Latest news with #Counteroffensive
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Counteroffensive: Can Ukraine's military survive without Elon Musk's Starlink systems?
After a busy day at work as a software engineer, Oleg Kutkov returns to his apartment in Kyiv. He steps out onto the balcony — but not to smoke or water the flowers. Oleg's balcony is a workshop. There, he repairs Starlink terminals damaged at the front and sends them back to soldiers. "At first, I used to work with Starlink as a hobby. But when I fix them now, I realize it's not just a hobby — it's the main means of communication at the front," Oleg told the Counteroffensive. Hundreds of thousands of people in Ukraine — including The Counteroffensive's Kyiv office — depend on Starlink satellites, which have replaced internet networks damaged during the war. Civilians in hospitals, schools, and frontline areas all rely on it — as does the military along the entire front. But U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk see Starlink as leverage over the Ukrainian government. Starlink is part of Musk's company, SpaceX, and although Ukraine and its partners pay for the system's operation, Musk can theoretically shut it off at any time. The centrality of Starlink to Ukraine's military success underscores just how significant a geopolitical figure Musk has become — and how the world's richest man now wields influence far beyond his net worth. The trajectory of the war, in many ways, lies in the hands of one person. Ukrainian soldiers understand there are no full-fledged alternatives to Starlink, but they are prepared to fight without it — because they have no choice. That might mean relying more on traditional methods of communication, including radios and cellular networks. Satellite systems from other companies may help, but they're less efficient and can't fully cover the front. Since childhood, Oleg, now 36, has enjoyed taking apart and reassembling electronics. So when he learned about Starlink in 2021, it immediately piqued his interest. He ordered his first terminal from the United States in late 2021 — before Starlink service was even available in Ukraine. His goal was to disassemble the terminal and see how it worked. He believes his was likely the first Starlink terminal in the country. A few months later, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In late February 2022, Ukraine asked Musk to activate Starlink access. Russia was targeting communication towers and knocking out access to traditional systems. Musk — who can both give and take away — responded within hours. He announced that Starlink service was active in Ukraine and that the first terminals were on their way. 'I know Starlink is not reliable — SpaceX has already shut it down several times. But currently, there are no full-fledged alternatives.' Oleg saw Musk's tweet and decided to try activating his terminal. With help from his SpaceX contacts, it worked. He believes it was one of the first active Starlink terminals in Ukraine. 'It allowed me to at least somehow stay in touch and get some news,' Oleg said of his experience in Kyiv at the beginning of the invasion. 'Where there was no connection due to Russian attacks, it appeared thanks to Starlink.' While Musk supported Ukraine early in the war, he later started to undermine the Ukrainian military's operations. In September 2023, biographer Walter Isaacson claimed Musk had secretly disabled Starlink service near occupied Crimea the previous year to disrupt a Ukrainian attack on the Russian fleet. The story was later confirmed by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence. In February 2023, SpaceX restricted Starlink's use in Ukraine — specifically limiting its role in drone operations. Musk said the decision was made 'to prevent World War III.' The restrictions were eventually lifted. More recently, threats to shut down Starlink surfaced again when Trump returned to the presidency. According to Reuters, Trump administration officials warned Ukraine they would cut off Starlink access unless Ukraine agreed to a mining deal. The deal remains unsigned. Musk also clashed with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski over Starlink. Although Musk later tweeted that he would never cut access, there is lingering skepticism about whether his word can be trusted. Ukraine remains vulnerable to the possibility that Musk could pull the plug on Starlink at any time. As a result, the government is seeking alternatives. 'I know Starlink is not reliable — SpaceX has already shut it down several times. But currently, there are no full-fledged alternatives. All other options are worse,' Oleg said. With Starlink, Ukraine's military can coordinate operations, transmit front-line data, and monitor the battlefield — even when there's no mobile network coverage. It also enables drone reconnaissance and precision strikes. 'Communication (via Starlink) is the basis of command and control,' said Yaroslav Honchar, head of the nonprofit Aerorozvidka, which promotes robotic military technology. 'If there is communication, then there is control, and then can we talk about offense, defense, and everything else.' Although Starlink isn't officially available to the Russian army, reports suggest some Russian units have used it anyway. Still, the system has its flaws. Starlink terminals aren't designed for long-term use under battlefield conditions. They often break under extreme weather or combat stress. The most common issue Oleg sees is shrapnel damage. But he also fixes terminals that have been flooded in trenches, chewed by rodents, or tossed from moving vehicles. 