Collapse yarn leaves out tech factor in Ukraine's sea and land wins

Asia Times

27-02-2025

About a year ago, a media narrative that Ukraine was collapsing militarily took hold globally. That common wisdom surely played a major role in convincing US President Donald Trump that he and his administration could afford to treat Ukraine and its president as roadkill.
The drumbeat of doom, once it became standard fare in mainstream media outlets, all but drowned out the treble notes of the counter-narrative depicting Ukraine as a scrappy underdog that keeps employing techno-judo along with grit as it throws its far-bulkier foe to the mat time and time again.
Funny thing, though, the Ukrainian wins by no means ceased. As a Washington Post op-ed by the National Review's Jim Garaghty notes this week:
In December, Ukrainian soldiers near Lyptsi, about six miles from the Russian border in the Kharkiv region, launched a successful nothing-but-drones assault on a Russian position.
Based on interviews with military officers, the Ukraine-based Counteroffensive news site reported on what it called a 'first attack of its kind,' involving 'dozens of FPV, recon, turret-mounted, and [self-detonating] drones all working in tandem on the ground and in the air.'
Picture being a Russian soldier, seeing the enemy advancing upon you, and there's not a single human being among them.
Some countries seeing themselves as militarily vulnerable have been paying attention to such achievements, despite others' susceptibility to the fake 'Ukraine collapse' narrative. Taiwan is one country that is impressed, as we shall see below. Others are European, as Garaghty found when he attended this month's Defense Tech Innovations Conference in Kyiv:
With the United States' continued role as the guarantor of European security now in doubt, given recent statements by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the good news for Ukraine is that defense ministries in Europe — primarily from Nordic countries and the Baltics — are in attendance and absorbing the dizzying pace of change in battlefield technology
Meanwhile, as for Russia, The Economist in an article entitled 'How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump' says in its February 18 issue that the Russian gains mostly
were in the first weeks of the war. In April 2022, following Russia's retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6 percent of Ukrainian territory; its casualties (dead and wounded) were perhaps 20,000. Today Russia occupies 19.2 percent and its casualties are 800,000, reckon British sources. … More than half of the 7,300 tanks [Russia] had in storage are gone. Of those that remain, only 500 can be reconditioned quickly. By April, Russia may run out of its T-80 tanks. Last year it lost twice as many artillery systems as in the preceding two years. … The reallocation of resources from productive sectors to the military complex has fueled double-digit inflation. Interest rates are 21 percent.
A February 13 tweet on X/Twitter claimed that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had just said in Brussels that the United States was unprepared to face Russia – particularly at sea. In fact, the official transcript of the press conference does not back the claim that Hegseth said that, but the tweet garnered over eight million views – including a retweet by one Ukrainian activist who boasted:
There is only one strong maritime power in the world. And that is Ukraine. Serhii sternenko
That is a major exaggeration, of course. But it's a fact that Ukraine (which – don't forget – is still fighting the Russian invaders on land and sea after three years) has forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet into retreat – primarily through the use of sea drones.
Those drones have also prevented Russia from enforcing a blockade on Ukrainian ports, ensuring the continued export of grain to global markets.
The battle of the Black Sea has become one of Ukraine's most striking successes in its war against Russia. Despite lacking a formal navy, Ukraine has forced the Russian Black Sea fleet into continuous retreat, pushing it to relocate key assets far from occupied Crimea.
Leveraging domestic-driven innovation and tactical ingenuity, Ukraine offers a blueprint to other David countries facing Goliath foes. Baltic states that fear they might be next on Vladimir Putin's invasion menu are very much aware of that – and so are Taiwanese concerned with countering a future Chinese invasion.
'We don't have as many human resources as Russia,' said Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine's deputy minister of digital transformation. 'They fight, they die, they send more people, they don't care – but that's not how we see war. For Ukraine's leaders, rapid technological innovation remains a top priority.'
Ukraine's ability to outmaneuver Russia, arguably on land and beyond doubt at sea, hinges on relentless innovation. With Moscow introducing new weapons roughly every six months, Kyiv has had to develop and deploy countermeasures just as quickly.
