India-US trade deal, Q4 results among 6 factors likely to impact D-St activity this week
The Indian equity market experienced a significant rally, closing above 25,000 and recovering losses since October 2024, fueled by Operation Sindoor and positive market sentiment. Investors are closely watching corporate earnings, potential progress on the India-US trade deal, and foreign capital flows.
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
1. Corporate earnings
3. Foreign inflows
4. Technical outlook
5. Currency moves
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
6. Crude Oil impact
The Indian equity market witnessed a stellar rally this week with a more than 1,000 point gain on the benchmark Nifty 50. The Nifty managed to close above the 25,000 mark and recovered all the losses seen since October 2024.The week started with a bang, with rapid developments over the weekend on the border front that led to a stoppage in hostilities between India and Pakistan. Operation Sindoor, conducted by the Indian armed forces, was a decisive success that translated into improved market sentiment.The strength in the frontline indices translated into broader market gains with the BSE Midcap/Smallcap indices gaining 6.9%/9.2% respectively.'From a technical standpoint, the current chart structure suggests that the bullish momentum is likely to extend into the coming week. We expect Nifty to move toward 25,300 in the short term, with the potential to stretch further toward 25,600,' noted domestic brokerage firm SBI Securities.SBI Securities further noted that on the downside, the zone of 24,750-24,700 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline.Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:Next week, the markets will focus on the remainder of the earnings season.The market will also look out for any likely developments on the India-US trade deal.Participants will continue to monitor foreign capital flows, which have played a significant role in sustaining the current rally.Having broken out of a three-week consolidation, the Nifty is expected to sustain its upward momentum.'The index is now targeting levels of 25,200–25,600. On the downside, the earlier resistance at 24,800 is likely to act as immediate support, with a stronger support base at 24,400,' said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.The Indian Rupee appreciated marginally by 5 paise against the US dollar, closing at 85.50. This gain was supported by a weakening dollar index and easing crude oil prices.Rupee traded in a narrow range between 85.45 and 85.48 against the US dollar, reflecting a largely range-bound session. The dollar index hovered around 100.70, showing limited directional bias.'With no major triggers, the rupee is expected to continue trading within a broader range of 85.00 to 85.75 in the near term,' noted Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.Oil prices have inched higher to $62.3/barrel on the back of a weaker dollar. However, any sharp gains may be capped by the potential US-Iran deal and ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade and economic growth.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
28 minutes ago
- Mint
India must exploit the full potential of collaborative lending
India's financial ecosystem is evolving fast, driven by digitization and the need for inclusive credit. Within this landscape, collaborative lending has emerged as a promising way to bridge traditional credit gaps and bring formal finance closer to retail borrowers as well as small and medium businesses, especially the historically underserved. Among the various collaborative lending models available to banks and non-bank financial companies (NBFCs), two are most popular. One, co-lending arrangements between banks and NBFCs; and two, partnerships involving digital Lending Service Providers (LSPs). Though these models currently represent a small portion of India's total outstanding advances, their growth is far outpacing that of conventional lending. Synergy is at the heart of collaborative lending. Traditional banks and large NBFCs bring capital strength, regulatory compliance and reach. On the other hand, smaller NBFCs, fintech firms and digital platforms are agile, well connected to niche borrower segments and often excel in technology-driven origination and underwriting. Also Read: Banking on trust, losing billions: India's bank fraud epidemic needs urgent answers For example, a rural-focused NBFC that understands the borrowing behaviour of dairy farmers or small kirana shop owners in Tier 3 towns may have high-quality leads and underwriting insights, but may lack capital or the regulatory headroom to scale up. Joining forces with a larger bank or NBFC through co-lending would benefit both entities, while the borrower gets faster credit. LSP-based models are another key component. These digital platforms do not carry credit risk themselves, but play a vital role in onboarding, assessing and servicing customers. Their ability to use alternative data such as digital transaction patterns allows for the credit evaluation of customers outside the formal credit score system. Collaborative lending models typically involve a risk-sharing structure. In the bank-NBFC model, the bank usually funds 80% of the loan and the NBFC the rest. The NBFC often leads the origination and customer engagement process, while the bank brings capital and risk oversight. This structure aligns incentives aptly, provided that underwriting standards are agreed upon at the outset. In contrast, in LSP collaborations, the lending entity retains full credit exposure. The LSP's value lies in lowering acquisition and processing costs, improving the customer experience and enabling faster disbursement using digital workflows. Also Read: Needed: A hard policy reset to make Indian banks shape up In both models, borrowers benefit from quicker credit decisions, less rigid scorecard-based lending and better servicing. To scale up collaborative lending models responsibly, stakeholders must address a few challenges. Short-term operational hurdles include aligning the partners. Misalignment is a practical challenge, especially in co-lending arrangements. Differences in underwriting practices, exposure norms or documentation standards can create delays or even disqualify creditworthy borrowers. For example, a co-lender may enforce stricter income verification than the originator, creating friction. Such misalignment can reduce credit flows and lead to provisioning surprises. Customer service accountability is another operational hurdle. Regulations assign clear responsibility to the lender for grievance redressal, but the on-ground execution becomes complex when multiple entities interact with the borrower. This is especially true in rural or semi-urban areas where borrowers may not be able to distinguish between a bank and its LSP or NBFC partner. Without systems that clearly define servicing roles, response timelines and customer experience can deteriorate. Also Read: Don't let uneven access to credit get in the way of Viksit Bharat A longer-term systematic concern is data security and governance. Collaborative lending involves sharing sensitive borrower data across systems. This becomes especially concerning when lightly regulated entities are involved. Strong data encryption, consent protocols and audit trails must be in place. To realize the full potential of collaborative lending, several developments are necessary. In the regulatory context, it would help to have more detailed guidance on co-lending governance, data-sharing protocols and customer-servicing standards. A framework that outlines shared responsibilities and escalation norms could improve execution and accountability. Technological innovation will also be key. Innovations such as real-time co-lending APIs, AI-driven underwriting and distributed ledger technology hold the potential to increase the speed of disbursement, reduce operating costs as well as underwriting errors, and increase confidence among co-lenders. Industry-level standardization—for example, common onboarding protocols or interoperable APIs between regulated entities—would help further reduce onboarding friction and enhance scale. The potential for collaborative lending in India goes well beyond credit expansion—it is about enabling financial dignity and access for millions of people and small businesses. For banks, it is an opportunity to grow without building new last-mile infrastructure. For fintech firms and smaller NBFCs, it offers access to capital and credibility. For borrowers, it means faster and fairer credit. We must not view these partnerships as mere business arrangements. They are ecosystems that thrive when all participants are aligned with the purpose. The author is partner, banking and capital markets leader, Deloitte India.
