Anti-Trump Bump Rekindles Support for Brazil's President
Then entered President Trump.
Mr. Trump's threat last week of 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian exports as a way of saving his ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro, from possible imprisonment, has reshuffled Brazil's political landscape, giving President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva an unexpected boost.
With Mr. Trump and his politically motivated tariffs as a foil, Mr. Lula suddenly has a clear message: We will not back down to a bully. His stance is drawing praise in the press, going viral online and giving his supporters new hope that Mr. Lula could win a fourth term next year, days before he turns 80.
They have reason to be optimistic: days after Mr. Trump's tariff threats, Mr. Lula's approval ratings rose to their highest level in months. New polls showed that 43 to 50 percent of Brazilians approved of his performance, up three to five percentage points since May.
'It was a stroke of luck for the president,' said Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning, a research institution. 'This strengthens him a lot.'
The shift in public opinion is yet another example of the anti-Trump bump, a global phenomenon that has reshaped elections in Canada, Australia and elsewhere by supercharging support for politicians who defy the U.S. president.
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Yahoo
3 minutes ago
- Yahoo
How gerrymandering has reshaped the political map for red and blue states
The redistricting battle gripping Texas has put a spotlight on the ongoing debate over gerrymandering and its long-term effects on the electorate. Sam Wang, the founding director of the Electoral Innovation Lab and the creator of the Gerrymandering Project , a research lab focused on creating the most fair district maps, told ABC News that state leaders from both sides of the aisle have changed election boundaries to make it stacked with constituents who vote in their favor. In the last 20 years, with access to advanced computer algorithms, those gerrymandering attempts have become more egregious as whole counties have been divided up with pinpoint precision, resulting in districts with areas with outlandish shapes, he said. "Gerrymander is partisanship maximized above all of the other things," Wang said. The practice was first identified and coined in 1812 when Massachusetts Gov. Elbridge Gerry signed a bill that redrew the state's congressional maps to benefit the Democratic-Republican party. Maps are typically redrawn at the beginning of each decade to reflect changes in the population from the latest census. Kareem Crayton, the vice president of the Washington D.C. office of the Brennan Center for Justice, who has spent years researching redistricting, told ABC News the redistricting campaigns since the 2000s have led to a systemic cycle of gerrymandering, especially in the South. MORE: Texas redistricting: What's at stake as Republicans aim to pick up 5 House seats "States like Florida and Texas have the worst examples of gerrymandering," he said. But Crayton also pointed out that states with Democratic majorities, like Illinois, have responded with their own maps that also skew districts in their favor, leading to an endless cycle. "All of these states are looking around at each other like 'The Good, the Bad and the Ugly' thinking who's going to fire first," he said, referring to the Western film. "There is no sheriff in town saying this is not helping everyone." While Republican and Democratic leaders in those states have contended they are redrawing their maps to adequately reflect their communities, Wang said the math and geography aren't backing their arguments. Wang's lab created a mathematical algorithm that creates district maps using key demographic factors. Racial demographics from the Census, environmental and geographic information from local data and other public sources are used to create district maps that remove political bias. Those maps are then compared to the district maps currently in place. "That tells us what someone who didn't care about political parties would do," he explained. "We have harnessed the power of computer simulation to see what would be neutral." Texas is one of the 15 states in the map that earned an F grade based on the Gerrymander Project's formula. Although the state legislature and congressional delegation are led by a Republican majority, Texas's current districting map is divided in a way that gives the GOP an advantage, according to the project. The analysis shows that the redistricting negates a challenging vote. Travis County, for example, includes the city of Austin, which has leaned Democratic, but the county includes five congressional districts around it. By not including Austin in the suburban areas, the congressional district will lean Republican, according to the analysis. The Gerrymander Project's analysis found that the county splits in Texas, which is the number of districts within a single county, are higher than the average split per state, based on its analysis. MORE: Video Michigan citizens take on gerrymandering with redrawn congressional map For example, more dense Dallas County is home to five congressional districts, and two of the districts' boundaries extend into the next county. Such division leads to confusion among voters as to what their district is, according to Crayton. Crayton said that such county splits have led to more examples of elected officials running unopposed. "If you're a candidate from an opposing party, you're going to have an uphill battle trying to run in a district where the majority of the voters are registered to the majority," he said. "We've seen it happen all of the time where a Democrat or Republican simply won't put the time and effort to run because the gerrymandered district puts the odds against them," Crayton said. Although the majority of the states that got the project's F grade are in the South and show more of a Republican advantage, the experts warned that blue states in other parts of the country have used gerrymandering as well. Illinois, which is one of the Midwest states with an F grade, is the prime example, they said. Its current map, which was adopted in 2021, contains non-compact districts, which leads to unequal voter density per area, and more county splits than the average, according to the Gerrymander Project. One egregious example is the state's 13th congressional district, which covers a nearly 2,300 square mile boundary that extends from its southern point near the border with Missouri to Springfield, right in the center of the state, and then east to the city of Champaign. The boundaries keep a huge concentration of Democratic leaning voters, according to the Gerrymander