According to Kateryna Bezsudna, co-founder and CEO of Defense Builder, a Ukrainian defense tech startup accelerator, this cycle forces continuous adaptation and the rapid deployment of asymmetric solutions.
Russia expected a swift win, envisioning a victory parade in Kyiv just weeks after launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Instead, as the war drags on, conditions have worsened for Moscow – most noticeably in the Black Sea.
At the war's outset, Ukraine's navy was virtually nonexistent, having lost most of its fleet when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Its only major warship, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, was scuttled by Ukrainian forces in February 2022 to prevent its capture.
Yet, through asymmetric warfare – naval drones, coastal strikes and aerial attacks –Ukraine has transformed the Black Sea battlefield, forcing Russia into retreat and reclaiming strategic control over its waters.
Ukraine has focused on rebuilding its navy with a fleet of drones, making sea drones a cornerstone of its Black Sea strategy. When Russia attempted to blockade Ukrainian shipping, Ukraine quickly responded with sea drone strikes to neutralize the threat. Even after Russia's navy retreated from occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland, Ukrainian sea drones continued to pursue and strike Russian vessels.
In August 2023, Ukraine launched a sea drone attack on Russia's Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, nearly 600 km from Odesa. By deploying unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), Ukraine has been able to inflict damage on Russian naval assets while minimizing risk to its personnel.
Ukraine's sea drones have been engaging and striking Russian helicopters over the Black Sea. Ukrainian Magura V5 drones armed with heat-seeking missiles shot down two Russian Mi-8 helicopters and damaged a third off the coast of Crimea, Kyiv said, adding that it was the first time a naval drone had successfully targeted and knocked out an aircraft.
The Ukrainian military has increasingly modified its sea drones for multi-role capabilities, adding missile launchers and other weapons to enhance their effectiveness. On January 5, Ukrainian USVs also launched kamikaze drones from the Black Sea, striking Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Kherson Oblast, each valued at $15–$20 million.
Serhii Kuzan, chair of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and former adviser to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, noted that Russia is increasingly paranoid about protecting the symbolic Kerch Bridge from Ukrainian sea drones, allocating significant resources to its defense.
'Russia is using all available methods to safeguard the Crimean Bridge from destruction. This illegally constructed structure in temporarily occupied Crimea is critically important to Vladimir Putin and Russian logistics,' Kuzan explains. The Kerch Bridge, which connects the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula to the Russian mainland. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
'Moscow has built an extensive defense system around the bridge, including protection from both air and sea threats,' Kuzan notes. 'The primary challenge for the Ukrainian Armed Forces lies in the variety of air defense systems deployed. The Russians have established multiple layers of such defenses around the bridge.'
'Russia has fortified its defenses on the water with barges and boom barriers, along with constant naval and aerial patrols,' Kuzan explains. 'Helicopters, in particular, have been effective for some time against Ukraine's naval drones.' But that is changing now as Ukrainian sea drones have begun taking out Russian helicopters.
Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said: 'Ukraine and many other navies around the world are incorporating different USV technologies and tactics into their operations. It's very likely that lessons learnt by Ukraine in this war when it comes to the use of different USVs will inform how the future Ukrainian navy will shape up.'
The war in the Black Sea highlights how an asymmetrical strategy can reshape the balance of power. Despite having virtually no fleet, Ukraine has managed to cripple Russia's navy using limited resources.
Grant Shapps, a former British Defense Secretary, called out Russian losses in the Black Sea last year: 'Putin's continued illegal occupation of Ukraine is exacting a massive cost on Russia's Black Sea Fleet which is now functionally inactive. Russia has sailed the Black Sea since 1783 but is now forced to constrain it's fleet to port. And even there Putin's ships are sinking!'
Ukraine's continued innovation of drone warfare at sea is increasing pressure on the ground. Here's the latest from Crimea: 'An alert has been declared over the threat of unmanned surface vessel (USV) attacks near Cape Tarkhankut. Russian forces claim that the Ukrainian military is launching FPV drones from these vessels.'