India.com
30 minutes ago
- India.com
Another good news for Mukesh Ambani in 15 days, this company receives approval to launch…, is set to….
A joint venture of Mukesh Ambani's Reliance has received second big good news in 15 days. Jio BlackRock Investment Advisers Pvt Ltd, a 50:50 joint venture between Jio Financial Services Ltd (JFSL) and US-based BlackRock Inc, announced on Wednesday that it has received regulatory approvals from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) to begin operations as an investment adviser. This follows the announcement on May 27, 2025, of regulatory approval from Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for Jio BlackRock Asset Management Private Ltd to commence operations as an investment manager for its mutual fund business in India. With this license, Jio BlackRock Investment Advisers will now focus on developing a digital-first product designed to meet the evolving needs of investors, Jio BlackRock Investment Advisers said in a statement. Jio BlackRock Investment Advisers also announced the appointment of Marc Pilgrem as its Managing Director (MD) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO). As Indian investors increasingly seek personalized, insight-driven financial solutions, this joint venture is poised to democratize access to world-class advisory services, JFSL MD and CEO Hitesh Sethia said. 'We are confident that Jio BlackRock will redefine the future of wealth creation in India by empowering investors with global expertise and local relevance,' he said. Jio BlackRock Investment Advisers, in a statement, said that with this license, the firm is now focused on developing 'digital-first' products to meet the growing needs of investors. (With Inputs From PTI)
Mint
30 minutes ago
- Mint
India a Bright Spot: HSBC recommends five stocks amid global volatility
HSBC Global Investment Research has called India a 'refuge for investors' in the current global environment marked by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. In its latest strategy note, the global brokerage highlighted the Indian market's relative strength and steady earnings growth while naming five stocks it believes can outperform. HSBC's picks—Godrej Consumer Products, UPL, GAIL, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, and HDFC Life—reflect its focus on companies with structural or idiosyncratic growth triggers even as it maintains a neutral stance on Indian equities overall. HSBC said its proprietary data showed Asia and GEM funds are beginning to rebuild positions in India, gradually reducing their underweight exposure. The firm noted that a weaker US dollar and easing inflation conditions could further support foreign portfolio inflows into Indian equities in the coming months. Despite global headwinds and cautious investor sentiment, HSBC said India remains relatively well-positioned due to domestic resilience. It set a 2025-end Sensex target of 82,240, maintaining a 'Neutral' rating from an Asian portfolio perspective. 'We are neutral on India from the Asian perspective,' HSBC said, 'but we see it as a relative refuge in the current environment.' In a market where valuations appear elevated, HSBC said it prefers companies with company-specific strengths that offer good growth visibility. Among its top five picks: Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL): HSBC praised the company's strong innovation pipeline and market share gains in the home insecticides segment. UPL: The brokerage expects UPL to surprise positively on growth, margin recovery, and debt reduction—factors that could drive a re-rating. GAIL: Despite underperformance so far in 2025, HSBC sees structural benefits from the rising demand for clean energy. A possible gas tariff revision and ongoing pipeline projects could act as catalysts. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank and HDFC Life: Both are set to benefit from an easing interest rate environment. HSBC said policy support from the central government and RBI should aid domestic financial players, with Ujjivan and HDFC Life well positioned to capitalise on improved liquidity. On the earnings front, HSBC noted that March quarter surprised positively. FTSE India (ex-commodities) EPS grew 10 percent year-on-year, up from single-digit growth over the previous four quarters. Industrials, telecom, and healthcare sectors delivered strong performance, while consumer discretionary EPS rose 14 percent due to strength in retail and services. However, FMCG struggled with soft demand and heightened competition, and the banking and IT sectors posted modest growth of just 5–6 percent YoY. Despite the positive quarter, HSBC said the path to a full recovery remains uneven. FactSet consensus EPS estimates for 2025 have already been revised downward to 11 percent, and risks remain due to weak urban consumption, sluggish private capex, and policy uncertainty in the US that could affect IT services exports. 'Rate cuts may also hurt banks' margins,' HSBC warned, noting that banks form a significant weight in the Indian equity indices. Overall, while HSBC maintains a neutral outlook on Indian equities, it believes India remains a relatively strong investment destination compared to other emerging markets. With supportive policy moves and ongoing foreign inflows, the country offers select opportunities for investors. HSBC's latest top picks—Godrej Consumer, UPL, GAIL, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, and HDFC Life—underscore its preference for quality names with differentiated growth potential in a still-cautious environment. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