Project. Wang noted that the Supreme Court's 2019 decision that ruled gerrymandering for party advantage cannot be challenged in federal court has removed key guardrails for preventing states from taking part in severe party redistricting. The case involved gerrymandering allegations in North Carolina, and while the court's majority ruled that the practice may be "incompatible with democratic principles," federal courts had no jurisdiction in reviewing those cases. Wang said that most states have taken gerrymandering to their limit and made it extremely hard for state legislatures to revert their boundaries to more fair areas. MORE: Redistricting battles in Texas and elsewhere: Will courts play a role?: ANALYSIS "The lemon has been squeezed dry," he said. However, Wang noted that gerrymandering cases have prompted the public to speak out and take action to turn the tide and rein in gerrymandering in some key states. Virginia, for example, used a special master in 2022 to draw up its current maps following a court case brought by the state's constituents and some local elected officials. The court ordered the special master to create district maps to adhere to federal requirements of population equality, the Voting Rights Act mandates, state constitution and statutes in its districting process. As a result of its changes, the state, which has a slight Democratic majority in its state legislature, has no partisan competitiveness in its congressional districts, according to the Gerrymander Project, which awarded Virigina an A rating. The district's geography is "Fairly compact" and has the national average number of county splits, according to the project's analysis. Wang said ballot initiatives that removed the legislature from the districting process have risen in popularity in many states and have made a huge difference. Arizona, which also has an A rating by the project, has been using an independent redistricting commission after voters passed a ballot initiative in 2000 that changed state regulations. The state, which has a Republican majority in its state legislature, does not have a partisan advantage in its state districts, according to the Gerrymandering Project. Its districts are seen as "fairly compact" and are the average number of county splits, according to the analysis. Crayton and Wang said the state-run solutions to redistricting are a good step forward, but ultimately, it is going to take Congressional legislation to end partisan influence in these maps. Wang said that public opinion has consistently shown that constituents seek fair maps regardless of their political affiliations. "If Congress were to really pursue it, it could be bipartisan and get a lot of support," he said of legislation that prohibited gerrymandering tactics. "And we've seen it work."
Yahoo
3 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Fed check-in: Waller reportedly top Chair pick, rate cut outlook
Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller is reportedly the top pick for Fed chair among President Trump's team, according to Bloomberg. Fed Watch Advisors founder and chief investment officer Ben Emons and StoneX senior adviser Jon Hilsenrath join Market Catalysts with Julie Hyman to discuss. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has emerged as Trump officials' top pick to replace Fed chair Jerome Powell. That's according to report from Bloomberg. Waller has met with several members of the administration. He's not yet spoken with President Trump himself though. Of course, it's not a done deal. Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, and Kevin Hassett, currently Trump's National Economic Council director, are reportedly both still in the running. Joining me now, Ben Emmens, Fed Watch Advisors founder and chief investment officer, and John Hilsenrath, Stone X senior advisor and Yahoo Finance contributor. It does seem like and there were some reporting from Wall Street Journal today that the administration is leaning towards appointing someone to fill Adriana Kugler's seat that could then move into the Fed chair spot. Ben, I'll start with you. What do what do you make of this latest reporting on Waller sort of maybe, maybe being the front runner, at least today? Yeah, I think that he is a front runner, but he has said himself that because the president hasn't reached out to him, you know, he doesn't know for sure. And you know, he really wants to do the job. So he's clearly keen to do it. Um, but it's all the speculation around this actual chair, I think it's by far not determined because they have to fill the Adriana Kugler position first, which kind of procedural how they have to go about it. This new Fed chair or Fed member will be only in place for October meeting, not a September meeting because of the the specifics of the Senate confirmation. Yet, that position is key because it's an additional vote at the table for cutting rates. And it looks like a lot of Fed members are ready, like, moving in a direction of like we'll probably have to lower rates in September. So, it just only fuels more the rate cut speculation. I think this debate about who will be the next chair. But who will it be? That's, I think, still a guessing game. And Trump has his time, but I mean, once he puts the replacement for Kugler in place, he could take his time, that's been reported. Right. And John, what do you make it? I mean, it feels like the market is relatively comfortable with a Warsh or a Waller potentially in place here. Uh, the market seems very comfortable with a lot, uh, that's going on in the macro setting right now. Stock prices are rising, interest rates are low, but I don't think that the drama, uh, over this succession is going to end very quickly. And, you know, today we get a headline that it's that it's Waller, tomorrow we might get a headline that it's Warsh again. Uh, I'm really going to believe it when I see it, especially when the president hasn't had one-on-one time with Waller. Let's not forget that Jay Powell was a sitting Fed governor that the president chose, and he ended up becoming very unhappy with Jay Powell. The president said something the other day that sometimes you think someone is great and then he gets in the job and you're not so sure. So I I I think that we're we're moving into maybe the second or third round of this apprentice, uh, campaign and there there might be 10 episodes before the season is over. I I mean, Ben, does it, you know, what we were saying here about the changing expectations for what's going to happen with rate cuts, does that make it not moot, certainly who is the head of the Fed, but the whole politicization conversation, it seems like that comes off the boil if there are real economic underpinnings and reasons for the Fed to cut