The Trump test, Democrats' future and big money: Three things to watch in New Jersey's primaries

NBC News

19 hours ago

New Jersey voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday to pick nominees for this year's race for governor, in the first high-profile primaries for both parties since the 2024 election.
New Jersey is one of two states with a gubernatorial race this year, along with Virginia. And both contests will be closely watched as early indicators of how voters are responding to President Donald Trump's second term.
Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy cannot run for re-election due to term limits, so there are contested races for both parties' nominations. Candidates and groups have spent $85 million on ads this year in both primaries, according to to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, with more than $75 million spent in the Democratic primary alone.
As Democrats nationally have tried to regroup following Trump's 2024 victory, where he also narrowed his margin of victory in bluer states like New Jersey, the six Democratic candidates have presented different paths forward for their party. And the race is still unsettled heading into the primary.
On the Republican side, five candidates are on the ballot — but former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, whom Trump endorsed in mid-May, is viewed as the front-runner.
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Here are three things to watch as voters make their choices.
Which path will Democrats choose?
The crowded Democratic primary remains the most unpredictable race New Jersey has seen in decades, in part because county parties can no longer give advantageous ballot positions to their preferred candidates, following a lawsuit from Democrat Andy Kim during his Senate run last year. The suit weakened the state's party machines and contributed to a wide-open contest.
As Democratic voters in New Jersey have evaluated the candidates, some have prioritized electability, raising concerns that Ciattarelli will be tough to beat in November. The former state legislator lost to Murphy in 2021 by 3 percentage points. And Trump also made gains in the state last year, losing by 6, a 10-point improvement on his 2020 margin, which was the second-largest swing toward Trump in the country. Democratic voters also say they are looking for a candidate to take on Trump.
Against that backdrop, each Democrat has been pitching a different path forward for their party, and Tuesday's primary will be Democratic voters' first major opportunity to weigh in on which path they should take.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill has been viewed as the relative front-runner after leading in limited public polling, although candidates are often clustered together within the margin of error.
Sherrill has leveraged the party's successful playbook from the 2018 midterm elections, when she and other Democrats flipped Republican-held House seats. She has emphasized her background as a Navy helicopter pilot and a federal prosecutor in her pitch as someone who can effectively govern and take on Trump.
Sherrill has faced recent attacks for her House campaign accepting donations from a corporate PAC tied to Elon Musk's SpaceX, and for being late to disclose two stock trades related to her husband's work. Sherrill's House campaign donated the PAC money to charity. She also paid a fine for the late disclosure and supports a stock trading ban for members of Congress.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka has been pitching himself as the true progressive in the race who's willing to take on the president. He garnered national attention when he was arrested last month at a federal immigration detention facility. (The charges were later dropped, and Baraka is now suing New Jersey U.S. Attorney Alina Habba in response.)
The attention has given Baraka's campaign a last-minute boost, with recent fundraising reports showing that his campaign raised $962,000 in the 17 days following the arrest, more than twice as much as his next closest Democratic competitor.
Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop is also appealing to the party's liberal voters, describing his supporters as 'pragmatic progressive' voters. Fulop has been running an anti-establishment campaign, criticizing the state's Democratic political machine and Murphy, whom he described at a recent campaign stop as a 'sub-average' governor.
Teachers' union president Sean Spiller has said he also considers himself a progressive and has criticized those in his party who he says are backed by wealthy corporate interests. Spiller himself has been boosted by Working New Jersey, a super PAC funded by the New Jersey Education Association, which Spiller leads.
Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer, one of the more moderate members of Congress, has been pitching an economic-focused message, saying he will work to bring down the state's high cost of living.
And former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, who lost re-election in 2021 to an underfunded GOP challenger, has argued that he is best equipped to lead the state government given his legislative experience. Sweeney, who is also stressing his blue-collar roots as a former ironworker, could have a geographic advantage as the only candidate from South Jersey.
How influential is Trump's endorsement?
The GOP primary will be a key test for Trump's endorsement and determine whether the president has helped consolidate his supporters around Ciattarelli, his preferred candidate in the race.
Ciattarelli sharply criticized then-candidate Trump in 2015, calling him a 'charlatan' and unfit to be president, and he notably did not campaign with Trump when he ran for governor in 2021. Trump knocked Ciattarelli for failing to do so in a radio appearance last year with Ciattarelli's chief competitor in the GOP primary, Bill Spadea.
'This guy never came to ask for my support,' Trump said then of Ciattarelli. 'And you know what, when MAGA sees that, they don't like it and they didn't vote for him. He would have won easily if he did.'
Spadea also asked for Trump's endorsement in the race, and the possibility that Trump would take sides in the primary loomed over the contest for months.
The president ultimately endorsed Ciattarelli on May 12, writing on Truth Social that Ciattarelli is now '100%' MAGA and is best positioned to win in November.
Ciattarelli, for his part, now says he fully supports Trump and dismissed his past comments in an April interview with NBC News, noting other Republicans (including Vice President JD Vance) have criticized Trump in the past.
The primary could also shed light on the size of the anti-Trump wing of the GOP in New Jersey, with state Sen. Jon Bramnick in the race. Bramnick, a longtime state legislator who is also a standup comedian, has called for a return to civility, and he has sharply criticized Trump in the past.
Two other candidates are also on the Republican primary ballot: former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, a a self-described 'forever Trumper' who has been endorsed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and contractor Justin Barbera.
Will the millions of dollars matter?
Tuesday's primaries in New Jersey will also test outside groups' influence as they've spent millions of dollars in the pricey New York and Philadelphia media markets to reach Garden State voters.
The pro-Spiller super PAC Working New Jersey, which is tied to the state's teachers' union, had spent a whopping $35 million on the race as of May 27, according to the latest campaign finance reports, while Spiller's campaign itself had spent $342,000. The group has spent $12.1 million on ads this year, according to AdImpact.
That ad-spending sum was surpassed only by Affordable New Jersey, a super PAC supporting Gottheimer, which was funded largely by transfers from Gottheimer's congressional campaign. That group has spent $14.8 million on the airwaves.
Fulop has also gotten a boost by a super PAC called Coalition for Progress, which has spent $8.1 million on ads this year. Sherrill's aligned super PAC, One Giant Leap PAC, has dropped nearly $5.9 million on the airwaves, largely over the last month of the race.
Ciattarelli has had a financial advantage in the GOP primary, spending $6 million on ads, compared to Spadea's $1.7 million and Bramnick's $1.2 million, according to AdImpact. Both Ciattarelli and Spadea have also gotten boosts from super PACs, but both groups have spent less than $1 million on ads in the race.