approved list of tariffs on $24 billion of US goods and a previously proposed list on an additional on $83 billion of American products into one package. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The European Union announced on Wednesday it plans to hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. A European Commission spokesman said that the first part of countermeasures would combine an already approved list of tariffs on $24 billion of US goods and a previously proposed list on an additional on $83 billion of American products into one package. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
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'You Can't Even Afford Rent': Ramsey Hosts Clash With Woman Trying To Buy An RV While $40K In Debt
"You can't even afford rent," career expert and "The Ramsey Show" co‑host Ken Coleman said in a recent episode. He addressed Rachel, a Dallas caller whose 2023 flood pushed her family into her parents' RV. Finance coach and fellow co‑host Jade Warshaw echoed the warning. The hosts insisted that wiping out $40,000 in debt must outrank buying another camper, no matter how daunting Texas rents appear for families today. Rough Math Meets Tough Love Rachel told the hosts that her household lives rent‑free on her parents' land, that she has pared her unsecured balances to $40,000 and that she has banked just $2,500. She brings home $70,000 and her husband earns $11 an hour while pursuing marine‑biology studies. Coleman said monthly rent should stay at $1,250 to preserve cash for repayments. Don't Miss: 7,000+ investors have joined Timeplast's mission to eliminate microplastics—now it's your turn to $100k+ in investable assets? – no cost, no obligation. "You should not stop paying down your debt to buy an RV," Coleman said. "You have no idea what it will cost," Warshaw said. Coleman urged moving closer to Rachel's workplace and pausing coursework so her husband can seek higher wages — steps the show's hosts often prescribe for callers in similar binds. Debt Data Mirrors Caller's Strain The couple's predicament mirrors broader figures. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in May pegged household balances at $18.2 trillion in Q1 and reported that mortgage balances climbed $199 billion. Freddie Mac said the 30‑year fixed rate averaged 6.72% for the week of July 10. Higher rates feed steeper obligations. Typical monthly debt payments reached $1,237, up 5% year over year, Experian found. The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed shelter costs rising 3.8% in June from a year earlier, pressuring renters already juggling larger credit card balances and pricier auto loans. Trending: This AI-Powered Trading Platform Has 5,000+ Users, 27 Pending Patents, and a $43.97M Valuation — With budgets squeezed, 64% of workers plan a second job or side gig this year, according to the American Staffing Association. Coleman's rent ceiling reflects those realities, emphasizing liquidity for repairs and emergencies instead of new liabilities. Map To Move Forward Coleman told the caller to "get your income up and change your lifestyle." He recommended relocating nearer to work, trimming transportation costs and delaying further study. Warshaw, who once eliminated $460,000 herself, said every extra dollar must attack principal until balances vanish. Ramsey Solutions' Baby Step 2 guide endorses the avalanche method, which targets the highest‑interest debts first and the snowball, which clears the smallest balances for quick wins. Read Next: Warren Buffett once said, "If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Many are using retirement income calculators to check if they're on pace — Image: Shutterstock UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? APPLE (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report TESLA (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report This article 'You Can't Even Afford Rent': Ramsey Hosts Clash With Woman Trying To Buy An RV While $40K In Debt originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Sign in to access your portfolio
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The Best High-Yield Dividend ETF to Own for the Next 10 Years