rates, right? Yeah, I think so, Julie, because it is a story about inflation, unemployment ultimately. So the reaction to this job support on Friday is telling. The Fed is quite concerned if the unemployment rate goes up too quickly and will act faster than if inflation were to go up a little bit. And they just sort of wait and see what happens with inflation before they do anything. So it is really a point here where we may repeat what happened last year in September when they surprised with 50 base points of a rate cut. It's not in markets currently, but if the unemployment rate goes up a little further from here, that becomes a a real possibility because I think the Fed does not want its forecast of 4.5% unemployment to actually materialize. They want to put in place an insurance to make sure that that actually doesn't happen. So this is really a rate cut speculation ultimately, I think. And it is more notable, as we talked at previous time, that how the tone starts to shift from one Fed member to the other member. Like I wrote today, like dominoes, like it sort of goes from one to the other. You have Muesselem today is kind of hawkish, he may have a different tone. You have Golsby next week, he's also voting member, he may start changing his tone, too. Before you know it, we have a full majority of Fed members ready to cut rates before the meeting starts. So I think that's how it plays out. Yeah. And John, we haven't had a chance to talk since the jobs report, which, as we know, came out worse than estimated. We got CPI also coming next week, which could be really telling here. So, what do you think all of this means for September? Well, I I think the market's getting ahead of itself, frankly. Uh, I think, you know, to me, the key comments that came out from the Fed since that jobs report was John Williams, who is part of Jay Powell's inner circle. And he said, in his view, the job market was still relatively solid, and they want to see more data before they make a decision. I think that the, you know, the Fed doesn't want to get pinned down to September. I think they certainly don't want to get pinned down to 50 basis points in September. Look, they did that last year, and it seems to have been a mistake. They seems to have moved too aggressively last year because inflation stopped falling. Literally, the month that the Fed uh did that 50 basis point cut, that was the low point for inflation so far in this cycle. So, you know, I think we're one bad inflation print away from them saying, "Oh, well, wait a second, you know, maybe we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves on this rate cut talk." Well, we'll see what CPI says next week. And lest we forget, we will hear from Chair Powell in Jackson Hole uh later this month as well. Ben, John, got to leave it there. Thank you so much. Related Videos Crypto stock boost, Toyota guidance cut, Zillow revenue beat Miran Talks Trump's Tariffs, Exemptions and Waller Trump to sign EO allowing crypto in 401(k)s: What it means for markets This could be Wall Street's next hot trade Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Los Angeles Times
4 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Powerful labor coalition backs redrawing California's congressional map in fight with Texas and Trump
One of California's most influential labor organizations endorsed redrawing the state's congressional maps to counter President Trump's effort to push Republican states, notably Texas, to increase his party's numbers in Congress in next year's midterm election. The California Federation of Labor Unions voted unanimously Tuesday to support putting a measure on the ballot in November. The proposal, backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom and many of the state's Democratic leaders, would ask voters to temporarily change congressional district boundaries that were drawn by an independent redistricting commission four years ago, with some conditions. Republicans could potentially lose up to a half dozen seats in California's 52-member delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives. After it returns for its summer recess on Aug. 18, the California Legislature is expected to vote to place the measure on the statewide ballot in a special election. 'President Trump has said that Republicans are 'entitled' to five more congressional votes in Texas. Well, they aren't entitled to steal the 2026 election. California's unions refuse to stand by as democracy is tested,' Lorena Gonzalez, president of the federation, said in a statement. 'California Labor is unified in our resolve to fight back against President Trump's anti-worker agenda.' Redistricting — the esoteric redrawing of the nation's 435 congressional districts — typically occurs once every decade after the U.S. census tallies the population across the nation. Population shifts can result in changes in a state's allocation of congressional seats, such as when California lost a seat after the 2020 census the first time in the state's history. The political redistricting process had long been crafted by elected officials to give their political parties an edge or to protect incumbents — sometimes in brazen, bizarrely shaped districts. Californians voted in 2010 to create an independent commission to draw congressional maps based on communities of interest, logical geography and ensuring representation of minority communities. The ballot measure being pushed by Newsom and others would allow state lawmakers to help determine district boundaries for the next three election cycles if Texas approves a pending measure to reconfigure districts to increase Republican-held congressional seats in that state. Line-drawing would return to the independent commission after the 2030 census. The California Federation of Labor is committed to spending several million dollars supporting a mid-decade redistricting ballot measure, on top of what it already planned to spend on competitive congressional races next year, according to a person familiar with the plans who asked for anonymity to speak candidly about the strategy. A spokesperson for several organizations devoted to fighting any effort to change the state's redistricting process said that Charles Munger Jr., the son of a billionaire, and who bankrolled the ballot measure to create the independent commission, is committed to making sure it is not weakened. 'While Charles Munger has been out of politics since 2016, he has said he will vigorously defend the reforms he helped pass, including nonpartisan redistricting,' said Amy Thoma, spokesperson for the Voters First Coalition. 'His previous success in passing ballot measures in California means he knows exactly what is needed to be successful. We will have the resources necessary to make our coalition heard.'