'There was a case when I drained 5 liters of water from two new terminals. I dried them out, repaired them, and they started working,' Oleg said. Ukraine's growing interest in alternatives is driven by a desire to reduce its dependence on Musk. According to the Financial Times, the European Union is currently in talks with four companies to possibly replace Starlink for Ukraine's armed forces: SES (Luxembourg), Hisdesat (Spain), Viasat (United Kingdom), and Eutelsat/OneWeb (France). The first three rely on older satellite technology, with satellites orbiting around 30,000 kilometers above Earth — compared to Starlink's 500 to 800 kilometers. This affects latency and data speed. Eutelsat/OneWeb's satellites are closer, orbiting around 1,200 kilometers, and are more comparable to Starlink in coverage. But the size of their network is limited — just 500 to 600 satellites versus Starlink's more than 6,000. Other alternatives are more rudimentary. During the Battle of Kursk, Ukrainian forces used radio and wired communications, since Starlink doesn't work in Russia. 'We can successfully defend the country without Starlink. We did it at the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, and we can do it now," said Volodymyr Stepanets of the Narodnyi Starlink initiative, which repairs and supplies terminals. "It is more difficult, more expensive... but it is possible." Stepanets also argues that cutting off Ukraine would hurt Musk, too. He said more than 150,000 Starlink terminals are currently in Ukraine, generating roughly $15 million per month in subscription fees. 'As a country, we are Musk's largest customer on this continent. Probably, the number of Starlink terminals in Ukraine is higher than in the whole of Europe,' he said. The Counteroffensive contacted the Ministry of Digital Transformation and Starlink's Ukraine office to confirm the number of terminals in use. As of publication, neither had responded. Oleg has worked on Starlink Gen 2 terminals, which he says have a vulnerability in field use. One connector used to link the equipment is prone to moisture intrusion and often fails. To fix the issue, Oleg substituted a connector from a different company that was more water-resistant. After testing it, he recorded a video tutorial to help others do the same. Like many Ukrainians, he adapted. He improvised. He taught others how to make do—and how to make things better. Under pressure, Ukraine's creativity shines. And it will continue to shine, even if Elon Musk turns off the lights. Editor's Note: This article was published by the twice-weekly newsletter 'The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak' on April 9, 2025, and has been re-published by the Kyiv Independent with permission. To subscribe to The Counteroffensive, click here. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. Submit an Opinion Read also: Trump's tariffs risk disaster while bipartisan Russia strategy offers hope We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. 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Asia Times
27-02-2025
- Politics
- Asia Times
Collapse yarn leaves out tech factor in Ukraine's sea and land wins
About a year ago, a media narrative that Ukraine was collapsing militarily took hold globally. That common wisdom surely played a major role in convincing US President Donald Trump that he and his administration could afford to treat Ukraine and its president as roadkill. The drumbeat of doom, once it became standard fare in mainstream media outlets, all but drowned out the treble notes of the counter-narrative depicting Ukraine as a scrappy underdog that keeps employing techno-judo along with grit as it throws its far-bulkier foe to the mat time and time again. Funny thing, though, the Ukrainian wins by no means ceased. As a Washington Post op-ed by the National Review's Jim Garaghty notes this week: In December, Ukrainian soldiers near Lyptsi, about six miles from the Russian border in the Kharkiv region, launched a successful nothing-but-drones assault on a Russian position. Based on interviews with military officers, the Ukraine-based Counteroffensive news site reported on what it called a 'first attack of its kind,' involving 'dozens of FPV, recon, turret-mounted, and [self-detonating] drones all working in tandem on the ground and in the air.' Picture being a Russian soldier, seeing the enemy advancing upon you, and there's not a single human being among them. Some countries seeing themselves as militarily vulnerable have been paying attention to such achievements, despite others' susceptibility to the fake 'Ukraine collapse' narrative. Taiwan is one country that is impressed, as we shall see below. Others are European, as Garaghty found when he attended this month's Defense Tech Innovations Conference in Kyiv: With the United States' continued role as the guarantor of European security now in doubt, given recent statements by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the good news for Ukraine is that defense ministries in Europe — primarily from Nordic countries and the Baltics — are in attendance and absorbing the dizzying pace of change in battlefield technology Meanwhile, as for Russia, The Economist in an article entitled 'How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump' says in its February 18 issue that the Russian gains mostly were in the first weeks of the war. In April 2022, following Russia's retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6 percent of Ukrainian territory; its casualties (dead and wounded) were perhaps 20,000. Today Russia occupies 19.2 percent and its casualties are 800,000, reckon British sources. … More than half of the 7,300 tanks [Russia] had in storage are gone. Of those that remain, only 500 can be reconditioned quickly. By April, Russia may run out of its T-80 tanks. Last year it lost twice as many artillery systems as in the preceding two years. … The reallocation of resources from productive sectors to the military complex has fueled double-digit inflation. Interest rates are 21 percent. A February 13 tweet on X/Twitter claimed that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had just said in Brussels that the United