Anthony Albanese now has cover to follow Keir Starmer on Palestinian state

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2 days ago

He may be hounded daily for not having yet secured a meeting with Donald Trump, but there's another leader the prime minister has no trouble reaching on speed dial.
"I was in contact with Prime Minister Starmer overnight," Anthony Albanese revealed yesterday, unprompted, when asked about his British counterpart's move to recognise a Palestinian state. "I expect to be speaking with Keir in the coming couple of days as well".
Albanese wants it known he is in close consultation with Starmer on this issue.
There can be no doubt Albanese is growing increasingly alarmed at the situation in Gaza, exasperated at Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's denial that starvation is happening, and will be influenced by the British prime minister's move.
At the same time, Albanese wants Australia to make its own decision. He does not want to be seen to move only because the French and British leaders have done so in recent days.
Nor is he under anything like the domestic pressure Starmer has faced on this issue. More than 250 British MPs, including over half the British Labour caucus signed a letter calling for immediate Palestinian recognition.
Here, the pressure within the Labor caucus has been building, but not nearly to that degree.
Former minister Ed Husic remains the only Labor MP publicly calling for immediate recognition.
"Moral momentum cannot be ignored" says Husic. "It's critical we back (France and the UK) in and build a sense of international momentum."
Many others within Labor share the goal but aren't in such a rush.
"It's a question of when and how, not if," said one cabinet minister from Labor's Left faction yesterday, speaking on the condition of anonymity. There's broad support within caucus for recognition, but "no clamour to move now".
Another, from the Right, agreed and noted there's now "a sense of relief" across the party that the direction on recognition is clear.
Albanese is operating something of a release valve for the caucus pressure by steadily building the case for what appears to be an inevitable step towards recognition.
His criticism of Israel has gradually hardened, to the point where on Sunday he accused the Netanyahu government of breaching international law.
This is combined with highlighting, where possible, hopes for reform on the Palestinian side, however tenuous these signs may be.
Albanese yesterday pointed to a joint statement co-signed by 15 countries, including Australia, welcoming recent commitments from Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, made in a June 10 letter to French President Emanuel Macron.
In the letter, Abbas condemned the October 7 attacks, called for remaining hostages to be freed, the dismantling of Hamas, elections to be held, and accepted "the principle of a demilitarised Palestinian State".
All of this would be music to the ears of Australia and others. A dream outcome. Albanese called the Abbas commitments "a very significant step forward".
The only problem is Abbas's authority to speak on behalf of Palestinians when it comes to the future of Gaza is far from clear.
The Palestinian Authority has not governed Gaza since 2007. Abbas has clung to power for more than 20 years in the West Bank and cancelled his own elections in 2021. He is seen as deeply unpopular amongst Palestinians and viewed with suspicion.
Still, the desire to promote Abbas' views, if not Abbas himself, is understandable for leaders who want an end to the war and progress towards a two-state solution.
"Sometimes out of a crisis comes a moment of opportunity to actually advance forward in a real way," Albanese said yesterday.
It's an optimistic view, to be sure.
Within Israel, it's not just Netanyahu who has hardened his stance against a two-state solution since the October 7 attacks. A Pew Research Centre poll published last month showed only 21 per cent of Israelis believed a peaceful coexistence between Israel and a future Palestinian state was possible, a new low.
The US also remains firmly opposed to recognising a Palestinian state. Trump expressed frustration with Israel over aid deliveries this week but still believes recognising a Palestinian state would amount to "rewarding Hamas".
Trump disagreed with Starmer's move yesterday but was not overly critical.
Australia now has some cover to follow the UK and France without fearing a backlash from the US. It might not help the relationship with Trump but wouldn't necessarily derail it.
Albanese also has clear support within his caucus.
The prime minister has repeatedly set down the conditions he wants met, including no role for Hamas in running Gaza, and assurances for Israel's security. It's now a question of how and when Albanese can be convinced that's going to happen.
David Speers is national political lead and host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.