Key Points Companies must pass key tests to be included in the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF. This fund has averaged a solid dividend yield of over 3% for the past 10 years. Its 0.06% expense ratio is one of the lowest for an ETF in its category. 10 stocks we like better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF › Warren Buffett once said, "If you aren't willing to own a stock for 10 years, don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes." This applies to any stock, but especially dividend stocks, because most of the value typically comes from holding long term and taking advantage of the compound effect. To get an above-average dividend yield (compared to the S&P 500) while minimizing the risks that come with investing in individual stocks, investors should consider a dividend-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF). They can be the best of both worlds with good payouts and relative stability. If you're looking for a high-yield dividend ETF you can comfortably hold for a decade, look no further than the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEMKT: SCHD). It's one of the more popular dividend ETFs on the stock market, and for good reason. The fund's criteria help to vet companies beforehand The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF mirrors the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index. Unlike some dividend indexes that focus mainly on dividend yields, the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index has a more rigorous criteria for being included. To make the cut, a company must show the following things: At least 10 years of dividend payouts A history of annual dividend increases A strong balance sheet and consistent cash flow Due to the criteria, you can be sure the companies in this ETF are thoroughly vetted, which is important when you're investing long term and plan to hold on to the stock for at least a decade. Below are the Schwab fund's top 10 holdings and how much of the ETF they make up: Company Percentage of the ETF Texas Instruments 4.36% PepsiCo 4.24% Chevron 4.23% ConocoPhillips 4.15% Cisco Systems 4.08% Merck 4.00% Amgen 3.99% AbbVie 3.93% Bristol Myers Squibb 3.85% Coca-Cola 3.80% Data source: Charles Schwab. Percentages as of July 18. These may not be flashy companies, but they're reliable and have businesses set up for the long term. A history of consistently good dividend yields Dividend yields will inevitably fluctuate as stock prices change, but the Schwab fund has averaged a dividend of at least 3% over the past decade. This is a much better average than the S&P 500 during that span. If we assume that the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF maintains a yield of at least 3% (emphasis on "assume"), that could pay investors at least $30 per $1,000 invested annually. That won't make you the next Jeff Bezos, but it adds up over time, especially when reinvested to buy more shares. Unlike an individual company that has consistent dividend payout amounts, payouts from this ETF (and most dividend ETFs) fluctuate because companies pay out dividends at different times. Still, it should continue to fit the "high yield" criteria. Low fees ensure you keep more money to yourself An aspect of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF that shouldn't be overlooked is its low expense ratio of 0.06%, which works out to $0.60 per $1,000 invested. Although small differences in expense ratios may not seem like a big deal, they noticeably add up. For perspective, let's assume you invest $500 monthly into two ETFs, one with a 0.06% expense ratio and one with a 0.25% expense ratio. If you average 10% annual returns for 10 years, here's how your investments would stack up with each: Expense Ratio Amount Paid in Fees Investment Total 0.06% $887 $94,737 0.25% $3,664 $91,960 Data source: Author's calculations using the SEC compound interest calculator. What seems like a slight 0.19% difference on paper turns out to cost thousands more over a decade. That's money that could've been used to make more money, cover expenses, or put toward a personal purchase you've had in mind. Dividends are a great way to earn money in the stock market without depending solely on a stock or ETF's price appreciation. Do the experts think Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF is a buy right now? The Motley Fool's expert analyst team, drawing on years of investing experience and deep analysis of thousands of stocks, leverages our proprietary Moneyball AI investing database to uncover top opportunities. They've just revealed their to buy now — did Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF make the list? When our Stock Advisor analyst team has a stock recommendation, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is up 1,040% vs. just 182% for the S&P — that is beating the market by 858.13%!