'NATO, with its many maritime nations, includes states with limited naval forces – such as the Baltic countries,' Kuzan said. 'Ukraine's experience serves as an example of how these nations could enhance their capabilities to counter potential Russian aggression in the Baltic Sea.'
Beyond smaller states, Ukraine's use of naval drones also presents critical insights for larger naval powers, which must now reassess their strategies due to emerging technologies. 'This war is also a lesson for larger naval powers, emphasizing the need to update their doctrines for naval warfare by analyzing the modern use of naval drones,' Kuzan explained. 'Understanding the advantages and threats of these technologies will allow them to effectively deploy or counter enemy naval drones in future conflicts.'
Russia itself is trying to copy Ukrainian tactics.
Taiwan has been closely watching Ukraine's innovations – and vice versa.
'Taiwan already benefits from US support and has its own advanced defense industry, which is testing both surface and underwater maritime drones,' Kuzan noted.
One example is Taiwan's Smart Dragon underwater drone, which is reportedly equipped with torpedo systems. Taiwan's new 'Smart Dragon' unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). Image: X Screengrab
'Incorporating torpedoes into Ukrainian maritime drones could be the next step in their development,' Kuzan said. Taiwan excels in hardware production but struggles with design and system integration. However, ongoing joint ventures with US firms and government-backed initiatives aim to bridge these gaps.
Kuzan also suggested that deeper military cooperation between Ukraine and Taiwan could be mutually beneficial. 'If the opportunity and necessity arise, Ukraine could potentially sell to, or exchange its military technologies with, Taiwan,' he said. 'This would allow both countries to enhance their capabilities.'
Taiwan faces a fundamentally different security landscape compared with Ukraine – particularly due to its legislative politics and defense posture – according to Treston Wheat, chief geopolitical officer at Insight Forward, a geopolitical risks consultancy, and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.
'The legislature leans more pro-Chinese and is planning to cut the defense budget in 2025,' Wheat explained. 'Additionally, much of Taiwan's defense strategy has focused on holding off China long enough for the US to establish its position.'
This hesitation extends to asymmetric warfare tactics, an area where Ukraine has excelled in countering a larger adversary. 'Taiwan is significantly less inclined than Ukraine to pursue an asymmetric approach,' Wheat noted. 'While there are valuable lessons from Ukraine on integrating modern technologies like drones, they are unlikely to be implemented.'
Yet, as Taiwan prepares for a potential conflict with China, analysts believe that embracing asymmetric warfare and drone technology is crucial—a lesson reinforced by Ukraine's successes in the Black Sea. A recent report from the Center for Naval Analyses emphasized the importance of drones in countering superior forces, urging Taiwan to dramatically scale up its production of unmanned systems.
While Taiwan has begun expanding its drone capabilities—forming a National Drone Team and developing an unmanned 'kill chain' — its projected stock of 3,200 drones by 2028 pales in comparison with Ukraine's 100,000 drones acquired in 2023 and its one-million-drone production goal for 2024. Kevin Pollpeter, the report's lead author, stresses that Taiwan must think bigger, particularly by integrating uncrewed surface and underwater vessels to disrupt a Chinese amphibious assault.
Taiwan may not yet fully embrace the asymmetric strategies that have defined Ukraine's success in the Black Sea, but the lessons are clear. As unmanned systems reshape naval warfare, smaller states confronting powerful adversaries must recognize that innovation under pressure—rather than sheer force – will be key to their survival, just as Ukraine has demonstrated to the world.
Meanwhile, Whatever comes of war-ending negotiations, starting with President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington scheduled for Febuary 28, it's important to remember that Ukraine has not been beaten. Far from it, the country is still fighting valiantly three years after Putin's invasion.
David Kirichenko is a Ukrainian-American reporter-activist and security engineer who carries along bags of donated weaponry when he embeds with Ukrainian troops at the frontlines. He's also an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. Follow him on X /Twitter @DVKirichenko The author with members of the Ukrainian unit Yasni Ochi after returning from a night drone bombing mission in Chasiv Yar last summer. Source: David Kirichenko
This is an updated and expanded version of an article published earlier by Pacific Forum.