Court blocks Trump's tariffs, boosting stock futures and dollar

The Star

4 days ago

SINGAPORE: U.S. stock futures jumped and the dollar gained against safe-haven peers including the yen and Swiss franc on Thursday, after a U.S. federal court blocked President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect.
The Trump administration has appealed the ruling.
S&P 500 E-mini futures climbed 1.5% and the U.S. dollar rallied broadly against the euro, yen and Swiss franc.
Here are some quotes from market analysts:
JON WITHAAR, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE
"We are now at a point where many of the cautious investors who went underweight post Liberation Day are being forced back into markets, or stopped in, by the strong performance and the risk of missing out.
"We are maintaining a cautious but positive approach based around the idea that the eventual outcome for Asian based companies will not be a bad as initially feared."
PRASHANT NEWNAHA, SENIOR ASIA-PACIFIC RATES STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES
"The knee-jerk reaction for equities to rally and bond yields to back up on the tariff pause makes sense.
"However, with tariffs now in the appeal process and likely heading to the Supreme Court, uncertainty is back. Expect to see this lead to delays in investment and hiring. The pause also puts tariff revenue at risk which could bring deficit issues back on the radar. This should drive yields higher."
KEI OKAMURA, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, NEUBERGER BERMAN, TOKYO
"This ruling doesn't apply to Trump's sector-specific tariffs like autos and semiconductors, so for Japan specifically, it's a fairly neutral event.
"At the same time, we have this action by the U.S. judicial system to keep the administration's powers in check. The administration is increasingly coming at odds with the courts. This is going to continue to come up as an issue, and creates a lot of uncertainties.
"What companies need is direction, whether it's positive or negative. This stop-and-go is not helpful for businesses that need to make decisions that can take several years, even a decade, to implement.
"For central banks, this development just reinforces their wait-and-see stance."
KYLE RODDA, SENIOR FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE
"It's massive news. It's long been suggested that the emergency powers Trump has used to implement tariffs were unconstitutional and that the power to enact tariffs sits with Congress."
"It sets up a battle that will likely end up the Supreme Court now. It's a situation fraught with danger because the administration may ignore the court's ruling, potentially placing greater strain on U.S. institutions at a time of increased stress."
"However, should the markets get their way, the courts could delay and then deny these tariffs, removing one massive risk and undoubtedly stoking risk appetite."
SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES, TOKYO
"Initial reaction will be risk-on for risk assets such as equities. It's likely that we will see people buying USD as a funding currency expecting that global trade will re-ramp up."
"Given that trade talks have gone this far, (the United States) won't let countries go back to the pre-Trump era."
However, "it is good news that courts started to fight back against executive orders under rule of law."
FRANCES CHEUNG, HEAD OF FX AND RATES STRATEGY, OCBC, SINGAPORE
"For bonds and FX, the timing is convenient for an extension of the most recent trading momentum, where the dollar has already shown signs of rebounding and long-end bond yields have been facing upward pressure.
"That said, development on tariff and trade relations remains fluid. Investors may be reluctant to load heavy positions on either side of the trade."
GARY NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG
"The decision will fuel temporary risk-on sentiment in equities and lower bond yields as the market dials back inflation expectations driven by tariffs.
"However, this is not the end of the tariff story. There is no clarity as the legal battle will continue and it does not change the fact that Trump will find ways to reshape global trade order."
YUNOSUKE IKEDA, HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH, NOMURA, TOKYO
"At this point it's almost impossible to know if the tariffs will be completely unwound by this. But in the hypothetical situation that they are, it's natural to see dollar appreciation. Basically Trump's tariffs will lead to stagflation pressure on the U.S. economy, so reversing those tariffs would be a positive for the dollar."
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE
"The ruling removes an immediate overhang, even if it is not the final word on tariffs. Trump may still have scope to appeal or impose narrower, sector-specific tariffs, so policy uncertainty lingers.
"While the court ruling is a marginal positive for sentiment and helps to clear out the most bearish growth outlook bets, it does not remove uncertainty. Businesses still don't have clarity, and the policy path remains fluid.
We could see the market unwinding some of the tariff-related moves, such as the weaker USD and Gold, EUR, JPY and EM FX could pull back. Short-end yields may rise as recession fears ease."
MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX, BRISBANE
"It seems inevitable the Supreme Court will be ordered to weigh in on this one, which makes today's news more of a speedbump than a full-drawn conclusion. But for now, investors get a breather from the economic uncertainty they love to loathe."
RAY ATTRILL, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, NAB, SYDNEY
"The assumption is that the tariffs that have been announced and are in place will stay in place… Our assumption is President Trump will appeal this trade court's decision and he has the right to appeal... And then it will be up to the federal court and what happens there? I have no idea. So this may be an absolute storm in a teacup or potentially something more significant.
"I think it's way premature basically to say that this has the potential to reverse a lot of the moves that we've seen in the last couple of months." - Reuters