* Imagine if you were a Stock Advisor member when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,774!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,064,942!* The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Stefon Walters has positions in Coca-Cola. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Chevron, Cisco Systems, Merck, and Texas Instruments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The Best High-Yield Dividend ETF to Own for the Next 10 Years was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Stocks to watch next week: Microsoft, Apple, Shell, AstraZeneca and HSBC
Four more of the "Magnificent 7" are to due to report in the coming week, along with a raft of major companies across a range of sectors. Following on from Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) earnings this week, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are next up from the Mag 7 to report. On the London market, Shell (SHEL.L) is due to report, having already flagged weaker trading and production for its integrated gas division in the second quarter. Another FTSE 100-listed (^FTSE) giant reporting in the week ahead is pharmaceuticals company AstraZeneca (AZN.L), which has just pledged $50bn of investment in its US operations. Meanwhile, HSBC (HSBA.L) will be the latest UK-listed bank to report, following on from Lloyds (LLOY.L) and NatWest (NWG.L) this week. Here's more on what to look out for: Microsoft (MSFT) – Releases fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday 30 July Tech companies are continuing to cut jobs to reduce costs and streamline operations. This includes Microsoft (MSFT), which recently revealed that it was cutting another 9,000 jobs globally, not long after it axed around 6,000 roles in May. And in a memo to staff on Thursday, CEO Satya Nadella admitted that the recent layoffs had been "weighing heavily" on him. "These decisions are among the most difficult we have to make," he said. "They affect people we've worked alongside, learned from, and shared countless moments with — our colleagues, teammates, and friends." He acknowledged that by "every objective measure, Microsoft is thriving — our market performance, strategic positioning, and growth all point up and to the right." However, Nadella added: "This is the enigma of success in an industry that has no franchise value. Progress isn't linear. It's dynamic, sometimes dissonant, and always demanding." Despite the recent layoff announcements, Microsoft (MSFT) shares have climbed since the company released third quarter results at the end of April and are currently up 21% year-to-date. The company beat expectations in the third quarter, reporting revenue of $70bn (£52.1bn) compared to forecasts of $68.4bn, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Earnings per share of $3.46 also beat estimates of $3.21. Read more: Tesla disappoints while Alphabet tops expectations to kick off Mag 7 earnings Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Microsoft is the king of quietly going about its business and nailing execution along the way." He said cloud performance through Microsoft Azure was stronger than expected last quarter "and there could be some upside to guidance of 34-35% growth in next week's fourth-quarter results if it's been able to bring more supply online." "Margins will be in focus as eye-watering AI investment continues, but as supply/demand dynamics become more favourable there should be a natural tailwind," he said. Britzman added that there would also be "keen interest in how efforts to boost efficiency are progressing". "Recent reports suggest Microsoft has already saved over $500m in annual costs by integrating AI into its customer service functions," he said. "Some analysts think there's much more to come and will be keeping an eye out for any further commentary on AI driven cost savings." Apple (AAPL) – Releases third quarter results on Thursday 31 July Shares in Apple (AAPL) are down nearly 15% year-to-date, as tariff headwinds have weighed on the iPhone-maker. Apple CEO Tim Cook warned in a second-quarter earnings call at the beginning of May that tariffs were expected to add $900m to costs in the third quarter. Hargreaves Lansdown's Britzman said that this "sounds big, but is relatively small in the grand scheme of things". Apple's second-quarter results topped estimates, with revenue of $95.4bn compared with forecasts of $94.5bn, and EPS