States was unprepared to face Russia – particularly at sea. In fact, the official transcript of the press conference does not back the claim that Hegseth said that, but the tweet garnered over eight million views – including a retweet by one Ukrainian activist who boasted: There is only one strong maritime power in the world. And that is Ukraine. Serhii sternenko That is a major exaggeration, of course. But it's a fact that Ukraine (which – don't forget – is still fighting the Russian invaders on land and sea after three years) has forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet into retreat – primarily through the use of sea drones. Those drones have also prevented Russia from enforcing a blockade on Ukrainian ports, ensuring the continued export of grain to global markets. The battle of the Black Sea has become one of Ukraine's most striking successes in its war against Russia. Despite lacking a formal navy, Ukraine has forced the Russian Black Sea fleet into continuous retreat, pushing it to relocate key assets far from occupied Crimea. Leveraging domestic-driven innovation and tactical ingenuity, Ukraine offers a blueprint to other David countries facing Goliath foes. Baltic states that fear they might be next on Vladimir Putin's invasion menu are very much aware of that – and so are Taiwanese concerned with countering a future Chinese invasion. 'We don't have as many human resources as Russia,' said Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine's deputy minister of digital transformation. 'They fight, they die, they send more people, they don't care – but that's not how we see war. For Ukraine's leaders, rapid technological innovation remains a top priority.' Ukraine's ability to outmaneuver Russia, arguably on land and beyond doubt at sea, hinges on relentless innovation. With Moscow introducing new weapons roughly every six months, Kyiv has had to develop and deploy countermeasures just as quickly. According to Kateryna Bezsudna, co-founder and CEO of Defense Builder, a Ukrainian defense tech startup accelerator, this cycle forces continuous adaptation and the rapid deployment of asymmetric solutions. Russia expected a swift win, envisioning a victory parade in Kyiv just weeks after launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Instead, as the war drags on, conditions have worsened for Moscow – most noticeably in the Black Sea. At the war's outset, Ukraine's navy was virtually nonexistent, having lost most of its fleet when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Its only major warship, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, was scuttled by Ukrainian forces in February 2022 to prevent its capture. Yet, through asymmetric warfare – naval drones, coastal strikes and aerial attacks –Ukraine has transformed the Black Sea battlefield, forcing Russia into retreat and reclaiming strategic control over its waters. Ukraine has focused on rebuilding its navy with a fleet of drones, making sea drones a cornerstone of its Black Sea strategy. When Russia attempted to blockade Ukrainian shipping, Ukraine quickly responded with sea drone strikes to neutralize the threat. Even after Russia's navy retreated from occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland, Ukrainian sea drones continued to pursue and strike Russian vessels. In August 2023, Ukraine launched a sea drone attack on Russia's Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, nearly 600 km from Odesa. By deploying unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), Ukraine has been able to inflict damage on Russian naval assets while minimizing risk to its personnel. Ukraine's sea drones have been engaging and striking Russian helicopters over the Black Sea. Ukrainian Magura V5 drones armed with heat-seeking missiles shot down two Russian Mi-8 helicopters and damaged a third off the coast of Crimea, Kyiv said, adding that it was the first time a naval drone had successfully targeted and knocked out an aircraft. The Ukrainian military has increasingly modified its sea drones for multi-role capabilities, adding missile launchers and other weapons to enhance their effectiveness. On January 5, Ukrainian USVs also launched kamikaze drones from the Black Sea, striking Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Kherson Oblast, each valued at $15–$20 million. Serhii Kuzan, chair of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and former adviser to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, noted that Russia is increasingly paranoid about protecting the symbolic Kerch Bridge from Ukrainian sea drones, allocating significant resources to its defense. 'Russia is using all available methods to safeguard the Crimean Bridge from destruction. This illegally constructed structure in temporarily occupied Crimea is critically important to Vladimir Putin and Russian logistics,' Kuzan explains. The Kerch Bridge, which connects the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula to the Russian mainland. Photo: Wikimedia Commons 'Moscow has built an extensive defense system around the bridge, including protection from both air and sea threats,' Kuzan notes. 'The primary challenge for the Ukrainian Armed Forces lies in the variety of air defense systems deployed. The Russians have established multiple layers of such defenses around the bridge.' 'Russia has fortified its defenses on the water with barges and boom barriers, along with constant naval and aerial patrols,' Kuzan explains. 'Helicopters, in particular, have been effective for some time against Ukraine's naval drones.' But that is changing now as Ukrainian sea drones have begun taking out Russian helicopters. Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said: 'Ukraine and many other navies around the world are incorporating different USV technologies and tactics into their operations. It's very likely that lessons learnt by Ukraine in this war when it comes to the use of different USVs will inform how the future Ukrainian navy will shape up.' The war in the Black Sea highlights how an asymmetrical strategy can reshape the balance of power. Despite having virtually no fleet, Ukraine has managed to cripple Russia's navy using limited resources. Grant Shapps, a former British Defense Secretary, called out Russian losses in the Black Sea last year: 'Putin's continued illegal occupation of Ukraine is exacting a massive cost on Russia's Black Sea Fleet which is now functionally inactive. Russia has sailed the Black Sea since 1783 but is now forced to constrain it's fleet to port. And even there Putin's ships are sinking!' Ukraine's continued innovation of drone warfare at sea is increasing pressure on the ground. Here's the latest from Crimea: 'An alert has been declared over the threat of unmanned surface vessel (USV) attacks near Cape Tarkhankut. Russian forces claim that the Ukrainian military is launching FPV drones from these vessels.' 'NATO, with its many maritime nations, includes states with limited naval forces – such as the Baltic countries,' Kuzan said. 'Ukraine's experience serves as an example of how these nations could enhance their capabilities to counter potential Russian aggression in the Baltic Sea.' Beyond smaller states, Ukraine's use of naval drones also presents critical insights for larger naval powers, which must now reassess their strategies due to emerging technologies. 'This war is also a lesson for larger naval powers, emphasizing the need to update their doctrines for naval warfare by analyzing the modern use of naval drones,' Kuzan explained. 'Understanding the advantages and threats of these technologies will allow them to effectively deploy or counter enemy naval drones in future conflicts.' Russia itself is trying to copy Ukrainian tactics. Taiwan has been closely watching Ukraine's innovations – and vice versa. 'Taiwan already benefits from US support and has its own advanced defense industry, which is testing both surface and underwater maritime drones,' Kuzan noted. One example is Taiwan's Smart Dragon underwater drone, which is reportedly equipped with torpedo systems. Taiwan's new 'Smart Dragon' unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). Image: X Screengrab 'Incorporating torpedoes into Ukrainian maritime drones could be the next step in their development,' Kuzan said. Taiwan excels in hardware production but struggles with design and system integration. However, ongoing joint ventures with US firms and government-backed initiatives aim to bridge these gaps. Kuzan also suggested that deeper military cooperation between Ukraine and Taiwan could be mutually beneficial. 'If the opportunity and necessity arise, Ukraine could potentially sell to, or exchange its military technologies with, Taiwan,' he said. 'This would allow both countries to enhance their capabilities.' Taiwan faces a fundamentally different security landscape compared with Ukraine – particularly due to its legislative politics and defense posture – according to Treston Wheat, chief geopolitical officer at Insight Forward, a geopolitical risks consultancy, and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. 'The legislature leans more pro-Chinese and is planning to cut the defense budget in 2025,' Wheat explained. 'Additionally, much of Taiwan's defense strategy has focused on holding off China long enough for the US to establish its position.' This hesitation extends to asymmetric warfare tactics, an area where Ukraine has excelled in countering a larger adversary. 'Taiwan is significantly less inclined than Ukraine to pursue an asymmetric approach,' Wheat noted. 'While there are valuable lessons from Ukraine on integrating modern technologies like drones, they are unlikely to be implemented.' Yet, as Taiwan prepares for a potential conflict with China, analysts believe that embracing asymmetric warfare and drone technology is crucial—a lesson reinforced by Ukraine's successes in the Black Sea. A recent report from the Center for Naval Analyses emphasized the importance of drones in countering superior forces, urging Taiwan to dramatically scale up its production of unmanned systems. While Taiwan has begun expanding its drone capabilities—forming a National Drone Team and developing an unmanned 'kill chain' — its projected stock of 3,200 drones by 2028 pales in comparison with Ukraine's 100,000 drones acquired in 2023 and its one-million-drone production goal for 2024. Kevin Pollpeter, the report's lead author, stresses that Taiwan must think bigger, particularly by integrating uncrewed surface and underwater vessels to disrupt a Chinese amphibious assault. Taiwan may not yet fully embrace the asymmetric strategies that have defined Ukraine's success in the Black Sea, but the lessons are clear. As unmanned systems reshape naval warfare, smaller states confronting powerful adversaries must recognize that innovation under pressure—rather than sheer force – will be key to their survival, just as Ukraine has demonstrated to the world. Meanwhile, Whatever comes of war-ending negotiations, starting with President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington scheduled for Febuary 28, it's important to remember that Ukraine has not been beaten. Far from it, the country is still fighting valiantly three years after Putin's invasion. David Kirichenko is a Ukrainian-American reporter-activist and security engineer who carries along bags of donated weaponry when he embeds with Ukrainian troops at the frontlines. He's also an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. Follow him on X /Twitter @DVKirichenko The author with members of the Ukrainian unit Yasni Ochi after returning from a night drone bombing mission in Chasiv Yar last summer. Source: David Kirichenko This is an updated and expanded version of an article published earlier by Pacific Forum.