of $1.65 compared to expectations of $1.62. Read more: Stocks that are trending today Britzman said that investors will "hoping for more meat on the AI bone" in this latest set of results. "Apple's relatively disappointing developer conference had a distinct lack of news on the AI strategy and investors are rightly looking for some updates," he said. "Apple's approach to AI has fallen well short of what investors and consumers have come to expect from one of the world's leading brands," he added. "Apple Intelligence has so far failed to deliver the game changing experience that was promised, so investors should watch out any updates on new AI features and where Apple stands with Siri, another product with huge potential but poor execution." Shell (SHEL.L) – Releases second quarter results on Thursday 31 July Shares in oil major Shell (SHEL.L) fell in early July on the back of a trading update, in which the company warned that it expected to report lower trading and production results for its gas division in the second quarter. Shell lowered the top end of its production guidance for the integrated natural gas division to 900,000 to 940,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) for the quarter, compared with a range of 890,000 to 950,000 previously given. The upper end of its outlook for its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production was also lowered, to 6.4 to 6.8 million metric tons compared with a previous range of 6.3 to 6.9 million tons. Shell raised the lower end of its output guidance for its oil-focused upstream division, to a range of 1.66 million to 1.76 million boe/d, up from a previous projection of 1.56 million to 1.76 million boe/d. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio AJ Bell's investment experts Russ Mould and Dan Coatsworth said: "Shell's shares are down by around 6% in the past year and oil & gas producers is the seventh worst performer within the 39 sectors that make up the FTSE All-Share (^FTAS) thanks, in the main, to soggy oil prices. "At the same time, the share price seems to be doing its best to ignore a steady recovery in natural gas, although is still not actually that far below May 2024's all-time high." In the full second quarter results next week, they said that analysts are looking for pre-tax profit of $5.5bn, down from $9bn in the first three months of the year and $7.4bn a year ago. As for Shell's preferred metric of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), the benchmark is the $16.8bn figure the company reported in the second quarter of last year. "In terms of cash returns, Shell kept its quarterly dividend unchanged at 35.8 US cents in the first quarter (equivalent to a cash payout of $2.2bn)," said Mould and Coatsworth. "The oil major also ran a $3.5bn buyback in Q2 after a $3.3bn scheme in Q1 and analysts and shareholders will look to see what chief executive Wael Sawan offers for the third quarter." AstraZeneca (AZN.L) – Releases first half results on Tuesday 29 July Earlier this week, AstraZeneca (AZN.L) announced plans to invest $50bn in the US by 2030, as the threat of Trump's tariffs loom over the sector. AstraZeneca said in a statement on Monday that the cornerstone of this investment will be a new multi-billion dollar manufacturing facility in Virginia. In addition, the company said that the investment would go towards other facilities in the US, including a research and development centre in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as well as manufacturing facilities for cell therapy in Maryland and California. Read more: NatWest beats on profits and announces £750m share buyback AstraZeneca said that these investments would collectively help the company deliver its goal of reaching $80bn in total revenue by 2030, of which 50% is expected to be generated in the US. The announcement comes as the Trump administration carries out a Section 232 probe to determine which drug manufacturers are operating in countries that pose a national security threat to the US. Trump teased earlier this month that an announcement around pharmaceuticals tariffs would be coming soon, saying in a cabinet meeting that the rate could be as high as 200%. In terms of performance, AstraZeneca (AZN.L) posted a 10% increase in revenue in the first quarter to $13.6bn, which it said was driven by double-digit growth in oncology and biopharmaceuticals. Reported earnings per share of $1.88 were up 34% on the same quarter last year. At the time, AstraZeneca reiterated its guidance for the year, expecting total revenue to increase by a high single-digit percentage and core EPS to grow by a low double-digit percentage. HSBC (HSBA.L) – Releases first half results on Wednesday 30 July In the first quarter, HSBC (HSBA.L) posted a $3.2bn drop in pre-tax profits to $9.5bn compared with the same period last year, though this was well ahead of expectations of $7.8bn, according to Reuters. HSBC said the drop was primarily because of the net impact in the first quarter of last year of business disposals in Canada and Argentina. The bank said that contributors to profits in the latest quarter included strong performance in its wealth business, as well as in foreign exchange (forex), debt and equity markets. Net interest income (NII) – the gap between what it pays out to savers and receives from borrowers in interest – fell by $0.4bn to $8.3bn. Revenue fell by $3.1bn, or 15%, year-on-year to $17.6bn. Read more: IMF wants Bank of England to ease interest rates 'gradually' HSBC said its board had approved a first interim dividend of $0.10 per share and planned to launch a share buyback of up to $3bn, which it expected to begin shortly after its annual general meeting on 2 May and complete before its interim results announcement. Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: "The overhang from China and the tariff trade wars may not be central to its numbers next week from an investment viewpoint. Whereas HSBC had been moving towards becoming a business with a slavish reliance on interest rate movements and levels, the revised and increasing focus on the growth in affluent wealth, especially in Asia, is key to the new offering. "The group has been investing heavily in this move, giving HSBC higher, but more diversified income streams," he added. " "Apart from the longer-term potential for the key Chinese market, the group previously identified areas such as India and Vietnam as being some of the fastest growing economies at present, while the building economic connections between Asia and the Middle East, notwithstanding any geopolitical conflicts, are also emerging opportunities for HSBC with its sprawling footprint." Other companies reporting next week include: Monday 28 July Primary Health Properties (PHP.L) Science Group (SAG.L) Cranswick (CWK.L) Essilor Luxottica ( Heineken ( Porsche ( Tuesday 29 July Games Workshop (GAW.L) Croda (CRDA.L) ConvaTec (CTEC.L) Shaftesbury Capital (SHC.L) Morgan Sindall (MGNS.L) Greggs (GRG.L) Inchcape (INCH.L) Staffline (STAF.L) SThree (STEM.L) Forterra (FORT.L) Restore (RST.L) AG Barr (BAG.L) Tristel (TSTL.L) Advantest (6857.T) NEC (6701.T) L'Oréal ( Christian Dior ( Air Liquide ( Orange ( Ferrovial ( Philips ( Endesa ( Kering ( Logitech ( Brembo ( TF1 ( Visa (V) Procter & Gamble (PG) Merck (MRK) United Health (UEEC) Boeing (BA) Spotify (SPOT) Starbuck's (SBUX) Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Mondelez (MDLZ) UPS (UPS) Norfolk Southern (NSC) Electronic Arts (EA) Sofi Technologies (SOFI) Teradyne (TER) Qorvo (QRVO) Caesar's Entertainment (CZR) Wednesday 30 July Hargreaves Services (HSP.L) Rio Tinto (RIO.L) GSK (GSK.L) Bodycote (BOY.L) Hostelworld (HSW.L) Franchise Brands (FRAN.L) Fujitsu (6702.T) Kyocera (6971.T) Japan Airlines (9201.T) Alibaba (BABA, Prada ( Hermès ( Airbus ( UBS ( Banco Santander (BNC.L) Intesa SanPaolo ( Siemens Healthineers ( Danone ( Mercedes Benz ( Caixa Bank ( Adidas ( BASF ( Wolters Kluwer ( CapGemini ( Telefonica ( Leonardo ( Carrefour ( Krones ( Meta Platforms (META) Qualcomm (QCOM) ARM (ARM) LAM Research (LRCX) Altria (MO) Hess (HES) Carvana (CVNA) Ford (F) American Eagle (AEO) Hershey (HSY) GE Healthcare (GEHC) Kraft Heinz (KHC) eBay (EBAY) Smurfit Westrock (SW) Skyworks (SWKS) F5 (FFIV) Alamos Gold (AGI) MGM Resorts (MGM) Harley Davidson (HOG) Thursday 31 July British American Tobacco (BATS.L) Unilever (ULVR.L) London Stock Exchange (LSEG.L) Rolls-Royce (RR.L) SEGRO (SGRO.L) Standard Chartered (STAN.L) Haleon (HLN.L) Mondi (MNDI.L) Weir (WEIR.L) Endeavour Mining (EDV.L) Schroders (SDR.L) Drax (DRX.L) Elementis (ELM.L) Hammerson (HMSO.L) Spire Healthcare (SPI.L) Helios Towers (HTWS.L) Indivior (INDV.L) Sabre (SBRE.L) Coats (COA.L) Robert Walters (RWA.L) Nichols (NICL.L) Toyota Motor (7203.T) Hitachi (6501.T) Tokyo Electron (8035.T) Japan Tobacco (2914.T) Samsung Electronics ( Budweiser APAC ( Schneider Electric ( Sanofi ( ABInBev ( Ferrari (RACE) ENEL ( BBVA (BVA.L) Universal Music ( BMW ( St Gobain (COD.L) Subsea 7 ( Pirelli ( Clariant ( UCB ( Legrand ( Amadeus IT ( Société Générale ( ArcelorMittal ( Mediobanca ( Lufthansa ( AirFrance-KLM ( Amazon (AMZN) Mastercard (MA) AbbVie (ABBV) Stryker (SYK) Comcast (CMCSA) KLA-Tencor (KLAC) KKR (KKR) Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) Coinbase (COIN) CVS (CVS) Cigna (CI) Roblox (RBLX) Ingersoll-Rand (IR) Clorox (CLX) Baxter (BAX) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) Shake Shack (SHAK) Verona Pharma (VRNA) Azenta (AZTA) Friday 1 August International Consolidated Airlines (IAG.L) Intertek (ITRK.L) Melrose Industries (MRO.L) Pearson (PSON.L) IMI (IMI.L) KDDI (9433.T) TDK (6762.T) Suzuki Motor (7269.T) Nippon Steel (5401.T) Yamaha (YAMCF) Daimler Truck (DTG) AIB (AIBGY) Jeronimo Martins (JRONF) ConocoPhillips (COP) Kimberly-Clark (KMB) AngloGold Ashanti (AU) DraftKings (DKNG) Moderna (MRNA) Icahn Enterprises (IEP) Goodyear Tire (GT) You can read Yahoo Finance's full calendar here. Read more: UK set to lose 16,500 millionaires this year as non-dom status ends UK's rising debt cost puts Reeves and tax rises in spotlight London IPO fundraising slumps in blow to UK
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Markets are partying like it's 1999 and 2007, but a hangover may be ahead, Deutsche says
Deutsche Bank is warning of rising margin debt, signaling potential market overheating. New York Stock Exchange margin debt jumped 18.5% from April to June, the fifth-fastest increase since 1998. Margin debt spikes resemble patterns before the dot-com crash and the Global Financial Crisis. The stock market has been riding a wave of exuberance in recent months, brushing aside geopolitical and economic risks. But the high may be getting too intense, Deutsche Bank analysts warned in a Thursday note. Spikes in margin debt — the money investors borrow from brokers to buy stocks — are flashing warning signs eerily reminiscent of late 1999 and mid-2007, just before the dot-com crash and the global financial crisis. From April to June, New York Stock Exchange margin debt jumped 18.5%, marking the fifth-fastest increase since 1998. That puts it in the company of past euphoric episodes that ended in sharp market downturns. In June, investors borrowed a record high of just over $1 trillion from stock brokerages, according to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. They warned that the rate of increase in margin debt — a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite — has now started to look "too hot" by their metric, which poses a risk to credit performance. "While there is still room for market euphoria to potentially grow, we are ultimately getting closer to that point where market euphoria is becoming too hot to handle," they added. Though the rate of margin debt growth still lags the peaks seen during the tech bubble and the pre-financial crisis rally, the starting level is already elevated. As a share of GDP, margin debt is now higher than during the dot-com bubble, and near its all-time high reached in 2021, according to Deutsche's analysis. That suggests there may be limited room for additional upside before the market overheats. "The current rally we are experiencing is 'different' and 'hotter' than the many rallies we have experienced in 2023 and 2024," the Deutsche analysts wrote. They added that unexpected developments, including lower US import tariffs on trading partners and a dovish Federal Reserve, could release more "animal spirits" into the market over the next three to six months. However, the broader theme is that "the level and pace of margin debt growth today suggests market sentiment is starting to run too hot." Deutsche Bank's caution comes as analysts across Wall Street try to make sense of the current bull market, which has persisted despite risks ranging from inflation and trade tensions to global political uncertainty. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit fresh record highs again on Thursday. Jennifer Nash, an economic and market research analyst at financial data and analytics firm VettaFi, also examined the historical link between margin debt and market turning points. In her Wednesday review of data since 1997, she observed a potential relationship between sharp rises in margin debt and subsequent peaks in equities, as well as troughs in margin debt aligning with market bottoms. However, "there are too few peak-trough episodes in this overlay series to take the latest credit balance data as a leading indicator of a major selloff in US equities," she wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
